Estimating the effects of environmental exposures using a weighted mean of monitoring stations

The health effects of environmental hazards are often examined using time series of the association between a daily response variable (e.g., death) and a daily level of exposure (e.g., temperature). Exposures are usually the average from a network of stations. This gives each station equal importance, and negates the opportunity for some stations to be better measures of exposure. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model that weighted stations using random variables between zero and one. We compared the weighted estimates to the standard model using data on health outcomes (deaths and hospital admissions) and exposures (air pollution and temperature) in Brisbane, Australia. The improvements in model fit were relatively small, and the estimated health effects of pollution were similar using either the standard or weighted estimates. Spatial weighted exposures would be probably more worthwhile when there is either greater spatial detail in the health outcome, or a greater spatial variation in exposure.

Study of new particle formation in subtropical urban environment in Brisbane, Australia

Atmospheric ultrafine particles play an important role in affecting human health, altering climate and degrading visibility. Numerous studies have been conducted to better understand the formation process of these particles, including field measurements, laboratory chamber studies and mathematical modeling approaches. Field studies on new particle formation found that formation processes were significantly affected by atmospheric conditions, such as the availability of particle precursors and meteorological conditions. However, those studies were mainly carried out in rural areas of the northern hemisphere and information on new particle formation in urban areas, especially those in subtropical regions, is limited. In general, subtropical regions display a higher level of solar radiation, along with stronger photochemical reactivity, than those regions investigated in previous studies. However, based on the results of these studies, the mechanisms involved in the new particle formation process remain unclear, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, in order to fill this gap in knowledge, a new particle formation study was conducted in a subtropical urban area in the Southern Hemisphere during 2009, which measured particle size distribution in different locations in Brisbane, Australia. Characterisation of nucleation events was conducted at the campus building of the Queensland University of Technology (QUT), located in an urban area of Brisbane. Overall, the annual average number concentrations of ultrafine, Aitken and nucleation mode particles were found to be 9.3 x 103, 3.7 x 103 and 5.6 x 103 cm-3, respectively. This was comparable to levels measured in urban areas of northern Europe, but lower than those from polluted urban areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, China and Huelva and Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain. Average particle number concentration (PNC) in the Brisbane region did not show significant seasonal variation, however a relatively large variation was observed during the warmer season. Diurnal variation of Aitken and nucleation mode particles displayed different patterns, which suggested that direct vehicle exhaust emissions were a major contributor of Aitken mode particles, while nucleation mode particles originated from vehicle exhaust emissions in the morning and photochemical production at around noon. A total of 65 nucleation events were observed during 2009, in which 40 events were classified as nucleation growth events and the remainder were nucleation burst events. An interesting observation in this study was that all nucleation growth events were associated with vehicle exhaust emission plumes, while the nucleation burst events were associated with industrial emission plumes from an industrial area. The average particle growth rate for nucleation events was found to be 4.6 nm hr-1 (ranging from 1.79-7.78 nm hr-1), which is comparable to other urban studies conducted in the United States, while monthly particle growth rates were found to be positively related to monthly solar radiation (r = 0.76, p <0.05). The particle growth rate values reported in this work are the first of their kind to be reported for the subtropical urban area of Australia. Furthermore, the influence of nucleation events on PNC within the urban airshed was also investigated. PNC was simultaneously measured at urban (QUT), roadside (Woolloongabba) and semi-urban (Rocklea) sites in Brisbane during 2009. Total PNC at these sites was found to be significantly affected by regional nucleation events. The relative fractions of PNC to total daily PNC observed at QUT, Woolloongabba and Rocklea were found to be 12%, 9% and 14%, respectively, during regional nucleation events. These values were higher than those observed as a result of vehicle exhaust emissions during weekday mornings, which ranged from 5.1-5.5% at QUT and Woolloongabba. In addition, PNC in the semi-urban area of Rocklea increased by a factor of 15.4 when it was upwind from urban pollution sources under the influence of nucleation burst events. Finally, we investigated the influence of sulfuric acid on new particle formation in the study region. A H2SO4 proxy was calculated by using [SO2], solar radiation and particle condensation sink data to represent the new particle production strength for the urban, roadside and semi-urban areas of Brisbane during the period June-July of 2009. The temporal variations of the H2SO4 proxies and the nucleation mode particle concentration were found to be in phase during nucleation events in the urban and roadside areas. In contrast, the peak of proxy concentration occurred 1-2 hr prior to the observed peak in nucleation mode particle concentration at the downwind semi-urban area of Brisbane. A moderate to strong linear relationship was found between the proxy and the freshly formed particles, with r2 values of 0.26-0.77 during the nucleation events. In addition, the log[H2SO4 proxy] required to produce new particles was found to be ~1.0 ppb Wm-2 s and below 0.5 ppb Wm-2 s for the urban and semi-urban areas, respectively. The particle growth rates were similar during nucleation events at the three study locations, with an average value of 2.7 ± 0.5 nm hr-1. This result suggested that a similar nucleation mechanism dominated in the study region, which was strongly related to sulphuric acid concentration, however the relationship between the proxy and PNC was poor in the semi-urban area of Rocklea. This can be explained by the fact that the nucleation process was initiated upwind of the site and the resultant particles were transported via the wind to Rocklea. This explanation is also supported by the higher geometric mean diameter value observed for particles during the nucleation event and the time lag relationship between the H2SO4 proxy and PNC observed at Rocklea. In summary, particle size distribution was continuously measured in a subtropical urban area of southern hemisphere during 2009, the findings from which formed the first particle size distribution dataset in the study region. The characteristics of nucleation events in the Brisbane region were quantified and the properties of the nucleation growth and burst events are discussed in detail using a case studies approach. To further investigate the influence of nucleation events on PNC in the study region, PNC was simultaneously measured at three locations to examine the spatial variation of PNC during the regional nucleation events. In addition, the impact of upwind urban pollution on the downwind semi-urban area was quantified during these nucleation events. Sulphuric acid was found to be an important factor influencing new particle formation in the urban and roadside areas of the study region, however, a direct relationship with nucleation events at the semi-urban site was not observed. This study provided an overview of new particle formation in the Brisbane region, and its influence on PNC in the surrounding area. The findings of this work are the first of their kind for an urban area in the southern hemisphere.

