Potentiel d’une approche populationnelle orientée vers la reconfiguration des environnements urbains pour améliorer la sécurité des piétons

INTRODUCTION : En milieu urbain, l’amélioration de la sécurité des piétons pose un défi de santé publique. Pour chaque décès attribuable aux collisions routières, il y a des centaines de personnes blessées et, dans les pays riches, la diminution du nombre annuel de piétons décédés s’expliquerait en partie par la diminution de la marche. Les stratégies préventives prédominantes n’interviennent pas sur le volume de circulation automobile, un facteur pourtant fondamental. De plus, les interventions environnementales pour améliorer la sécurité des infrastructures routières se limitent habituellement aux sites comptant le plus grand nombre de décès ou de blessés. Cette thèse vise à décrire la contribution des volumes de circulation automobile, des pratiques locales de marche et de la géométrie des routes au nombre et à la répartition des piétons blessés en milieu urbain, et d’ainsi établir le potentiel d’une approche populationnelle orientée vers la reconfiguration des environnements urbains pour améliorer la sécurité des piétons. MÉTHODE : Le devis est de type descriptif et transversal. Les principales sources de données sont les registres des services ambulanciers d’Urgences-santé (blessés de la route), l’enquête Origine-Destination (volumes de circulation automobile), la Géobase du réseau routier montréalais (géométrie des routes) et le recensement canadien (pratiques locales de marche, position socioéconomique). Les analyses descriptives comprennent la localisation cartographique (coordonnées x,y) de l’ensemble des sites de collision. Des modèles de régression multi-niveaux nichent les intersections dans les secteurs de recensement et dans les arrondissements. RÉSULTATS : Les analyses descriptives démontrent une grande dispersion des sites de collision au sein des quartiers. Les analyses multivariées démontrent les effets significatifs, indépendants du volume de circulation automobile, de la présence d’artère(s) et d’une quatrième branche aux intersections, ainsi que du volume de marche dans le secteur, sur le nombre de piétons blessés aux intersections. L’analyse multi-niveaux démontre une grande variation spatiale de l’effet du volume de circulation automobile. Les facteurs environnementaux expliquent une part substantielle de la variation spatiale du nombre de blessés et du gradient socioéconomique observé. DISCUSSION : La grande dispersion des sites de collision confirme la pertinence d’une approche ne se limitant pas aux sites comptant le plus grand nombre de blessés. Les résultats suggèrent que des stratégies préventives basées sur des approches environnementales et populationnelle pourraient considérablement réduire le nombre de piétons blessés ainsi que les inégalités observées entre les quartiers.

Contenu total en éléments traces de sols forestiers du Québec méridional

Les sols forestiers constituent un réservoir considérable d’éléments nutritifs disponibles pour soutenir la productivité forestière. Ces sols contiennent aussi une quantité, encore inconnue à ce jour, d’éléments traces biodisponibles provenant de sources anthropiques ou naturelles. Or, plusieurs de ces éléments recèlent un potentiel toxique pour les organismes vivants. Ainsi, la quantification de la concentration et du contenu total en éléments traces des sols forestiers s’avère nécessaire afin d’évaluer les impacts des perturbations sur la qualité des sols. Les objectifs de ce projet de recherche sont: 1) de mesurer le contenu total en éléments traces en phase solide (Ag, As, Ba, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Rb, Se, Sr, Tl, V, Y, Zn) des divers horizons de sols d’écosystèmes forestiers du Québec méridional; 2) d’établir des liens significatifs entre la fraction soluble dans l’eau des éléments traces et les propriétés des horizons de sols et; 3) d’évaluer le rôle de la proximité d’un centre urbain sur les contenus en éléments traces. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, quatre profils de sols situés dans la région de St-Hippolyte et deux situés dans la région de Montréal furent échantillonnés jusqu'à l'atteinte du matériel parental. Les résultats de ce projet de recherche ont révélé que le contenu total en éléments traces présents dans les profils de sols se retrouve en grande partie dans les fragments grossiers du sol. Il a été démontré que la teneur en carbone organique, les complexes organométalliques et les oxydes de fer et d’aluminium dictent la distribution en profil de la majorité des éléments traces étudiés. Finalement, il fut prouvé que la région de Montréal présente des niveaux de contamination en éléments traces (Ag, As, Ba, Cu, Mn, Pb, Rb, Se, Sr, Tl et Zn) supérieurs à ceux rencontrés dans les Laurentides.

