Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Adaptive changes in a radial maze task: Efficient selection of baited arms with reduced foraging in senescent hooded rats

Qualitative differences in strategy selection during foraging in a partially baited maze were assessed in young and old rats. The baited and non-baited arms were at a fixed position in space and marked by a specific olfactory cue. The senescent rats did more re-entries during the first four-trial block but were more rapid than the young rats in selecting the reinforced arms during the first visits. Dissociation between the olfactory spatial cue reference by rotating the maze revealed that only few old subjects relied on olfactory cues to select the baited arms and the remainder relied mainly on the visuo-spatial cues.

APOE status modulates the changes in network connectivity induced by brain stimulation in non-demented elders.

Behavioral consequences of a brain insult represent an interaction between the injury and the capacity of the rest of the brain to adapt to it. We provide experimental support for the notion that genetic factors play a critical role in such adaptation. We induced a controlled brain disruption using repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) and show that APOE status determines its impact on distributed brain networks as assessed by functional MRI (fMRI).Twenty non-demented elders exhibiting mild memory dysfunction underwent two fMRI studies during face-name encoding tasks (before and after rTMS). Baseline task performance was associated with activation of a network of brain regions in prefrontal, parietal, medial temporal and visual associative areas. APOE ε4 bearers exhibited this pattern in two separate independent components, whereas ε4-non carriers presented a single partially overlapping network. Following rTMS all subjects showed slight ameliorations in memory performance, regardless of APOE status. However, after rTMS APOE ε4-carriers showed significant changes in brain network activation, expressing strikingly similar spatial configuration as the one observed in the non-carrier group prior to stimulation. Similarly, activity in areas of the default-mode network (DMN) was found in a single component among the ε4-non bearers, whereas among carriers it appeared disaggregated in three distinct spatiotemporal components that changed to an integrated single component after rTMS. Our findings demonstrate that genetic background play a fundamental role in the brain responses to focal insults, conditioning expression of distinct brain networks to sustain similar cognitive performance.

Morphological, hydrological, biogeochemical and ecological changes and challenges in river restoration - the Thur River case study

River restoration can enhance river dynamics, environmental heterogeneity and biodiversity, but the underlying processes governing the dynamic changes need to be understood to ensure that restoration projects meet their goals, and adverse effects are prevented. In particular, we need to comprehend how hydromorphological variability quantitatively relates to ecosystem functioning and services, biodiversity as well as ground-and surface water quality in restored river corridors. This involves (i) physical processes and structural properties, determining erosion and sedimentation, as well as solute and heat transport behavior in surface water and within the subsurface; (ii) biogeochemical processes and characteristics, including the turnover of nutrients and natural water constituents; and (iii) ecological processes and indicators related to biodiversity and ecological functioning. All these aspects are interlinked, requiring an interdisciplinary investigation approach. Here, we present an overview of the recently completed RECORD (REstored CORridor Dynamics) project in which we combined physical, chemical, and biological observations with modeling at a restored river corridor of the perialpine Thur River in Switzerland. Our results show that river restoration, beyond inducing morphologic changes that reshape the river bed and banks, triggered complex spatial patterns of bank infiltration, and affected habitat type, biotic communities and biogeochemical processes. We adopted an interdisciplinary approach of monitoring the continuing changes due to restoration measures to address the following questions: How stable is the morphological variability established by restoration? Does morphological variability guarantee an improvement in biodiversity? How does morphological variability affect biogeochemical transformations in the river corridor? What are some potential adverse effects of river restoration? How is river restoration influenced by catchment-scale hydraulics [GRAPHICS] and which feedbacks exist on the large scale? Beyond summarizing the major results of individual studies within the project, we show that these overarching questions could only be addressed in an interdisciplinary framework.

Biotic interactions boost spatial models of species richness

Biotic interactions are known to affect the composition of species assemblages via several mechanisms, such as competition and facilitation. However, most spatial models of species richness do not explicitly consider inter-specific interactions. Here, we test whether incorporating biotic interactions into high-resolution models alters predictions of species richness as hypothesised. We included key biotic variables (cover of three dominant arctic-alpine plant species) into two methodologically divergent species richness modelling frameworks - stacked species distribution models (SSDM) and macroecological models (MEM) - for three ecologically and evolutionary distinct taxonomic groups (vascular plants, bryophytes and lichens). Predictions from models including biotic interactions were compared to the predictions of models based on climatic and abiotic data only. Including plant-plant interactions consistently and significantly lowered bias in species richness predictions and increased predictive power for independent evaluation data when compared to the conventional climatic and abiotic data based models. Improvements in predictions were constant irrespective of the modelling framework or taxonomic group used. The global biodiversity crisis necessitates accurate predictions of how changes in biotic and abiotic conditions will potentially affect species richness patterns. Here, we demonstrate that models of the spatial distribution of species richness can be improved by incorporating biotic interactions, and thus that these key predictor factors must be accounted for in biodiversity forecasts

