Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Spatial and temporal variations of the seasonal sea level cycle in the northwest Pacific

The seasonal sea level variations observed from tide gauges over 1900-2013 and gridded satellite altimeter product AVISO over 1993-2013 in the northwest Pacific have been explored. The seasonal cycle is able to explain 60-90% of monthly sea level variance in the marginal seas, while it explains less than 20% of variance in the eddy-rich regions. The maximum annual and semi-annual sea level cycles (30cm and 6cm) are observed in the north of the East China Sea and the west of the South China Sea respectively. AVISO was found to underestimate the annual amplitude by 25% compared to tide gauge estimates along the coasts of China and Russia. The forcing for the seasonal sea level cycle was identified. The atmospheric pressure and the steric height produce 8-12cm of the annual cycle in the middle continental shelf and in the Kuroshio Current regions separately. The removal of the two attributors from total sea level permits to identify the sea level residuals that still show significant seasonality in the marginal seas. Both nearby wind stress and surface currents can explain well the long-term variability of the seasonal sea level cycle in the marginal seas and the tropics because of their influence on the sea level residuals. Interestingly, the surface currents are a better descriptor in the areas where the ocean currents are known to be strong. Here, they explain 50-90% of inter-annual variability due to the strong links between the steric height and the large-scale ocean currents.

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread.

Uncertainties in tidally adjusted estimates of sea level rise flooding (bathtub model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.

Late Quaternary sedimentation in the Paraiba Basin, Northeastern Brazil: Landform, sea level and tectonics in Eastern South America passive margin

Late Quaternary deposits in the northeastern Brazil have been scarcely investigated, despite their relevance to the discussion of the post-rift evolution of the South American passive margin within the context of landform, sea level and tectonic deformation. Sedimentological, stratigraphic and morphological characterization of these deposits, referred as Post-Barreiras Sediments, led to their distinction from underlying Early/Middle Miocene strata. Based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, two sedimentary units (PB1 and PB2) were recognized and related to the time intervals between 74.8 +/- 9.3 and 30.8 +/- 6.9 ka, and 8.8 +/- 0.9 and 1.8 +/- 0.2 ka, respectively. Unit PB1 consists of indurated sandstones and breccias either with massive bedding or complex types of soft sediment deformation structures generated by contemporaneous seismic activity. Unit PB2 is composed of massive sands or sands related to structures developed by dissipation of dunes. The present work, focusing on the Post-Barreiras Sediments, discusses landform, sea level and tectonics of the eastern South American passive margin during the latest Quaternary. Non-deposition and sub-aerial exposure related to the Tortonian worldwide low sea level combined with tectonic quiescence followed the Miocene transgression. Tectonic deformation in the latest Pleistocene created space to accommodate unit PB1 in downthrown faulted blocks and, perhaps, also synclines produced by strike-slip deformation. Although deposition of this unit was simultaneous with the progressive fall in sea level that followed the Last Interglacial Maximum, punctuated rises combined with land subsidence led to marine deposition close to the modern coastline. Renewed subsidence in the Holocene gave rise to accommodation of the Post-Barreiras Sediments. Most of unit PB2 was deposited during the Holocene Transgression, but it is not composed of marine sediments, which suggests either an insignificant rise in relative sea level or aeolian reworking of thin transgressive sands. The data presented here lead to a review of the evolution of the South American passive margin based on assumptions of uniform sedimentation and undeformed planation surfaces over a wide coastal area of the northeastern Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grain size and heavy minerals of the Late Quaternary eolian sediments from the Imbituba-Jaguaruna coast, Southern Brazil: Depositional controls linked to relative sea-level changes

