The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on a series of indicators of hydrological regimes across the global domain, using a global hydrological model run with climate scenarios constructed using pattern-scaling from 21 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3) climate models. Changes are compared with natural variability, with a significant change being defined as greater than the standard deviation of the hydrological indicator in the absence of climate change. Under an SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) A1b emissions scenario, substantial proportions of the land surface (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) would experience significant changes in hydrological behaviour by 2050; under one climate model scenario (Hadley Centre HadCM3), average annual runoff increases significantly over 47% of the land surface and decreases over 36%; only 17% therefore sees no significant change. There is considerable variability between regions, depending largely on projected changes in precipitation. Uncertainty in projected river flow regimes is dominated by variation in the spatial patterns of climate change between climate models (hydrological model uncertainty is not included). There is, however, a strong degree of consistency in the overall magnitude and direction of change. More than two-thirds of climate models project a significant increase in average annual runoff across almost a quarter of the land surface, and a significant decrease over 14%, with considerably higher degrees of consistency in some regions. Most climate models project increases in runoff in Canada and high-latitude eastern Europe and Siberia, and decreases in runoff in central Europe, around the Mediterranean, the Mashriq, central America and Brasil. There is some evidence that projecte change in runoff at the regional scale is not linear with change in global average temperature change. The effects of uncertainty in the rate of future emissions is relatively small

Statistical–dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to determine present day and future high-resolution rainfall distributions in the catchment of the river Aksu at the southern slopes of the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia. First, a circulation weather type (CWT) classification is employed to define typical lower atmospheric flow regimes from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Selected representatives of each CWT are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 4.8 at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.0625°, using the ERA-40 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. Finally, the simulated representatives are recombined to obtain a high-resolution rainfall climatology for present day climate. The methodology is also applied to ensemble simulations of three different scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 to derive projections of rainfall changes until 2100. Comparisons of downscaled seasonal and annual rainfall with observational data suggest that the statistical–dynamical approach is appropriate to capture the observed present-day precipitation climatology over the low lands and the first elevations of the Tienshan Mountains. On the other hand, a strong bias is found at higher altitudes, where precipitation is clearly underestimated by SDD. The application of SDD to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble reveals that precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century depend on the season. While for autumn an increase of seasonal precipitation is found for all simulations, a decrease in precipitation is obtained during winter for most parts of the Aksu catchment. The spread between different ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble members is strongest in spring, where trends of opposite sign are found. The largest changes in rainfall are simulated for the summer season, which also shows the most pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Most ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 realizations indicate a decrease of annual precipitation over large parts of the Tienshan, and an increase restricted to the southeast of the study area. These results provide a good basis for downscaling present-day and future rainfall distributions for hydrological purposes.

Energy exchange in a dense urban environment Part II: impact of spatial heterogeneity of the surface

The centre of cities, characterised by spatial and temporal complexity, are challenging environments for micrometeorological research. This paper considers the impact of sensor location and heterogeneity of the urban surface on flux observations in the dense city centre of London, UK. Data gathered at two sites in close vicinity, but with different measurement heights, were analysed to investigate the influence of source area characteristics on long-term radiation and turbulent heat fluxes. Combining consideration of diffuse radiation and effects of specular reflections, the non-Lambertian urban surface is found to impact the measurements of surface albedo. Comparisons of observations from the two sites reveal that turbulent heat fluxes are similar under some flow conditions. However, they mostly observe processes at different scales due to their differing measurement heights, highlighting the critical impact of siting sensors in urban areas. A detailed source area analysis is presented to investigate the surface controls influencing the energy exchanges at the different scales

Cognitive and environmental factors influencing the process of spatial knowledge acquisition within virtual reality environments

As the fidelity of virtual environments (VE) continues to increase, the possibility of using them as training platforms is becoming increasingly realistic for a variety of application domains, including military and emergency personnel training. In the past, there was much debate on whether the acquisition and subsequent transfer of spatial knowledge from VEs to the real world is possible, or whether the differences in medium during training would essentially be an obstacle to truly learning geometric space. In this paper, the authors present various cognitive and environmental factors that not only contribute to this process, but also interact with each other to a certain degree, leading to a variable exposure time requirement in order for the process of spatial knowledge acquisition (SKA) to occur. The cognitive factors that the authors discuss include a variety of individual user differences such as: knowledge and experience; cognitive gender differences; aptitude and spatial orientation skill; and finally, cognitive styles. Environmental factors discussed include: Size, Spatial layout complexity and landmark distribution. It may seem obvious that since every individual's brain is unique - not only through experience, but also through genetic predisposition that a one size fits all approach to training would be illogical. Furthermore, considering that various cognitive differences may further emerge when a certain stimulus is present (e.g. complex environmental space), it would make even more sense to understand how these factors can impact spatial memory, and to try to adapt the training session by providing visual/auditory cues as well as by changing the exposure time requirements for each individual. The impact of this research domain is important to VE training in general, however within service and military domains, guaranteeing appropriate spatial training is critical in order to ensure that disorientation does not occur in a life or death scenario.

Impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the Met Office global numerical weather prediction model.

The inclusion of the direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols in high-resolution global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is being increasingly recognised as important for the improved accuracy of short-range weather forecasts. In this study the impacts of increasing the aerosol complexity in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) are investigated. A hierarchy of aerosol representations are evaluated including three-dimensional monthly mean speciated aerosol climatologies, fully prognostic aerosols modelled using the CLASSIC aerosol scheme and finally, initialised aerosols using assimilated aerosol fields from the GEMS project. The prognostic aerosol schemes are better able to predict the temporal and spatial variation of atmospheric aerosol optical depth, which is particularly important in cases of large sporadic aerosol events such as large dust storms or forest fires. Including the direct effect of aerosols improves model biases in outgoing long-wave radiation over West Africa due to a better representation of dust. However, uncertainties in dust optical properties propagate to its direct effect and the subsequent model response. Inclusion of the indirect aerosol effects improves surface radiation biases at the North Slope of Alaska ARM site due to lower cloud amounts in high-latitude clean-air regions. This leads to improved temperature and height forecasts in this region. Impacts on the global mean model precipitation and large-scale circulation fields were found to be generally small in the short-range forecasts. However, the indirect aerosol effect leads to a strengthening of the low-level monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and an increase in precipitation over Southeast Asia. Regional impacts on the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) are also presented with the large dust loading in the aerosol climatology enhancing of the heat low over West Africa and weakening the AEJ. This study highlights the importance of including a more realistic treatment of aerosol–cloud interactions in global NWP models and the potential for improved global environmental prediction systems through the incorporation of more complex aerosol schemes.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.

Concordant Phylogeographies of 2 Malaria Vectors Attest to Common Spatial and Demographic Histories

The phylogeography of South American lineages is a topic of heated debate. Although a single process is unlikely to describe entire ecosystems, related species, which incur similar habitat limitations, can inform the history for a subsection of assemblages. We compared the phylogeographic patterns of the cytochrome oxidase I marker from Anopheles triannulatus (N = 72) and previous results for A. darlingi (N = 126) in a broad portion of their South American distributions. Both species share similar population subdivisions, with aggregations northeast of the Amazon River, in southern coastal Brazil and 2 regions in central Brazil. The average (ST) between these groups was 0.39 for A. triannulatus. Populations northeast of the Amazon and in southeastern Brazil are generally reciprocally monophyletic to the remaining groups. Based on these initial analyses, we constructed the a priori hypothesis that the Amazon and regions of high declivity pose geographic barriers to dispersal in these taxa. Mantel tests confirmed that these areas block gene flow for more than 1000 km for both species. The efficacy of these impediments was tested using landscape genetics, which could not reject our a priori hypothesis but did reject simpler scenarios. Results form summary statistics and phylogenetics suggest that both lineages originated in central Amazonia (south of the Amazon River) during the late Pleistocene (579 000 years ago) and that they followed the same paths of expansion into their contemporary distributions. These results may have implications for other species sharing similar ecological limitations but probably are not applicable as a general paradigm of Neotropical biogeography.

Spatial expansion and population structure of the neotropical malaria vector, Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae)

Extensive population structuring is known to occur in Anopheles darlingi, the primary malaria vector of the Neotropics. We analysed the phylogeographic structure of the species using the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I marker. Diversity is divided into six main population groups in South America: Colombia, central Amazonia, southern Brazil, south-eastern Brazil, and two groups in north-east Brazil. The ancestral distribution of the taxon is hypothesized to be central Amazonia, and there is evidence of expansion from this region during the late Pleistocene. The expansion was not a homogeneous front, however, with at least four subgroups being formed due to geographic barriers. As the species spread, populations became isolated from each other by the Amazon River and the coastal mountain ranges of south-eastern Brazil and the Andes. Analyses incorporating distances around these barriers suggest that the entire South American range of An. darlingi is at mutation-dispersal-drift equilibrium. Because the species is distributed throughout such a broad area, the limited dispersal across some landscape types promotes differentiation between otherwise proximate populations. Moreover, samples from the An. darlingi holotype location in Rio de Janeiro State are substantially derived from all other populations, implying that there may be additional genetic differences of epidemiological relevance. The results obtained contribute to our understanding of gene flow in this species and allow the formulation of human mosquito health protocols in light of the potential population differences in vector capacity or tolerance to control strategies. (C) 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 97, 854-866.

