GOCE: precise orbit determination for the entire mission

The Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) was the first Earth explorer core mission of the European Space Agency. It was launched on March 17, 2009 into a Sun-synchronous dusk-dawn orbit and re-entered into the Earth’s atmosphere on November 11, 2013. The satellite altitude was between 255 and 225 km for the measurement phases. The European GOCE Gravity consortium is responsible for the Level 1b to Level 2 data processing in the frame of the GOCE High-level processing facility (HPF). The Precise Science Orbit (PSO) is one Level 2 product, which was produced under the responsibility of the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern within the HPF. This PSO product has been continuously delivered during the entire mission. Regular checks guaranteed a high consistency and quality of the orbits. A correlation between solar activity, GPS data availability and quality of the orbits was found. The accuracy of the kinematic orbit primarily suffers from this. Improvements in modeling the range corrections at the retro-reflector array for the SLR measurements were made and implemented in the independent SLR validation for the GOCE PSO products. The satellite laser ranging (SLR) validation finally states an orbit accuracy of 2.42 cm for the kinematic and 1.84 cm for the reduced-dynamic orbits over the entire mission. The common-mode accelerations from the GOCE gradiometer were not used for the official PSO product, but in addition to the operational HPF work a study was performed to investigate to which extent common-mode accelerations improve the reduced-dynamic orbit determination results. The accelerometer data may be used to derive realistic constraints for the empirical accelerations estimated for the reduced-dynamic orbit determination, which already improves the orbit quality. On top of that the accelerometer data may further improve the orbit quality if realistic constraints and state-of-the-art background models such as gravity field and ocean tide models are used for the reduced-dynamic orbit determination.

New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years

The consistency of an existing reconstructed annual (December–November) temperature series for the Lisbon region (Portugal) from 1600 onwards, based on a European-wide reconstruction, with (1) five local borehole temperature–depth profiles; (2) synthetic temperature– depth profiles, generated from both reconstructed temperatures and two regional paleoclimate simulations in Portugal; (3) instrumental data sources over the twentieth century; and (4) temperature indices from documentary sources during the late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715) is assessed. The low-frequency variability in the reconstructed temperature in Portugal is not entirely consistent with local borehole temperature–depth profiles and with the simulated response of temperature in two regional paleoclimate simulations driven by reconstructions of various climate forcings. Therefore, the existing reconstructed series is calibrated by adjusting its low-frequency variability to the simulations (first-stage adjustment). The annual reconstructed series is then calibrated in its location and scale parameters, using the instrumental series and a linear regression between them (second-stage adjustment). This calibrated series shows clear footprints of the Maunder and Dalton minima, commonly related to changes in solar activity and explosive volcanic eruptions, and a strong recent-past warming, commonly related to human-driven forcing. Lastly, it is also in overall agreement with annual temperature indices over the late Maunder Minimum in Portugal. The series resulting from this post-reconstruction adjustment can be of foremost relevance to improve the current understanding of the driving mechanisms of climate variability in Portugal.

Late-Holocene climate variability and ecosystem responses in Alaska inferred from high-resolution multiproxy sediment analyses at Grizzly Lake