Sélection et polymorphisme chez des grenouilles mimétiques du Pérou (Dendrobatidae)

La diversification des signaux aposématiques dans un cadre de mimétisme müllérien est un phénomène intrigant. Alors que la théorie relative à l'aposématisme et au mimétisme suggère l'évolution vers un signal aposématique unique, d'impressionnantes variations peuvent être observées entre les populations, et cela à petite échelle spatiale. Il a été supposé que la variation spatiale des pressions de sélection engendrées par différents prédateurs puisse être à l'origine de ce phénomène. Afin de tester cette hypothèse, nous avons étudié la transition entre deux systèmes géographiques caractérisés par des patrons aposématiques distincts chez des grenouilles mimétiques et toxiques du nord du Pérou (Dendrobatidae) en combinant les outils de génétique des populations aux outils écologiques. Dans chacun de ces systèmes, Ranitomeya imitator vit en sympatrie avec R. ventrimaculata ou R. variabilis. Il s'agit du principal exemple empirique suggérant que dans un cadre de mimétisme müllérien, il n'y a pas convergence des signaux aposématiques des deux espèces, mais plutôt convergence unidirectionnelle où R. imitator, étant polymorphe, imite des espèces monomorphes avec lesquelles elle est sympatrique. Premièrement, les résultats réfutent les prémisses qui suggèrent que R. imitator converge vers le signal aposématique d’une autre espèce. La haute similarité génétique entre les espèces modèles suggère qu'elles ont divergé plus récemment que les populations de R. imitator ou qu'elles sont encore connectées par du flux génique. Ces résultats indiquent que ces espèces ont été identifiées à tort comme des espèces différentes. De fait, l'identification de l'espèce imitatrice basée sur la variabilité phénotypique est invalidée dans ce système puisque R. imitator et R. variabilis/ventrimaculata démontrent la même variabilité. Deuxièmement, nos résultats démontrent que la prédation varie spatialement, autant en intensité qu'en direction, créant ainsi un paysage hétérogène de pressions de sélection. Ainsi, de fortes pressions de prédation stabilisatrice permettent le maintien de l'organisation géographique de différents signaux aposématiques et expliquent l'uniformité de ces signaux ainsi que les relations mimétiques. Par contre, le relâchement temporaire des pressions de prédation permet l'apparition de nouveaux phénotypes aposématiques via les processus évolutifs neutres, conduisant à un haut polymorphisme au niveau de ces populations. L'interaction de ces modes sélectifs nous a permis de démontrer pour la première fois comment la théorie évolutive de Wright (shifting balance theory) permet la diversification adaptative dans un système naturel. Pour conclure, cette étude a permis de mettre en évidence à quel point les systèmes de mimétisme müllérien peuvent être dynamiques. L'alternance spatiale entre les processus évolutifs neutres et la sélection naturelle permet l'émergence de nouveaux phénotypes aposématiques à une échelle locale, ainsi que l'apparition d'une organisation géographique des signaux d'avertissement et des relations de mimétisme müllérien.

Les macroinvertébrés benthiques littoraux : bioindicateurs de la qualité écologique des milieux humides en zone urbaine

Les milieux aquatiques en zone urbaine sont reconnus comme des îlots de biodiversité qui offrent de nombreux services écologiques. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé les macroinvertébrés comme bioindicateurs de la qualité écologique des étangs, petits lacs et marais de l’Île de Montréal. Les macroinvertébrés ont été récoltés durant l’été 2011 dans la zone littorale de 20 sites variant par leur urbanisation et leurs caractéristiques limnologiques. Nous avons évalué la variation dans la richesse en taxa, les indices de diversité et plusieurs métriques basées sur la composition taxonomique ou les traits fonctionnels. Nous avons déterminé la réponse des métriques aux changements dans l’urbanisation, l’aménagement et les conditions des plans d’eau. Notre étude montre que les étangs, marécages et petits lacs constituent des réserves importantes de biodiversité en zone urbaine. Les marécages naturels et les étangs et lacs permaments avaient une meilleure qualité écologique et supportaient des communautés de macroinvertébrés plus diverses et abondantes que les petits étangs temporaires aménagés. Le couvert de végétation aquatique, l’enrichissement en nutriments et en matière organique ainsi que la biomasse des algues expliquaient le plus de variation dans les macroinvertébrés. Les aménagements, la densité urbaine et la permanence de l’eau avaient aussi une bonne influence. Les métriques univariées avaient moins de potentiel que les métriques multivariées. Nous avons discuté les implications de notre étude pour le suivi environnemental de la biodiversité et la qualité écologique des milieux aquatiques en zone urbaine.