First measurements of source apportionment of organic aerosols in the Southern Hemisphere

An Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer was deployed at five urban schools to examine spatial and temporal variability of organic aerosols (OA) and positive matrix factorization (PMF) used for the first time in the Southern Hemisphere to apportion the sources of the OA across an urban area. The sources identified included hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), biomass burning OA (BBOA) and oxygenated OA (OOA). At all sites, the main source was OOA, which accounted for 62–73% of the total OA mass and was generally more oxidized compared to those reported in the Northern Hemisphere. This suggests that there are differences in aging processes or regional sources in the two hemispheres. Unlike HOA and BBOA, OOA demonstrated instructive temporal variations but not spatial variation across the urban area. Application of cluster analysis to the PMF-derived sources offered a simple and effective method for qualitative comparison of PMF sources that can be used in other studies.

Geographical distribution of human Schistosoma japonicum infection in the Philippines : tools to support disease control and further elimination

S. japonicum infection is believed to be endemic in 28 of the 80 provinces of the Philippines and the most recent data on schistosomiasis prevalence have shown considerable variability between provinces. In order to increase the efficient allocation of parasitic disease control resources in the country, we aimed to describe the small scale spatial variation in S. japonicum prevalence across the Philippines, quantify the role of the physical environment in driving the spatial variation of S. japonicum, and develop a predictive risk map of S. japonicum infection. Data on S. japonicum infection from 35,754 individuals across the country were geo-located at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was then stratified geographically for Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao. Zero-inflated binomial Bayesian geostatistical models of S. japonicum prevalence were developed and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. Results of the analysis show that in the three regions, males and individuals aged ≥ 20 years had significantly higher prevalence of S. japonicum compared with females and children <5 years. The role of the environmental variables differed between regions of the Philippines. S. japonicum infection was widespread in the Visayas whereas it was much more focal in Luzon and Mindanao. This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in prevalence of S. japonicum infection in the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to schistosomiasis interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional schistosomiasis surveys should be prioritized to areas identified to be at high risk, but which were underrepresented in our dataset.