A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Persistent spatial clusters of high body mass index in a Swiss urban population as revealed by the 5-year GeoCoLaus longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: Body mass index (BMI) may cluster in space among adults and be spatially dependent. Whether and how BMI clusters evolve over time in a population is currently unknown. We aimed to determine the spatial dependence of BMI and its 5-year evolution in a Swiss general adult urban population, taking into account the neighbourhood-level and individual-level characteristics. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Swiss general urban population. PARTICIPANTS: 6481 georeferenced individuals from the CoLaus cohort at baseline (age range 35-74 years, period=2003-2006) and 4460 at follow-up (period=2009-2012). OUTCOME MEASURES: Body weight and height were measured by trained healthcare professionals with participants standing without shoes in light indoor clothing. BMI was calculated as weight (kg) divided by height squared (m(2)). Participants were geocoded using their postal address (geographic coordinates of the place of residence). Getis-Ord Gi statistic was used to measure the spatial dependence of BMI values at baseline and its evolution at follow-up. RESULTS: BMI was not randomly distributed across the city. At baseline and at follow-up, significant clusters of high versus low BMIs were identified and remained stable during the two periods. These clusters were meaningfully attenuated after adjustment for neighbourhood-level income but not individual-level characteristics. Similar results were observed among participants who showed a significant weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report longitudinal changes in BMI clusters in adults from a general population. Spatial clusters of high BMI persisted over a 5-year period and were mainly influenced by neighbourhood-level income.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them

Environmental factors, spatial variation, and specific requirements of Chironomidae in Mediterranean reference streams

Chironomidae spatial distribution was investigated at 63 near-pristine sites in 22 catchments of the Iberian Mediterranean coast. We used partial redundancy analysis to study Chironomidae community responses to a number of environmental factors acting at several spatial scales. The percentage of variation explained by local factors (23.3%) was higher than that explained by geographical (8.5%) or regional factors(8%). Catchment area, longitude, pH, % siliceous rocks in the catchment, and altitude were the best predictors of Chironomidae assemblages. We used a k-means cluster analysis to classified sites into 3 major groups based on Chironomidae assemblages. These groups were explained mainly by longitudinal zonation and geographical position, and were defined as 1) siliceous headwater streams, 2) mid-altitude streams with small catchment areas, and 3) medium-sized calcareous streams. Distinct species assemblages with associated indicator taxa were established for each stream category using IndVal analysis. Species responses to previously identified key environmental variables were determined, and optima and tolerances were established by weighted average regression. Distinct ecological requirements were observed among genera and among species of the same genus. Some genera were restricted to headwater systems (e.g., Diamesa), whereas others (e.g., Eukiefferiella) had wider ecological preferences but with distinct distributions among congenerics. In the present period of climate change, optima and tolerances of species might be a useful tool to predict responses of different species to changes in significant environmental variables, such as temperature and hydrology.

“IT’S ALL RIGHT”. Multimodal rightward spatial bias modified by age and praxis

The general goal of the present work was to study whether spatial perceptual asymmetry initially observed in linguistic dichotic listening studies is related to the linguistic nature of the stimuli and/or is modality-specific, as well as to investigate whether the spatial perceptual/attentional asymmetry changes as a function of age and sensory deficit via praxis. Several dichotic listening studies with linguistic stimuli have shown that the inherent perceptual right ear advantage (REA), which presumably results from the left lateralized linguistic functions (bottom-up processes), can be modified with executive functions (top-down control). Executive functions mature slowly during childhood, are well developed in adulthood, and decline as a function of ageing. In Study I, the purpose was to investigate with a cross-sectional experiment from a lifespan perspective the age-related changes in top-down control of REA for linguistic stimuli in dichotic listening with a forced-attention paradigm (DL). In Study II, the aim was to determine whether the REA is linguistic-stimulus-specific or not, and whether the lifespan changes in perceptual asymmetry observed in dichotic listening would exist also in auditory spatial attention tasks that put load on attentional control. In Study III, using visual spatial attention tasks, mimicking the auditory tasks applied in Study II, it was investigated whether or not the stimulus-non-specific rightward spatial bias found in auditory modality is a multimodal phenomenon. Finally, as it has been suggested that the absence of visual input in blind participants leads to improved auditory spatial perceptual and cognitive skills, the aim in Study IV was to determine, whether blindness modifies the ear advantage in DL. Altogether 180-190 right-handed participants between 5 and 79 years of age were studied in Studies I to III, and in Study IV the performance of 14 blind individuals was compared with that of 129 normally sighted individuals. The results showed that only rightward spatial bias was observed in tasks with intensive attentional load, independent of the type of stimuli (linguistic vs. non-linguistic) or the modality (auditory vs. visual). This multimodal rightward spatial bias probably results from a complex interaction of asymmetrical perceptual, attentional, and/or motor mechanisms. Most importantly, the strength of the rightward spatial bias changed as a function of age and augmented praxis due to sensory deficit. The efficiency of the performance in spatial attention tasks and the ability to overcome the rightward spatial bias increased during childhood, was at its best in young adulthood, and decreased as a function of ageing. Between the ages of 5 and 11 years probably at first develops movement and impulse control, followed by the gradual development of abilities to inhibit distractions and disengage attention. The errors especially in bilateral stimulus conditions suggest that a mild phenomenon resembling extinction can be observed throughout the lifespan, but especially the ability to distribute attention to multiple targets simultaneously decreases in the course of ageing. Blindness enhances the processing of auditory bilateral linguistic stimuli, the ability to overcome a stimulus-driven laterality effect related to speech sound perception, and the ability to direct attention to an appropriate spatial location. It was concluded that the ability to voluntarily suppress and inhibit the multimodal rightward spatial bias changes as a function of age and praxis due to sensory deficit and probably reflects the developmental level of executive functions.