Fluorescence characterization and gain studies on a dye-doped graded index polymer optical-fiber preform

Preparation of an appropriate optical-fiber preform is vital for the fabrication of graded-index polymer optical fibers (GIPOF), which are considered to be a good choice for providing inexpensive high bandwidth data links, for local area networks and telecommunication applications. Recent development of the interfacial gel polymerization technique has caused a dramatic reduction in the total attenuation in GIPOF, and this is one of the potential methods to prepare fiber preforms for the fabrication of dye-doped polymer-fiber amplifiers. In this paper, the preparation of a dye-doped graded-index poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) rod by the interfacial gel polymerization method using a PMMA tube is reported. An organic compound of high-refractive index, viz., diphenyl phthalate (DPP), was used to obtain a graded-index distribution, and Rhodamine B (Rh B), was used to dope the PMMA rod. The refractive index profile of the rod was measured using an interferometric technique and the index exponent was estimated. The single pass gain of the rod was measured at a pump wavelength of 532 nm. The extent of doping of the Rh B in the preform was studied by axially exciting a thin slice of the rod with white light and measuring the spatial variation of the fluorescence intensity across the sample.

Studies on the macrobenthic community of Cochin backwaters with special reference to culture of Eriopisa chilkensis (Gammaridae-Amphipoda)

This thesis Entitled studies on the macrobenthic community of cochin backwaters with special reference to culture of eriopisa chilkensis (Gammaridae- amphipoda).Benthic organisms are usually studied for environmental impact assessment, pollution control and resource conservation. The benthic monitoring component has three major objectives: 1) characterize the benthic communities to assess the estuarine health, 2) determine seasonal and spatial variability in benthic communities, and 3) detect changes in the estuarine community through examination of changes in abundances of specific indicator taxa and other standard benthic indices.Cochin backwaters situated at the tip of the northern Vembanad lake is a tropical positive estuarine system. The backwaters of Kerala support as much biological productivity and diversity as tropical rain forest and are responsible for the rich fishery potential of Kerala. Backwaters also act as nursery grounds for commercially important prawns and fishes.The thesis has been subdivided into seven chapters. The first chapter gives a general introduction about the topic and also highlights the scope and purpose of the study. The second chapter covers the methodology adopted for the collection and analysis of water quality parameters, sediment and the macrobenthic fauna.Chapter 3 deals with hydrographic features, sediment characteristics and the spatial variation and abundance of macrobenthic fauna in the Cochin estuary.Chapter 4 explains the impact of organic enrichment on macrobenthic popUlation in the Cochin estuary and includes the comparison of the present data with the earlier work in this region.Chapter 5 deals with seasonal variability in abundance of macrobenthic species in the estuary. The study was conducted from 9 stations during three seasons (pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon) in 2003.Chapter 6 deals with Life history and Population Dynamics of Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae-Amphipoda). The life cycle of the gammarid amphipod Eriopisa chilkensis from the Cochin estuary, south west coast of India was studied for the first time under laboratory conditions.

Growth response of phytoplankton exposed to industrial effluents in river Periyar

The thesis entitled Growth Response of Phytoplankton Exposed to Industrial Effluents in River Periyar. The present investigation has been conducted in two phases: field observation and algal assays. The monthly distribution of hydrographic features is represented graphically. The sampling year has been divided into three seasons: monsoon (June to September), postmonsoon (October to January) and premonsoon (February to May). The data were analysed using Student's t-test to find whether there was any significant difference between surface and bottom samples. The spatial variation of the variables was assessed by Page's L (trend) test (Ray Meddis, 1975). The standard procedure for algal toxicity test (Ward and Parrish, 1982) was followed throughout the study. Statistical analysis (Page's L (trend) test) showed that there was no significant difference in Secchi disc transparency between the stations. The field observations as well as the laboratory assays confirm that the rate of discharge in river Periyar during premonsoon is insufficient to effect dilution of wastewater received in the industrial zone.

