Risk and structural instability in US house prices

This paper employs a Component GARCH in Mean model to show that house prices across a number of major US cities between 1987 and 2009 have displayed asset market properties in terms of both risk-return relationships and asymmetric adjustment to shocks. In addition, tests for structural breaks in the mean and variance indicate structural instability across the data range. Multiple breaks are identified across all cities, particularly for the early 1990s and during the post-2007 financial crisis as housing has become an increasingly risky asset. Estimating the models over the individual sub-samples suggests that over the last 20 years the financial sector has increasingly failed to account for the levels of risk associated with real estate markets. This result has possible implications for the way in which financial institutions should be regulated in the future.

An evaluation of exchange rate policy and economic adjustment in Nicaragua, 1993--1995

Since the late 1970's, but particularly since the mid-1980s, the economy of Nicaragua has had persistent and large macroeconomic imbalances, while GDP per-capita has declined to 1950s' levels. By the second half of the 1990s, huge fiscal deficits and a reduction of foreign financing resulted in record hyperinflation. The Sandinista government's (1979–1990) harsh stabilization program in 1988–89 had only modest and short-lived success. It was doomed by their inability to lower the public sector deficit due to the war, plus diminishing financial support from abroad. Hyperinflation stopped only after their 1990 electoral defeat ended the war and massive aid began to flow in. Five years later, macroeconomic stability is still very fragile. A sluggish recovery of export agriculture plus import liberalization, have impeded a reduction of huge trade and current account deficits. Facing the prospects of diminished aid flows, the government's strategy has hinged on the achievement of a real devaluation through a crawling-peg adjustment of the nominal rate. However, at the end of 1995 the situation of the external accounts was still critical, and the modest progress achieved was attributable to cyclical terms-of-trade improvement and changes in the political outlook of agricultural producers. Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model and a Social Accounting Matrix constructed for this dissertation, the importance of structural rigidities in production and demand in explaining such outcome is shown. It is shown that under the plausible structural assumptions incorporated in the model, the role of devaluation in the adjustment process is restricted by structural rigidities. Moreover, contrary to the premise of the orthodox economic thinking behind the economic program, it is the contractionary effect of devaluation more than its expenditure-switching effects that provide the basis for is use in solving the external sector's problems. A fixed nominal exchange rate is found to lead to adverse results. The broader conclusion that emerges from the study is that a new social compact and a rapid increase in infrastructure spending plus fiscal support for the traditional agro-export activities is at the center of a successful adjustment towards external viability in Nicaragua. ^

The impact of friends on newly immigrant children's emotional and behavioral adjustment

Immigration disrupts an individual's support network; however, the stresses of the immigration process increase the need for social support. The presence of social support becomes essential for immigrant children and adolescents to cope with these important transitional circumstances. Friends are both sources of social support and models for behavior. Furthermore, friendship networks are known to have a significant influence on youths' functioning. Literature suggests that peer relations become more important in adolescence and friend support is related to child and adolescent well-being. Thus, friend relationships may be particularly important for immigrant youths who experience disruption in their friendship networks during the process of migration to another country. In addition to friendship networks and support, friend characteristics also need to be taken into consideration as important factors for immigrant youth adjustment. My study involved analyses of the effects of friend support and friend problem behaviors on emotional and behavioral functioning for elementary, middle, and high school age newly immigrant children and adolescents. ^ Immigrant children and adolescents (N = 503) were interviewed at schools by interviewers fluent in participants' languages. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyses revealed that friend support and friend problem behaviors were related to children's self-esteem and externalizing behaviors. In addition, friend problem behavior alone predicted children's psychological symptoms and depression scores. Furthermore, age/grade was found to be a moderator for the relation between friend problem behavior and immigrant youth behavioral adjustment such that compared to elementary and high school cohorts, middle school youths showed more externalizing behaviors when they had friends performing problem behaviors. ^ Results supported the idea that both friend support and friend behavior are related to newly immigrant youths' emotional and behavioral adjustment. This study informs further research and interventions concerning the development of programs to facilitate immigrant youths' adjustment by revealing friendship factors related to their adaptation.^

The Impact of Friends on Newly Immigrant Children’s Emotional and Behavioral Adjustment

Immigration disrupts an individual’s support network; however, the stresses of the immigration process increase the need for social support. The presence of social support becomes essential for immigrant children and adolescents to cope with these important transitional circumstances. Friends are both sources of social support and models for behavior. Furthermore, friendship networks are known to have a significant influence on youths’ functioning. Literature suggests that peer relations become more important in adolescence and friend support is related to child and adolescent well-being. Thus, friend relationships may be particularly important for immigrant youths who experience disruption in their friendship networks during the process of migration to another country. In addition to friendship networks and support, friend characteristics also need to be taken into consideration as important factors for immigrant youth adjustment. My study involved analyses of the effects of friend support and friend problem behaviors on emotional and behavioral functioning for elementary, middle, and high school age newly immigrant children and adolescents. Immigrant children and adolescents (N = 503) were interviewed at schools by interviewers fluent in participants’ languages. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyses revealed that friend support and friend problem behaviors were related to children’s self-esteem and externalizing behaviors. In addition, friend problem behavior alone predicted children’s psychological symptoms and depression scores. Furthermore, age/grade was found to be a moderator for the relation between friend problem behavior and immigrant youth behavioral adjustment such that compared to elementary and high school cohorts, middle school youths showed more externalizing behaviors when they had friends performing problem behaviors. Results supported the idea that both friend support and friend behavior are related to newly immigrant youths’ emotional and behavioral adjustment. This study informs further research and interventions concerning the development of programs to facilitate immigrant youths’ adjustment by revealing friendship factors related to their adaptation.

Exploring first-year academic achievement through structural equation modelling

The purpose of this research was to develop and test a multicausal model of the individual characteristics associated with academic success in first-year Australian university students. This model comprised the constructs of: previous academic performance, achievement motivation, self-regulatory learning strategies, and personality traits, with end-of-semester grades the dependent variable of interest. The study involved the distribution of a questionnaire, which assessed motivation, self-regulatory learning strategies and personality traits, to 1193 students at the start of their first year at university. Students' academic records were accessed at the end of their first year of study to ascertain their first and second semester grades. This study established that previous high academic performance, use of self-regulatory learning strategies, and being introverted and agreeable, were indicators of academic success in the first semester of university study. Achievement motivation and the personality trait of conscientiousness were indirectly related to first semester grades, through the influence they had on the students' use of self-regulatory learning strategies. First semester grades were predictive of second semester grades. This research provides valuable information for both educators and students about the factors intrinsic to the individual that are associated with successful performance in the first year at university.