904 resultados para Short term load forecasting


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The forthcoming smart grids are comprised of integrated microgrids operating in grid-connected and isolated mode with local generation, storage and demand response (DR) programs. The proposed model is based on three successive complementary steps for power transaction in the market environment. The first step is characterized as a microgrid’s internal market; the second concerns negotiations between distinct interconnected microgrids; and finally, the third refers to the actual electricity market. The proposed approach is modeled and tested using a MAS framework directed to the study of the smart grids environment, including the simulation of electricity markets. This is achieved through the integration of the proposed approach with the MASGriP (Multi-Agent Smart Grid Platform) system.

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The objectives of this study were to compare how different frailty measures (Frailty Phenotype/FP, Groningen Frailty Indicator/GFI and Tilburg Frailty Indicator/TFI) predict short-term adverse outcomes. Secondarily, adopting a multidimensional approach to frailty (integral conceptual model–TFI), this study aims to compare how physical, psychological and social frailty predict the outcomes. A longitudinal study was carried out with 95 community-dwelling elderly. Participants were assessed at baseline for frailty, determinants of frailty, and adverse outcomes (healthcare utilization, quality of life, disability in basic and instrumental activities of daily living/ADL and IADL). Ten months later the outcomes were assessed again. Frailty was associated with specific healthcare utilization indicators: the FP with a greater utilization of informal care; GFI with an increased contact with healthcare professionals; and TFI with a higher amount of contacts with a general practitioner. After controlling for the effect of life-course determinants, comorbidity and adverse outcome at baseline, GFI predicted IADL disability and TFI predicted quality of life. The effect of the FP on the outcomes was not significant, when compared with the other measures. However, when comparing TFI’s domains, the physical domain was the most significant predictor of the outcomes, even explaining part of the variance of ADL disability. Frailty at baseline was associated with adverse outcomes at follow-up. However, the relationship of each frailty measure (FP, GFI and TFI) with the outcomes was different. In spite of the role of psychological frailty, TFI’s physical domain was the determinant factor for predicting disability and most of the quality of life.

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Data Mining (DM) methods are being increasingly used in prediction with time series data, in addition to traditional statistical approaches. This paper presents a literature review of the use of DM with time series data, focusing on short- time stocks prediction. This is an area that has been attracting a great deal of attention from researchers in the field. The main contribution of this paper is to provide an outline of the use of DM with time series data, using mainly examples related with short-term stocks prediction. This is important to a better understanding of the field. Some of the main trends and open issues will also be introduced.

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This work explores the use of fluorescent probes to evaluate the responses of the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata to the action of three nominal concentrations of Cd(II), Cr(VI), Cu(II) and Zn(II) for a short time (6 h). The toxic effect of the metals on algal cells was monitored using the fluorochromes SYTOX Green (SG, membrane integrity), fluorescein diacetate (FDA, esterase activity) and rhodamine 123 (Rh123, mitochondrial membrane potential). The impact of metals on chlorophyll a (Chl a) autofluorescence was also evaluated. Esterase activity was the most sensitive parameter. At the concentrations studied, all metals induced the loss of esterase activity. SG could be used to effectively detect the loss of membrane integrity in algal cells exposed to 0.32 or 1.3 μmol L−1 Cu(II). Rh123 revealed a decrease in the mitochondrial membrane potential of algal cells exposed to 0.32 and 1.3 μmol L−1 Cu(II), indicating that mitochondrial activity was compromised. Chl a autofluorescence was also affected by the presence of Cr(VI) and Cu(II), suggesting perturbation of photosynthesis. In conclusion, the fluorescence-based approach was useful for detecting the disturbance of specific cellular characteristics. Fluorescent probes are a useful diagnostic tool for the assessment of the impact of toxicants on specific targets of P. subcapitata algal cells.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

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Evidence in the literature suggests a negative relationship between volume of medical procedures and mortality rates in the health care sector. In general, high-volume hospitals appear to achieve lower mortality rates, although considerable variation exists. However, most studies focus on US hospitals, which face different incentives than hospitals in a National Health Service (NHS). In order to add to the literature, this study aims to understand what happens in a NHS. Results reveal a statistically significant correlation between volume of procedures and better outcomes for the following medical procedures: cerebral infarction, respiratory infections, circulatory disorders with AMI, bowel procedures, cirrhosis, and hip and femur procedures. The effect is explained with the practice-makes-perfect hypothesis through static effects of scale with little evidence of learning-by-doing. The centralization of those medical procedures is recommended given that this policy would save a considerable number of lives (reduction of 12% in deaths for cerebral infarction).

