Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modelling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modeling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Action following the discovery of a global association between the whole genome and adverse event risk in a clinical drug-development programme

Observation of adverse drug reactions during drug development can cause closure of the whole programme. However, if association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event is discovered, then it might suffice to exclude patients of certain genotypes from future recruitment. Various sequential and non-sequential procedures are available to identify an association between the whole genome, or at least a portion of it, and the incidence of adverse events. In this paper we start with a suspected association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event and suppose that the genetic subgroups with elevated risk can be identified. Our focus is determination of whether the patients identified as being at risk should be excluded from further studies of the drug. We propose using a utility function to? determine the appropriate action, taking into account the relative costs of suffering an adverse reaction and of failing to alleviate the patient's disease. Two illustrative examples are presented, one comparing patients who suffer from an adverse event with contemporary patients who do not, and the other making use of a reference control group. We also illustrate two classification methods, LASSO and CART, for identifying patients at risk, but we stress that any appropriate classification method could be used in conjunction with the proposed utility function. Our emphasis is on determining the action to take rather than on providing definitive evidence of an association. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth’s surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth’s surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

Enhanced classification of Chagas serologic results and epidemiologic characteristics of seropositive donors at three large blood centers in Brazil

BACKGROUND: A major problem in Chagas disease donor screening is the high frequency of samples with inconclusive results. The objective of this study was to describe patterns of serologic results among donors to the three Brazilian REDS-II blood centers and correlate with epidemiologic characteristics. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The centers screened donor samples with one Trypanosoma cruzi lysate enzyme immunoassay (EIA). EIA-reactive samples were tested with a second lysate EIA, a recombinant-antigen based EIA, and an immunfluorescence assay. Based on the serologic results, samples were classified as confirmed positive (CP), probable positive (PP), possible other parasitic infection (POPI), and false positive (FP). RESULTS: In 2007 to 2008, a total of 877 of 615,433 donations were discarded due to Chagas assay reactivity. The prevalences (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) among first-time donors for CP, PP, POPI, and FP patterns were 114 (99-129), 26 (19-34), 10 (5-14), and 96 (82-110) per 100,000 donations, respectively. CP and PP had similar patterns of prevalence when analyzed by age, sex, education, and location, suggesting that PP cases represent true T. cruzi infections; in contrast the demographics of donors with POPI were distinct and likely unrelated to Chagas disease. No CP cases were detected among 218,514 repeat donors followed for a total of 718,187 person-years. CONCLUSION: We have proposed a classification algorithm that may have practical importance for donor counseling and epidemiologic analyses of T. cruzi-seroreactive donors. The absence of incident T. cruzi infections is reassuring with respect to risk of window phase infections within Brazil and travel-related infections in nonendemic countries such as the United States.

Valuing emerging markets companies : new approaches to determine the effective exposure to country risk

The aim of this paper is to propose new methods to measure the effective exposure to country risk of emerging-market companies. Starting from Damodaran (2003), we propose seven new approaches and a revised CAPM for emerging markets companies. The “Prospective Lambda” represents the effective exposure according to analysts’ estimates of growth. The “Relative Lambda” relies on the firm value estimated through a relative valuation. The “Retrospective Lambda” represents the ex-post effective exposure to country risk. The “Company Effective Risk Premium” is a generalization of the Retrospective Lambda, and expresses the premium effectively requested by investors to invest in that specific company in the past year. “The Actual Lambda” and the “Company Actual Risk Premium” represent, respectively, the actual exposure to country risk of a company and the actual premium requested by investors to invest in that specific company. The “Industry Lambda” reflects the median exposure to country risk of the industry in which the company belongs. We tested our new measures of exposure to country risk on the Latin American emerging markets companies according to the classification of the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index. The results confirm that the new approaches can be effectively applied by financial analysts to stable-growth companies that operate in emerging markets and to mature markets companies that operate in emerging markets, providing with a more reliable estimate of both the premium effectively requested by investors in the past and the actual premium. Applying the new approaches, the cost of equity reflects the effective exposure of a company to country risk without being over- or underestimated, as is the case with other existing approaches.

