Adaptación del sector turístico al cambio climático en España. La importancia de las acciones a escala local y en empresas turísticas

El 5º Informe del IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático, 2014) señala que el turismo será una de las actividades económicas que mayores efectos negativos experimentará en las próximas décadas debido al calentamiento térmico del planeta. En España, el turismo es una fuente principal de ingresos y de creación de puestos de trabajo en su economía. De ahí que sea necesaria la puesta en marcha de medidas de adaptación a la nueva realidad climática que, en nuestro país, va a suponer cambios en el confort climático de los destinos e incremento de extremos atmosféricos. Frente a los planes de adaptación al cambio climático en la actividad turística, elaborados por los gobiernos estatal y regional, que apenas se han desarrollado en España, la escala local muestra interesantes ejemplos de acciones de adaptación al cambio climático, desarrolladas tanto por los municipios (energía, transporte, vivienda, planificación urbanística) como por la propia empresa turística (hoteles, campings, apartamentos). Medidas de ahorro de agua y luz, fomento del transporte público y de las energías limpias, creación de zonas verdes urbanas y adaptación a los extremos atmosféricos destacan como acciones de mitigación del cambio climático en los destinos turísticos principales de nuestro país.

Energy systems analysis of transboundary river basins in a nexus approach: the Sava river basin study case

Resource management policies are frequently designed and planned to target specific needs of particular sectors, without taking into account the interests of other sectors who share the same resources. In a climate of resource depletion, population growth, increase in energy demand and climate change awareness, it is of great importance to promote the assessment of intersectoral linkages and, by doing so, understand their effects and implications. This need is further augmented when common use of resources might not be solely relevant at national level, but also when the distribution of resources ranges over different nations. This dissertation focuses on the study of the energy systems of five south eastern European countries, which share the Sava River Basin, using a water-food(agriculture)-energy nexus approach. In the case of the electricity generation sector, the use of water is essential for the integrity of the energy systems, as the electricity production in the riparian countries relies on two major technologies dependent on water resources: hydro and thermal power plants. For example, in 2012, an average of 37% of the electricity production in the SRB countries was generated by hydropower and 61% in thermal power plants. Focusing on the SRB, in terms of existing installed capacities, the basin accommodates close to a tenth of all hydropower capacity while providing water for cooling to 42% of the net capacity of thermal power currently in operation in the basin. This energy-oriented nexus study explores the dependency on the basin’s water resources of the energy systems in the region for the period between 2015 and 2030. To do so, a multi-country electricity model was developed to provide a quantification ground to the analysis, using the open-source software modelling tool OSeMOSYS. Three main areas are subject to analysis: first, the impact of energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies in the electricity generation mix; secondly, the potential impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the implications of the aforementioned factors in the electricity markets in the region.

Food and fuel microalgae applications: insights from portuguese experience [Resumo]

Microalgae have a wide range of application fields, from food to fuels, to pharmaceuticals & fine chemicals, aquaculture and environmental bioremediation, among others. Spirulina and Chlorella have been used as food sources since ancient times, due to their high and balanced nutritional value. Our research group in Lisbon has developed a range of food products (emulsions, gelled desserts, biscuits and pastas) enriched with freshwater and marine microalgae (Spirulina, Chlorella, Haematococcus, Isochrysis and Diacronema). The developed products presented attractive and stable colours, high resistance to oxidation and enhanced rheological properties. Some of these products will be prepared at the Post-Congress Course “Functional Foods Development” at the University of Antofagasta. More recently, a great interest has arisen on using microalgae for biofuel production. The same group has also been exploring several marine and freshwater species for biofuel production (e.g., biodiesel, bioethanol, biohydrogen and biomethane) within a biorefinery approach, in order to obtain high and low-value co-products using integral biomass maximizing the energy revenue. Namely, supercritical fluid extraction of Nannochloropsis sp. allowed the recovery of valuable carotenoids and lipids, prior to bioH2 production through dark fermentation of the residual biomass. Also, Scenedesmus obliquus residues after sugars (for bioethanol) and lipids (for biodiesel) extraction has been anaerobically digested attaining high biomethane yields. Regarding sustainability issues, the current trend of our group is now focused on using liquid effluents and high CO2 levels for low cost microalgae growth, contributing to a lower water demand, primary energy consumption and global warming potential by reducing the need for potable water and fertilizers (P, N) and increasing CO2 mitigation. Microalgae biomass has been successfully used for urban wastewater treatment with subsequent bioH2 production, in a biorefinery approach. Presently, ammonium-rich raw effluents from piggeries and poultry industry are being effectively used for microalgae growth avoiding any pre-treatment step.