The late-Holocene shift from Picea glauca (white spruce) to Picea mariana (black spruce) forests marked the establishment of modern boreal forests in Alaska. To understand the patterns and drivers of this vegetational change and the associated late-Holocene environmental dynamics, we analyzed radiocarbon-dated sediments from Grizzly Lake for chironomids, diatoms, pollen, macrofossils, charcoal, element composition, particle size, and magnetic properties for the period 4100–1800 cal BP. Chironomid assemblages reveal two episodes of decreased July temperature, at ca. 3300–3150 (ca −1 °C) and 2900–2550 cal BP (ca −2 °C). These episodes coincided with climate change elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric reorganization, and low solar activity. Diatom-inferred lake levels dropped by ca. 5 m at 3200 cal BP, suggesting dry conditions during the period 3200–1800 cal BP. P. glauca declined and P. mariana expanded at ca. 3200 cal BP; this vegetational change was linked to diatom-inferred low lake levels and thus decreased moisture availability. Forest cover declined at 3300–3100, 2800–2500 and 2300–2100 cal BP and soil erosion as inferred from increased values of Al, K, Si, Ti, and Ca intensified, when solar irradiance was low. Plant taxa adapted to disturbance and cold climate (e.g. Alnus viridis, shrub Betula, Epilobium) expanded during these periods of reduced forest cover. This open vegetation type was associated with high fire activity that peaked at 2800 cal BP, when climatic conditions were particularly cold and dry. Forest recovery lagged behind subsequent climate warming (≤+3 °C) by ca. 75–225 years. Our multiproxy data set suggests that P. glauca was dominant under warm-moist climatic conditions, whereas P. mariana prevailed under cold-dry and warm-dry conditions. This pattern implies that climatic warming, as anticipated for this century, may promote P. glauca expansions, if moisture availability will be sufficiently high, while P. mariana may expand under dry conditions, possibly exacerbating climate impacts on the fire regime.

Evidence for cooler European summers during periods of changing meltwater flux to the North Atlantic

We analyzed fossil chironomids (nonbiting midges) and pollen in two lake-sediment records to reconstruct and quantify Holocene summer-temperature fluctuations in the European Alps. Chironomid and pollen records indicate five centennial-scale cooling episodes during the early- and mid-Holocene. The strongest temperature declines of ≈1°C are inferred at ≈10,700–10,500 and 8,200–7,600 calibrated 14C years B.P., whereas other temperature fluctuations are of smaller amplitude. Two forcing mechanisms have been presented recently to explain centennial-scale climate variability in Europe during the early- and mid-Holocene, both involving changes in Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In the first mechanism, changes in meltwater flux from the North American continent to the North Atlantic are responsible for changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, thereby affecting circum-Atlantic climate. In the second mechanism, solar variability is the cause of Holocene climatic fluctuations, possibly triggering changes in Atlantic thermohaline overturning. Within their dating uncertainty, the two major cooling periods in the European Alps are coeval with substantial changes in the routing of North American freshwater runoff to the North Atlantic, whereas quantitatively, our climatic reconstructions show a poor agreement with available records of past solar activity. Thus, our results suggest that, during the early- and mid-Holocene, freshwater-induced Atlantic circulation changes had stronger influence on Alpine summer temperatures than solar variability and that Holocene thermohaline circulation reductions have led to summer-temperature declines of up to 1°C in central Europe.

Interstellar Flow and Temperature Determination with IBEX: Robustness and Sensitivity to Systematic Effects

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) samples the interstellar neutral (ISN) gas flow of several species every year from December through late March when the Earth moves into the incoming flow. The first quantitative analyses of these data resulted in a narrow tube in four-dimensional interstellar parameter space, which couples speed, flow latitude, flow longitude, and temperature, and center values with approximately 3° larger longitude and 3 km s⁻¹ lower speed, but with temperatures similar to those obtained from observations by the Ulysses spacecraft. IBEX has now recorded six years of ISN flow observations, providing a large database over increasing solar activity and using varying viewing strategies. In this paper, we evaluate systematic effects that are important for the ISN flow vector and temperature determination. We find that all models in use return ISN parameters well within the observational uncertainties and that the derived ISN flow direction is resilient against uncertainties in the ionization rate. We establish observationally an effective IBEX-Lo pointing uncertainty of ±0°18 in spin angle and confirm an uncertainty of ±0°1 in longitude. We also show that the IBEX viewing strategy with different spin-axis orientations minimizes the impact of several systematic uncertainties, and thus improves the robustness of the measurement. The Helium Warm Breeze has likely contributed substantially to the somewhat different center values of the ISN flow vector. By separating the flow vector and temperature determination, we can mitigate these effects on the analysis, which returns an ISN flow vector very close to the Ulysses results, but with a substantially higher temperature. Due to coupling with the ISN flow speed along the ISN parameter tube, we provide the temperature Tvisn∞=8710+440/-680 K for Visn∞=26 km s⁻¹ for comparison, where most of the uncertainty is systematic and likely due to the presence of the Warm Breeze.