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Few studies have tried to characterize the efficacy of parenteral support of critically ill infants during short period of intensive care. We studied seventeen infants during five days of total parenteral hyperalimentation. Subsequently, according to the clinical conditions, the patients received nutritional support by parenteral, enteral route or both up to the 10th day. Evaluations were performed on the 1st, 5th, and 10th days. These included: clinical data (food intake and anthropometric measurements), haematological data (lymphocyte count), biochemical tests (albumin, transferrin, fibronectin, prealbumin, retinol-binding protein) and hormone assays (cortisol, insulin, glucagon). Anthropometric measurements revealed no significant difference between the first and second evaluations. Serum albumin and transferrin did not change significantly, but mean values of fibronectin (8.9 to 16 mg/dL), prealbumin (7.7 to 18 mg/dL), and retinol-binding protein (2.4 to 3.7 mg/dL) increased significantly (p < 0.05) from the 1st to the 10th day. The hormonal study showed no difference for insulin, glucagon, and cortisol when the three evaluations were compared. The mean value of the glucose/insulin ratio was of 25.7 in the 1st day and 15.5 in the 5th day, revealing a transitory supression of this hormone. Cortisol showed values above normal in the beginning of the study. We conclude that the anthropometric parameters were not useful due to the short time of the study; serum proteins, fibronectin, prealbumin, and retinol-binding protein were very sensitive indicators of nutritional status, and an elevated glucose/insulin ratio, associated with a slight tendency for increased cortisol levels suggest hypercatabolic state. The critically ill patient can benefit from an early metabolic support.

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PURPOSE: To determine the eradication rate of an ultra-short treatment schedule for Helicobacter pylori infection in a population with peptic ulcers, using omeprazole, secnidazole, and azithromycin in a once-daily dose for 3 days. METHODS: Thirty patients with peptic ulcer diagnosed by upper endoscopy and for Helicobacter pylori infection by rapid urease test and histologic examination received omeprazole 40 mg, secnidazole 1000 mg, and azithromycin 500 mg, administered once daily for 3 days. A follow-up exam was performed 12 weeks after the end of the treatment. Patients who were negative for Helicobacter pylori infection by rapid urease test and histologic examination were considered cured. RESULTS: Patients were predominantly female, and the mean age was 50 years. Duodenal peptic ulcer was found in 73% of the patients. Eradication was achieved in 9 of the 28 (32%) patients as determined from the follow-up endoscopic exam. The eradication rate by intention to treat was 30%. Side effects were present in 3% of the patients, and compliance to treatment was total. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of the low rate of side effects and good compliance, the eradication index was low. A possible drawback of this therapy is that it reduces the efficacy of macrolide and nitroimidazole compounds in subsequent treatments.

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Artigo completo publicado na revista "BioMed Research International, (2015), 1-7" e disponível no RepositóriUM em: http://hdl.handle.net/1822/33375

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Purpose: To evaluate changes in anterior corneal topography and higher-order aberrations (HOA) after 14-days of rigid gas-permeable (RGP) contact lens (CL) wear in keratoconus subjects comparing two different fitting approaches. Methods: Thirty-one keratoconus subjects (50 eyes) without previous history of CL wear were recruited for the study. Subjects were randomly fitted to either an apical-touch or three-pointtouch fitting approach. The lens’ back optic zone radius (BOZR) was 0.4 mm and 0.1 mm flatter than the first definite apical clearance lens, respectively. Differences between the baseline and post-CL wear for steepest, flattest and average corneal power (ACP) readings, central corneal astigmatism (CCA), maximum tangential curvature (KTag), anterior corneal surface asphericity, anterior corneal surface HOA and thinnest corneal thickness measured with Pentacam were compared. Results: A statistically significant flattening was found over time on the flattest and steepest simulated keratometry and ACP in apical-touch group (all p < 0.01). A statistically significant reduction in KTag was found in both groups after contact lens wear (all p < 0.05). Significant reduction was found over time in CCA (p = 0.001) and anterior corneal asphericity in both groups (p < 0.001). Thickness at the thinnest corneal point increased significantly after CL wear (p < 0.0001). Coma-like and total HOA root mean square (RMS) error were significantly reduced following CL wearing in both fitting approaches (all p < 0.05). Conclusion: Short-term rigid gas-permeable CL wear flattens the anterior cornea, increases the thinnest corneal thickness and reduces anterior surface HOA in keratoconus subjects. Apicaltouch was associated with greater corneal flattening in comparison to three-point-touch lens wear.

