Climate impact studies of sediment transport on the Adriatic coastal zone

The study of the impact of climate change on the environment has been based, until very recently, on an global approach, whose interest from a local point of view is very limited. This thesis, on the contrary, has treated the study of the impact of climate change in the Adriatic Sea basin following a twofold strategy of regionalization and integration of numerical models in order to reproduce the present and future scenarios of the system through a more and more realistic and solid approach. In particular the focus of the study was on the impact on the physical environment and on the sediment transport in the basin. This latter is a very new and original issue, to our knowledge still uninvestigated. The study case of the coastal area of Montenegro was particularly studied, since it is characterized by an important supply of sediment through the Buna/Bojana river, second most important in the Adriatic basin in terms of flow. To do this, a methodology to introduce the tidal processes in a baroclinic primitive equations Ocean General Circulation Model was applied and tidal processes were successfully reproduced in the Adriatic Sea, analyzing also the impacts they have on the mean general circulation, on salt and heat transport and on mixing and stratification of the water column in the different seasons of the year. The new hydrodynamical model has been further coupled with a wave model and with a river and sea sediment transport model, showing good results in the reproduction of sediment transport processes. Finally this complex coupled platform was integrated in the period 2001-2030 under the A1B scenario of IPCC, and the impact of climate change on the physical system and on sediment transport was preliminarily evaluated.

Reconstruction of Etna recent flank eruptions for assessing diversion barrier project

The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.

From fossil to sustainable diets: an assessment of farming energy footprint

The dependence of industrial agricolture on fossil fuels has been assessed in two comparative case studies between Italy (Emilia-Romagna and Piemonte)and Missouri. The first is related to dairy farming; 15 different farms were surveyed, divided into three different groups: grain based, pasture based and organic. The second is devoted to rice cropping; 12 holdings were examined divided into two groups: conventional and organic. Energy footprint was determined for structures, machinery, fertilizers, pesticides, fuel, electricity, feed and seeds. Possible scenarios of transition to a more sustainable agricolture based on renewable energy sources were analized in detail for all the farms analized.

A review of the cost effectiveness of bisphosphonates in the treatment of post-menopausal osteoporosis in Switzerland

The economic burden associated with osteoporosis is considerable. As such, cost-effectiveness analyses are important contributors to the diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making process. The aim of this study was to review the cost effectiveness of treating post-menopausal osteoporosis with bisphosphonates and identify the key factors that influence the cost effectiveness of such treatment in the Swiss setting. A systematic search of databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) was conducted to identify published literature on the cost effectiveness of bisphosphonates in post-menopausal osteoporosis in the Swiss setting. Outcomes were compared with similar studies in Western European countries. Three cost-effectiveness studies of bisphosphonates in this patient population were identified; all were from a healthcare payer perspective. Outcomes showed that, relative to no treatment, treatment with oral bisphosphonates was predicted to be cost saving for most women aged ≥70 years with osteoporosis or at least one risk factor for fracture, and cost effective for women aged ≥75 years without prior fracture when used as a component of a population-based screen-and-treat programme. Results were most sensitive to changes in fracture risk, cost of fractures, cost of treatment, nursing home admissions and adherence with treatment. Swiss results were generally comparable to those in other European settings. Assuming similar clinical efficacy, lowering treatment cost (through the use of price-reduced brand-name or generic drugs) and/or improving adherence should both contribute to further improving the cost effectiveness of bisphosphonates in women with post-menopausal osteoporosis. Published evidence indicates that bisphosphonates are estimated to be similarly cost effective or cost saving in most treatment scenarios of post-menopausal osteoporosis in Switzerland and in neighbouring European countries.

Statistical evaluation of alternative models of human evolution

An appropriate model of recent human evolution is not only important to understand our own history, but it is necessary to disentangle the effects of demography and selection on genome diversity. Although most genetic data support the view that our species originated recently in Africa, it is still unclear if it completely replaced former members of the Homo genus, or if some interbreeding occurred during its range expansion. Several scenarios of modern human evolution have been proposed on the basis of molecular and paleontological data, but their likelihood has never been statistically assessed. Using DNA data from 50 nuclear loci sequenced in African, Asian and Native American samples, we show here by extensive simulations that a simple African replacement model with exponential growth has a higher probability (78%) as compared with alternative multiregional evolution or assimilation scenarios. A Bayesian analysis of the data under this best supported model points to an origin of our species approximately 141 thousand years ago (Kya), an exit out-of-Africa approximately 51 Kya, and a recent colonization of the Americas approximately 10.5 Kya. We also find that the African replacement model explains not only the shallow ancestry of mtDNA or Y-chromosomes but also the occurrence of deep lineages at some autosomal loci, which has been formerly interpreted as a sign of interbreeding with Homo erectus.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.