Estudo de caso: minimização e reúso de água em shopping center da região sul do Brasil

The main issues related to water conservation in urban centers are the increase in water supply cost, demand growth, pollution and differences in the distribution of water resources. Water conservation, the controlled and efficient use of water, includes both measures as reasonable means of water reuse. Thus, conservation practices are an effective way to meet demand and supply water to new activities and users without jeopardizing the supplying water bodies and preserving the natural environment. This study aims to examine the water management of a shopping mall and the use of rainwater harvesting combined with greywater reuse. For buildings in general, water loss is common due to leaks in the hydraulic and restroom equipment. These losses, which are caused by a high volume of water used and wasted in the system, are often the result of design errors, incorrect maintenance procedures and users' bad habits In southern Brazil, where there is rainfall almost all year long, water shortages occasionally occur, particularly in some winter mouths. One difficulty that appears on rainwater studies is the proper determination of rainwater volume that can be used to address water supply systems. In this work, the simulation method was used to determine this volume. Thus, simulations with the following variables: rainfall, catchment area and water consumption were performed. For mall's hydraulic systems, segmented alternatives are adopted. That is, focusing on the use of rainwater or greywater reuse. Other alternatives of effluent reuse have been slightly discussed due to sanitary issues, those are effluents from toilets and kitchen sinks. The adoption of greywater may be feasible if there is a significant flow of greywater to comply water demand for toilet flushing. The inspections made in this study found that the quantity of sinks was insufficient to supply an adequate amount of water to toilets and urinals. The greywater reuse system was found to be infeasible in terms of demand and supply of water. Conversely, the rainwater harvesting system was entirely feasible and easily supplied water to all restrooms and contributed to the cooling of the air conditioning system with a short payback period. One of the challenges of this work was the need to compare the actual water consumption with a water consumption parameter used in buildings. Thus, a method that addresses the generation of specific consumption indexes for specific activity (like a mall) was used. The water consumption indices showed that this mall has a satisfactory water management program.

Stay-green Drought Adaptation Trait Enhances Sorghum Production in Sub-tropical Australia, Central-Western India and Sub-Saharan Africa

Drought during grain filling is a common challenge for sorghum production in north-eastern Australia, central-western India, and sub-Saharan Africa. We show that the stay-green drought adaptation trait enhances sorghum grain yield under post-anthesis drought in these three regions. A positive relationship between stay-green and yield was generally found in breeding trials in north-eastern Australia that sampled 1668 unique hybrid combinations and 23 environments. Physiological studies in Australia also found that introgressing four individual stay-green (Stg1–4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) into a senescent background reduced water demand before flowering and hence increased water supply during grain filling, resulting in higher grain yield relative to the senescent control. Studies in India found that various Stg QTLs affected both transpiration and transpiration efficiency, although these effects depended on the interaction between genetic background (S35 and R16) and individual QTLs. The yield variation unexplained by harvest index was related to transpiration efficiency in S35 (R2 = 0.29) and R16 (R2 = 0.72), and was related to total water extracted in S35 (R2 = 0.41) but not in R16. Finally, sixty-eight stay-green enriched lines were evaluated in six countries in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2013/14 season. Analysis of the data from Kenya indicates that stay-green and grain size were positively correlated at two sites: Kiboko (high yielding, r2=0.25) and Masongaleni (low yielding, r2=0.37). Together, these studies suggest that stay-green is a beneficial trait for sorghum production in the semi-arid tropics and is a consequence of traits altering the plant water budget.

