Continental surface water and energy budgets in the XX and XXI centuries

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências Geofísicas e da Geoinformação (Meteorologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2015

Psychopathy and self-monitoring : additive and interactive effects on self-presentation tactics /

The purpose of this study was to determine the relative contributions of psychopathy and self-monitoring to the prediction of self-presentation tactics (behaviours that individuals use to manipulate their self-image). Psychopathy is composed of two main factors: Factor 1, which includes manipulativeness and shallow affect, and Factor 2, which includes irresponsibility and anti-social behaviours. Self-monitoring is a personality trait that distinguishes between those who adapt their behaviour to fit different social situations (high self-monitors) and those who behave as they feel regardless of social expectations (low selfmonitors). It was hypothesized that self-monitoring would moderate the relationship between psychopathy and self-presentation tactics. One hundred and forty-nine university students completed the Self-Monitoring Scale (Snyder, 1974), the Self-Report Psychopathy Scale - Version III (Paulhus et aI., in press), the Self-Presentation Tactics scale (Lee, S., et aI., 1999), the HEXACO-PI (a measure ofthe six major factors of personality; Lee, K., & Ashton, 2004), and six scenarios that were created as a supplementary measure of the selfpresentation tactics. Results of the hierarchical multiple regression analyses showed that self-monitoring did moderate the relationship between psychopathy and three of the selfpresentation tactics: apologies, disclaimers, and exemplification. Further, significant interactions were observed between Factor 1 and self-monitoring on apologies and the defensive tactics subscale, between Factor 2 and self-monitoring on self-handicapping, and between Factor 1 and Factor 2 on exemplification. Contrary to expectations, the main effect of self-monitoring was significant for the prediction of nine tactics, while psychopathy was significant for the prediction of seven tactics. This indicates that the role of these two personality traits in the explanation of self-presentation tactics tends to be additive in nature rather than interactive. In addition. Factor 2 alone did not account for a significant amount of variance in any of the tactics, while Factor 1 significantly predicted nine tactics. Results are discussed with regard to implications and possible directions for future research.

Frontal Lobe Function and Performance Monitoring following Total Sleep Deprivation

Imaging studies have shown reduced frontal lobe resources following total sleep deprivation (TSD). The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in the frontal region plays a role in performance monitoring and cognitive control; both error detection and response inhibition are impaired following sleep loss. Event-related potentials (ERPs) are an electrophysiological tool used to index the brain's response to stimuli and information processing. In the Flanker task, the error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe) ERPs are elicited after erroneous button presses. In a Go/NoGo task, NoGo-N2 and NoGo-P3 ERPs are elicited during high conflict stimulus processing. Research investigating the impact of sleep loss on ERPs during performance monitoring is equivocal, possibly due to task differences, sample size differences and varying degrees of sleep loss. Based on the effects of sleep loss on frontal function and prior research, it was expected that the sleep deprivation group would have lower accuracy, slower reaction time and impaired remediation on performance monitoring tasks, along with attenuated and delayed stimulus- and response-locked ERPs. In the current study, 49 young adults (24 male) were screened to be healthy good sleepers and then randomly assigned to a sleep deprived (n = 24) or rested control (n = 25) group. Participants slept in the laboratory on a baseline night, followed by a second night of sleep or wake. Flanker and Go/NoGo tasks were administered in a battery at 1O:30am (i.e., 27 hours awake for the sleep deprivation group) to measure performance monitoring. On the Flanker task, the sleep deprivation group was significantly slower than controls (p's <.05), but groups did not differ on accuracy. No group differences were observed in post-error slowing, but a trend was observed for less remedial accuracy in the sleep deprived group compared to controls (p = .09), suggesting impairment in the ability to take remedial action following TSD. Delayed P300s were observed in the sleep deprived group on congruent and incongruent Flanker trials combined (p = .001). On the Go/NoGo task, the hit rate (i.e., Go accuracy) was significantly lower in the sleep deprived group compared to controls (p <.001), but no differences were found on false alarm rates (i.e., NoGo Accuracy). For the sleep deprived group, the Go-P3 was significantly smaller (p = .045) and there was a trend for a smaller NoGo-N2 compared to controls (p = .08). The ERN amplitude was reduced in the TSD group compared to controls in both the Flanker and Go/NoGo tasks. Error rate was significantly correlated with the amplitude of response-locked ERNs in control (r = -.55, p=.005) and sleep deprived groups (r = -.46, p = .021); error rate was also correlated with Pe amplitude in controls (r = .46, p=.022) and a trend was found in the sleep deprived participants (r = .39, p =. 052). An exploratory analysis showed significantly larger Pe mean amplitudes (p = .025) in the sleep deprived group compared to controls for participants who made more than 40+ errors on the Flanker task. Altered stimulus processing as indexed by delayed P3 latency during the Flanker task and smaller amplitude Go-P3s during the Go/NoGo task indicate impairment in stimulus evaluation and / or context updating during frontal lobe tasks. ERN and NoGoN2 reductions in the sleep deprived group confirm impairments in the monitoring system. These data add to a body of evidence showing that the frontal brain region is particularly vulnerable to sleep loss. Understanding the neural basis of these deficits in performance monitoring abilities is particularly important for our increasingly sleep deprived society and for safety and productivity in situations like driving and sustained operations.