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OBJECTIVE: Left ventricular aneurysm is a complication of myocardial infarction that can best be treated by reconstructive surgeries that can restore ventricular geometry. We analyzed immediate results in a group of consecutive patients who underwent surgical correction of left ventricular aneurysms. METHODS: From January '90 to August '99, 94 patients - mean age 58.4 (ranging from 36 to 73 years), 65 (69.1%) males and 9 ( 30.8%) females - were operated upon. Pre-operative ejection fraction ranged from 0.22 to 0.58 (mean = 0.52), and the aneurysm was located in the antero-lateral area in 90.4% of the cases. Functional class III and IV (NYHA) was present in 82 (87.2%) patients, and 12 (12.7%) were in functional class I and II. Congestive heart failure was the most frequent cause (77.6%), occurring in isolation in 24.4% or associated with coronary artery diseases in 53.2%. RESULTS: Short-term follow-up showed a 7.4% mortality, and low cardiac output was the main cause of death. Coming off pump was uneventful in 73 patients (77.6%), with a 3.2% mortality and with the use of inotropics in 20 (21.3%). One patient (1%) did not come off the pump. CONCLUSION: Surgical correction was adequate in the immediate follow-up of operated patients, and mortality was higher in patients with higher functional class.

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Background:Heart transplantation is considered the gold standard therapy for the advanced heart failure, but donor shortage, especially in pediatric patients, is the main limitation for this procedure, so most sick patients die while waiting for the procedure.Objective:To evaluate the use of short-term circulatory support as a bridge to transplantation in end-stage cardiomyopathy.Methods:Retrospective clinical study. Between January 2011 and December 2013, 40 patients with cardiomyopathy were admitted in our Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, with a mean age of 4.5 years. Twenty patients evolved during hospitalization with clinical deterioration and were classified as Intermacs 1 and 2. One patient died within 24 hours and 19 could be stabilized and were listed. They were divided into 2 groups: A, clinical support alone and B, implantation of short-term circulatory support as bridge to transplantation additionally to clinical therapy.Results:We used short-term mechanical circulatory support as a bridge to transplantation in 9. In group A (n=10), eight died waiting and 2 patients (20%) were transplanted, but none was discharged. In group B (n=9), 6 patients (66.7%) were transplanted and three were discharged.The mean support time was 21,8 days (6 to 984h). The mean transplant waiting list time was 33,8 days. Renal failure and sepsis were the main complication and causeof death in group A while neurologic complications were more prevalent en group B.Conclusion:Mechanical circulatory support increases survival on the pediatric heart transplantation waiting list in patients classified as Intermacs 1 and 2.

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Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

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BACKGROUND: Highway maintenance workers are constantly and simultaneously exposed to traffic-related particle and noise emissions, and both have been linked to increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in population-based epidemiology studies. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate short-term health effects related to particle and noise exposure. METHODS: We monitored 18 maintenance workers, during as many as five 24-hour periods from a total of 50 observation days. We measured their exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ultrafine particles, noise, and the cardiopulmonary health endpoints: blood pressure, pro-inflammatory and pro-thrombotic markers in the blood, lung function and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measured approximately 15 hours post-work. Heart rate variability was assessed during a sleep period approximately 10 hours post-work. RESULTS: PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A, and negatively associated with tumor necrosis factor α. None of the particle metrics were significantly associated with von Willebrand factor or tissue factor expression. PM2.5 and work noise were associated with markers of increased heart rate variability, and with increased HF and LF power. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure on the following morning were significantly associated with noise exposure after work, and non-significantly associated with PM2.5. We observed no significant associations between any of the exposures and lung function or FeNO. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that exposure to particles and noise during highway maintenance work might pose a cardiovascular health risk. Actions to reduce these exposures could lead to better health for this population of workers.