The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

Potential risk factors for multiple sclerosis in Rio de Janeiro: a case-control study.

PURPOSE. To evaluate potential risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis in Brazilian patients. METHOD. A case control study was carried out in 81 patients enrolled at the Department of Neurology of the Hospital da Lagoa in Rio de Janeiro, and 81 paired controls. A standardized questionnaire on demographic, social and cultural variables, and medical and family history was used. Statistical analysis was performed using descriptive statistics and conditional logistic regression models with the SPSS for Windows software program. RESULTS. Having standard vaccinations (vaccinations specified by the Brazilian government) (OR=16.2; 95% CI=2.3-115.2), smoking (OR=7.6; 95% CI=2.1-28.2), being single (OR=4.7; 95% CI=1.4-15.6) and eating animal brain (OR=3.4; 95% CI=1.2-9.8) increased the risk of developing MS. CONCLUSIONS. RESULTS of this study may contribute towards better awareness of the epidemiological characteristics of Brazilian patients with multiple sclerosis.

Human Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Prenatal Risk Factors for Cryptorchidism and Hypospadias: A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND. Exposure to xenoestrogens during pregnancy may disturb the development and function of male sexual organs. OBJECTIVE. In this study we aimed to determine whether the combined effect of environmental estrogens measured as total effective xenoestrogen burden (TEXB) is a risk factor for male urogenital malformations. METHODS. In a case-control study, nested in a mother-child cohort (n = 702) established at Granada University Hospital, we compared 50 newborns with diagnosis of cryptorchidism and/or hypospadias with 114 boys without malformations matched by gestational age, date of birth, and parity. Controls did not differ from the total cohort in confounding variables. TEXB and levels of 16 organochlorine pesticides were measured in placenta tissues. Characteristics of parents, pregnancy, and birth were gathered by questionnaire. We used conditional and unconditional regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS. TEXB from organohalogenated compounds was detectable in 72% and 54% of case and control placentas, respectively. Compared with controls, cases had an OR for detectable versus non-detectable TEXB of 2.82 (95% CI, 1.10-7.24). More pesticides were detected in cases than in controls (9.34 +/- 3.19 vs. 6.97 +/- 3.93). ORs for cases with detectable levels of pesticides, after adjusting for potential confounders in the conditional regression analysis, were o,p'-DDT (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.03-4.89), p,p'-DDT (OR = 2.63; 95% CI, 1.21-5.72), lindane (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.36-8.38), mirex (OR = 2.85; 95% CI, 1.22-6.66), and endosulfan alpha (OR = 2.19; 95% CI, 0.99-4.82). Engagement of mothers in agriculture (OR = 3.47; 95% CI, 1.33-9.03), fathers' occupational exposure to xenoestrogens (OR = 2.98; 95% CI, 1.11-8.01), and history of previous stillbirths (OR = 4.20; 95% CI, 1.11-16.66) were also associated with risk of malformations. CONCLUSIONS We found an increased risk for male urogenital malformations related to the combined effect of environmental estrogens in placenta.

Cerebral perfusion pressure and risk of brain hypoxia in severe head injury: a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION Higher and lower cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) thresholds have been proposed to improve brain tissue oxygen pressure (PtiO2) and outcome. We study the distribution of hypoxic PtiO2 samples at different CPP thresholds, using prospective multimodality monitoring in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. METHODS This is a prospective observational study of 22 severely head injured patients admitted to a neurosurgical critical care unit from whom multimodality data was collected during standard management directed at improving intracranial pressure, CPP and PtiO2. Local PtiO2 was continuously measured in uninjured areas and snapshot samples were collected hourly and analyzed in relation to simultaneous CPP. Other variables that influence tissue oxygen availability, mainly arterial oxygen saturation, end tidal carbon dioxide, body temperature and effective hemoglobin, were also monitored to keep them stable in order to avoid non-ischemic hypoxia. RESULTS Our main results indicate that half of PtiO2 samples were at risk of hypoxia (defined by a PtiO2 equal to or less than 15 mmHg) when CPP was below 60 mmHg, and that this percentage decreased to 25% and 10% when CPP was between 60 and 70 mmHg and above 70 mmHg, respectively (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION Our study indicates that the risk of brain tissue hypoxia in severely head injured patients could be really high when CPP is below the normally recommended threshold of 60 mmHg, is still elevated when CPP is slightly over it, but decreases at CPP values above it.