Développement des bétons autoplaçants à faible teneur en poudre, Éco-BAP: formulation et performance

Abstract : Although concrete is a relatively green material, the astronomical volume of concrete produced worldwide annually places the concrete construction sector among the noticeable contributors to the global warming. The most polluting constituent of concrete is cement due to its production process which releases, on average, 0.83 kg CO[subscript 2] per kg of cement. Self-consolidating concrete (SCC), a type of concrete that can fill in the formwork without external vibration, is a technology that can offer a solution to the sustainability issues of concrete industry. However, all of the workability requirements of SCC originate from a higher powder content (compared to conventional concrete) which can increase both the cost of construction and the environmental impact of SCC for some applications. Ecological SCC, Eco-SCC, is a recent development combing the advantages of SCC and a significantly lower powder content. The maximum powder content of this concrete, intended for building and commercial construction, is limited to 315 kg/m[superscript 3]. Nevertheless, designing Eco-SCC can be challenging since a delicate balance between different ingredients of this concrete is required to secure a satisfactory mixture. In this Ph.D. program, the principal objective is to develop a systematic design method to produce Eco-SCC. Since the particle lattice effect (PLE) is a key parameter to design stable Eco-SCC mixtures and is not well understood, in the first phase of this research, this phenomenon is studied. The focus in this phase is on the effect of particle-size distribution (PSD) on the PLE and stability of model mixtures as well as SCC. In the second phase, the design protocol is developed, and the properties of obtained Eco-SCC mixtures in both fresh and hardened states are evaluated. Since the assessment of robustness is crucial for successful production of concrete on large-scale, in the final phase of this work, the robustness of one the best-performing mixtures of Phase II is examined. It was found that increasing the volume fraction of a stable size-class results in an increase in the stability of that class, which in turn contributes to a higher PLE of the granular skeleton and better stability of the system. It was shown that a continuous PSD in which the volume fraction of each size class is larger than the consecutive coarser class can increase the PLE. Using such PSD was shown to allow for a substantial increase in the fluidity of SCC mixture without compromising the segregation resistance. An index to predict the segregation potential of a suspension of particles in a yield stress fluid was proposed. In the second phase of the dissertation, a five-step design method for Eco-SCC was established. The design protocol started with the determination of powder and water contents followed by the optimization of sand and coarse aggregate volume fractions according to an ideal PSD model (Funk and Dinger). The powder composition was optimized in the third step to minimize the water demand while securing adequate performance in the hardened state. The superplasticizer (SP) content of the mixtures was determined in next step. The last step dealt with the assessment of the global warming potential of the formulated Eco-SCC mixtures. The optimized Eco-SCC mixtures met all the requirements of self-consolidation in the fresh state. The 28-day compressive strength of such mixtures complied with the target range of 25 to 35 MPa. In addition, the mixtures showed sufficient performance in terms of drying shrinkage, electrical resistivity, and frost durability for the intended applications. The eco-performance of the developed mixtures was satisfactory as well. It was demonstrated in the last phase that the robustness of Eco-SCC is generally good with regards to water content variations and coarse aggregate characteristics alterations. Special attention must be paid to the dosage of SP during batching.

Adaptação às alterações climáticas do plano de contingência do sistema multimunicipal de abastecimento de água do Algarve

Face ao aumento que se tem vindo a observar da população, especialmente a população flutuante, e a alteração nos hábitos de consumo de água, com destaque para os últimos 20 anos, a região do Algarve poderá enfrentar em anos secos um cenário onde a disponibilidade de recursos hídricos naturais seja reduzida face à procura. Em 2005 foi desenvolvido um plano de contingência para o Sistema Multimunicipal de Abastecimento de Água do Algarve (SMAAA). O plano prevê a possibilidade de reactivação de antigas captações subterrâneas municipais para reforço do abastecimento público em situações de contingência nesta região. A presente dissertação apresenta a avaliação dos principais impactos das projecções dos modelos de clima para o fim do século no SMAAA, nomeadamente ao nível da disponibilidade de água na origem e da procura de água para consumo humano, e a adaptação do plano de contingência face a esses impactos. /RESUME: Faced with a population increase, special one related with tourism, and also with changes in water consumption habits that has been occurring mostly in the last 20 years, the Algarve region in hydrologic dry years may face serious water shortage in a scenario where water resources are scarce. Being so, in 2005 a contingency plan was developed for the Algarve's Multimunicipal Bulk System (AMBS). The plan includes the possibility of reactivating old water capitations, to reinforce the water public distribution upon contingency situation in the region. The present dissertation evaluates the main impacts of the climatic change forecasted by model projections throughout the end of the century on the AMBS, Iooking more specifically at the water availability and the water demand for public consumption, and the adaptation of the contingency plan to those impacts.