Long term trends of seasonal and monthly rainfall in different intensity ranges over Indian subcontinent

In general Indian summer monsoon rainfall did not show any significant trend in all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series, however, it was reported that the ISMR is subjected to spatial trends. This paper made an attempt to bring out long term trends of different intensity classes of summer monsoon rainfall in different regions of Indian subcontinent. The long term trend of seasonal and monthly rainfall were also made using the India Meteorological Department gridded daily rainfall data with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid for the period from 1st January, 1901 to 31st December, 2003. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend in southeast, northwest and northeast regions, whereas decreasing trend in the central and west coastal regions. In monthly scale, July rainfall shows decreasing trend over west coastal and central Indian regions and significant increasing trend over northeast region at 0.1% significant level. During the month August, decreasing trend is observed in the west coastal stations at 10% significant level. In most of the stations, mean daily rainfall shows an increasing trend for low and very high intense rainfall. For the moderate rainfall, the trend is different for different regions. In the central and southern regions the trend of moderate and moderately high classes show increasing trend. And for the high and very high intensity classes, the trend is decreasing significantly. In the northeastern regions, above 10 mm/day rainfall shows significantly increasing trend with 0.1% significant level.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Birding 2.0: Citizen Science and Effective Monitoring in the Web 2.0 World

The amateur birding community has a long and proud tradition of contributing to bird surveys and bird atlases. Coordinated activities such as Breeding Bird Atlases and the Christmas Bird Count are examples of "citizen science" projects. With the advent of technology, Web 2.0 sites such as eBird have been developed to facilitate online sharing of data and thus increase the potential for real-time monitoring. However, as recently articulated in an editorial in this journal and elsewhere, monitoring is best served when based on a priori hypotheses. Harnessing citizen scientists to collect data following a hypothetico-deductive approach carries challenges. Moreover, the use of citizen science in scientific and monitoring studies has raised issues of data accuracy and quality. These issues are compounded when data collection moves into the Web 2.0 world. An examination of the literature from social geography on the concept of "citizen sensors" and volunteered geographic information (VGI) yields thoughtful reflections on the challenges of data quality/data accuracy when applying information from citizen sensors to research and management questions. VGI has been harnessed in a number of contexts, including for environmental and ecological monitoring activities. Here, I argue that conceptualizing a monitoring project as an experiment following the scientific method can further contribute to the use of VGI. I show how principles of experimental design can be applied to monitoring projects to better control for data quality of VGI. This includes suggestions for how citizen sensors can be harnessed to address issues of experimental controls and how to design monitoring projects to increase randomization and replication of sampled data, hence increasing scientific reliability and statistical power.