Increased soluble Fas plasma levels in subjects at high cardiovascular risk - Atorvastatin on inflammatory markers (AIM) study, a substudy of ACTFAST

OBJECTIVE Increasing evidence indicates that the Fas/Fas ligand interaction is involved in atherogenesis. We sought to analyze soluble Fas (sFas) and soluble Fas ligand (sFasL) concentrations in subjects at high cardiovascular risk and their modulation by atorvastatin treatment. METHODS AND RESULTS ACTFAST was a 12-week, prospective, multicenter, open-label trial which enrolled subjects (statin-free or statin-treated at baseline) with coronary heart disease (CHD), CHD-equivalent, or 10-year CHD risk > 20%. Subjects with LDL-C between 100 to 220 mg/dL (2.6 to 5.7 mmol/L) and triglycerides < or = 600 mg/dL (6.8 mmol/L) were assigned to a starting dose of atorvastatin (10 to 80 mg/d) based on LDL-C at screening. Of the 2117 subjects enrolled in ACTFAST, AIM sub-study included the 1078 statin-free patients. At study end, 85% of these subjects reached LDL-C target. Mean sFas levels were increased and sFasL were reduced in subjects at high cardiovascular risk compared with healthy subjects. Atorvastatin reduced sFas in the whole population as well as in patients with metabolic syndrome or diabetes. Minimal changes were observed in sFasL. CONCLUSIONS sFas concentrations are increased and sFasL are decreased in subjects at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting that these proteins may be novel markers of vascular injury. Atorvastatin reduces sFas, indicating that short-term treatment with atorvastatin exhibits antiinflammatory effects in these subjects.

Long-term risk of incident type 2 diabetes and measures of overall and regional obesity: the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study

BACKGROUND Waist circumference (WC) is a simple and reliable measure of fat distribution that may add to the prediction of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but previous studies have been too small to reliably quantify the relative and absolute risk of future diabetes by WC at different levels of body mass index (BMI). METHODS AND FINDINGS The prospective InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 26 centres in eight European countries and consists of 12,403 incident T2D cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a total cohort of 340,234 participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We used Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods to estimate hazard ratios for T2D. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the cumulative incidence of T2D were calculated. BMI and WC were each independently associated with T2D, with WC being a stronger risk factor in women than in men. Risk increased across groups defined by BMI and WC; compared to low normal weight individuals (BMI 18.5-22.4 kg/m(2)) with a low WC (<94/80 cm in men/women), the hazard ratio of T2D was 22.0 (95% confidence interval 14.3; 33.8) in men and 31.8 (25.2; 40.2) in women with grade 2 obesity (BMI≥35 kg/m(2)) and a high WC (>102/88 cm). Among the large group of overweight individuals, WC measurement was highly informative and facilitated the identification of a subgroup of overweight people with high WC whose 10-y T2D cumulative incidence (men, 70 per 1,000 person-years; women, 44 per 1,000 person-years) was comparable to that of the obese group (50-103 per 1,000 person-years in men and 28-74 per 1,000 person-years in women). CONCLUSIONS WC is independently and strongly associated with T2D, particularly in women, and should be more widely measured for risk stratification. If targeted measurement is necessary for reasons of resource scarcity, measuring WC in overweight individuals may be an effective strategy, since it identifies a high-risk subgroup of individuals who could benefit from individualised preventive action.