UN PLAN PARA RECUPERAR LOS RÍOS Y ACUÍFEROS DEL VALLE CENTRAL

El mayor consumo de agua en Costa Rica ocurre en el Valle Central, pues ahíestá asentada cerca del 60% de la población del país. Sin embargo, la disponibilidad de agua está disminuyendo debido al crecimiento demográfico y al decreciente volumen de los ríos y aguas subterráneas.El Valle Central posee cerca de 57 ríos que podrían utilizarse como fuente de agua potable. pero sólo 10 de ellos tienen sus nacientes ubicadas en bosques primarios y son adecuadas para este fin. Las nacientes de la mayoría de los otros ríos se encuentran en tierras económicamente improductivas, tales como pastizales y áreas de bosques muy alterados, que pierden su volumen de agua durante la estación seca.Las proyecciones de crecimiento demográfico hasta el año 2100 permiten visualizar un marcado incremento en la demanda de agua, el cual se mantendrá durante los próximos 50 años. Consecuentemente, para proporcionar un adecuado suministro de agua para esta creciente población. es fundamental detener la contaminación de las aguas subterráneas y recobrar el volumen de agua de los ríos.En este trabajo se propone un plan sencillo para aumentar el volumen de agua de los ríos del Valle Central y para proteger nuestros acuíferos. Se mencionan también otros beneficios económicos y sociales que tendría la aplicación de esta propuesta.Abstract: About 60% of the popuiation of Costa Rica lives in the Central Valley where consequcntly occurs the highest water consumption. As a contrast water shortness is increasing in this country due to population growth and diminishing volume of river and subterranean water.There are about 57 rivers in the Central Valley that could be used as a source of water but only 10 of them have their headwaters inside primary forest and are appropriate for this purpose. The headwaters of mosi of the nvers lay in underproductive lands such as grass fields and very disturbed forest and bose their water volume during dry season.Population growth estimates until year 2100 allow foreseeing a high rate of increase in water demand for the next 50 years. In order to have an adequate supply of water for ihis expanding population it is mandatory to stop subterranean water pollution and to recovcr nver water volume.In this paper 1 propose a simple plan to augment the water volume of the headwaters of the rivers of the Central Valley and to protect our subterranean water sources. Other social and economic benefits that stem from this plan are also analyzed.

On the Democratization of AI: Bridging the Gap with AutoML

Riding the wave of recent groundbreaking achievements, artificial intelligence (AI) is currently the buzzword on everybody’s lips and, allowing algorithms to learn from historical data, Machine Learning (ML) emerged as its pinnacle. The multitude of algorithms, each with unique strengths and weaknesses, highlights the absence of a universal solution and poses a challenging optimization problem. In response, automated machine learning (AutoML) navigates vast search spaces within minimal time constraints. By lowering entry barriers, AutoML emerged as promising the democratization of AI, yet facing some challenges. In data-centric AI, the discipline of systematically engineering data used to build an AI system, the challenge of configuring data pipelines is rather simple. We devise a methodology for building effective data pre-processing pipelines in supervised learning as well as a data-centric AutoML solution for unsupervised learning. In human-centric AI, many current AutoML tools were not built around the user but rather around algorithmic ideas, raising ethical and social bias concerns. We contribute by deploying AutoML tools aiming at complementing, instead of replacing, human intelligence. In particular, we provide solutions for single-objective and multi-objective optimization and showcase the challenges and potential of novel interfaces featuring large language models. Finally, there are application areas that rely on numerical simulators, often related to earth observations, they tend to be particularly high-impact and address important challenges such as climate change and crop life cycles. We commit to coupling these physical simulators with (Auto)ML solutions towards a physics-aware AI. Specifically, in precision farming, we design a smart irrigation platform that: allows real-time monitoring of soil moisture, predicts future moisture values, and estimates water demand to schedule the irrigation.