Varved sediments of the Arabian Sea

The upper Holocene marine section from a kasten core taken from the oxygen minimum zone off Karachi (Pakistan) at water depth 700 m contains continuously laminated sediments with a sedimentation rate of 1.2 mm/yr and a unique record of monsoonal climatic variability covering the past 5000 years. Our chronostratigraphy is based on varve counts verified by conventional and AMS14C dating. Individual hemipelagic varve couplets are about 0.8-1.5 mm thick, with light-colored terrigenous laminae (A) deposited mainly during the winter monsoon alternating with dark-colored laminae (B) rich in marine organic matter, coccoliths, and fish debris that reflect deposition during the high-productivity season of the late summer monsoon (August-October). Precipitation and river runoff appear to control varve thickness and turbidite frequency. We infer that precipitation decreased in the river watershed (indicated by thinning varves) after 3500-4000 yr B.P. This is about the time of increasing aridification in the Near East and Middle East, as documented by decreasing Nile River runoff data and lake-level lowstands between Turkey and northwestern India. This precipitation pattern continued until today with precipitation minima about 2200-1900 yr B.P., 1000 yr B.P., and in the late Middle Ages (700-400 yr B.P.), and precipitation maxima in the intervening periods. As documented by spectral analysis, the thickness of varve couplets responds to the average length of a 250-yr cycle, a 125-yr cycle, the Gleissberg cycle of solar activity (95 yr), and a 56-yr cycle of unknown origin. Higher frequency cycles are also present at 45, 39, 29-31, and 14 yr. The sedimentary gray-value also shows strong variability in the 55-yr band plus a 31-yr cycle. Because high-frequency cyclicity in the ENSO band (ca. 3.5 and 5 yr) is only weakly expressed, our data do not support a straightforward interaction of the Pacific ENSO with the monsoon-driven climate system of the Arabian Sea.

Continuous 25-years aerosol records at coastal Antarctica: Part I. Variability and climate implications of ionic compounds

The aerosol climatology at the coastal Antarctic Neumayer Station (NM) was investigated based on continuous, 25-yr long observations of biogenic sulphur components (methanesulfonate and non-sea salt sulphate), sea salt and nitrate. Although significant long-term trends could only be detected for nitrate (-3.6 ± 2.5% per year between 1983 and 1993 and +4.0 ± 3.2% per year from 1993-2007), non-harmonic periodicities between 2 and 5 yr were typical for all species. Dedicated time series analyses revealed that relations to sea ice extent and various circulation indices are weak at best or not significant. In particular, no consistent link between sea ice extent and sea salt loadings was evident suggesting only a rather local relevance of the NM sea salt record. Nevertheless, a higher Southern Annular Mode index tended to entail a lower biogenic sulphur signal. In examining the spatial uniformity of the NM findings we contrasted them to respective 17 yr records from the coastal Dumont d'Urville Station. We found similar long-term trends for nitrate, indicating an Antarctic-wide but not identifiable atmospheric signal, although any significant impact of solar activity or pollution could be ruled out. No inter-site variability on the multiannual scale was evident for the other ionic compounds.

