The Key party in the catalan government

This paper analyzes the different compositions of the catalan governing coalitions during the current democratic period, and offers some predictions about the coalitions that can be expected in the future. During this period, in catalan politics, there have been two main political issues over which the different parties have taken positions: rightist versus leftist with respect to economic policy, and sovereign versus centralist with respect to the power distribution within the state. I find that for any allocation of parliament seats there is a key party: a party that has a clear advantage in terms of being able to decide the composition of the governing coalition. I show the features that allow a party to become the key party and those that affect the size of the advantage of the key party.

Percutaneous drainage versus emergency cholecystectomy for the treatment of acute cholecystitis in critically ill patients : does it matter ?

RESUME DE THESEContexte de l'étudeLe but de cette étude est de comparer le drainage percutané (DP) et la chirurgie d'urgence (CU) de la vésicule biliaire (VB) pour le traitement de la cholécystite aiguë lithiasique/alithiasique dans un groupe homogène de patients gravement malades et hospitalisés aux soins intensifs (SI).Patients et méthodeEntre les années 2001 et 2007, tous les patients successivement traités par DP ou CU pour cholécystite aiguë aux SI ont été rétrospectivement analysés. Les cas ont été collectés à partir d'une base de données prospective. Le DP était effectué par voie trans-hépatique et la chirurgie par voie ouverte ou laparoscopique. L'état général des patients et la dysfonction des organes étaient évalués par deux scores validés (SAPS Π et SOFA, respectivement). L'analyse des données s'est portée sur les complications à court terme (morbidité, mortalité hospitalière) et à long terme (récurrence des symptômes) après drainage ou chirurgie en urgence.RésultatsQuarante-deux patients (âge médian 65 ans, 32-94 ans) ont été inclus dans l'étude ; 45% ont eu une CU (10 laparoscopics, 9 voies ouvertes) et 55% un DP (n=23) de la vésicule biliaire. Le DP et la CU ont eu des taux de succès respectifs de 91 et 100% pour la résolution du sepsis lié à la cholécystite aigiie. Après drainage et chirurgie de la VB, la dysfonction des organes secondaire au sepsis s'est résolue dans les 3 jours. Malgré le drainage, deux patients ont nécessité une cholécystectomie en urgence pour cholécystite gangréneuse. Le taux de conversion de la laparoscopic à la voie ouverte était de 20%. La morbidité majeure était de 0% après drainage et 21% après chirurgie en urgence (p=0.034). Finalement, la mortalité hospitalière était similaire (13% après DP vs. 16% après CU, p=1.0) et uniquement liée aux co-morbidités des patients. La récurrence des symptômes liés à la VB n'est apparue que chez des patients initialement drainés pour cholécystite lithiasique.ConclusionsChez les patients gravement malades des soins intensifs, le drainage percutané et la chirurgie en urgence de la VB sont tous deux efficaces pour la résolution d'un sepsis lié à une cholécystite aigiie. Cependant, la chirurgie d'urgence est associée à une morbidité majeure accrue et l'approche par laparoscopic n'est pas toujours réalisable. Le drainage percutané de la VB est donc une modalité de traitement valable, mais nécessite à distance de l'épisode aigu une cholécystectomie par laparoscopic, surtout après une cholécystite lithiasique.

Economic Principles and Determination of Infrastructure Third Party Tariffs in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS)

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 116

Accuracy of a new transmittance-reflectance pulse oximetry sensor in critically ill neonates.

OBJECTIVE: To test the accuracy of a new pulse oximeter sensor based on transmittance and reflectance. This sensor makes transillumination of tissue unnecessary and allows measurements on the hand, forearm, foot, and lower limb. DESIGN: Prospective, open, nonrandomized criterion standard study. SETTING: Neonatal intensive care unit, tertiary care center. PATIENTS: Sequential sample of 54 critically ill neonates (gestational age 27 to 42 wks; postnatal age 1 to 28 days) with arterial catheters in place. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 99 comparisons between pulse oximetry and arterial saturation were obtained. Comparison of femoral or umbilical arterial blood with transcutaneous measurements on the lower limb (n = 66) demonstrated an excellent correlation (r2 = .96). The mean difference was +1.44% +/- 3.51 (SD) % (range -11% to +8%). Comparison of the transcutaneous values with the radial artery saturation from the corresponding upper limb (n = 33) revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.94 with a mean error of +0.66% +/- 3.34% (range -6% to +7%). The mean difference between noninvasive and invasive measurements was least with the test sensor on the hand, intermediate on the calf and arm, and greatest on the foot. The mean error and its standard deviation were slightly larger for arterial saturation values < 90% than for values > or = 90%. CONCLUSION: Accurate pulse oximetry saturation can be acquired from the hand, forearm, foot, and calf of critically ill newborns using this new sensor.

Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in healthy subjects during near-continuous oral nutrition and bed rest: a comparison with published data in artificially fed, critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In critically ill patients, fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis increases in proportion to carbohydrate administration during isoenergetic nutrition. In this study, we sought to determine whether this increase may be the consequence of continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest. We, therefore, measured fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis in a group of 12 healthy subjects during near-continuous oral feeding (hourly isoenergetic meals with a liquid formula containing 55% carbohydrate). In eight subjects, near-continuous enteral nutrition and bed rest were applied over a 10 h period. In the other four subjects, it was extended to 34 h. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was measured by infusing(13) C-labeled acetate and monitoring VLDL-(13)C palmitate enrichment with mass isotopomer distribution analysis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis was 3.2% (range 1.5-7.5%) in the eight subjects after 10 h of near continuous nutrition and 1.6% (range 1.3-2.0%) in the four subjects after 34 h of near-continuous nutrition and bed rest. This indicates that continuous nutrition and physical inactivity do not increase hepatic de novo lipogenesis. Fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis previously reported in critically ill patients under similar nutritional conditions (9.3%) (range 5.3-15.8%) was markedly higher than in healthy subjects (P&lt;0.001). These data from healthy subjects indicate that fractional hepatic de novo lipogenesis is increased in critically ill patients.

Diagnostic accuracy of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra in critically ill children with suspected infection.

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the diagnostic accuracy of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interleukin-8 (IL-8), and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) in identifying patients with sepsis among critically ill pediatric patients with suspected infection. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nested case-control study in a multidisciplinary neonatal and pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) PATIENTS: PICU patients during a 12-month period with suspected infection, and plasma available from the time of clinical suspicion (254 episodes, 190 patients). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Plasma levels of G-CSF, IL-8, and IL-1ra. Episodes classified on the basis of clinical and bacteriological findings into: culture-confirmed sepsis, probable sepsis, localized infection, viral infection, and no infection. Plasma levels were significantly higher in episodes of culture-confirmed sepsis than in episodes with ruled-out infection. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was higher for IL-8 and G-CSF than for IL-1ra. Combining IL-8 and G-CSF improved the diagnostic performance, particularly as to the detection of Gram-negative sepsis. Sensitivity was low (<50%) in detecting Staphylococcus epidermidis bacteremia or localized infections. CONCLUSIONS: In this heterogeneous population of critically ill children with suspected infection, a model combining plasma levels of IL-8 and G-CSF identified patients with sepsis. Negative results do not rule out S. epidermidis bacteremia or locally confined infectious processes. The model requires validation in an independent data-set.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Quantifying uncertainty: physicians' estimates of infection in critically ill neonates and children.

To determine the diagnostic accuracy of physicians' prior probability estimates of serious infection in critically ill neonates and children, we conducted a prospective cohort study in 2 intensive care units. Using available clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information, 27 physicians provided 2567 probability estimates for 347 patients (follow-up rate, 92%). The median probability estimate of infection increased from 0% (i.e., no antibiotic treatment or diagnostic work-up for sepsis), to 2% on the day preceding initiation of antibiotic therapy, to 20% at initiation of antibiotic treatment (P&lt;.001). At initiation of treatment, predictions discriminated well between episodes subsequently classified as proven infection and episodes ultimately judged unlikely to be infection (area under the curve, 0.88). Physicians also showed a good ability to predict blood culture-positive sepsis (area under the curve, 0.77). Treatment and testing thresholds were derived from the provided predictions and treatment rates. Physicians' prognoses regarding the presence of serious infection were remarkably precise. Studies investigating the value of new tests for diagnosis of sepsis should establish that they add incremental value to physicians' judgment.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.