Power systems reliability calculation based on fuzzy data mining

This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.

Dynamic power- and failure-aware cloud resources allocation for Sets of independent tasks

Cloud computing is increasingly being adopted in different scenarios, like social networking, business applications, scientific experiments, etc. Relying in virtualization technology, the construction of these computing environments targets improvements in the infrastructure, such as power-efficiency and fulfillment of users’ SLA specifications. The methodology usually applied is packing all the virtual machines on the proper physical servers. However, failure occurrences in these networked computing systems can induce substantial negative impact on system performance, deviating the system from ours initial objectives. In this work, we propose adapted algorithms to dynamically map virtual machines to physical hosts, in order to improve cloud infrastructure power-efficiency, with low impact on users’ required performance. Our decision making algorithms leverage proactive fault-tolerance techniques to deal with systems failures, allied with virtual machine technology to share nodes resources in an accurately and controlled manner. The results indicate that our algorithms perform better targeting power-efficiency and SLA fulfillment, in face of cloud infrastructure failures.

Reliability of nasal auscultation and their relation to middle ear condition – a clinical interest to pediatrics respiratory physiotherapy

Background: Acute respiratory infections are usual in children under three years old occurring in upper respiratory tract, having an impact on child and caregiver’s quality of life predisposing to otitis media or bronchiolitis. There are few valid and reliable measures to determine the child’s respiratory condition and to guide the physiotherapy intervention. Aim: To assess the intra and inter rater reliability of nasal auscultation, to analyze the relation between sounds’ classification and middle ear’s pressure and compliance as well as with the Clinical Severity Score. Methods: A cross-sectional observational study was composed by 125 nursery children aged up to three years old. Tympanometry, pulmonary and nasal auscultation and application of Clinical Severity Score were performed to each child. Nasal auscultation sounds’ were recorded and sent to 3 blinded experts, that classified, as “obstructed” and “unobstructed”, with a 48 hours interval, in order to analyze inter and intra rater reliability. Results: Nasal auscultation revealed a substantial inter and intra rater reliability (=0,749 and evaluator A - K= 0,691; evaluator B - K= 0,605 and evaluator C - K= 0,724, respectively). Both ears’ pressure was significantly lower in children with an "unobstructed" nasal sound when compared with an “obstructed” nasal sound (t=-3,599, p<0,001 in left ear; t=-2,258, p=0,026 in right ear). Compliance in both ears was significantly lower in children with an "obstructed" nasal sound when compared with “unobstructed” nasal sound (t=-2,728, p=0,007 in left ear; t=-3,830, p<0,001 in right ear). There was a statistically significant association between sounds’ classification and tympanograms types in both ear’s (=11,437, p=0,003 in left ear; =13,535, p=0,001 in right ear). There was a trend to children with an "unobstructed" nasal sound that had a lower clinical severity score when compared with “obstructed” children. Conclusion: It was observed a good intra and substantial inter reliability for nasal auscultation. Nasal auscultation sounds’ classification was related to middle ears’ pressure and compliance.

The hospital survey on patient safety culture in Portuguese hospitals: instrument validity and reliability

Purpose – Quantitative instruments to assess patient safety culture have been developed recently and a few review articles have been published. Measuring safety culture enables healthcare managers and staff to improve safety behaviours and outcomes for patients and staff. The study aims to determine the AHRQ Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSPSC) Portuguese version's validity and reliability. Design/methodology/approach – A missing-value analysis and item analysis was performed to identify problematic items. Reliability analysis, inter-item correlations and inter-scale correlations were done to check internal consistency, composite scores. Inter-correlations were examined to assess construct validity. A confirmatory factor analysis was performed to investigate the observed data's fit to the dimensional structure proposed in the AHRQ HSPSC Portuguese version. To analyse differences between hospitals concerning composites scores, an ANOVA analysis and multiple comparisons were done. Findings – Eight of 12 dimensions had Cronbach's alphas higher than 0.7. The instrument as a whole achieved a high Cronbach's alpha (0.91). Inter-correlations showed that there is no dimension with redundant items, however dimension 10 increased its internal consistency when one item is removed. Originality/value – This study is the first to evaluate an American patient safety culture survey using Portuguese data. The survey has satisfactory reliability and construct validity.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Reliability of a questionnaire on substance use among adolescent students, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze reliability of a self-applied questionnaire on substance use and misuse among adolescent students. METHODS: Two cross-sectional studies were carried out for the instrument test-retest. The sample comprised male and female students aged 1119 years from public and private schools (elementary, middle, and high school students) in the city of Salvador, Northeastern Brazil, in 2006. A total of 591 questionnaires were applied in the test and 467 in the retest. Descriptive statistics, the Kappa index, Cronbach's alpha and intraclass correlation were estimated. RESULTS: The prevalence of substance use/misuse was similar in both test and retest. Sociodemographic variables showed a "moderate" to "almost perfect" agreement for the Kappa index, and a "satisfactory" (>0.75) consistency for Cronbach's alpha and intraclass correlation. The age which psychoactive substances (tobacco, alcohol, and cannabis) were first used and chronological age were similar in both studies. Test-retest reliability was found to be a good indicator of students' age of initiation and their patterns of substance use. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaire reliability was found to be satisfactory in the population studied.