Consumption of fried foods and risk of coronary heart disease: Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between consumption of fried foods and risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. PARTICIPANTS 40 757 adults aged 29-69 and free of coronary heart disease at baseline (1992-6), followed up until 2004. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Coronary heart disease events and vital status identified by record linkage with hospital discharge registers, population based registers of myocardial infarction, and mortality registers. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 11 years, 606 coronary heart disease events and 1135 deaths from all causes occurred. Compared with being in the first (lowest) quarter of fried food consumption, the multivariate hazard ratio of coronary heart disease in the second quarter was 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.45), in the third quarter was 1.07 (0.83 to 1.38), and in the fourth quarter was 1.08 (0.82 to 1.43; P for trend 0.74). The results did not vary between those who used olive oil for frying and those who used sunflower oil. Likewise, no association was observed between fried food consumption and all cause mortality: multivariate hazard ratio for the highest versus the lowest quarter of fried food consumption was 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 1.14; P for trend 0.98). CONCLUSION In Spain, a Mediterranean country where olive or sunflower oil is used for frying, the consumption of fried foods was not associated with coronary heart disease or with all cause mortality.

Adiposity, hormone replacement therapy use and breast cancer risk by age and hormone receptor status: a large prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION Associations of hormone-receptor positive breast cancer with excess adiposity are reasonably well characterized; however, uncertainty remains regarding the association of body mass index (BMI) with hormone-receptor negative malignancies, and possible interactions by hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use. METHODS Within the European EPIC cohort, Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the relationship of BMI, waist and hip circumferences with risk of estrogen-receptor (ER) negative and progesterone-receptor (PR) negative (n = 1,021) and ER+PR+ (n = 3,586) breast tumors within five-year age bands. Among postmenopausal women, the joint effects of BMI and HRT use were analyzed. RESULTS For risk of ER-PR- tumors, there was no association of BMI across the age bands. However, when analyses were restricted to postmenopausal HRT never users, a positive risk association with BMI (third versus first tertile HR = 1.47 (1.01 to 2.15)) was observed. BMI was inversely associated with ER+PR+ tumors among women aged ≤49 years (per 5 kg/m2 increase, HR = 0.79 (95%CI 0.68 to 0.91)), and positively associated with risk among women ≥65 years (HR = 1.25 (1.16 to 1.34)). Adjusting for BMI, waist and hip circumferences showed no further associations with risks of breast cancer subtypes. Current use of HRT was significantly associated with an increased risk of receptor-negative (HRT current use compared to HRT never use HR: 1.30 (1.05 to 1.62)) and positive tumors (HR: 1.74 (1.56 to 1.95)), although this risk increase was weaker for ER-PR- disease (Phet = 0.035). The association of HRT was significantly stronger in the leaner women (BMI ≤22.5 kg/m2) than for more overweight women (BMI ≥25.9 kg/m2) for, both, ER-PR- (HR: 1.74 (1.15 to 2.63)) and ER+PR+ (HR: 2.33 (1.84 to 2.92)) breast cancer and was not restricted to any particular HRT regime. CONCLUSIONS An elevated BMI may be positively associated with risk of ER-PR- tumors among postmenopausal women who never used HRT. Furthermore, postmenopausal HRT users were at an increased risk of ER-PR- as well as ER+PR+ tumors, especially among leaner women. For hormone-receptor positive tumors, but not for hormone-receptor negative tumors, our study confirms an inverse association of risk with BMI among young women of premenopausal age. Our data provide evidence for a possible role of sex hormones in the etiology of hormone-receptor negative tumors.

Multiple miscarriages are associated with the risk of ovarian cancer: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

While the risk of ovarian cancer clearly reduces with each full-term pregnancy, the effect of incomplete pregnancies is unclear. We investigated whether incomplete pregnancies (miscarriages and induced abortions) are associated with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer. This observational study was carried out in female participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). A total of 274,442 women were followed from 1992 until 2010. The baseline questionnaire elicited information on miscarriages and induced abortions, reproductive history, and lifestyle-related factors. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 1,035 women were diagnosed with incident epithelial ovarian cancer. Despite the lack of an overall association (ever vs. never), risk of ovarian cancer was higher among women with multiple incomplete pregnancies (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.74, 95% CI: 1.20-2.70; number of cases in this category: n = 23). This association was particularly evident for multiple miscarriages (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.99, 95% CI: 1.06-3.73; number of cases in this category: n = 10), with no significant association for multiple induced abortions (HR(≥4vs.0): 1.46, 95% CI: 0.68-3.14; number of cases in this category: n = 7). Our findings suggest that multiple miscarriages are associated with an increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer, possibly through a shared cluster of etiological factors or a common underlying pathology. These findings should be interpreted with caution as this is the first study to show this association and given the small number of cases in the highest exposure categories.