A national satellite-based land-use regression model for air pollution exposure assessment in Australia

Land-use regression (LUR) is a technique that can improve the accuracy of air pollution exposure assessment in epidemiological studies. Most LUR models are developed for single cities, which places limitations on their applicability to other locations. We sought to develop a model to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations with national coverage of Australia by using satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns combined with other predictor variables. We used a generalised estimating equation (GEE) model to predict annual and monthly average ambient NO2 concentrations measured by a national monitoring network from 2006 through 2011. The best annual model explained 81% of spatial variation in NO2 (absolute RMS error=1.4 ppb), while the best monthly model explained 76% (absolute RMS error=1.9 ppb). We applied our models to predict NO2 concentrations at the ~350,000 census mesh blocks across the country (a mesh block is the smallest spatial unit in the Australian census). National population-weighted average concentrations ranged from 7.3 ppb (2006) to 6.3 ppb (2011). We found that a simple approach using tropospheric NO2 column data yielded models with slightly better predictive ability than those produced using a more involved approach that required simulation of surface-to-column ratios. The models were capable of capturing within-urban variability in NO2, and offer the ability to estimate ambient NO2 concentrations at monthly and annual time scales across Australia from 2006–2011. We are making our model predictions freely available for research.

Spatially varying ground motion effects on seismic response of adjacent structures considering soil-structure interaction

Spatial variation of seismic ground motions is caused by incoherence effect, wave passage, and local site conditions. This study focuses on the effects of spatial variation of earthquake ground motion on the responses of adjacent reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The adjacent buildings are modeled considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) so that the buildings can be interacted with each other under uniform and non-uniform ground motions. Three different site classes are used to model the soil layers of SSI system. Based on fast Fourier transformation (FFT), spatially correlated non-uniform ground motions are generated compatible with known power spectrum density function (PSDF) at different locations. Numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the displacement responses and the absolute maximum base shear forces of adjacent structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The results are presented in terms of related parameters affecting the structural response using three different types of soil site classes. The responses of adjacent structures have changed remarkably due to spatial variation of ground motions. The effect can be significant on rock site rather than clay site.

Landform characterization using geophysics—Recent advances, applications, and emerging tools

This paper presents an overview of the strengths and limitations of existing and emerging geophysical tools for landform studies. The objectives are to discuss recent technical developments and to provide a review of relevant recent literature, with a focus on propagating field methods with terrestrial applications. For various methods in this category, including ground-penetrating radar (GPR), electrical resistivity (ER), seismics, and electromagnetic (EM) induction, the technical backgrounds are introduced, followed by section on novel developments relevant to landform characterization. For several decades, GPR has been popular for characterization of the shallow subsurface and in particular sedimentary systems. Novel developments in GPR include the use of multi-offset systems to improve signal-to-noise ratios and data collection efficiency, amongst others, and the increased use of 3D data. Multi-electrode ER systems have become popular in recent years as they allow for relatively fast and detailed mapping. Novel developments include time-lapse monitoring of dynamic processes as well as the use of capacitively-coupled systems for fast, non-invasive surveys. EM induction methods are especially popular for fast mapping of spatial variation, but can also be used to obtain information on the vertical variation in subsurface electrical conductivity. In recent years several examples of the use of plane wave EM for characterization of landforms have been published. Seismic methods for landform characterization include seismic reflection and refraction techniques and the use of surface waves. A recent development is the use of passive sensing approaches. The use of multiple geophysical methods, which can benefit from the sensitivity to different subsurface parameters, is becoming more common. Strategies for coupled and joint inversion of complementary datasets will, once more widely available, benefit the geophysical study of landforms.Three cases studies are presented on the use of electrical and GPR methods for characterization of landforms in the range of meters to 100. s of meters in dimension. In a study of polygonal patterned ground in the Saginaw Lowlands, Michigan, USA, electrical resistivity tomography was used to characterize differences in subsurface texture and water content associated with polygon-swale topography. Also, a sand-filled thermokarst feature was identified using electrical resistivity data. The second example is on the use of constant spread traversing (CST) for characterization of large-scale glaciotectonic deformation in the Ludington Ridge, Michigan. Multiple CST surveys parallel to an ~. 60. m high cliff, where broad (~. 100. m) synclines and narrow clay-rich anticlines are visible, illustrated that at least one of the narrow structures extended inland. A third case study discusses internal structures of an eolian dune on a coastal spit in New Zealand. Both 35 and 200. MHz GPR data, which clearly identified a paleosol and internal sedimentary structures of the dune, were used to improve understanding of the development of the dune, which may shed light on paleo-wind directions.