Comparison of allocation approaches in soybean biodiesel life cycle assessment

This work shows the influence of using different allocation approaches when modelling the inventory analysis in a soybean biodiesel life cycle assessment (LCA). Results obtained using mass, energy and economic based allocations are compared, focusing on the following aspects: normalised potential environmental impact (PEI) categories, total PEI and relative contributions to the total PEI from each life cycle stage and environmental impact category. Similar results are obtained either using economic and energy based allocations. However, different results are obtained when mass based allocation is used when compared with the other two. This study also illustrates that using different allocation approaches in biodiesel LCA may influence the final conclusions, especially in comparative assertions, emphasising the need to perform a sensitivity analysis in the LCA interpretation step.

Técnicas de rating em contexto de crise no setor bancário português

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Contabilidade e Finanças Orientador: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira

Distributed MPC for Thermal Comfort and Load Allocation with Energy Auction

This paper presents a distributed predictive control methodology for indoor thermal comfort that optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource using an integrated demand-side management approach that involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control objective for each subsystem (house or building) aims to minimize the energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature inside comfort limits. In a distributed coordinated multi-agent ecosystem, each house or building control agent achieves its objectives while sharing, among them, the available energy through the introduction of particular coupling constraints in their underlying optimization problem. Coordination is maintained by a daily green energy auction bring in a demand-side management approach. Also the implemented distributed MPC algorithm is described and validated with simulation studies.

Quantifying the channel quality for interference-aware wireless sensor networks

Reliability of communications is key to expand application domains for sensor networks. SinceWireless Sensor Networks (WSN) operate in the license-free Industrial Scientific and Medical (ISM) bands and hence share the spectrum with other wireless technologies, addressing interference is an important challenge. In order to minimize its effect, nodes can dynamically adapt radio resources provided information about current spectrum usage is available. We present a new channel quality metric, based on availability of the channel over time, which meaningfully quantifies spectrum usage. We discuss the optimum scanning time for capturing the channel condition while maintaining energy-efficiency. Using data collected from a number of Wi-Fi networks operating in a library building, we show that our metric has strong correlation with the Packet Reception Rate (PRR). This suggests that quantifying interference in the channel can help in adapting resources for better reliability. We present a discussion of the usage of our metric for various resource allocation and adaptation strategies.

An Explicit GTS allocation algorithm for IEEE 802.15.4

The IEEE 802.15.4 standard provides appealing features to simultaneously support real-time and non realtime traffic, but it is only capable of supporting real-time communications from at most seven devices. Additionally, it cannot guarantee delay bounds lower than the superframe duration. Motivated by this problem, in this paper we propose an Explicit Guaranteed time slot Sharing and Allocation scheme (EGSA) for beacon-enabled IEEE 802.15.4 networks. This scheme is capable of providing tighter delay bounds for real-time communications by splitting the Contention Free access Period (CFP) into smaller mini time slots and by means of a new guaranteed bandwidth allocation scheme for a set of devices with periodic messages. At the same the novel bandwidth allocation scheme can maximize the duration of the CFP for non real-time communications. Performance analysis results show that the EGSA scheme works efficiently and outperforms competitor schemes both in terms of guaranteed delay and bandwidth utilization.

Bandwidth allocation in hexagonal wireless sensor networks for real-time communications

We present an algorithm for bandwidth allocation for delay-sensitive traffic in multi-hop wireless sensor networks. Our solution considers both periodic as well as aperiodic real-time traffic in an unified manner. We also present a distributed MAC protocol that conforms to the bandwidth allocation and thus satisfies the latency requirements of realtime traffic. Additionally, the protocol provides best-effort service to non real-time traffic. We derive the utilization bounds of our MAC protocol.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

Improving the reliability of WiDom in a single broadcast domain

WiDom is a previously proposed prioritized medium access control protocol for wireless channels. We present a modification to this protocol in order to improve its reliability. This modification has similarities with cooperative relaying schemes, but, in our protocol, all nodes can relay a carrier wave. The preliminary evaluation shows that, under transmission errors, a significant reduction on the number of failed tournaments can be achieved.