Cloud properties and their seasonal and diurnal variability from TOVS path-B

Eight years of cloud properties retrieved from Television Infrared Observation Satellite-N (TIROS-N) Observational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations aboard the NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented. The relatively high spectral resolution of these instruments in the infrared allows especially reliable cirrus identification day and night. This dataset therefore provides complementary information to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). According to this dataset, cirrus clouds cover about 27% of the earth and 45% of the Tropics, whereas ISCCP reports 19% and 25%, respectively. Both global datasets agree within 5% on the amount of single-layer low clouds, at 30%. From 1987 to 1995, global cloud amounts remained stable to within 2%. The seasonal cycle of cloud amount is in general stronger than its diurnal cycle and it is stronger than the one of effective cloud amount, the latter the relevant variable for radiative transfer. Maximum effective low cloud amount over ocean occurs in winter in SH subtropics in the early morning hours and in NH midlatitudes without diurnal cycle. Over land in winter the maximum is in the early afternoon, accompanied in the midlatitudes by thin cirrus. Over tropical land and in the other regions in summer, the maximum of mesoscale high opaque clouds occurs in the evening. Cirrus also increases during the afternoon and persists during night and early morning. The maximum of thin cirrus is in the early afternoon, then decreases slowly while cirrus and high opaque clouds increase. TOVS extends information of ISCCP during night, indicating that high cloudiness, increasing during the afternoon, persists longer during night in the Tropics and subtropics than in midlatitudes. A comparison of seasonal and diurnal cycle of high cloud amount between South America, Africa, and Indonesia during boreal winter has shown strong similarities between the two land regions, whereas the Indonesian islands show a seasonal and diurnal behavior strongly influenced by the surrounding ocean. Deeper precipitation systems over Africa than over South America do not seem to be directly reflected in the horizontal coverage and mesoscale effective emissivity of high clouds.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability

The annual and interannual variability of idealized, linear, equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere is investigated using the temperature and velocity fields from the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset. Peak Kelvin wave activity occurs during solstice seasons at 100 hPa, during December-February at 70 hPa and in the easterly to westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase transition at 50 hPa. Peak Rossby-gravity wave activity occurs during equinox seasons at 100 hPa, during June-August/September-November at 70 hPa and in the westerly to easterly QBO phase transition at 50 hPa. Although neglect of wind shear means that the results for inertio-gravity waves are likely to be less accurate, they are still qualitatively reasonable and an annual cycle is observed in these waves at 100 hPa and 70 hPa. Inertio-gravity waves with n = 1 are correlated with the QBO at 50 hPa, but the eastward inertio-gravity n = 0 wave is not, due to its very fast vertical group velocity in all background winds. The relative importance of different wave types in driving the QBO at 50 hPa is also discussed. The strongest acceleration appears to be provided by the Kelvin wave while the acceleration provided by the Rossby-gravity wave is negligible. Of the higher-frequency waves, the westward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave appears able to contribute more to the acceleration of the 50 hPa mean zonal wind than the eastward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave.

Electrochemical and sonoelectrochemical monitoring of indigo reduction by glucose

The reduction of indigo (dispersed in water) to leuco-indigo (dissolved in water) is an important industrial process and investigated here for the case of glucose as an environmentally benign reducing agent. In order to quantitatively follow the formation of leuco-indigo two approaches based on (i) rotating disk voltammetry and (ii) sonovoltammetry are developed. Leuco-indigo, once formed in alkaline solution, is readily monitored at a glassy carbon electrode in the mass transport limit employing hydrodynamic voltammetry. The presence of power ultrasound further improves the leuco-indigo determination due to additional agitation and homogenization effects. While inactive at room temperature, glucose readily reduces indigo in alkaline media at 65 degrees C. In the presence of excess glucose, a surface dissolution kinetics limited process is proposed following the rate law d eta(leuco-indigo)/dt = k x c(OH-) x S-indigo where eta(leuco-indigo) is the amount of leuco-indigo formed, k = 4.1 x 10(-9) m s(-1) (at 65 degrees C, assuming spherical particles of I gm diameter) is the heterogeneous dissolution rate constant,c(OH-) is the concentration of hydroxide, and Sindigo is the reactive surface area. The activation energy for this process in aqueous 0.2 M NaOH is E-A = 64 U mol(-1) consistent with a considerable temperature effects. The redox mediator 1,8-dihydroxyanthraquinone is shown to significantly enhance the reaction rate by catalysing the electron transfer between glucose and solid indigo particles. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All fights reserved.