Quantitative comparison of 3 enamel-stripping devices in vitro: how precisely can we strip teeth?

INTRODUCTION In this in-vitro study, we aimed to investigate the predictability of the expected amount of stripping using 3 common stripping devices on premolars. METHODS One hundred eighty extracted premolars were mounted and aligned in silicone. Tooth mobility was tested with Periotest (Medizintechnik Gulden, Modautal, Germany) (8.3 ± 2.8 units). The selected methods for interproximal enamel reduction were hand-pulled strips (Horico, Hapf Ringleb & Company, Berlin, Germany), oscillating segmental disks (O-drive-OD 30; KaVo Dental, Biberach, Germany), and motor-driven abrasive strips (Orthofile; SDC Switzerland, Lugano-Grancia, Switzerland). With each device, the operator intended to strip 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, or 0.4 mm on the mesial side of 15 teeth. The teeth were scanned before and after stripping with a 3-dimensional laser scanner. Superposition and measurement of stripped enamel on the most mesial point of the tooth were conducted with Viewbox software (dHal Software, Kifissia, Greece). The Wilcoxon signed rank test and the Kruskal-Wallis test were applied; statistical significance was set at alpha ≤ 0.05. RESULTS Large variations between the intended and the actual amounts of stripped enamel, and between stripping procedures, were observed. Significant differences were found at 0.1 mm of intended stripping (P ≤ 0.05) for the hand-pulled method and at 0.4 mm of intended stripping (P ≤ 0.001 to P = 0.05) for all methods. For all scenarios of enamel reduction, the actual amount of stripping was less than the predetermined and expected amount of stripping. The Kruskal-Wallis analysis showed no significant differences between the 3 methods. CONCLUSIONS There were variations in the stripped amounts of enamel, and the stripping technique did not appear to be a significant predictor of the actual amount of enamel reduction. In most cases, actual stripping was less than the intended amount of enamel reduction.

Theories of Militancy in Practice: Explanations of Muslim Terrorism in India

This article analyzes the interaction between theories of radicalization and state responses to militancy in India. Focusing on the interpretation of the increased frequency of terrorist attacks in Indian metropolises in the last decade, the article examines the narratives surrounding those classified as terrorists in the context of rising Muslim militancy in the country. Different state agencies operate with different theories about the links between processes of radicalization and terrorist violence. The scenarios of radicalization underlying legislative efforts to prevent terrorism, the construction of motives by the police, and the interpretation of violence by the judiciary all rely on assumptions about radicalization and violence. Such narratives are used to explain terrorism both to security agencies and to the public; they inform the categories and scenarios of prevention. Prevention relies on detection of future deeds, planning, intentions, and even potential intentions. "Detection" of potential intentions relies on assumptions about specific dispositions. Identification of such dispositions in turn relies on the context-specific theories of the causes of militancy. These determine what "characteristics" of individuals or groups indicate potential threats and form the basis for their categorization as "potentially dangerous." The article explores the cultural contexts of theories of radicalization, focusing on how they are framed by societal understandings of the causes of deviance and the relation between the individual and society emerging in contemporary India. It examines the shift in the perception of threat and the categories of "dangerous others" from a focus on role to a focus on ascriptive identity.

Identification of erosional mechanisms during past glaciations based on a bedrock surface model of the central European Alps

The bedrock topography beneath the Quaternary cover provides an important archive for the identification of erosional processes during past glaciations. Here, we combined stratigraphic investigations of more than 40,000 boreholes with published data to generate a bedrock topography model for the entire plateau north of the Swiss Alps including the valleys within the mountain belt. We compared the bedrock map with data about the pattern of the erosional resistance of Alpine rocks to identify the controls of the lithologic architecture on the location of overdeepenings. We additionally used the bedrock topography map as a basis to calculate the erosional potential of the Alpine glaciers, which was related to the thickness of the LGM ice. We used these calculations to interpret how glaciers, with support by subglacial meltwater under pressure, might have shaped the bedrock topography of the Alps. We found that the erosional resistance of the bedrock lithology mainly explains where overdeepenings in the Alpine valleys and the plateau occur. In particular, in the Alpine valleys, the locations of overdeepenings largely overlap with areas where the underlying bedrock has a low erosional resistance, or where it was shattered by faults. We also found that the assignment of two end-member scenarios of erosion, related to glacial abrasion/plucking in the Alpine valleys, and dissection by subglacial meltwater in the plateau, may be adequate to explain the pattern of overdeepenings in the Alpine realm. This most likely points to the topographic controls on glacial scouring. In the Alps, the flow of LGM and previous glaciers were constrained by valley flanks, while ice flow was mostly divergent on the plateau where valley borders are absent. We suggest that these differences in landscape conditioning might have contributed to the contrasts in the formation of overdeepenings in the Alpine valleys and the plateau.