A never-ending debate: Demand versus supply water policies. A CGE analysis for Catalonia

Water scarcity is a long-standing problem in Catalonia, as there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of water through the territory. There has consequently been a debate for many years about whether the solution to water scarcity must be considered in terms of efficiency or equity, the role that the public sector must play and the role that market-based instruments should play in water management. The aim of this paper is to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the advantages and disadvantages associated with different policy instruments, from both a supply and a demand viewpoint, which can be applied to water management in Catalonia. We also introduce an ecological sector in our CGE model, allowing us to analyze the environmental impact of the alternative policies simulated. The calibration of the exogenous variables of the CGE model is performed by using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. The results suggest that taking into account the principle of sustainability of the resource, the policy debate between supply and demand in water policies is obsolete, and a new combination of policies is required to respect the different values associated with water. Keywords: Water Policies; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Economic Effects; Environmental Effects.

Seasonal changes of whole root system conductance by a drought-tolerant grape root system

The role of root systems in drought tolerance is a subject of very limited information compared with above-ground responses. Adjustments to the ability of roots to supply water relative to shoot transpiration demand is proposed as a major means for woody perennial plants to tolerate drought, and is often expressed as changes in the ratios of leaf to root area (AL:AR). Seasonal root proliferation in a directed manner could increase the water supply function of roots independent of total root area (AR) and represents a mechanism whereby water supply to demand could be increased. To address this issue, seasonal root proliferation, stomatal conductance (gs) and whole root system hydraulic conductance (kr) were investigated for a drought-tolerant grape root system (Vitis berlandieri×V. rupestris cv. 1103P) and a non-drought-tolerant root system (Vitis riparia×V. rupestris cv. 101-14Mgt), upon which had been grafted the same drought-sensitive clone of Vitis vinifera cv. Merlot. Leaf water potentials (ψL) for Merlot grafted onto the 1103P root system (–0.91±0.02 MPa) were +0.15 MPa higher than Merlot on 101-14Mgt (–1.06±0.03 MPa) during spring, but dropped by approximately –0.4 MPa from spring to autumn, and were significantly lower by –0.15 MPa (–1.43±0.02 MPa) than for Merlot on 101-14Mgt (at –1.28±0.02 MPa). Surprisingly, gs of Merlot on the drought-tolerant root system (1103P) was less down-regulated and canopies maintained evaporative fluxes ranging from 35–20 mmol vine−1 s−1 during the diurnal peak from spring to autumn, respectively, three times greater than those measured for Merlot on the drought-sensitive rootstock 101-14Mgt. The drought-tolerant root system grew more roots at depth during the warm summer dry period, and the whole root system conductance (kr) increased from 0.004 to 0.009 kg MPa−1 s−1 during that same time period. The changes in kr could not be explained by xylem anatomy or conductivity changes of individual root segments. Thus, the manner in which drought tolerance was conveyed to the drought-sensitive clone appeared to arise from deep root proliferation during the hottest and driest part of the season, rather than through changes in xylem structure, xylem density or stomatal regulation. This information can be useful to growers on a site-specific basis in selecting rootstocks for grape clonal material (scions) grafted to them.

Improved understanding of drought controls on seasonal variation in Mediterranean forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes through combined in situ measurements and ecosystem modelling

Water stress is a defining characteristic of Mediterranean ecosystems, and is likely to become more severe in the coming decades. Simulation models are key tools for making predictions, but our current understanding of how soil moisture controls ecosystem functioning is not sufficient to adequately constrain parameterisations. Canopy-scale flux data from four forest ecosystems with Mediterranean-type climates were used in order to analyse the physiological controls on carbon and water flues through the year. Significant non-stomatal limitations on photosynthesis were detected, along with lesser changes in the conductance-assimilation relationship. New model parameterisations were derived and implemented in two contrasting modelling approaches. The effectiveness of two models, one a dynamic global vegetation model ('ORCHIDEE'), and the other a forest growth model particularly developed for Mediterranean simulations ('GOTILWA+'), was assessed and modelled canopy responses to seasonal changes in soil moisture were analysed in comparison with in situ flux measurements. In contrast to commonly held assumptions, we find that changing the ratio of conductance to assimilation under natural, seasonally-developing, soil moisture stress is not sufficient to reproduce forest canopy CO2 and water fluxes. However, accurate predictions of both CO2 and water fluxes under all soil moisture levels encountered in the field are obtained if photosynthetic capacity is assumed to vary with soil moisture. This new parameterisation has important consequences for simulated responses of carbon and water fluxes to seasonal soil moisture stress, and should greatly improve our ability to anticipate future impacts of climate changes on the functioning of ecosystems in Mediterranean-type climates.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.