Environmental Fate of Neonicotinoids and Classification of Their Potential Risks to Hypogean, Epygean, and Surface Water Ecosystems in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Metabolic syndrome and dietary components are associated with coronary artery disease risk score in free-living adults: a cross-sectional study

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mapping soil pollution by spatial analysis and fuzzy classification

Spatial analysis and fuzzy classification techniques were used to estimate the spatial distributions of heavy metals in soil. The work was applied to soils in a coastal region that is characterized by intense urban occupation and large numbers of different industries. Concentrations of heavy metals were determined using geostatistical techniques and classes of risk were defined using fuzzy classification. The resulting prediction mappings identify the locations of high concentrations of Pb, Zn, Ni, and Cu in topsoils of the study area. The maps show that areas of high pollution of Ni and Cu are located at the northeast, where there is a predominance of industrial and agricultural activities; Pb and Zn also occur in high concentrations in the northeast, but the maps also show significant concentrations of Pb and Zn in other areas, mainly in the central and southeastern parts, where there are urban leisure activities and trade centers. Maps were also prepared showing levels of pollution risk. These maps show that (1) Cu presents a large pollution risk in the north-northwest, midwest, and southeast sectors, (2) Pb represents a moderate risk in most areas, (3) Zn generally exhibits low risk, and (4) Ni represents either low risk or no risk in the studied area. This study shows that combining geostatistics with fuzzy theory can provide results that offer insight into risk assessment for environmental pollution.

BODE Index and GOLD Staging as Predictors of 1-Year Exacerbation Risk in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk factors for vascular dementia in elderly psychiatric outpatients with preserved cognitive functions

The aim of the study was to assess risk factors for vascular dementia (VaD) in elderly psychiatric outpatients without dementia, and to determine to what extent clinical interventions targeted such risk factors. Out of 250 clinical charts, 78 were selected of patients over 60 years old, who showed no signs of dementia. Information was obtained regarding demographics, clinical conditions (diagnosis according to ICD-10), complementary investigation, cognitive functions (via CAMCOG), neuroimaging, and the presence of risk factors for VaD. Depression was the most prevalent psychiatric disorder (74%). A great majority of the patients (86%) had at least one risk factor for VaD. One-third of the sample showed three or more risk factors for VaD. The clinical conditions related to risk factors for VaD were hypertension (48.7%), heart disease (30.8%), hypercholesterolemia (25.6%), diabetes mellitus (23.1%), stroke (12.8%), tryglyceride (12.8%), and obesity (5.1%). In terms of lifestyle, smoking (19.2%), alcohol abuse (16.7%), and sedentarism (14.1%) were other risk factors found. Definite risk factors for VaD were found in 83.3% of the patients. Previous interventions targeting risk factors were found in only 20% of the cases. The high rates of risk factors for VaD identified in this sample suggest that psychiatrists should be more attentive to these factors for the prevention of VaD. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of enamel white spots and risk factors in children up to 36 months old

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of enamel white spots and the quality of oral hygiene in children up to 36 months old, in municipalities with different fluoride levels in the water supply, analyzing the contribution of several variables. After approval of the Ethics Committee, the parents signed an informed consent form and were interviewed about their educational level, economic classification of the family, nursing habits, use of toothpaste, access to dental service and other information. The children were clinically examined using the same codes and criteria established by the WHO (World Health Organization) and ADA (American Dental Association). The data were processed and analyzed with the Epi-info software program, version 3.2, and Microsoft Excel. Fisher's exact test (p<0.05) was applied to assess the association among the variables. The enamel white spot prevalence was 30.8% and the age group, duration of the bedtime milk feeding habit, age of initial practice of oral hygiene and presence of caries lesions with cavitation were considered statistically significant with regard to enamel white spot prevalence (p < 0.05). No association was found between oral hygiene quality and the study variables. © 2009 Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Odontológica.