Common variants of the liver fatty acid binding protein gene influence the risk of type 2 diabetes and insulin resistance in Spanish population

SUMMARY The main objective was to evaluate the association between SNPs and haplotypes of the FABP1-4 genes and type 2 diabetes, as well as its interaction with fat intake, in one general Spanish population. The association was replicated in a second population in which HOMA index was also evaluated. METHODS 1217 unrelated individuals were selected from a population-based study [Hortega study: 605 women; mean age 54 y; 7.8% with type 2 diabetes]. The replication population included 805 subjects from Segovia, a neighboring region of Spain (446 females; mean age 52 y; 10.3% with type 2 diabetes). DM2 mellitus was defined in a similar way in both studies. Fifteen SNPs previously associated with metabolic traits or with potential influence in the gene expression within the FABP1-4 genes were genotyped with SNPlex and tested. Age, sex and BMI were used as covariates in the logistic regression model. RESULTS One polymorphism (rs2197076) and two haplotypes of the FABP-1 showed a strong association with the risk of DM2 in the original population. This association was further confirmed in the second population as well as in the pooled sample. None of the other analyzed variants in FABP2, FABP3 and FABP4 genes were associated. There was not a formal interaction between rs2197076 and fat intake. A significant association between the rs2197076 and the haplotypes of the FABP1 and HOMA-IR was also present in the replication population. CONCLUSIONS The study supports the role of common variants of the FABP-1 gene in the development of type 2 diabetes in Caucasians.

DRB1*03:01 haplotypes: differential contribution to multiple sclerosis risk and specific association with the presence of intrathecal IgM bands.

BACKGROUND Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifactorial disease with a genetic basis. The strongest associations with the disease lie in the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region. However, except for the DRB1*15:01 allele, the main risk factor associated to MS so far, no consistent effect has been described for any other variant. One example is HLA-DRB1*03:01, with a heterogeneous effect across populations and studies. We postulate that those discrepancies could be due to differences in the diverse haplotypes bearing that allele. Thus, we aimed at studying the association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility considering this allele globally and stratified by haplotypes. We also evaluated the association with the presence of oligoclonal IgM bands against myelin lipids (OCMB) in cerebrospinal fluid. METHODS Genotyping of HLA-B, -DRB1 and -DQA1 was performed in 1068 MS patients and 624 ethnically matched healthy controls. One hundred and thirty-nine MS patients were classified according to the presence (M+, 58 patients)/absence (M-, 81 patients) of OCMB. Comparisons between groups (MS patients vs. controls and M+ vs. M-) were performed with the chi-square test or the Fisher exact test. RESULTS Association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility was observed but with different haplotypic contribution, being the ancestral haplotype (AH) 18.2 the one causing the highest risk. Comparisons between M+, M- and controls showed that the AH 18.2 was affecting only M+ individuals, conferring a risk similar to that caused by DRB1*15:01. CONCLUSIONS The diverse DRB1*03:01-containing haplotypes contribute with different risk to MS susceptibility. The AH 18.2 causes the highest risk and affects only to individuals showing OCMB.

Gender-Specific Effects of Genetic Variants within Th1 and Th17 Cell-Mediated Immune Response Genes on the Risk of Developing Rheumatoid Arthritis.

