A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

The scientific legacy of the "Instituto Eduardo Torroja" in Bilbao (1960-1980)

By means of this analysis, we have endeavored to evaluate and understand both the influence that the IETcc started to bear on scientific progress in Bilbao, mainly during the 1960s and the 1970s, as well as the determined efforts of the local financial and industrial elite of the time to transform Bilbao into the great metropolis of the north, i.e. the economic capital of that part of Spain, using as a model, among other metropolises, New York, the financial capital of America, and Pittsburg, the industrial capital. The various means to accomplish this have been studied: from the institutions of investigation, exposition and information which would initiate the longed for scientific progress, to the pathways for reproducing the fascinating American way.

Scientific assessment of hypoxia in U.S. coastal waters

The occurrence of hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen, is increasing in coastal waters worldwide and represents a significant threat to the health and economy of our Nation’s coasts and Great Lakes. This trend is exemplified most dramatically off the coast of Louisiana and Texas, where the second largest eutrophication-related hypoxic zone in the world is associated with the nutrient pollutant load discharged by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers. Aquatic organisms require adequate dissolved oxygen to survive. The term “dead zone” is often used in reference to the absence of life (other than bacteria) from habitats that are devoid of oxygen. The inability to escape low oxygen areas makes immobile species, such as oysters and mussels, particularly vulnerable to hypoxia. These organisms can become stressed and may die due to hypoxia, resulting in significant impacts on marine food webs and the economy. Mobile organisms can flee the affected area when dissolved oxygen becomes too low. Nevertheless, fish kills can result from hypoxia, especially when the concentration of dissolved oxygen drops rapidly. New research is clarifying when hypoxia will cause fish kills as opposed to triggering avoidance behavior by fish. Further, new studies are better illustrating how habitat loss associated with hypoxia avoidance can impose ecological and economic costs, such as reduced growth in commercially harvested species and loss of biodiversity, habitat, and biomass. Transient or “diel-cycling” hypoxia, where conditions cycle from supersaturation of oxygen late in the afternoon to hypoxia or anoxia near dawn, most often occurs in shallow, eutrophic systems (e.g., nursery ground habitats) and may have pervasive impacts on living resources because of both its location and frequency of occurrence.

Scientific assessment of marine harmful algal blooms

Algae are the most abundant photosynthetic organisms in marine ecosystems and are essential components of marine food webs. Harmful algal bloom or “HAB” species are a small subset of algal species that negatively impact humans or the environment. HABs can pose health hazards for humans or animals through the production of toxins or bioactive compounds. They also can cause deterioration of water quality through the buildup of high biomass, which degrades aesthetic, ecological, and recreational values. Humans and animals can be exposed to marine algal toxins through their food, the water in which they swim, or sea spray. Symptoms from toxin exposure range from neurological impairment to gastrointestinal upset to respiratory irritation, in some cases resulting in severe illness and even death. HABs can also result in lost revenue for coastal economies dependent on seafood harvest or tourism, disruption of subsistence activities, loss of community identity tied to coastal resource use, and disruption of social and cultural practices. Although economic impact assessments to date have been limited in scope, it has been estimated that the economic effects of marine HABs in U.S. communities amount to at least $82 million per year including lost income for fisheries, lost recreational opportunities, decreased business in tourism industries, public health costs of illness, and expenses for monitoring and management. As reviewed in the report, Harmful Algal Research and Response: A Human Dimensions Strategy1, the sociocultural impacts of HABs may be significant, but remain mostly undocumented.

Scientific assessment of freshwater harmful algal blooms

In 2004, Congress reauthorized the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act of 1998 with the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Amendments Act (HABHRCA 2004). The 2004 legislation required the generation of five reports, including this "Scientific Assessment of Freshwater Harmful Algal Blooms." HABHRCA 2004 stipulates that this report 1) examine the causes, consequences, and economic costs of freshwater HABs, 2) establish priorities and guidelines for a research program on freshwater HABs, and 3) make recommendations to improve coordination among Federal agencies with respect to research on HABs in freshwater environments. This report is divided into five chapters: Chapter 1 provides the legislative background and process for developing the report, Chapter 2 describes the problem of freshwater and inland HABs in the United States, Chapter 3 outlines the current Federal efforts in freshwater and inland HAB research and response, Chapter 4 discusses the future research priorities, and Chapter 5 delineates opportunities for coordination to advance research efforts. The document is based, in large part, on the proceedings (Hudnell 2008) of the International Symposium on Cyanobacterial Harmful Algal Blooms, a meeting convened by EPA and sponsored by a variety of Federal agencies, to describe current scientific knowledge and identify priorities for future research on CyanoHABs. This report offers a plan for coordinating the important research that is currently ongoing in the United States and for guiding future research directions for Federal programs as well as for state, local, private, and academic institutions in order to maximize advancements. To this end, the Interagency Working Group on Harmful Algal Blooms, Hypoxia, and Human Health (IWG-4H) identifies seven priorities, all of equal weight, for freshwater HAB research and response. These priorities represent research areas where there is the greatest potential for progress in freshwater HAB research. This report does not attempt to assess the relative importance of freshwater HAB research compared to other research areas or other priorities for Federal or state investment.

Scientific statistics and graphics on the Macintosh

The personal computer has become commonplace on the desk of most scientists. As hardware costs have plummeted, software capabilities have expanded enormously, permitting the scientist to examine extremely large datasets in novel ways. Advances in networking now permit rapid transfer of large datasets, which can often be used unchanged from one machine to the next. In spite of these significant advances, many scientists still use their personal computers only for word processing or e-mail, or as "dumb terminals". Many are simply unaware of the richness of software now available to statistically analyze and display scientific data in highly innovative ways. This paper presents several examples drawn from actual climate data analysis that illustrate some novel and practical features of several widely-used software packages for Macintosh computers.

Catalogue of EAFFRO scientific archives

Besides the formal publications held in the library (books, annual reports. Journals and reprints) a considerable quantity of unpublished Information on subjects relevant to freshwater fisheries in East Africa is held on various departmental files, etc.in Jinja. This material is extremely valuable: firstly because it is usually of immediate reference to current research work at EAFFRO, and secondly because it usually exists only as original material: no other copies are available elsewhere.