The stratigraphic subdivision and correlation of dune deposits is difficult, especially when age datings are not available. A better understanding of the controls on texture and composition of eolian sands is necessary to interpret ancient eolian sediments. The Imbituba-Jaguaruna coastal zone (Southern Brazil, 28 degrees-29 degrees S) stands out due to its four well-preserved Late Pleistocene (eolian generation 1) to Holocene eolian units (eolian generations 2, 3, and 4). In this study, we evaluate the grain-size and heavy-mineral characteristics of the Imbituba-Jaguartma eolian units through statistical analysis of hundreds of sediment samples. Grain-size parameters and heavy-mineral content allow us to distinguish the Pleistocene from the Holocene units. The grain size displays a pattern of fining and better sorting from generation 1 (older) to 4 (younger), whereas the content of mechanically stable (dense and hard) heavy minerals decreases from eolian generation 1 to 4. The variation in grain size and heavy-mineral content records shifts in the origin and balance (input versus output) of eolian sediment supply attributable mainly to relative sea-level changes. Dunefields submitted to relative sea-level lowstand conditions (eolian generation 1) are characterized by lower accumulation rates and intense post-depositional dissection by fluvial incision. Low accumulation rates favor deflation in the eolian system, which promotes concentration of denser and stable heavy minerals (increase of ZTR index) as well as coarsening of eolian sands. Dissection involves the selective removal of finer sediments and less dense heavy minerals to the coastal source area. Under a high rate of relative sea-level rise and transgression (eolian generation 2), coastal erosion prevents deflation through high input of sediments to the coastal eolian source. This condition favors dunefield growth. Coastal erosion feeds sand from local sources to the eolian system. including sands from previous dunefields (eolian generation 1) and from drowned incised valleys. Therefore, dunefields corresponding to transgressive phases inherit the grain-size and heavy-mineral characteristics of previous dunefields, leading to selective enrichment of finer sands and lighter minerals. Eolian generations 3 and 4 developed during a regressive-progradational phase (Holocene relative sea level highstand). The high rate of sediment supply during the highstand phase prevents deflation. The lack of coastal erosion favors sediment supply from distal sources (fluvial sediments rich in unstable heavy minerals). Thus, dunefields of transgressive and highstand systems tracts may be distinguished from dunefields of the lowstand systems tract through high rates of accumulation (low deflation) in the former. The sediment source of the transgressive dunefields (high input of previously deposited coastal sands) differs from that of the highstand dunefields (high input of fluvial distal sands). Based on this case study, we propose a general framework for the relation between relative sea level, sediment supply and the texture and mineralogy of eolian sediments deposited in siliciclastic wet coastal zones similar to the Imbituba-Jaguaruna coast (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Palaeodrainage on Marajo Island, northern Brazil, in relation to Holocene relative sea-level dynamics

A large area in northeastern Marajo Island, northern Brazil, has been characterized geomorphologically, applying information acquired from Landsat imagery. This study was combined with detailed sedimentologic analysis of continuous cores, which provided a record of depositional settings developed in this area through the Holocene. The results revealed well-preserved, meandering to anastomosed drainage networks of wide palaeochannels that were superimposed by a narrower palaeochannel system. In both cases, the sedimentary record consists of sands, heterolithic deposits and muds, locally rich in plant debris. The strata are organized into fining upward successions that reach approximately 18 m thick in the wide channels and 4 m thick in the narrow channels. Sedimentary features suggestive of a coastal location for the wider palaeochannels and reworking of sediments by tidal currents include the prevalence of well to moderately sorted, rounded to sub-rounded, fine- to medium-grained sands displaying foreset packages separated by mud couplets, suggestive of tidal cycles. The data presented herein point to a rise in relative sea level reaching the Lake Arari area during the early to late/mid Holocene. This event was followed by a relative sea level drop. Tectonics seem to have contributed to an overall lowering in relative sea level in the study area since the mid-Holocene, which does not follow the same pattern recorded in other areas along the northern Brazilian coast.

