847 resultados para Risk and loss functions


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Measuring antibiotic-induced killing relies on time-consuming biological tests. The firefly luciferase gene (luc) was successfully used as a reporter gene to assess antibiotic efficacy rapidly in slow-growing Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We tested whether luc expression could also provide a rapid evaluation of bactericidal drugs in Streptococcus gordonii. The suicide vectors pFW5luc and a modified version of pJDC9 carrying a promoterless luc gene were used to construct transcriptional-fusion mutants. One mutant susceptible to penicillin-induced killing (LMI2) and three penicillin-tolerant derivatives (LMI103, LMI104, and LMI105) producing luciferase under independent streptococcal promoters were tested. The correlation between antibiotic-induced killing and luminescence was determined with mechanistically unrelated drugs. Chloramphenicol (20 times the MIC) inhibited bacterial growth. In parallel, luciferase stopped increasing and remained stable, as determined by luminescence and Western blots. Ciprofloxacin (200 times the MIC) rapidly killed 1.5 log10 CFU/ml in 2-4 hr. Luminescence decreased simultaneously by 10-fold. In contrast, penicillin (200 times the MIC) gave discordant results. Although killing was slow (< or = 0.5 log10 CFU/ml in 2 hr), luminescence dropped abruptly by 50-100-times in the same time. Inactivating penicillin with penicillinase restored luminescence, irrespective of viable counts. This was not due to altered luciferase expression or stability, suggesting some kind of post-translational modification. Luciferase shares homology with aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase and acyl-CoA ligase, which might be regulated by macromolecule synthesis and hence affected in penicillin-inhibited cells. Because of resemblance, luciferase might be down-regulated simultaneously. Luminescence cannot be universally used to predict antibiotic-induced killing. Thus, introducing reporter enzymes sharing mechanistic similarities with normal metabolic reactions might reveal other effects than those expected.

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Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20-105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) , the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m(2) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

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BACKGROUND Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a multifactorial disease with a genetic basis. The strongest associations with the disease lie in the Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) region. However, except for the DRB1*15:01 allele, the main risk factor associated to MS so far, no consistent effect has been described for any other variant. One example is HLA-DRB1*03:01, with a heterogeneous effect across populations and studies. We postulate that those discrepancies could be due to differences in the diverse haplotypes bearing that allele. Thus, we aimed at studying the association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility considering this allele globally and stratified by haplotypes. We also evaluated the association with the presence of oligoclonal IgM bands against myelin lipids (OCMB) in cerebrospinal fluid. METHODS Genotyping of HLA-B, -DRB1 and -DQA1 was performed in 1068 MS patients and 624 ethnically matched healthy controls. One hundred and thirty-nine MS patients were classified according to the presence (M+, 58 patients)/absence (M-, 81 patients) of OCMB. Comparisons between groups (MS patients vs. controls and M+ vs. M-) were performed with the chi-square test or the Fisher exact test. RESULTS Association of DRB1*03:01 with MS susceptibility was observed but with different haplotypic contribution, being the ancestral haplotype (AH) 18.2 the one causing the highest risk. Comparisons between M+, M- and controls showed that the AH 18.2 was affecting only M+ individuals, conferring a risk similar to that caused by DRB1*15:01. CONCLUSIONS The diverse DRB1*03:01-containing haplotypes contribute with different risk to MS susceptibility. The AH 18.2 causes the highest risk and affects only to individuals showing OCMB.

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The 24-hour rest-activity pattern and the amount of motor activity was studied in a patient with fatal familial insomnia (FFI) by means of wrist actigraphy. During the study, the patient underwent indirect calorimetry. The 52-day recording showed severe disruption of the 24-hour rest-activity pattern with increased motor activity up to 80%. The 24-hour energy expenditure, assayed in a respiration chamber, was strikingly elevated by 60%. Chronic motor overactivity and loss of circadian rest-activity rhythm may play a role in the progressive metabolic exhaustion leading to death in FFI patients.

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BACKGROUND Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease that occurs more frequently in women than in men. Multiple Sclerosis Associated Retrovirus (MSRV) is a member of HERV-W, a multicopy human endogenous retroviral family repeatedly implicated in MS pathogenesis. MSRV envelope protein is elevated in the serum of MS patients and induces inflammation and demyelination but, in spite of this pathogenic potential, its exact genomic origin and mechanism of generation are unknown. A possible link between the HERV-W copy on chromosome Xq22.3, that contains an almost complete open reading frame, and the gender differential prevalence in MS has been suggested. RESULTS MSRV transcription levels were higher in MS patients than in controls (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.004). Also, they were associated with the clinical forms (Spearman; p = 0.0003) and with the Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) (Spearman; p = 0.016). By mapping a 3 kb region in Xq22.3, including the HERV-W locus, we identified three polymorphisms: rs6622139 (T/C), rs6622140 (G/A) and rs1290413 (G/A). After genotyping 3127 individuals (1669 patients and 1458 controls) from two different Spanish cohorts, we found that in women rs6622139 T/C was associated with MS susceptibility: [χ2; p = 0.004; OR (95% CI) = 0.50 (0.31-0.81)] and severity, since CC women presented lower MSSS scores than CT (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.039) or TT patients (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.031). Concordantly with the susceptibility conferred in women, rs6622139*T was associated with higher MSRV expression (U-Mann-Whitney; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS Our present work supports the hypothesis of a direct involvement of HERV-W/MSRV in MS pathogenesis, identifying a genetic marker on chromosome X that could be one of the causes underlying the gender differences in MS.