The dependence of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation on surface temperature and relative humidity

A simulation of the earth's clear-sky long-wave radiation budget is used to examine the dependence of clear-sky outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) on surface temperature and relative humidity. the simulation uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global reanalysed fields to calculate clear-sky OLR over the period from January 1979 to December 1993, thus allowing the seasonal and interannual time-scales to be resolved. the clear-sky OLR is shown to be primarily dependent on temperature changes at high latitudes and on changes in relative humidity at lower latitudes. Regions exhibiting a ‘super-greenhouse’ effect are identified and are explained by considering the changes in the convective regime associated with the Hadley circulation over the seasonal cycle, and with the Walker circulation over the interannual time-scale. the sensitivity of clear-sky OLR to changes in relative humidity diminishes with increasing relative humidity. This is explained by the increasing saturation of the water-vapour absorption bands with increased moisture. By allowing the relative humidity to vary in specified vertical slabs of the troposphere over an interannual time-scale it is shown that changes in humidity in the mid troposphere (400 to 700 hPa) are of most importance in explaining clear-sky OLR variations. Relative humidity variations do not appear to affect the positive thermodynamic water-vapour feedback significantly in response to surface temperature changes.

European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset

Vegetation distribution and state have been measured since 1981 by the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) instrument through satellite remote sensing. In this study a correction method is applied to the Pathfinder NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to create a continuous European vegetation phenology dataset of a 10-day temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution; additionally, land surface parameters for use in biosphere–atmosphere modelling are derived. The analysis of time-series from this dataset reveals, for the years 1982–2001, strong seasonal and interannual variability in European land surface vegetation state. Phenological metrics indicate a late and short growing season for the years 1985–1987, in addition to early and prolonged activity in the years 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995. These variations are in close agreement with findings from phenological measurements at the surface; spring phenology is also shown to correlate particularly well with anomalies in winter temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Nevertheless, phenological metrics, which display considerable regional differences, could only be determined for vegetation with a seasonal behaviour. Trends in the phenological phases reveal a general shift to earlier (−0.54 days year−1) and prolonged (0.96 days year−1) growing periods which are statistically significant, especially for central Europe.

Simulated and observed fluxes of sensible and latent heat and CO2 at the WLEF-TV tower using SiB2.5

Three years of meteorological data collected at the WLEF-TV tower were used to drive a revised version of the Simple Biosphere (SiB 2.5) Model. Physiological properties and vegetation phenology were specified from satellite imagery. Simulated fluxes of heat, moisture, and carbon were compared to eddy covariance measurements taken onsite as a means of evaluating model performance on diurnal, synoptic, seasonal, and interannual time scales. The model was very successful in simulating variations of latent heat flux when compared to observations, slightly less so in the simulation of sensible heat flux. The model overestimated peak values of sensible heat flux on both monthly and diurnal scales. There was evidence that the differences between observed and simulated fluxes might be linked to wetlands near the WLEF tower, which were not present in the SiB simulation. The model overestimated the magnitude of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 in both summer and winter. Mid-day maximum assimilation was well represented by the model, but late afternoon simulations showed excessive carbon uptake due to misrepresentation of within-canopy shading in the model. Interannual variability was not well simulated because only a single year of satellite imagery was used to parameterize the model.

Model simulations and aircraft measurements of vertical, seasonal and latitudinal O3 and CO distributions over Europe

During a series of 8 measurement campaigns within the SPURT project (2001-2003), vertical profiles of CO and O3 have been obtained at subtropical, middle and high latitudes over western Europe, covering the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere up to ~14 km altitude during all seasons. The seasonal and latitudinal variation of the measured trace gas profiles are compared to simulations with the chemical transport model MATCH. In the troposphere reasonable agreement between observations and model predictions is achieved for CO and O3, in particular at subtropical and mid-latitudes, while the model overestimates (underestimates) CO (O3 in the lowermost stratosphere particularly at high latitudes, indicating too strong simulated bi-directional exchange across the tropopause. By the use of tagged tracers in the model, long-range transport of Asian air masses is identified as the dominant source of CO pollution over Europe in the free troposphere.