Disturbance and ecosystem functioning : the role of changes in benthic biological traits

Rapid changes in biodiversity are occurring globally, as a consequence of anthropogenic disturbance. This has raised concerns, since biodiversity is known to significantly contribute to ecosystem functions and services. Marine benthic communities participate in numerous functions provided by soft-sedimentary ecosystems. Eutrophication-induced oxygen deficiency is a growing threat against infaunal communities, both in open sea areas and in coastal zones. There is thus a need to understand how such disturbance affects benthic communities, and what is lost in terms of ecosystem functioning if benthic communities are harmed. In this thesis, the status of benthic biodiversity was assessed for the open Baltic Sea, a system severely affected by broad-scale hypoxia. Long-term monitoring data made it possible to establish quantitative biodiversity baselines against which change could be compared. The findings show that benthic biodiversity is currently severely impaired in large areas of the open Baltic Sea, from the Bornholm Basin to the Gulf of Finland. The observed reduction in biodiversity indicates that benthic communities are structurally and functionally impoverished in several of the sub-basins due to the hypoxic stress. A more detailed examination of disturbance impacts (through field studies and -experiments) on benthic communities in coastal areas showed that changes in benthic community structure and function took place well before species were lost from the system. The degradation of benthic community structure and function was directed by the type of disturbance, and its specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The observed shifts in benthic trait composition were primarily the result of reductions in species’ abundances, or of changes in demographic characteristics, such as the loss of large, adult bivalves. Reduction in community functions was expressed as declines in the benthic bioturbation potential and in secondary biomass production. The benthic communities and their degradation accounted for a substantial proportion of the changes observed in ecosystem multifunctionality. Individual ecosystem functions (i.e. measures of sediment ecosystem metabolism, elemental cycling, biomass production, organic matter transformation and physical structuring) were observed to differ in their response to increasing hypoxic disturbance. Interestingly, the results suggested that an impairment of ecosystem functioning could be detected at an earlier stage if multiple functions were considered. Importantly, the findings indicate that even small-scale hypoxic disturbance can reduce the buffering capacity of sedimentary ecosystem, and increase the susceptibility of the system towards further stress. Although the results of the individual papers are context-dependent, their combined outcome implies that healthy benthic communities are important for sustaining overall ecosystem functioning as well as ecosystem resilience in the Baltic Sea.

Spatial multicriteria decision analysis for the siting of on-shore wind power in Kemiönsaari

Wind power is a low-carbon energy production form that reduces the dependence of society on fossil fuels. Finland has adopted wind energy production into its climate change mitigation policy, and that has lead to changes in legislation, guidelines, regional wind power areas allocation and establishing a feed-in tariff. Wind power production has indeed boosted in Finland after two decades of relatively slow growth, for instance from 2010 to 2011 wind energy production increased with 64 %, but there is still a long way to the national goal of 6 TWh by 2020. This thesis introduces a GIS-based decision-support methodology for the preliminary identification of suitable areas for wind energy production including estimation of their level of risk. The goal of this study was to define the least risky places for wind energy development within Kemiönsaari municipality in Southwest Finland. Spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) has been used for searching suitable wind power areas along with many other location-allocation problems. SMCDA scrutinizes complex ill-structured decision problems in GIS environment using constraints and evaluation criteria, which are aggregated using weighted linear combination (WLC). Weights for the evaluation criteria were acquired using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with nine expert interviews. Subsequently, feasible alternatives were ranked in order to provide a recommendation and finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted for the determination of recommendation robustness. The first study aim was to scrutinize the suitability and necessity of existing data for this SMCDA study. Most of the available data sets were of sufficient resolution and quality. Input data necessity was evaluated qualitatively for each data set based on e.g. constraint coverage and attribute weights. Attribute quality was estimated mainly qualitatively by attribute comprehensiveness, operationality, measurability, completeness, decomposability, minimality and redundancy. The most significant quality issue was redundancy as interdependencies are not tolerated by WLC and AHP does not include measures to detect them. The third aim was to define the least risky areas for wind power development within the study area. The two highest ranking areas were Nordanå-Lövböle and Påvalsby followed by Helgeboda, Degerdal, Pungböle, Björkboda, and Östanå-Labböle. The fourth aim was to assess the recommendation reliability, and the top-ranking two areas proved robust whereas the other ones were more sensitive.