Studies on the meteriological aspects of air pollution over Cochin

Pollutants that once enter into the earth’s atmosphere become part of the atmosphere and hence their dispersion, dilution, direction of transportation etc. are governed by the meteorological conditions. The thesis deals with the study of the atmospheric dispersion capacity, wind climatology, atmospheric stability, pollutant distribution by means of a model and the suggestions for a comprehensive planning for the industrially developing city, Cochin. The definition, sources, types and effects of air pollution have been dealt with briefly. The influence of various meteorological parameters such as vector wind, temperature and its vertical structure and atmospheric stability in relation to pollutant dispersal have been studied. The importance of inversions, mixing heights, ventilation coefficients were brought out. The spatial variation of mixing heights studies for the first time on a microscale region, serves to delineate the regions of good and poor dispersal capacity. A study of wind direction fluctuation, σθ and its relation to stability and mixing heights were shown to be much useful. It was shown that there is a necessity to look into the method of σθ computation. The development of Gausssian Plume Model along with the application for multiple sources was presented. The pollutant chosen was sulphur dioxide and industrial sources alone were considered. The percentage frequency of occurrence of inversions and isothermals are found to be low in all months during the year. The spatial variation of mixing heights revealed that a single mixing height cannot be taken as a representative for the whole city have low mixing heights and monsoonal months showed lowest mixing heights. The study of ventilation co-efficients showed values less than the required optimum value 6000m2/5. However, the low values may be due to the consideration of surface wind alone instead of the vertically averaged wind. Relatively more calm conditions and light winds during night and strong winds during day time were observed. During the most of the year westerlies during day time and northeasterlies during night time are the dominant winds. Unstable conditions with high values of σθ during day time and stable conditions with lower values of σθ during night time are the prominent features. Monsoonal months showed neutral stability for most of the time. A study σθ of and Pasquill Stability category has revealed the difficulty in giving a unique value of for each stability category. For the first time regression equations have been developed relating mixing heights and σθ. A closer examination of σθ revealed that half of the range of wind direction fluctuations is to be taken, instead of one by sixth, to compute σθ. The spatial distribution of SO2 showed a more or less uniform distribution with a slight intrusion towards south. Winter months showed low concentrations contrary to the expectations. The variations of the concentration is found to be influenced more by the mixing height and the stack height rather than wind speed. In the densely populated areas the concentration is more than the threshold limit value. However, the values reported appear to be high, because no depletion of the material is assumed through dry or wet depositions and also because of the inclusion of calm conditions with a very light wind speed. A reduction of emission during night time with a consequent rise during day time would bring down the levels of pollution. The probable locations for the new industries could be the extreme southeast parts because the concentration towards the north falls off very quickly resulting low concentrations. In such a case pollutant spread would be towards south and west, thus keeping the city interior relatively free from pollution. A more detailed examination of the pollutant spread by means of models that would take the dry and wet depositions may be necessary. Nevertheless, the present model serves to give the trend of the distribution of pollutant concentration with which one can suggest the optimum locations for the new industries

Studies On Some Aspects Of Phytoplankton

The present study is concentrated on a composite group of algae of phy— toplankton. The algae in the aquatic environment are the most important of all ch1orophy1l- bearing life on earth on which considerable attention is being given on account of their supreme status in the aquatic food chain. Though the higher plants serve as the major primary producers in the terrestrial biocycle, the primary producers in the aquatic ecosystem especially in the marine environment-" assume unparalleled significance ‘because of their c'ontribution.to the high magnitude of production generating the fishery resources

Characteristic Study of the Boundary Layer Parameters over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal Using the QuikSCAT Dataset

The marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) plays a vital role in the transport of momentum and heat from the surface of the ocean into the atmosphere. A detailed study on the MABL characteristics was carried out using high-resolution surface-wind data as measured by the QuikSCAT (Quick scatterometer) satellite. Spatial variations in the surface wind, frictional velocity, roughness parameter and drag coe±cient for the di®erent seasons were studied. The surface wind was strong during the southwest monsoon season due to the modulation induced by the Low Level Jetstream. The drag coe±cient was larger during this season, due to the strong winds and was lower during the winter months. The spatial variations in the frictional velocity over the seas was small during the post-monsoon season (»0.2 m s¡1). The maximum spatial variation in the frictional velocity was found over the south Arabian Sea (0.3 to 0.5 m s¡1) during the southwest monsoon period, followed by the pre-monsoon over the Bay of Bengal (0.1 to 0.25 m s¡1). The mean wind-stress curl during the winter was positive over the equatorial region, with a maximum value of 1.5£10¡7 N m¡3, but on either side of the equatorial belt, a negative wind-stress curl dominated. The area average of the frictional velocity and drag coe±cient over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal were also studied. The values of frictional velocity shows a variability that is similar to the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and this was con¯rmed via wavelet analysis. In the case of the drag coe±cient, the prominent oscillations were ISO and quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The interrelationship between the drag coe±cient and the frictional velocity with wind speed in both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal was also studied.

Heavy metal tolerance patterns of total heterotrophic bacteria isolated from the soils of Mahatma Gandhi University campus, Kottayam, Kerala

Industrialization of our society has led to an increased production and discharge of both xenobiotic and natural chemical substances. Many of these chemicals will end up in the soil. Pollution of soils with heavy metals is becoming one of the most severe ecological and human health hazards. Elevated levels of heavy metals decrease soil microbial activity and bacteria need to develop different mechanisms to confer resistances to these heavy metals. Bacteria develop heavy-metal resistance mostly for their survivals, especially a significant portion of the resistant phenomena was found in the environmental strains. Therefore, in the present work, we check the multiple metal tolerance patterns of bacterial strains isolated from the soils of MG University campus, Kottayam. A total of 46 bacterial strains were isolated from different locations of the campus and tested for their resistant to 5 common metals in use (lead, zinc, copper, cadmium and nickel) by agar dilution method. The results of the present work revealed that there was a spatial variation of bacterial metal resistance in the soils of MG University campus, this may be due to the difference in metal contamination in different sampling location. All of the isolates showed resistance to one or more heavy metals selected. Tolerance to lead was relatively high followed by zinc, nickel, copper and cadmium. About 33% of the isolates showed very high tolerance (>4000μg/ml) to lead. Tolerance to cadmium (65%) was rather low (<100 μg/ml). Resistance to zinc was in between 100μg/ml - 1000μg/ml and the majority of them shows resistance in between 200μg/ml - 500μg/ml. Nickel resistance was in between 100μg/ml - 1000μg/ml and a good number of them shows resistance in between 300μg/ml - 400μg/ml. Resistance to copper was in between <100μg/ml - 500μg/ml and most of them showed resistance in between 300μg/ml - 400μg/ml. From the results of this study, it was concluded that heavy metal-resistant bacteria are widely distributed in the soils of MG university campus and the tolerance of heavy metals varied among bacteria and between locations

Chemometric study on the trace metal accumulation in the sediments of the Cochin Estuary―Southwest coast of India

The distribution and accumulation of trace metals in the sediments of the Cochin estuary during the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon periods were investigated. Sediment samples from 14 locations were collected and analysed for the metal contents (Mg, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb), organic carbon, total nitrogen, total sulphur and grain size. The data were processed using statistical tools like correlation, factor and cluster analysis. The study revealed an enrichment of Cd and Zn in the study area particularly at station 2, which is confirmed by enrichment factor, contamination factor and geoaccumulation index. The factor analysis revealed that the source of Cd and Zn may be same. The study indicated that the spatial variation for the metals like Mg, Cr, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were predominant unlike Mn which shows a temporal variation. The strong association of trace metals with Fe and Mn hydroxides and oxides are prominent along the Cochin estuary. The anthropogenic inputs of industrial effluents mainly control the trace metals enrichment in the Cochin estuary

Effects of fertilizer type and rate on partitioning of soil organic matter into pools of different stability