The present study was conducted to explore whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Th1 and Th17 cell-mediated immune response genes differentially influence the risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in women and men. In phase one, 27 functional/tagging polymorphisms in C-type lectins and MCP-1/CCR2 axis were genotyped in 458 RA patients and 512 controls. Carriers of Dectin-2 rs4264222T allele had an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.47, 95%CI 1.10-1.96) whereas patients harboring the DC-SIGN rs4804803G, MCP-1 rs1024611G, MCP-1 rs13900T and MCP-1 rs4586C alleles had a decreased risk of developing the disease (OR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.49-0.88; OR = 0.66, 95%CI 0.50-0.89; OR = 0.73, 95%CI 0.55-0.97 and OR = 0.68, 95%CI 0.51-0.91). Interestingly, significant gender-specific differences were observed for Dectin-2 rs4264222 and Dectin-2 rs7134303: women carrying the Dectin-2 rs4264222T and Dectin-2 rs7134303G alleles had an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.93, 95%CI 1.34-2.79 and OR = 1.90, 95%CI 1.29-2.80). Also five other SNPs showed significant associations only with one gender: women carrying the MCP-1 rs1024611G, MCP-1 rs13900T and MCP-1 rs4586C alleles had a decreased risk of RA (OR = 0.61, 95%CI 0.43-0.87; OR = 0.67, 95%CI 0.47-0.95 and OR = 0.60, 95%CI 0.42-0.86). In men, carriers of the DC-SIGN rs2287886A allele had an increased risk of RA (OR = 1.70, 95%CI 1.03-2.78), whereas carriers of the DC-SIGN rs4804803G had a decreased risk of developing the disease (OR = 0.53, 95%CI 0.32-0.89). In phase 2, we genotyped these SNPs in 754 RA patients and 519 controls, leading to consistent gender-specific associations for Dectin-2 rs4264222, MCP-1 rs1024611, MCP-1 rs13900 and DC-SIGN rs4804803 polymorphisms in the pooled sample (OR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.08-1.77; OR = 0.74, 95%CI 0.58-0.94; OR = 0.76, 95%CI 0.59-0.97 and OR = 0.56, 95%CI 0.34-0.93). SNP-SNP interaction analysis of significant SNPs also showed a significant two-locus interaction model in women that was not seen in men. This model consisted of Dectin-2 rs4264222 and Dectin-2 rs7134303 SNPs and suggested a synergistic effect between the variants. These findings suggest that Dectin-2, MCP-1 and DC-SIGN polymorphisms may, at least in part, account for gender-associated differences in susceptibility to RA.

Official Positions for FRAX(®) clinical regarding glucocorticoids: the impact of the use of glucocorticoids on the estimate by FRAX(®) of the 10 year risk of fracture from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX(®).

Given the significant impact the use of glucocorticoids can have on fracture risk independent of bone density, their use has been incorporated as one of the clinical risk factors for calculating the 10-year fracture risk in the World Health Organization's Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX(®)). Like the other clinical risk factors, the use of glucocorticoids is included as a dichotomous variable with use of steroids defined as past or present exposure of 3 months or more of use of a daily dose of 5 mg or more of prednisolone or equivalent. The purpose of this report is to give clinicians guidance on adjustments which should be made to the 10-year risk based on the dose, duration of use and mode of delivery of glucocorticoids preparations. A subcommittee of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation joint Position Development Conference presented its findings to an expert panel and the following recommendations were selected. 1) There is a dose relationship between glucocorticoid use of greater than 3 months and fracture risk. The average dose exposure captured within FRAX(®) is likely to be a prednisone dose of 2.5-7.5 mg/day or its equivalent. Fracture probability is under-estimated when prednisone dose is greater than 7.5 mg/day and is over-estimated when the prednisone dose is less than 2.5 mg/day. 2) Frequent intermittent use of higher doses of glucocorticoids increases fracture risk. Because of the variability in dose and dosing schedule, quantification of this risk is not possible. 3) High dose inhaled glucocorticoids may be a risk factor for fracture. FRAX(®) may underestimate fracture probability in users of high dose inhaled glucocorticoids. 4) Appropriate glucocorticoid replacement in individuals with adrenal insufficiency has not been found to increase fracture risk. In such patients, use of glucocorticoids should not be included in FRAX(®) calculations.

Research letter: is neuroticism a risk factor for postpartum depression?

Although the relationship between personality and depressive illness is complex (Shea, 2005), there is empirical evidence that some personality features such as neuroticism, harm avoidance, introversion, dependency, self-criticism or perfectionism are related to depressive illness risk (Gunderson et al. 1999).

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.