Processes of 30-90 days sea surface temperature variability in the northern Indian Ocean during boreal summer

During summer, the northern Indian Ocean exhibits significant atmospheric intraseasonal variability associated with active and break phases of the monsoon in the 30-90 days band. In this paper, we investigate mechanisms of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) signature of this atmospheric variability, using a combination of observational datasets and Ocean General Circulation Model sensitivity experiments. In addition to the previously-reported intraseasonal SST signature in the Bay of Bengal, observations show clear SST signals in the Arabian Sea related to the active/break cycle of the monsoon. As the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation moves northward, SST variations appear first at the southern tip of India (day 0), then in the Somali upwelling region (day 10), northern Bay of Bengal (day 19) and finally in the Oman upwelling region (day 23). The Bay of Bengal and Oman signals are most clearly associated with the monsoon active/break index, whereas the relationship with signals near Somali upwelling and the southern tip of India is weaker. In agreement with previous studies, we find that heat flux variations drive most of the intraseasonal SST variability in the Bay of Bengal, both in our model (regression coefficient, 0.9, against similar to 0.25 for wind stress) and in observations (0.8 regression coefficient); similar to 60% of the heat flux variation is due do shortwave radiation and similar to 40% due to latent heat flux. On the other hand, both observations and model results indicate a prominent role of dynamical oceanic processes in the Arabian Sea. Wind-stress variations force about 70-100% of SST intraseasonal variations in the Arabian Sea, through modulation of oceanic processes (entrainment, mixing, Ekman pumping, lateral advection). Our similar to 100 km resolution model suggests that internal oceanic variability (i.e. eddies) contributes substantially to intraseasonal variability at small-scale in the Somali upwelling region, but does not contribute to large-scale intraseasonal SST variability due to its small spatial scale and random phase relation to the active-break monsoon cycle. The effect of oceanic eddies; however, remains to be explored at a higher spatial resolution.

Monsoon circulation interaction with Western Ghats orography under changing climate - Projection by a 20-km mesh AGCM

In this study, the authors have investigated the likely future changes in the summer monsoon over the Western Ghats (WG) orographic region of India in response to global warming, using time-slice simulations of an ultra high-resolution global climate model and climate datasets of recent past. The model with approximately 20-km mesh horizontal resolution resolves orographic features on finer spatial scales leading to a quasi-realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of the present-day summer monsoon rainfall over India and trends in monsoon rainfall over the west coast of India. As a result, a higher degree of confidence appears to emerge in many aspects of the 20-km model simulation, and therefore, we can have better confidence in the validity of the model prediction of future changes in the climate over WG mountains. Our analysis suggests that the summer mean rainfall and the vertical velocities over the orographic regions of Western Ghats have significantly weakened during the recent past and the model simulates these features realistically in the present-day climate simulation. Under future climate scenario, by the end of the twenty-first century, the model projects reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghats south of 16A degrees N that is found to be associated with drastic reduction in the southwesterly winds and moisture transport into the region, weakening of the summer mean meridional circulation and diminished vertical velocities. We show that this is due to larger upper tropospheric warming relative to the surface and lower levels, which decreases the lapse rate causing an increase in vertical moist static stability (which in turn inhibits vertical ascent) in response to global warming. Increased stability that weakens vertical velocities leads to reduction in large-scale precipitation which is found to be the major contributor to summer mean rainfall over WG orographic region. This is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy rainfall days over WG which is a typical manifestation of the decrease in large-scale precipitation over this region. Thus, the drastic reduction of vertical ascent and weakening of circulation due to `upper tropospheric warming effect' predominates over the `moisture build-up effect' in reducing the rainfall over this narrow orographic region. This analysis illustrates that monsoon rainfall over mountainous regions is strongly controlled by processes and parameterized physics which need to be resolved with adequately high resolution for accurate assessment of local and regional-scale climate change.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

A modeling study of the processes of surface salinity seasonal cycle in the Bay of Bengal

In response to the Indian Monsoon freshwater forcing, the Bay of Bengal exhibits a very strong seasonal cycle in sea surface salinity (SSS), especially near the mouths of the Ganges-Brahmaputra and along the east coast of India. In this paper, we use an eddy-permitting (similar to 25 km resolution) regional ocean general circulation model simulation to quantify the processes responsible for this SSS seasonal cycle. Despite the absence of relaxation toward observations, the model reproduces the main features of the observed SSS seasonal cycle, with freshest water in the northeastern Bay, particularly during and after the monsoon. The model also displays an intense and shallow freshening signal in a narrow (similar to 100 km wide) strip that hugs the east coast of India, from September to January, in good agreement with high-resolution measurements along two ships of opportunity lines. The mixed layer salt budget confirms that the strong freshening in the northern Bay during the monsoon results from the Ganges-Brahmaputra river discharge and from precipitation over the ocean. From September onward, the East India Coastal Current transports this freshwater southward along the east coast of India, reaching the southern tip of India in November. The surface freshening results in an enhanced vertical salinity gradient that increases salinity of the surface layer by vertical processes. Our results reveal that the erosion of the freshwater tongue along the east coast of India is not driven by northward horizontal advection, but by vertical processes that eventually overcome the freshening by southward advection and restore SSS to its premonsoon values. The salinity-stratified barrier layer hence only acts as a ``barrier'' for vertical heat fluxes, but is associated with intense vertical salt fluxes in the Bay of Bengal.