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The relationship between motor and intellectual functions was examined in 252 healthy children from 7 to 18 years using the Zurich Neuromotor Assessment and standardized intelligence tests. The magnitude of Spearman correlations between neuromotor and intellectual scores was generally weak (r = 0.15-0.37). The strongest correlations were found between performance in the pegboard task and visuomotor intelligence (r = 0.35) and between contralateral associated movements and intelligence in boys (r = 0.37). We conclude that specific connections between motor and intellectual functions may exist. However, because the magnitude of correlations is generally weak, we suggest that motor and intellectual domains in healthy children are largely independent.

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The mucosal epithelia of the digestive tract acts as a selective barrier, permeable to ions, small molecules and macromolecules. These epithelial cells aid the digestion of food and absorption of nutrients. They contribute to the protection against pathogens and undergo continuous cell renewal which facilitates the elimination of damaged cells. Both innate and adaptive defence mechanisms protect the gastrointestinal-mucosal surfaces against pathogens. Interaction of microorganisms with epithelial cells triggers a host response by activating specific transcription factors which control the expression of chemokines and cytokines. This host response is characterized by the recruitment of macrophages and neutrophils at the site of infection. Disruption of epithelial signalling pathways that recruit migratory immune cells results in a chronic inflammatory response. The adaptive defence mechanism relies on the collaboration of epithelial cells (resident sampling system) with antigen-presenting and lymphoid cells (migratory sampling system); in order to obtain samples of foreign antigen, these samples must be transported across the barriers without affecting the integrity of the barrier. These sampling systems are regulated by both environmental and host factors. Fates of the antigen may differ depending on the way in which they cross the epithelial barrier, i.e. via interaction with motile dendritic cells or epithelial M cells in the follicle-associated epithelium.

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An experiment was conducted in France to evaluate the impact of health information on consumers’ choice between two different types of fish. Successive messages revealing risks (methylmercury) and benefits (omega-3s) of consuming the fish, along with consumption recommendations, were delivered. Results show a significant difference of reaction according to the order and type of information. The information about risks had a larger marginal impact on change in willingness to pay (WTP) than did the information about benefits. While the results show that detailed messages on risks/benefits, including recommendations for nutrition behavior, matter in the modification of WTP, 40% of respondents did not change their initial choices after the revelation of health information.

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Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent with models of heterogeneous income profiles.

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The position of a gene in the genome may have important consequences for its function. Therefore, when a new duplicate gene arises, its location may be critical in determining its fate. Our recent work in humans, mouse, and Drosophila provided a test by studying the patterns of duplication in sex chromosome evolution. We revealed a bias in the generation and recruitment of new gene copies involving the X chromosome that has been shaped largely by selection for male germline functions. The gene movement patterns we observed reflect an ongoing process as some of the new genes are very young while others were present before the divergence of humans and mouse. This suggests a continuing redistribution of male-related genes to achieve a more efficient allocation of male functions. This notion should be further tested in organisms employing other sex determination systems or in organisms differing in germline sex chromosome inactivation. It is likely that the selective forces that were detected in these studies are also acting on other types of duplicate genes. As a result, future work elucidating sex chromosome differentiation by other mutational mechanisms will shed light on this important process.

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We report results from a randomized policy experiment designed to test whether increasedaudit risk deters rent extraction in local public procurement and service delivery in Brazil. Ourestimates suggest that temporarily increasing annual audit risk by about 20 percentage pointsreduced the proportion of irregular local procurement processes by about 17 percentage points.This reduction was driven entirely by irregularities involving mismanagement or corruption. Incontrast, we find no evidence that increased audit risk affected the quality of publicly providedpreventive and primary health care services -measured based on user satisfaction surveys- orcompliance with national regulations of the conditional cash transfer program "Bolsa Família".

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Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

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Conventional wisdom views the problem of sovereign risk as one of insufficient penalties.Foreign creditors can only be repaid if the government enforces foreign debts. And this will onlyhappen if foreign creditors can effectively use the threat of imposing penalties to the country.Guided by this assessment of the problem, policy prescriptions to reduce sovereign risk havefocused on providing incentives for governments to enforce foreign debts. For instance, countriesmight want to favor increased trade ties and other forms of foreign dependence that make themvulnerable to foreign retaliation thereby increasing the costs of default penalties.

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A number of existing studies have concluded that risk sharing allocations supported by competitive, incomplete markets equilibria are quantitatively close to first-best. Equilibrium asset prices in these models have been difficult to distinguish from those associated with a complete markets model, the counterfactual features of which have been widely documented. This paper asks if life cycle considerations, in conjunction with persistent idiosyncratic shocks which become more volatile during aggregate downturns, can reconcile the quantitative properties of the competitive asset pricing framework with those of observed asset returns. We begin by arguing that data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics support the plausibility of such a shock process. Our estimates suggest a high degree of persistence as well as a substantial increase in idiosyncratic conditional volatility coincident with periods of low growth in U.S. GNP. When these factors are incorporated in a stationary overlapping generations framework, the implications for the returns on risky assets are substantial. Plausible parameterizations of our economy are able to generate Sharpe ratios which match those observed in U.S. data. Our economy cannot, however, account for the level of variability of stock returns, owing in large part to the specification of its production technology.