Lower permian oncolites from South China: implications for equatorial sea-level responses to late palaeozoic Gondwanan glaciation

The oncoid-bearing Chuanshan Formation is a regionally extensive carbonate deposit of predominantly Asselian to early Sakmarian (Early Permian) age in South China, occupying an area of some 500,000 km2. Throughout South China, the oncoid-bearing horizons are generally stable and broadly comparable in lithology, fossil content and the morphology of the oncoid grains. Four types of microfacies are recognized from the oncolite succession and overall they suggest a moderate- to high-energy, wave-agitated shallow marine carbonate platform environment. An analysis of the stratigraphic distribution of oncoid grain size, density, thickness and the bedding structures of the oncolite beds and the number of coating laminae indicate the presence of metre-scale cyclothems, suggestive of possible high-frequency cycles of sea-level fluctuation. Compared to carbonate successions above and below that lack oncolites, and in conjunction with evidence from sequence stratigraphic and isotopic geochemical analyses of coeval carbonate deposits in South China and elsewhere, the origin of the Chuanshan oncolites is linked to a drastic drop in global sea-level at the Pennsylvanian–Permian boundary, that can be correlated closely in timing with the zenith of the Late Palaeozoic Gondwanan glaciation. It is further suggested that the eustatic changes apparent from the deposition of the Chuanshan oncolites and similar coeval deposits in lower palaeolatitudes were coupled with, and influenced by, the contemporaneous high-latitude Gondwanan glaciation, the largest and longest known such event in Phanerozoic Earth history.

ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF CATASTROPHIC SEA LEVEL RISE IN MAINE

http://digitalcommons.colby.edu/atlasofmaine2006/1016/thumbnail.jpg

Sea-level changes and palaeo-ranges: reconstruction of ancient shorelines and river drainages and the phylogeography of the Australian land crayfish Engaeus sericatus Clark (Decapoda: Parastacidae )

Historical sea levels have been influential in shaping the phylogeography of freshwater-limited taxa via palaeodrainage and palaeoshoreline connections. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to phylogeographic analysis incorporating historical sea-level information in a nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) framework, using burrowing freshwater crayfish as the model organism. Our study area focuses on the Bass Strait region of southeastern Australia, which is marine region encompassing a shallow seabed that has emerged as a land bridge during glacial cycles connecting mainland Australia and Tasmania. Bathymetric data were analysed using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to delineate a palaeodrainage model when the palaeocoastline was 150 m below present-day sea level. Such sea levels occurred at least twice in the past 500 000 years, perhaps more often or of larger magnitude within the last 10 million years, linking Victoria and Tasmania. Inter-locality distance measures confined to the palaeodrainage network were incorporated into an NCPA of crayfish (Engaeus sericatus Clark 1936) mitochondrial 16S rDNA haplotypes. The results were then compared to NCPAs using present-day river drainages and traditional great-circle distance measures. NCPA inferences were cross-examined using frequentist and Bayesian procedures in the context of geomorphological and historical sea-level data. We found distribution of present-day genetic variation in E. sericatus to be partly explained not only by connectivity through palaeodrainages but also via present-day drainages or overland (great circle) routes. We recommend that future studies consider all three of these distance measures, especially for studies of coastally distributed species.

Employing sea-level rise scenarios to strategically select sea turtle nesting habitat important for long-term management at a temperate breeding area

Management strategies to protect endangered species primarily focus on safeguarding habitats currently perceived as important (due to high-density use, rarity or contribution to the biological cycle), rather than sites of future ecological importance. This discrepancy is particularly relevant for species inhabiting beaches and coastal areas that may be lost due to sea-level rise over the next 100 years through climate change. Here, we modelled four sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (0.2, 0.6, 0.9 and 1.3 m) to determine the future vulnerability and viability of nesting habitat (six distinct nesting beaches totalling about 6 km in length) at a key loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) rookery (Zakynthos, Greece) in the Mediterranean. For each of the six nesting beaches, we identified (1) the area of beach currently used by turtles, (2) the area of the beach anticipated to become inundated under each SLR, (3) the area of beach anticipated to become unsuitable for nesting under each SLR, (4) the potential for habitat loss under the examined SLR, and (5) the extent to which the beaches may shift in relation to natural (i.e. cliffs) and artificial (i.e. beach front development) physical barriers. Even under the most conservative 0.2 m SLR scenario, about 38% (range: 31–48%) total nesting beach area would be lost, while an average 13% (range: 7–17%) current nesting beach area would be lost. About 4 km length of nesting habitat (representing 85% of nesting activity) would be lost under the 0.9 m scenario, because cliffs prevent landward beach migration. In comparison, while the other 2 km of beach (representing 15% nests) is also at high risk, it has the capacity for landward migration, because of an adjoining sand-dune system. Therefore, managers should strengthen actions on this latter area, as a climatically critical safeguard for future sea turtle nesting activity, in parallel to regularly assessing and revising measures on the current high-use nesting habitats of this important Mediterranean loggerhead population.