Impact of diurnal forcing on intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

The diurnal cycle is an important mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, influencing air-sea interaction and climate variability. Upper ocean mixing mechanisms are significant at diurnal time scales controlling the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of SST. Sensitivity experiments using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) for the summer monsoon of the year 2007 show that incorporation of diurnal cycle in the model atmospheric forcings improves the SST simulation at both intraseasonal and shorter time scales in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The increase in SST-ISV amplitudes with diurnal forcing is approximate to 0.05 degrees C in the southern bay while it is approximate to 0.02 degrees C in the northern bay. Increased intraseasonal warming with diurnal forcing results from the increase in mixed layer heat gain from insolation, due to shoaling of the daytime mixed layer. Amplified intraseasonal cooling is dominantly controlled by the strengthening of subsurface processes owing to the nocturnal deepening of mixed layer. In the southern bay, intraseasonal variability is mainly determined by the diurnal cycle in insolation, while in the northern bay, diurnal cycle in insolation and winds have comparable contributions. Temperature inversions (TI) develop in the northern bay in the absence of diurnal variability in wind stress. In the northern bay, SST-ISV amplification is not as large as that in the southern bay due to the weaker diurnal variability of mixed layer depth (MLD) limited by salinity stratification. Diurnal variability of model MLD is not sufficient to create large modifications in mixed layer heat budget and SST-ISV in the northern bay.

Kinetic measurements of cell surface E-selectin/carbohydrate ligand interactions

Selectin/ligand interactions initiate the multistep adhesion and signaling cascades in the recruitment of leukocytes from circulation to inflamed tissues and may also play a role in tumor metastasis. Kinetic properties of these interactions are essential determinants governing blood-borne cells' tethering to and rolling on the vessel wall. Extending our recently developed micropipette method, we have measured the kinetic rates of E-selectin/ligand interactions. Red cells coated with an E-selectin construct were allowed to bind HL-60 or Colo-205 cells bearing carbohydrate ligands. Specific adhesions were observed to occur at isolated points, the frequency of which followed a Poisson distribution. These point attachments were formed at the same rate with both the HL-60 and Colo-205 cells (0.14 +/- 0.04 and 0.13 +/- 0.03 mum(2) s(-1) per unit density of E-selectin, respectively) but dissociated from the former at a rate twice as fast as did from the latter (0.92 +/- 0.23 and 0.44 +/- 0.10 s(-1), respectively). The reverse rates agree well with those measured by the flow chamber. The forward rates are orders of magnitude higher than those of Fc gamma receptors interacting with IgG measured under similar conditions, consistent with the rapid kinetics requirement for the function of E-selectin/ligand binding, which is to capture leukocytes on endothelial surfaces from flow.

A ground hydrologic model with inclusion of a layer of vegetation canopy that can interact with general-circulation model

In this paper, a ground hydrologic model(GHM) is presented in which the vapor, heat and momentum exchanges between ground surface covers (including vegetation canopy) and atmosphere is described more realistically. The model is used to simulate three sets of field data and results from the numerical simulation agree with the field data well. GHM has been tested using input data generated by general circulation model (GCM) runs for both the North American regions and the Chinese regions, The results from GHM are quite different from those of GHMs in GCMs. It shows that a more active concerted effort on the land surface process study to provide a physically realistic GHM for predicting the exchange between land and atmosphere is important and necessary.

Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic beta effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

Variabilité, circulation et chlorophylle dans la région du Dôme d'Angola en février-mars 1971

In February-March 1971 the hydrological conditions off Angola did not display the thermal dome mapped by Mazeika's averages (1967). Cold water cells observed are connected at the surface to a sinuous boundary between low-salinity coastal waters and high-salinity tropical oceanic waters. That boundary coincides rather regularly with an area where trades and SW winds alternate; photosynthesis growths rapidly in a thermoclinal layer that rises until 10 m of the surface but never outcrops. Below a poor and permanent homogeneous surface layer, chlorophyll concentrations show a distribution which is typical of divergence areas. Geostrophical and measured currents show off a transient process in horizontal and vertical movements, however the general curvature of the circulation is propitious to upwelling. Oxygen oversaturations of about 110%, suggest a moderate potential primary production which confirms slowness and alternation of movements. Also, the regular range of the various chemical and biological levels and moderate chlorophyll concentrations suggest an ecosystem where nutrients supply rapidly equilibrate phytoplankton consumption and not at all a 'phytoplankton bloom' area as that which exists in coastal upwelling. Values of Richardson's number show that instability becomes visible at the bottom of the euphotic layer. An evaluation of the vertical motion is inferred by the peculiar distribution and diurnal alternance of the winds shows that 'doming' structures may be sustained by local meteorological events.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