Overexpression of ANXA1 in Penile Carcinomas Positive for High-Risk HPVs

The incidence of penile cancer varies between populations but is rare in developed nations. Penile cancer is associated with a number of established risk factors and associated diseases including phimosis with chronic inflammation, human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, poor hygiene and smoking. The objective of this study was to identify genes related to this type of cancer. The detection of HPV was analyzed in 47 penile squamous cell carcinoma samples. HPV DNA was detected in 48.9% of penile squamous cell carcinoma cases. High-risk HPV were present in 42.5% of cases and low-risk HPV were detected in 10.6% of penile squamous cell carcinomas. The RaSH approach identified differential expression of Annexin A1 (ANXA1), p16, RPL6, PBEF1 and KIAA1033 in high-risk HPV positive penile carcinoma; ANXA1 and p16 were overexpressed in penile squamous cells positive for high-risk HPVs compared to normal penile samples by qPCR. ANXA1 and p16 proteins were significantly more expressed in the cells from high-risk HPV-positive penile carcinoma as compared to HPV-negative tumors (p<0.0001) independently of the subtype of the carcinoma. Overexpression of ANXA1 might be mediated by HPV E6 in penile squamous cell carcinoma of patients with high-risk HPVs, suggesting that this gene plays an important role in penile cancer. © 2013 Calmon et al.

Risk factors for postoperative endoscopic recurrence in Crohn's disease: a Brazilian observational study

Introduction: Postoperative endoscopic recurrence (PER) is the initial event after intestinal resection in Crohn’s disease (CD), and after a few years most patients present with progressive symptoms and complications related to the disease. The identification of risk factors for PER can help in the optimization of postoperative therapy and contribute to its prevention. Methods: Retrospective, longitudinal, multicenter, observational study involving patients with CD who underwent ileocolic resections. The patients were allocated into two groups according to the presence of PER and the variables of interest were analyzed to identify the associated factors for recurrence. Results: Eighty-five patients were included in the study. The mean period of the first postoperative colonoscopy was 12.8 (3–120) months and PER was observed in 28 patients (32.9%). There was no statistical difference in relation to gender, mean age, duration of CD, family history, previous intestinal resections, smoking, Montreal classification, blood transfusion, residual CD, surgical technique, postoperative complications, presence of granulomas at histology, specimen extension and use of postoperative biological therapy. The preoperative use of corticosteroids was the only variable that showed a significant difference between the groups in univariate analysis, being more common in patients with PER (42.8% vs. 21%; p = 0.044). Conclusions: PER was observed in 32.9% of the patients. The preoperative use of corticosteroids was the only risk factor associated with PER in this observational analysis.

Leprosy reactions: coinfections as a possible risk factor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the frequency of coinfections in leprosy patients and whether there is a relationship between the presence of coinfections and the development of leprosy reactional episodes. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on an analysis of the medical records of the patients who were treated at the Leprosy Clinics of the Ribeirao Preto Medical School, University of Sao Paulo, was conducted from 2000 to 2010. Information was recorded regarding the age, sex, clinical status, WHO classification, treatment, presence of reactions and coinfections. Focal and systemic infections were diagnosed based on the history, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between the leprosy reactions and the patients' gender, age, WHO classification and coinfections. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-five patients were studied. Most of these patients were males (155/225 = 68.8%) of an average age of 49.31 +/- 15.92 years, and the most prevalent clinical manifestation was the multibacillary (MB) form (n = 146), followed by the paucibacillary (PB) form (n = 79). Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) was more prevalent (78/122 = 63.9%) than the reversal reaction (RR) (44/122 = 36.1%), especially in the MB patients (OR 5.07; CI 2.86-8.99; p<0.0001) who exhibited coinfections (OR 2.26; CI 1.56-3.27; p<0.0001). Eighty-eight (88/225 = 39.1%) patients exhibited coinfections. Oral coinfections were the most prevalent (40/88 = 45.5%), followed by urinary tract infections (17/88 = 19.3%), sinusopathy (6/88 = 6.8%), hepatitis C (6/88 = 6.8%), and hepatitis B (6/88 = 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfections may be involved in the development and maintenance of leprosy reactions.