Holocene record of Tuggerah Lake estuary development on the Australian east coast: sedimentary responses to sea-level fluctuations and climate variability

We investigated the Holocene palaeo-environmental record of the Tuggerah Lake barrier estuary on the south-east coast of Australia to determine the influence of local, regional and global environmental changes on estuary development. Using multi-proxy approaches, we identified significant down-core variation in sediment cores relating to sea-level rise and regional climate change. Following erosion of the antecedent land surface during the post-glacial marine transgression, sediment began to accumulate at the more seaward location at ~8500. years before present, some 1500. years prior to barrier emplacement and ~4000. years earlier than at the landward site. The delay in sediment accumulation at the landward site was a consequence of exposure to wave action prior to barrier emplacement, and due to high river flows of the mid-Holocene post-barrier emplacement. As a consequence of the mid-Holocene reduction in river flows, coupled with a moderate decline in sea-level, the lake experienced major changes in conditions at ~4000. years before present. The entrance channel connecting the lake with the ocean became periodically constricted, producing cyclic alternation between intervals of fluvial- and marine-dominated conditions. Overall, this study provides a detailed, multi-proxy investigation of the physical evolution of Tuggerah Lake with causative environmental processes that have influenced development of the estuary.

Estimating the Impact of Catastrophic Sea Level Rise in Maine

Maine's 3,500 miles of coastline is the longest coastline in the continental US. The goal of our study was to use GIS to estimate the impact future global sea level rise could potentially have on our state. We show the area of coastline and some of the economic and social impacts that would result from a rise of one meter and six meters. We used roads to estimate the impact on infrastructure and public building, including schools, libraries, hospitals, police and fire stations, as a measure of social impact. A sea level rise of six meters would result in a loss of over 650 km¬2 from coastal communities and cost the state of Maine over 3 million in repaving costs. Through our study, we hope coastal communities will be able to prepare for and react to the predicted changes in global sea level.

Spurious shifts in the pattern of diurnal variation of sea level pressure of reanalysis datasets

The main purpose of this work is to report the presence of spurious discontinuities in the pattern of diurnal variation of sea level pressure of the three reanalysis datasets from: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Science (R1), the NCEP and Department of Energy (R2), and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ERA-40). Such discontinuities can be connected to the major changes in the global observing system that have occurred throughout reanalyses years. In the R1, the richest period in discontinuities is 1956-1958, coinciding with the start of modern radiosonde observation network. Rapid increase in the density of surface-based observations from 1967 also had an important impact on both R1 and ERA-40, with larger impact on R1. The reanalyses show discontinuities in the 1970s related to the assimilation of radiances measured by the Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer and TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounders onboard satellites. In the ERA-40, which additionally assimilated Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data, there are discontinuities in 1987-1989. The R1 also presents further discontinuities, in 1988-1993 likely connected to replacement/introduction of NOAA-series satellites with different biases, and to the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991, which is known to have severely affected measurements of infrared radiances for several years. The discontinuities in 1996-1998 might be partially connected to change in the type of radiosonde, from VIZ-B to VIZ-B2. The R2, which covers only satellite era (1979-on), shows discontinuities mainly in 1992, 1996-1997, and 2001. The discontinuities in 1992 and 2001 might have been caused by change in the satellite measurements and those in 1996-1997 by some changes in land-based observations network. © 2012 Springer-Verlag.