Type and rate of fertilizers influence the level of soil organic carbon (Corg) and total nitrogen (Nt) markedly, but the effect on C and N partitioning into different pools is open to question. The objectives of the present work were to: (i) quantify the impact of fertilizer type and rate on labile, intermediate and passive C and N pools by using a combination of biological, chemical and mathematical methods; (ii) explain previously reported differences in the soil organic matter (SOM) levels between soils receiving farmyard manure with or without biodynamic preparations by using Corg time series and information on SOM partitioning; and (iii) quantify the long-term and short-term dynamics of SOM in density fractions and microbial biomass as affected by fertilizer type and rate and determine the incorporation of crop residues into labile SOM fractions. Samples were taken from a sandy Cambisol from the long-term fertilization trial in Darmstadt, Germany, founded in 1980. The nine treatments (four field replicates) were: straw incorporation plus application of mineral fertilizer (MSI) and application of rotted farmyard manure with (DYN) or without (FYM) addition of biodynamic preparations, each at high (140 – 150 kg N ha-1 year-1; MSIH, DYNH, FYMH), medium (100 kg N ha-1 year-1; MSIM, DYNM, FYMM) and low (50 – 60 kg N ha-1 year-1; MSIL, DYNL, FYML) rates. The main findings were: (i) The stocks of Corg (t ha-1) were affected by fertilizer type and rate and increased in the order MSIL (23.6), MSIM (23.7), MSIH (24.2) < FYML (25.3) < FYMM (28.1), FYMH (28.1). Stocks of Nt were affected in the same way (C/N ratio: 11). Storage of C and N in the modelled labile pools (turnover times: 462 and 153 days for C and N, respectively) were not influenced by the type of fertilizer (FYM and MSI) but depended significantly (p ≤ 0.05) on the application rate and ranged from 1.8 to 3.2 t C ha 1 (7 – 13% of Corg) and from 90 to 140 kg N ha-1 (4-5% of Nt). In the calculated intermediate pool (C/N ratio 7), stocks of C were markedly higher in FYM treatments (15-18 t ha-1) compared to MSI treatments (12-14 t ha-1). This showed that differences in SOM stocks in the sandy Cambisol induced by fertilizer rate may be short-lived in case of changing management, but differences induced by fertilizer type may persist for decades. (ii) Crop yields, estimated C inputs (1.5 t ha-1 year-1) with crop residue, microbial bio¬mass C (Cmic, 118 – 150 mg kg-1), microbial biomass N (17 – 20 mg kg-1) and labile C and N pools did not differ significantly between FYM and DYN treatments. However, labile C increased linearly with application rate (R2 = 0.53) from 7 to 11% of Corg. This also applied for labile N (3.5 to 4.9% of Nt). The higher contents of Corg in DYN treatments existed since 1982, when the first sampling was conducted for all individual treatments. Contents of Corg between DYN and FYM treatments con-verged slightly since then. Furthermore, at least 30% of the difference in Corg was located in the passive pool where a treatment effect could be excluded. Therefore, the reported differences in Corg contents existed most likely since the beginning of the experiment and, as a single factor of biodynamic agriculture, application of bio-dynamic preparations had no effect on SOM stocks. (iii) Stocks of SOM, light fraction organic C (LFOC, ρ ≤ 2.0 g cm-3), light fraction organic N and Cmic decreased in the order FYMH > FYML > MSIH, MSIL for all sampling dates in 2008 (March, May, September, December). However, statistical significance of treatment effects differed between the dates, probably due to dif-ferences in the spatial variation throughout the year. The high proportion of LFOC on total Corg stocks (45 – 55%) highlighted the importance of selective preservation of OM as a stabilization mechanism in this sandy Cambisol. The apparent turnover time of LFOC was between 21 and 32 years, which agreed very well with studies with substantially longer vegetation change compared to our study. Overall, both approaches; (I) the combination of incubation, chemical fractionation and simple modelling and (II) the density fractionation; provided complementary information on the partitioning of SOM into pools of different stability. The density fractionation showed that differences in Corg stocks between FYM and MSI treatments were mainly located in the light fraction, i.e. induced by higher recalcitrance of the organic input in the FYM treatments. Moreover, the use of the combination of biological, chemical and mathematical methods indicated that effects of fertilizer rate on total Corg and Nt stocks may be short-lived, but that the effect of fertilizer type may persist for longer time spans in the sandy Cambisol.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.