Sedimentology on 19 cores from the South China Sea

Based on the study of 10 sediment cores and 40 core-top samples from the South China Sea (SCS) we obtained proxy records of past changes in East Asian monsoon climate on millennial to bidecadal time scales over the last 220,000 years. Climate proxies such as global sea level, estimates of paleotemperature, salinity, and nutrients in surface water, ventilation of deep water, paleowind strength, freshwater lids, fluvial and/or eolian sediment supply, and sediment winnowing on the sea floor were derived from planktonic and benthic stable-isotope records, the distribution of siliciclastic grain sizes, planktonic foraminifera species, and the UK37 biomarker index. Four cores were AMS-14C-dated. Two different regimes of monsoon circulation dominated the SCS over the last two glacial cycles, being linked to the minima and maxima of Northern Hemisphere solar insolation. (1) Glacial stages led to a stable estuarine circulation and a strong O2-minimum layer via a closure of the Borneo sea strait. Strong northeast monsoon and cool surface water occurred during winter, in part fed by an inflow from the north tip of Luzon. In contrast, summer temperatures were as high as during interglacials, hence the seasonality was strong. Low wetness in subtropical South China was opposed to large river input from the emerged Sunda shelf, serving as glacial refuge for tropical forest. (2) Interglacials were marked by a strong inflow of warm water via the Borneo sea strait, intense upwelling southeast of Vietnam and continental wetness in China during summer, weaker northeast monsoon and high sea-surface temperatures during winter, i.e. low seasonality. On top of the long-term variations we found millennial- to centennial-scale cold and dry, warm and humid spells during the Holocene, glacial Terminations I and II, and Stage 3. The spells were coeval with published variations in the Indian monsoon and probably, with the cold Heinrich and warm Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores, thus suggesting global climatic teleconnections. Holocene oscillations in the runoff from South China centered around periodicities of 775 years, ascribed to subharmonics of the 1500-year cycle in oceanic thermohaline circulation. 102/84-year cycles are tentatively assigned to the Gleissberg period of solar activity. Phase relationships among various monsoon proxies near the onset of Termination IA suggest that summer-monsoon rains and fluvial runoff from South China had already intensified right after the last glacial maximum (LGM) insolation minimum, coeval with the start of Antarctic ice melt, prior to the d18O signals of global sea-level rise. Vice versa, the strength of winter-monsoon winds decreased in short centennial steps only 3000-4000 years later, along with the melt of glacial ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere.

Influencia de los ciclos solares sobre las precipitaciones en Azul, pcia. de Buenos Aires

El objetivo de este artículo fue encontrar un sinergismo entre los máximos de actividad solar y las lluvias caídas en Azul, Pcia. de Buenos Aires (36°45' S; 59°57' O y altitud: 137 m s. n. m.), empleándose una serie de precipitaciones anuales desde 1913 hasta 2012. Los resultados mostraron que los últimos cuatro máximos de actividad solar se relacionan con los años de mayores precipitaciones. Las precipitaciones anuales para dichos años, presentaron un promedio de 1317 mm (2,4 desvíos estándar sobre la media) que resultó significativamente diferente a la media de los últimos cien años (855,7 mm ±191,1 mm). Se encontró una relación positiva entre los años de máxima actividad solar y la aparición de eventos extremos en las precipitaciones, que generan excesos hídricos e inundaciones en el sector rural y urbano de Azul.

Occurence of flood laminae in sediments of Ammersee

A 450 year spring-summer flood layer time series at seasonal resolution has been established from the varved sediment record of Lake Ammersee (southern Germany), applying a novel methodological approach. The main results are (1) the attainment of a precise chronology by microscopic varve counting, (2) the identification of detrital layers representing flood-triggered fluxes of catchment material into the lake, and (3) the recognition of the seasonality of these flood layers from their microstratigraphic position within a varve. Tracing flood layers in a proximal and a distal core and correlating them by application of the precise chronology provided information on the depositional processes. Comparing the seasonal flood layer record with daily runoff data of the inflowing River Ammer for the period from 1926 to 1999 allowed the definition of an approximate threshold in flood magnitude above which the formation of flood layers becomes very likely. Moreover, it was possible for the first time to estimate the "completeness" of the flood layer time series and to recognize that mainly floods in spring and summer, representing the main flood seasons in this region, are well preserved in the sediment archive. Their frequency distribution over the entire 450 year time series is not stationary but reveals maxima for colder periods of the Little Ice Age when solar activity was reduced. The observed spring-summer flood layer frequency further shows trends similar to those of the occurrence of flood-prone weather regimes since A.D. 1881, probably suggesting a causal link between solar variability and changes in midlatitude atmospheric circulation patterns.