The modulation of simple reaction time by the spatial probability of a visual stimulus

Simple reaction time (SRT) in response to visual stimuli can be influenced by many stimulus features. The speed and accuracy with which observers respond to a visual stimulus may be improved by prior knowledge about the stimulus location, which can be obtained by manipulating the spatial probability of the stimulus. However, when higher spatial probability is achieved by holding constant the stimulus location throughout successive trials, the resulting improvement in performance can also be due to local sensory facilitation caused by the recurrent spatial location of a visual target (position priming). The main objective of the present investigation was to quantitatively evaluate the modulation of SRT by the spatial probability structure of a visual stimulus. In two experiments the volunteers had to respond as quickly as possible to the visual target presented on a computer screen by pressing an optic key with the index finger of the dominant hand. Experiment 1 (N = 14) investigated how SRT changed as a function of both the different levels of spatial probability and the subject's explicit knowledge about the precise probability structure of visual stimulation. We found a gradual decrease in SRT with increasing spatial probability of a visual target regardless of the observer's previous knowledge concerning the spatial probability of the stimulus. Error rates, below 2%, were independent of the spatial probability structure of the visual stimulus, suggesting the absence of a speed-accuracy trade-off. Experiment 2 (N = 12) examined whether changes in SRT in response to a spatially recurrent visual target might be accounted for simply by sensory and temporally local facilitation. The findings indicated that the decrease in SRT brought about by a spatially recurrent target was associated with its spatial predictability, and could not be accounted for solely in terms of sensory priming.

Changes in cell shape and desmin intermediate filament distribution are associated with down-regulation of desmin expression in C2C12 myoblasts grown in the absence of extracellular Ca2+

Desmin is the main intermediate filament (IF) protein of muscle cells. In skeletal muscle, desmin IFs form a scaffold that interconnects the entire contractile apparatus with the subsarcolemmal cytoskeleton and cytoplasmic organelles. The interaction between desmin and the sarcolemma is mediated by a number of membrane proteins, many of which are Ca2+-sensitive. In the present study, we analyzed the effects of the Ca2+ chelator EGTA (1.75 mM) on the expression and distribution of desmin in C2C12 myoblasts grown in culture. We used indirect immunofluorescence microscopy and reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to analyze desmin distribution and expression in C2C12 cells grown in the presence or absence of EGTA. Control C2C12 myoblasts showed a well-spread morphology after a few hours in culture and became bipolar when grown for 24 h in the presence of EGTA. Control C2C12 cells showed a dense network of desmin from the perinuclear region to the cell periphery, whereas EGTA-treated cells showed desmin aggregates in the cytoplasm. RT-PCR analysis revealed a down-regulation of desmin expression in EGTA-treated C2C12 cells compared to untreated cells. The present results suggest that extracellular Ca2+ availability plays a role in the regulation of desmin expression and in the spatial distribution of desmin IFs in myoblasts, and is involved in the generation and maintenance of myoblast cell shape.

Differential effects of aging on spatial contrast sensitivity to linear and polar sine-wave gratings

Changes in visual function beyond high-contrast acuity are known to take place during normal aging. We determined whether sensitivity to linear sine-wave gratings and to an elementary stimulus preferentially processed in extrastriate areas could be distinctively affected by aging. We measured spatial contrast sensitivity twice for concentric polar (Bessel) and vertical linear gratings of 0.6, 2.5, 5, and 20 cycles per degree (cpd) in two age groups (20-30 and 60-70 years). All participants were free of identifiable ocular disease and had normal or corrected-to-normal visual acuity. Participants were more sensitive to Cartesian than to polar gratings in all frequencies tested, and the younger adult group was more sensitive to all stimuli tested. Significant differences between sensitivities of the two groups were found for linear (only 20 cpd; P<0.01) and polar gratings (all frequencies tested; P<0.01). The young adult group was significantly more sensitive to linear than to circular gratings in the 20 cpd frequency. The older adult group was significantly more sensitive to linear than to circular gratings in all spatial frequencies, except in the 20 cpd frequency. The results suggest that sensitivity to the two kinds of stimuli is affected differently by aging. We suggest that neural changes in the aging brain are important determinants of this difference and discuss the results according to current models of human aging.