Characterization of spliced leader genes of Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) theileri: phylogeographical analysis of Brazilian isolates from cattle supports spatial clustering of genotypes and parity with ribosomal markers

Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) theileri from cattle and trypanosomes of other artiodactyls form a clade of closely related species in analyses using ribosomal sequences. Analysis of polymorphic sequences of a larger number of trypanosomes from broader geographical origins is required to evaluate the Clustering of isolates as suggested by previous studies. Here, we determined the sequences of the spliced leader (SL) genes of 21 isolates from cattle and 2 from water buffalo from distant regions of Brazil. Analysis of SL gene repeats revealed that the 5S rRNA gene is inserted within the intergenic region. Phylogeographical patterns inferred using SL sequences showed at least 5 major genotypes of T. theileri distributed in 2 strongly divergent lineages. Lineage TthI comprises genotypes IA and IB from buffalo and cattle, respectively, from the Southeast and Central regions, whereas genotype IC is restricted to cattle from the Southern region. Lineage Tth II includes cattle genotypes IIA, which is restricted to the North and Northeast, and IIB, found in the Centre, West, North and Northeast. PCR-RFLP of SL genes revealed valuable markers for genotyping T. theileri. The results of this study emphasize the genetic complexity and corroborate the geographical structuring of T. theileri genotypes found in cattle.

Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks

One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to separately analyse the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Numerical Simulation Of Sediment Transport And Bedmorphology Around A Hydraulic Structure On A River

Scour around hydraulic structures is a critical problem in hydraulic engineering. Under prediction of scour depth may lead to costly failures of the structure, while over prediction might result in unnecessary costs. Unfortunately, up-to-date empirical scour prediction formulas are based on laboratory experiments that are not always able to reproduce field conditions due to complicated geometry of rivers and temporal and spatial scales of a physical model. However, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools can perform using real field dimensions and operating conditions to predict sediment scour around hydraulic structures. In Korea, after completing the Four Major Rivers Restoration Project, several new weirs have been built across Han, Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan Rivers. Consequently, sediment deposition and bed erosion around such structures have became a major issue in these four rivers. In this study, an application of an open source CFD software package, the TELEMAC-MASCARET, to simulate sediment transport and bed morphology around Gangjeong weir, which is the largest multipurpose weir built on Nakdong River. A real bathymetry of the river and a geometry of the weir have been implemented into the numerical model. The numerical simulation is carried out with a real hydrograph at the upstream boundary. The bedmorphology obtained from the numerical results has been validated against field observation data, and a maximum of simulated scour depth is compared with the results obtained by empirical formulas of Hoffmans. Agreement between numerical computations, observed data and empirical formulas is judged to be satisfactory on all major comparisons. The outcome of this study does not only point out the locations where deposition and erosion might take place depending on the weir gate operation, but also analyzes the mechanism of formation and evolution of scour holes after the weir gates.

Longitudinal distribution and lateral pattern of megalopal settlement and juvenile recruitment of Carcinus maenas (L.) (Brachyura, Portunidae) in the Mira River Estuary, Portugal

Settlement is a critical process in the life history of crabs, and thus affecting the abundance, distribution and structure of estuarine communities. The spatial pattern of settlement of megalopae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas along a longitudinal estuarine gradient (Mira River Estuary, Portugal) was examined, as well as its effects on the juvenile population. To measure megalopal settlement, four replicate collectors were deployed in six equally spaced stations along the estuarine axis. Juveniles were collected on the same locations with a quadrat randomly deployed on the substrate. To assess fine-scale megalopal settlement within a curved region of the estuary, replicate collectors were deployed on both margins along Moinho da Asneira curve. Megalopae settled differently along the six longitudinal points, with a tendency to attenuate their settlement upstream. Within the curved region, megalopae preferentially settled on the left margin collectors, probably due to the weaker velocity speeds felt on this margin. Concerning the overall juvenile density, there were significant differences among the stations distributed along the estuary, but they did no reflect a longitudinal dispersion attenuation pattern. Size-frequency distribution of the juvenile population showed that the average size is higher on the left margin. Recruits (carapace length between 1.0 mm and 3.4 mm) were more abundant on the upstream stations. Density of early juveniles (3.4 mm-6.5 mm) and juveniles (6.5 mm-10 mm) was more stable throughout the estuary axis than that of recruits. This distribution pattern may result from tidal excursion processes or mechanisms to avoid biotic interactions, such as predation and competition. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological distribution of stream macroalgae in different spatial scales using taxonomic and morphological groups

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Assessment of the ichthyofauna in stretches under the influence of Salto Grande Reservoir (Middle Paranapanema River, SP/PR, Brazil).

Aim: To analyze the composition, species richness and spatial distribution of the fish fauna in the area under influence of the Salto Grande Reservoir; Methods: Fish were caught every two months from November/05 to October/06, using gill nets, seining nets and sieve; Results: It was registered 67 fish species, 1,964 individuals and 146.2 kg, representing CPUEn of 1,964 and CPUEb of 278 kg. The most representative orders were Characiformes, with 29 species, Siluriformes (21 species) and Perciformes (11 species) Nine non-native species were registered. The most abundant species in the reservoir were Astyanax altiparanae, Steindachnerina insculpta and Acestrorhynchus lacustris, indicating the predominance of medium and small fishes in this reservoir. The dendrogram of similarity separated the Dam and Pedra Branca stretches from Pardo River Mouth, indicating differences in the assemblages. The species turnover among the stretches was demonstrated by the beta diversity, which may be related to the diversity of habitat; Conclusions: Although being a small reservoir, it displays great habitat diversity, reflecting in the composition and structure of fish assemblages.