The Integration of Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in the European Union Electricity Market – The case for “Smart Grids”

The power sector is to play a central role in a low carbon economy. In all the decarbonisation scenarios of the European Union renewable energy sources (RES) will be a crucial part of the solution. Current grids constitute however major bottlenecks for the future expansion of RES. Recognising the need for a modernisation of its grids, the European Union has called for the creation of a "smart supergrid" interconnecting European grids at the continental level and making them "intelligent" through the addition of information and communication technology (ICT). To implement its agenda the EU has taken a leading role in coordinating research efforts and creating a common legislative framework for the necessary modernisation of Europe’s grids. This paper intends to give both an overview and a critical appraisal of the measures taken so far by the European Union to "transform" the grids into the backbone of a decarbonised electricity system. It suggests that if competition is to play a significant role in the deployment of smart grids, the current regulatory paradigm will have to be fundamentally reassessed

Personalized Tuning of a Reinforcement Learning Control Algorithm for Glucose Regulation

Artificial pancreas is in the forefront of research towards the automatic insulin infusion for patients with type 1 diabetes. Due to the high inter- and intra-variability of the diabetic population, the need for personalized approaches has been raised. This study presents an adaptive, patient-specific control strategy for glucose regulation based on reinforcement learning and more specifically on the Actor-Critic (AC) learning approach. The control algorithm provides daily updates of the basal rate and insulin-to-carbohydrate (IC) ratio in order to optimize glucose regulation. A method for the automatic and personalized initialization of the control algorithm is designed based on the estimation of the transfer entropy (TE) between insulin and glucose signals. The algorithm has been evaluated in silico in adults, adolescents and children for 10 days. Three scenarios of initialization to i) zero values, ii) random values and iii) TE-based values have been comparatively assessed. The results have shown that when the TE-based initialization is used, the algorithm achieves faster learning with 98%, 90% and 73% in the A+B zones of the Control Variability Grid Analysis for adults, adolescents and children respectively after five days compared to 95%, 78%, 41% for random initialization and 93%, 88%, 41% for zero initial values. Furthermore, in the case of children, the daily Low Blood Glucose Index reduces much faster when the TE-based tuning is applied. The results imply that automatic and personalized tuning based on TE reduces the learning period and improves the overall performance of the AC algorithm.

BCL2 mutation spectrum in B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphomas and patterns associated with evolution of follicular lymphoma

BCL2 is a target of somatic hypermutation in t(14;18) positive and also in a small fraction of t(14;18) negative diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), suggesting an aberrant role of somatic hypermutation (ASHM). To elucidate the prevalence of BCL2 mutations in lymphomas other than DLBCL, we Sanger-sequenced the hypermutable region of the BCL2 gene in a panel of 69 mature B-cell lymphomas, including Richter's syndrome DLBCL, marginal-zone lymphomas, post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorders, HIV-associated and common-variable immunodeficiency-associated DLBCL, all known to harbour ASHM-dependent mutations in other genes, as well as 16 t(14,18) negative and 21 t(14;18) positive follicular lymphomas (FLs). We also investigated the pattern of BCL2 mutations in longitudinal samples from 10 FL patients relapsing to FL or transforming to DLBCL (tFL). By direct sequencing, we found clonally represented BCL2 mutations in 2/16 (13%) of t(14;18) negative FLs, 2/16 (13%) HIV-DLBCLs, 1/9 (11%) of Richter's syndrome DLBCL, 1/17 (6%) of post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorders and 1/2 (50%) common-variable immunodeficiency-associated DLBCL. The proportion of mutated cases was significantly lower than in FLs carrying the t(14;18) translocation (15/21, 71%). However, the absence of t(14;18) by FISH or PCR and the molecular features of the mutations strongly suggest that BCL2 represents an additional target of ASHM in these entities. Analysis of the BCL2 mutation pattern in clonally related FL/FL and FL/tFL samples revealed two distinct scenarios of genomic evolution: (i) direct evolution from the antecedent FL clone, with few novel clonal mutations acquired by the tFL major clone, and (ii) evolution from a common mutated long-lived progenitor cell, which subsequently acquired distinct mutations in the FL and in the relapsed or transformed counterpart. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Search for direct production of charginos, neutralinos and sleptons in final states with two leptons and missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Searches for the electroweak production of charginos, neutralinos and sleptons in final states characterized by the presence of two leptons (electrons and muons) and missing transverse momentum are performed using 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at ps = 8TeV recorded with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess beyond Standard Model expectations is observed. Limits are set on the masses of the lightest chargino, next-to-lightest neutralino and sleptons for different lightest-neutralino mass hypotheses in simplified models. Results are also interpreted in various scenarios of the phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model.