Study on the critical submergence of surface vortices and the design of anti-vortex intakes

Surface vortex behavior in front of the tunnel intake was investigated in this paper. The critical submergence of vortex was discussed based on the concept of 'critical spherical sink surface' (CSSS). The vortex formation and evolution at the tunnel intake were analyzed based on the theory of CSSS considering the effect of circulation. A theory was proposed to explain the surface vortex. The theoretical development was verified by the physical model experiments of Xiluodu hydropower station. The radial velocity and vortex circulation were considered as the main factors that influence the formation and evolution of surface vortex. Finally, an anti-vortex intake configuration was proposed to weaken the air-core vortex in front of the tunnel intakes of the hydraulic structures. © 2011 Science China Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Structural features of geostrophic circulation in open region of the South China Sea

On the basis of observation data of water temperature and salinity the mean seasonal geostrophic circulation in open region of the South China Sea (SCS) was computed by the dynamic method relative to the 800 decibar reference surface. The results of computation let go to following notices: In both main monsoons (winter and summer) there are two main geostrophic eddies: the anticlockwise eddy in the northern and northwestern part, and the clockwise eddy in the southern part of the SCS with corresponding divergent and convergent zones. The main frontal zones go along the middle latitudes of the sea from the southern continental shelf of Vietnam to the area west of Luzon Island. The strength and stability of the current in winter are higher than in summer. The Kuroshio has an enough strong branch intruding into the SCS through Bashi Strait in winter creating in the sea the water structure similar to that of the Northwest Pacific subtropical and tropical regions. In summer the Kuroshio water can intrude directly only into the area southwest of Taiwan.

Arabian Sea sub-surface salinity minima (ASSM)

This paper presents the results of the study on the Arabian Sea sub-surface salinity minima (ASSM). The data collected under the North Arabian Sea Environment and Ecosystem Research (NASEER) programme and World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) has been used in the study. Study of the Arabian Sea water masses is most significant in understanding marine productivity and monsoonal reversal features. Analysis of the data shows that the Arabian Sea sub-surface salinity minima (ASSM) can be found between 25.8 to 26.0 Sigma Theta surfaces. ASSM originates from the south and south east. It is inferred from the results that the salt content of the ASSM varies during different seasons. Appreciable mixing of Arabian Sea salinity minima is observed over Murray Ridge.

A quasi-synoptic interpretation of water mass distribution and circulation in the western North Pacific II: Circulation

Using the data of conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) intensive observations conducted during Oct.-Nov. 2005, this study provides the first three-dimension quasi-synoptic description of the circulation in the western North Pacific. Several novel phenomena are revealed, especially in the deep ocean where earlier observations were very sparse. During the observations, the North Equatorial Current (NEC) splits at about 12A degrees N near the sea surface. This bifurcation shifts northward with depth, reaching about 20A degrees N at 1 000 m, and then remains nearly unchanged to as deep as 2 000 m. The Luzon Undercurrent (LUC), emerging below the Kuroshio from about 21A degrees N, intensifies southward, with its upper boundary surfacing around 12A degrees N. From there, part of the LUC separates from the coast, while the rest continues southward to join the Mindanao Current (MC). The MC extends to 2 000 m near the coast, and appears to be closely related to the subsurface cyclonic eddies which overlap low-salinity water from the North Pacific. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC), carrying waters from the South Pacific, shifts eastward upon approaching the Mindanao coast and eventually becomes part of the eastward undercurrent between 10A degrees N and 12A degrees N at 130A degrees E. In the upper 2 000 dbar, the total westward transport across 130A degrees E between 7.5A degrees N and 18A degrees N reaches 65.4 Sv (1 Sv = 10(-6) m(3)s(-1)), the northward transport across 18A degrees N from Luzon coast to 130A degrees E is up to 35.0 Sv, and the southward transport across 7.5A degrees N from Mindanao coast to 130A degrees E is 27.9 Sv.

Interannual horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean: assimilation versus TAO analysis

The interannual anomalies of horizontal heat advection in the surface mixed layer over the equatorial Pacific Ocean in an assimilation experiment are studied and compared with existing observational analyses. The assimilation builds upon a hindcast study that has produced a good simulation of the observed equatorial currents and optimizes the simulation of the Reynolds sea surface temperature (SST) data. The comparison suggests that the assimilation has improved the simulation of the interannual horizontal heat advection of the surface mixed layer significantly. During periods of interrupted current measurements, the assimilation is shown to produce more meaningful anomalies of the heat advection than the interpolation of the observational data does. The assimilation also shows that the eddy heat flux due to the correlation between high-frequency current and SST variations, which is largely overlooked by the existing observational analyses, is important for the interannual SST balance over the equatorial Pacific. The interannual horizontal heat advection anomalies are found to be sensitive to SST errors where oceanic currents are strong, which is a challenge for ENSO prediction. The study further suggests that the observational analyses of the tropical SST balance based on the TAO and the Reynolds SST data contain significant errors due to the large gradient errors in the Reynolds SST data, which are amplified into the advection anomalies by the large equatorial currents.