Annual 10Be concentrations from Lakes Tiefer See and Czechowskie AD1983-2009

Beryllium 10 concentrations (10Becon) were measured at annual resolution from varved sediment cores of Lakes Tiefer See (TSK) and Czechowskie (JC) for the period 1983-2009 (~solar cycles 22 and 23). Calibrating the 10Becon time-series against complementing proxy records from the same archive as well as local precipitation and neutron monitor data, reflecting solar forced changes in atmospheric radionuclide production, allowed (i) identifying the main depositional processes and (ii) evaluating the potential for solar activity reconstruction. 10Becon in TSK and JC sediments are significantly correlated to varying neutron monitor counts (TSK: r=0.5, p=0.05, n=16; JC: r=0.46, p=0.03, n=22). However, the further correlations with changes in organic carbon contents in TSK as well as varying organic carbon and detrital matter contents in JC point to catchment specific biases in the 10Becon time-series. In an attempt to correct for these biases multiple regression analysis was applied to extract an atmospheric 10Be production signal (10Be atmosphere). To increase the signal to noise ratio a 10Be composite record (10Be composite) was calculated from the TSK and JC 10Be atmosphere time-series. 10Becomposite is significantly correlated to variations in the neutron monitor record (r=0.49, p=0.01, n=27) and matches the expected amplitude changes in 10Be production between solar cycle minima and maxima. This calibration study on 10Be from two sites indicates the large potential but also, partly site-specific, limitations of 10Be in varved lake sediments for solar activity reconstruction.

Occurence and thickness of flood layers in varved sediments of Lake Ammersee

Microfacies analyses and X-ray fluorescence scanning (µ-XRF) at sub-mm resolution were conducted on the varved Mid- to Late Holocene interval of two sediment profiles from pre-alpine Lake Ammersee (southern Germany). The coring sites are located in a proximal (AS10prox) and distal (AS10dist) position towards the main tributary River Ammer, in 1.8 km distance from each other. To shed light on sediment distribution within the lake, particular emphasis was (1) the detection of intercalated detrital layers and their micro-sedimentological features, and (2) intra-basin correlation of these event deposits. Detrital layers were dated by microscopic varve counting, verified by accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dating of terrestrial plant macrofossils. Since ~5500 varve years (vyr) BP, in total 1573 detrital layers were detected in either one or both of the investigated sediment profiles. Based on their microfacies, geochemistry, and proximal-distal deposition pattern, detrital layers were interpreted as River Ammer flood deposits. Earlier studies on flood layer seasonality have proven that flood layer deposition occurs predominantly during spring and summer, the flood season at Lake Ammersee. Most prominent features of the record are the onset of regular flood layer deposition at ~5500 vyr BP in AS10prox and ~ 2800 vyr BP in AS10dist as well as three major increases in mean flood layer thickness at ~5500, 2800, and 400 vyr BP. Integrating information from both sediment profiles allowed to interpret these changes in terms of shifts towards higher mean flood intensity. Proposed triggering mechanisms are gradual reduction in Northern Hemisphere orbital summer forcing and superimposed centennial-scale solar activity minima. Likely responses to this forcing are enhanced equator-to-pole temperature gradients and changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. The consequences for the Ammersee region are more intense cyclones leading to extremer rainfall and flood events in spring and summer.

Geochemistry, isotopic ratios, granulometry and Uk'37 derived SST of cores obtained during Poseidon cruise POS287, off Portugal

Continental and marine conditions during the last millennium off Porto, Portugal (the southern pole of the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), are reconstructed from a sediment archive through a high-resolution multiproxy study and instrumental evidence. Results show multidecadal variability and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that correlate well with previously published land and sea-based Northern Hemisphere temperature records, and appear to be responding to long-term solar insolation variability. Precipitation was negatively correlated with the NAO, whereas strong flooding events occurred at times of marked climate cooling (AD 1100-1150 and 1400-1470) and transitions in solar activity. AD 1850 marks a major shift in the phytoplankton community associated with a decoupling of d18O records of 3 planktonic foraminifera species. These changes are interpreted as a response to a reduction in the summer and/or annual upwelling and more frequent fall-winter upwelling-like events. This shift's coincidence with a decrease in SST and the increase in coherence between our data and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) confirms the connection of the upwelling variability to the North Atlantic Ocean's surface and thermohaline circulation on a decadal scale. The disappearance of this agreement between the AMO and our records beyond AD 1850 and its coincidence with the beginning of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 supports the hypothesis of a strong anthropogenic effect on the last ~150 yr of the climate record. Furthermore, it raises an important question of the use of instrumental records as the sole calibration data set for climate reconstructions, as these may not provide the best analogue for climate beyond AD 1730.