Spatially explicit perceptions of ecosystem services and land cover change in forested regions of Borneo

Spatially explicit information on local perceptions of ecosystem services is needed to inform land use planning within rapidly changing landscapes. In this paper we spatially modelled local people's use and perceptions of benefits from forest ecosystem services in Borneo, from interviews of 1837 people in 185 villages. Questions related to provisioning, cultural/spiritual, regulating and supporting ecosystem services derived from forest, and attitudes towards forest conversion. We used boosted regression trees (BRTs) to combine interview data with social and environmental predictors to understand spatial variation of perceptions across Borneo. Our results show that people use a variety of products from intact and highly degraded forests. Perceptions of benefits from forests were strongest: in human-altered forest landscapes for cultural and spiritual benefits; in human-altered and intact forests landscapes for health benefits; intact forest for direct health benefits, such as medicinal plants; and in regions with little forest and extensive plantations, for environmental benefits, such as climatic impacts from deforestation. Forest clearing for small scale agriculture was predicted to be widely supported yet less so for large-scale agriculture. Understanding perceptions of rural communities in dynamic, multi-use landscapes is important where people are often directly affected by the decline in ecosystem services.

Evidence for a stock discontinuity of snapper (Pagrus auratus) on the east coast of Australia

Allozyme electrophoresis was used to investigate the genetic stock structure of snapper, Pagrus auratus (Bloch and Schneider) on the east coast of Australia. Spatial variation in allele frequency was examined at nine polymorphic loci. The results support a single, relatively weak genetic disjunction among the P. auratus populations north of Sydney (latitude 33°52?) but south of Forster (latitude 31°58?) on the central coast of New South Wales. There was also evidence for genetic isolation by distance on the east coast. The influence of the East Australian Current (EAC) in transporting larvae to the south, coupled with the general northward migration pattern of adult snapper is believed to be responsible for maintaining a panmictic snapper population on much of the east coast of Australia.

Perennial grassland dynamics on fertile plains: Is coexistence mediated by disturbance?

The response of grasslands to disturbance varies with the nature of the disturbance and the productivity of the landscape. In highly productive grasslands, competitive exclusion often results in decreased species richness and grazing may allow more species to coexist. Once widespread, grasslands dominated by Dichanthium sericeum (Queensland bluegrass) and Astrebla spp. (Mitchell grass) occur on fertile plains but have been reduced in extent by cultivation. We tested the effects of exclusion of livestock grazing on these grasslands by comparing the floristic composition of sites in a nature reserve with an adjacent stock reserve. In addition, sites that had been cultivated within the nature reserve were compared with those where grazing but no cultivation had occurred. To partition the effects of temporal variation from spatial variation we sampled sites in three different years (1998, 2002 and 2004). Some 194 taxa were recorded at the nature reserve and surrounding stock routes. Sampling time, the occurrence of past cultivation and livestock grazing all influenced species composition. Species richness varied greatly between sampling periods relating to highly variable rainfall and water availability on heavy clay soils. Native species richness was significantly lower at previously cultivated sites (13-22 years after cultivation), but was not significantly influenced by grazing exclusion. After 8 years it appears that reintroducing disturbance in the form of livestock grazing is not necessary to maintain plant species richness in the reserve. The highly variable climate (e.g. droughts) probably plays an important role in the coexistence of species by negating competitive exclusion and allowing interstitial species to persist.

Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach

In this work an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard of South India (8.0 degrees N-20 degrees N; 72 degrees E-88 degrees E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The earthquake data obtained from different sources were declustered to remove the dependent events. A total of 598 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were obtained from the study area after declustering, and were considered for further hazard analysis. The seismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones in the study area which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. For assessing theseismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x0.1 degrees, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the centre of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources with in a radius of 300 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (SA) values at 1 corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated for all the grid points. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of these values are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were also developed for all the grid points. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at surface level was calculated for the entire South India for four different site classes. These values can be used to find the PGA values at any site in South India based on site class at that location. Thus, this method can be viewed as a simplified method to evaluate the PGA values at any site in the study area.

Predicting Additive and Non-additive Genetic Effects from Trials Where Traits Are Affected by Interplot Competition

There are two key types of selection in a plant breeding program, namely selection of hybrids for potential commercial use and the selection of parents for use in future breeding. Oakey et al. (in Theoretical and Applied Genetics 113, 809-819, 2006) showed how both of these aims could be achieved using pedigree information in a mixed model analysis in order to partition genetic effects into additive and non-additive effects. Their approach was developed for field trial data subject to spatial variation. In this paper we extend the approach for data from trials subject to interplot competition. We show how the approach may be used to obtain predictions of pure stand additive and non-additive effects. We develop the methodology in the context of a single field trial using an example from an Australian sorghum breeding program.

Export of organic matter, sulphate and base cations from boreal headwater catchments downstream to the coast: impacts of land use and climate

The terrestrial export of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is associated with climate, vegetation and land use, and thus is under the influence of climatic variability and human interference with terrestrial ecosystems, their soils and hydrological cycles. The present study provides an assessment of spatial variation of DOM concentrations and export, and interactions between DOM, catchment characteristics, land use and climatic factors in boreal catchments. The influence of catchment characteristics, land use and climatic drivers on the concentrations and export of total organic carbon (TOC), total organic nitrogen (TON) and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) was estimated using stream water quality, forest inventory and climatic data from 42 Finnish pristine forested headwater catchments, and water quality monitoring, GIS land use, forest inventory and climatic data from the 36 main Finnish rivers (and their sub-catchments) flowing to the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the export of DOM in relation to land use along a European climatic gradient was studied using river water quality and land use data from four European areas. Additionally, the role of organic and minerogenic acidity in controlling pH levels in Finnish rivers and pristine streams was studied by measuring organic anion, sulphate (SO4) and base cation (Ca, Mg, K and Na) concentrations. In all study catchments, TOC was a major fraction of DOM, with much lower proportions of TON and DOP. Moreover, most of TOC and TON was in a dissolved form. The correlation between TOC and TON concentrations was strong and TOC concentrations explained 78% of the variation in TON concentrations in pristine headwater streams. In a subgroup of 20 headwater catchments with similar climatic conditions and low N deposition in eastern Finland, the proportion of peatlands in the catchment and the proportion of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karsten) of the tree stand had the strongest correlation with the TOC and TON concentrations and export. In Finnish river basins, TOC export increased with the increasing proportion of peatland in the catchment, whereas TON export increased with increasing extent of agricultural land. The highest DOP concentrations and export were recorded in river basins with a high extent of agricultural land and urban areas, reflecting the influence of human impact on DOP loads. However, the most important predictor for TOC, TON and DOP export in Finnish rivers was the proportion of upstream lakes in the catchment. The higher the upstream lake percentage, the lower the export indicating organic matter retention in lakes. Molar TOC:TON ratio decreased from headwater catchments covered by forests and peatlands to the large river basins with mixed land use, emphasising the effect of the land use gradient on the stoichiometry of rivers. This study also demonstrated that the land use of the catchments is related to both organic and minerogenic acidity in rivers and pristine headwater streams. Organic anion dominated in rivers and streams situated in northern Finland, reflecting the higher extent of peatlands in these areas, whereas SO4 dominated in southern Finland and on western coastal areas, where the extent of fertile areas, agricultural land, urban areas, acid sulphate soils, and sulphate deposition is highest. High TOC concentrations decreased pH values in the stream and river water, whereas no correlation between SO4 concentrations and pH was observed. This underlines the importance of organic acids in controlling pH levels in Finnish pristine headwater streams and main rivers. High SO4 concentrations were associated with high base cation concentrations and fertile areas, which buffered the effects of SO4 on pH.

Mapping the risk of soil-transmitted helminthic infections in the Philippines

Background In order to increase the efficient allocation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) disease control resources in the Philippines, we aimed to describe for the first time the spatial variation in the prevalence of A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm across the country, quantify the association between the physical environment and spatial variation of STH infection and develop predictive risk maps for each infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Data on STH infection from 35,573 individuals across the country were geolocated at the barangay level and included in the analysis. The analysis was stratified geographically in two major regions: 1) Luzon and the Visayas and 2) Mindanao. Bayesian geostatistical models of STH prevalence were developed, including age and sex of individuals and environmental variables (rainfall, land surface temperature and distance to inland water bodies) as predictors, and diagnostic uncertainty was incorporated. The role of environmental variables was different between regions of the Philippines. This analysis revealed that while A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were widespread and highly endemic, hookworm infections were more circumscribed to smaller foci in the Visayas and Mindanao. Conclusions/Significance This analysis revealed significant spatial variation in STH infection prevalence within provinces of the Philippines. This suggests that a spatially targeted approach to STH interventions, including mass drug administration, is warranted. When financially possible, additional STH surveys should be prioritized to high-risk areas identified by our study in Luzon.

Defoliation and patchy nutrient return drive grazing effects on plant and soil properties in a dairy cow pasture

Large herbivores can influence plant and soil properties in grassland ecosystems, but especially for belowground biota and processes, the mechanisms that explain these effects are not fully understood. Here, we examine the capability of three grazing mechanisms-plant defoliation, dung and urine return, and physical presence of animals (causing trampling and excreta return in patches)-to explain grazing effects in Phleum pratense-Festuca pratensis dairy cow pasture in Finland. Comparison of control plots and plots grazed by cows showed that grazing maintained original plant-community structure, decreased shoot mass and root N and P concentrations, increased shoot N and P concentrations, and had an inconsistent effect on root mass. Among soil fauna, grazing increased the abundance of fungivorous nematodes and Aporrectodea earthworms and decreased the abundance of detritivorous enchytraeids and Lumbricus earthworms. Grazing also increased soil density and pH but did not affect average soil inorganic-N concentration. To reveal the mechanisms behind these effects, we analyzed results from mowed plots and plots that were both mowed and treated with a dung and urine mixture. This comparison revealed that grazing effects on plant attributes were almost entirely explained by defoliation, with only one partly explained by excreta return. Among belowground attributes, however, the mechanisms were more mixed, with effects explained by defoliation, patchy excreta return, and cow trampling. Average soil inorganic-N concentration was not affected by grazing because it was simultaneously decreased by defoliation and increased by cow presence. Presence of cows created great spatial heterogeneity in soil N availability and abundance of fungivorous nematodes. A greenhouse trial revealed a grazing-induced soil feedback on plant growth, which was explained by patchiness in N availability rather than changes in soil biota. Our results show that grazing effects on plant attributes can be satisfactorily predicted using the effects of defoliation, whereas those on soil fauna and soil N availability need understanding of other mechanisms as well. The results indicate that defoliation-induced changes in plant ecophysiology and the great spatial variation in N availability created by grazers are the two key mechanisms through which large herbivores can control grassland ecosystems.