Geochemical biomarker analyses on sediment cores PS51/154-11 and PS51/159-10 from the western Laptev Sea (Arctic Ocean)

Multi-proxy biomarker measurements were applied on two sediment cores (PS51/154, PS51/159) to reconstruct sea ice cover (IP25), biological production (brassicasterol, dinosterol) and river run-off (campesterol, beta-sitosterol) in the western Laptev Sea over the last ~17 ka with unprecedented temporal resolution. The absence of IP25 from 17.2 to 15.5 ka, in combination with minimum concentration of phytoplankton biomarkers, suggests that the western Laptev Sea shelf was mostly covered with permanent sea ice. Very minor river run-off and restricted biological production occurred during this cold interval. From ~16 ka until 7.5 ka, a long-term decrease of terrigenous (riverine) organic matter and a coeval increase of marine organic matter reflect the gradual establishment of fully marine conditions in the western Laptev Sea, caused by the onset of the post-glacial transgression. Intensified river run-off and reduced sea ice cover characterized the time interval between 15.2 and 12.9 ka, including the Bølling/Allerød warm period (14.7-12.9 ka). Prominent peaks of the DIP25 Index coinciding with maximum abundances of subpolar foraminifers, are interpreted as pulses of Atlantic water inflow on the western Laptev Sea shelf. After the warm period, a sudden return to severe sea ice conditions with strongest ice-coverage between 11.9 and 11 ka coincided with the Younger Dryas (12.9-11.6 ka). At the onset of the Younger Dryas, a distinct alteration of the ecosystem (reflected in a distinct drop in terrigenous and phytoplankton biomarkers) was detected. During the last 7 ka, the sea ice proxies reflect a cooling of the Laptev Sea spring/summer season. This cooling trend was superimposed by a short-term variability in sea ice coverage, probably representing Bond cycles (1500 ± 500 ka) that are related to solar activity changes. Hence, atmospheric circulation changes were apparently able to affect the sea ice conditions on the Laptev Sea shelf under modern sea level conditions.

On the charged particle drag acting on LAGEOS

A recent study by the authors points to Charged Particle Drag (CPD) as a contributor to revisit in the LAGEOS non-gravitational perturbations problem. Such perturbations must account for dynamical contributions in the order of pms−2 . The simulated effect takes into account: (i) spatial and temporal variations of the plasmatic parameters (temperature and concentration of the species), (ii) spacecraft potential variations caused by both the eclipse passages and variations in the parameters mentioned above, and (iii) solar and geomagnetic conditions. Furthermore, recent theoretical improvements concerning scattering drag overcome previous limitations allowing for a complete formulation of this effect. For each satellite the lifetime CPD instantaneous acceleration is computed. The plasmatic parameters have been obtained fromthe Sheffield Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere (SCTIP) semi-empirical model (up to the polar region), as well as alytical/empirical approximations based on spacecraft measurements for the auroral and polar regions. Results show that maximum amplitudes for LAGEOSI are larger than those for LAGEOS-II: −85 pms−2 and −70 pms−2 respectively. This is due to the almost (magnetically) polar orbit configuration of the first, producing larger combinations of plasmatic parameter values. High solar activity has a huge impact in the resulting LAGEOS accelerations: it yields a perfect modulation of the resulting acceleration with maximum amplitudes up to a factor of 10 when comparing low and high activity periods. On the other hand, the impact of the geomagnetic activity results into a reduction of the effect itself, probably due to a decrease in the hydrogen concentration for high energy input periods. The acceleration results will be used in a refined orbit computation in a subsequent investigation.