Consumption Expenditures in Economic Impact Studies: An Application to University Students

This paper examines how appropriately to attribute economic impact to consumption expenditures. Consumption expenditures are often treated as either wholly endogenous or wholly exogenous, following a distinction from Input-Output analysis. For many applications, such as those focusing on the impacts of tourism or benefits systems, such binomial assumptions are not satisfactory. We argue that consumption is neither wholly endogenous nor wholly exogenous but that the degree of this distinction is rather an empirical matter. We set out a general model for the treatment of consumption expenditures and illustrate its application through the case of university students. We examine individual student groups and how the impacts of students at particular institutions. Furthermore we take into account the binding budget constraint of public expenditures (as is the case for devolved regions in the UK)and examine how this affects the impact attributed to students' consumption expenditures.

Health care utilization among immigrants and native-born populations in 11 European countries. Results from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe

Objective: This study examines health care utilization of immigrants relative to the native-born populations aged 50 years and older in eleven European countries. Methods. We analyzed data from the Survey of Health Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from 2004 for a sample of 27,444 individuals in 11 European countries. Negative Binomial regression was conducted to examine the difference in number of doctor visits, visits to General Practitioners (GPs), and hospital stays between immigrants and the native-born individuals. Results: We find evidence those immigrants above age 50 use health services on average more than the native-born populations with the same characteristics. Our models show immigrants have between 6% and 27% more expected visits to the doctor, GP or hospital stays when compared to native-born populations in a number of European countries. Discussion: Elderly immigrant populations might be using health services more intensively due to cultural reasons.

Canakinumab Reduces The Risk Of Acute Gouty Arthritis Flares During Initiation Of Allopurinol Therapy: Results Of A Double-blind, Randomised Study

RATIONALE: This study assessed the efficacy and safety of canakinumab, a fully human anti-interleukin-1beta monoclonal antibody, for prophylaxis against acute gouty arthritis flares in patients initiating uratelowering therapy.METHODS: In this double-blind, double-dummy, dose-ranging study, 432 patients with gouty arthritis initiating allopurinol therapy were randomised 1:1:1:1:1:1:2 to receive: a single dose of canakinumab, 25, 50, 100, 200, or 300 mg subcutaneously (sc); four 4-weekly doses of canakinumab (50150125125 mg sc); or daily colchicine 0.5 mg orally for 16 weeks. Patients recorded details of flares in diaries. The study aimed to determine the canakinumab dose having equivalent efficacy to colchicine 0.5 mg at 16 weeks.RESULTS: A dose-response for canakinumab was not apparent with any of the four pre-defined dose-responsemodels. The estimated canakinumab dose with equivalent efficacy to colchicinewas belowthe range of doses tested.At 16 weeks, therewas a 62-72% reduction in themean number of flares per patient for canakinumab doses >50 mg vs colchicine based on a negative binomial model (rate ratio: 0.28-0.38, p50.0083), and the percentage of patients experiencing >1 flarewas significantly lower for all canakinumab doses (15- 27%) vs colchicine (44%, p<0.05). Therewas a 64-72%reduction in the risk of experiencing >1 flare for canakinumab doses >50 mg vs colchicine at 16 weeks (hazard ratio: 0.28-0.36, p50.05). The incidence of adverse events was similar across treatment groups.CONCLUSIONS: Single canakinumab doses >50 mg or four 4-weekly doses provided superior prophylaxis against flares compared with daily colchicine 0.5 mg.

A model for intra-familial distribution of an infectious disease (Chagas' disease)

A probabilistic model for intra-familial distribution of infectous disease is proposed and applied to the prevalence of positive serology for Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Northeastern Brazilian sample. This double with one tail excess model fits satisfactorily to the data and its interpretation says that around 51% of these 982 families are free of infection risk; among those that are at risk, 3% have a high risk (0.66), probably due to high domestic infestation of the vector bug; while 97% show a small risk (0.11), probably due to accidental, non-domestic transmission.

Extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model

It has been argued that by truncating the sample space of the negative binomial and of the inverse Gaussian-Poisson mixture models at zero, one is allowed to extend the parameter space of the model. Here that is proved to be the case for the more general three parameter Tweedie-Poisson mixture model. It is also proved that the distributions in the extended part of the parameter space are not the zero truncation of mixed poisson distributions and that, other than for the negative binomial, they are not mixtures of zero truncated Poisson distributions either. By extending the parameter space one can improve the fit when the frequency of one is larger and the right tail is heavier than is allowed by the unextended model. Considering the extended model also allows one to use the basic maximum likelihood based inference tools when parameter estimates fall in the extended part of the parameter space, and hence when the m.l.e. does not exist under the unextended model. This extended truncated Tweedie-Poisson model is proved to be useful in the analysis of words and species frequency count data.

Los conflictos cognitivos y la construcción del sí mismo y de los otros en los trastornos de la conducta alimentaria

La baja autoestima y algunas formas de pensamiento han sido frecuentemente asociadas a los trastornos alimentarios. La Técnica de Rejilla permite evaluar la apreciación del propio valor en base a la comparación entre el Yo Actual y el Yo Ideal. Esta evaluación toma en cuenta los atributos que son importantes para la persona, en contraste con las medidas tradicionales de autoestima, que derivan de constructos teóricos reflejados en los ítems de cuestionarios. El estudio de la construcción del sí mismo en la técnica de rejilla se completa con otras dos medidas: la identificación o aislamiento social autopercibido, y la adecuación percibida en los otros. Estas medidas se derivan de la comparación del Yo Actual y el Yo Ideal con los otros. Además, nuestro grupo de investigación ha promovido una línea de investigación que enfatiza la conceptualización de los síntomas psicológicos en términos de dilemas personales, basada en el estudio de los conflictos cognitivos evaluados mediante la técnica de rejilla. El objetivo nuestra investigación es explorar la relación entre los patrones de construcción del sí mismo y de los otros (incluyendo los conflictos cognitivos) y las actitudes alimentarias disfuncionales en pacientes afectados de trastornos de la conducta alimentaria y en muestras no clínica. Se pretende investigar si las variables cognitivas resultan útiles en la predicción de actitudes relacionadas con problemas alimentarios, con la gravedad del trastorno y con los resultados del tratamiento.Para ello, se han realizado cuatro estudios, cuyos resultados han sido ya difundidos en congresos o en formato de artículo en revistas científicas.

Eliminació autotròfica de nitrogen en una pila biològica (microbial fuel cells )

L’aigua i l’energia formen un binomi indissociable. En relació al cicle de l’aigua, des de fa varies dècades s’han desenvolupat diferents formes per recuperar part de l’energia relacionada amb l’aigua, per exemple a partir de centrals hidroelèctriques. No obstant, l’ús d’aquesta aigua també porta associat un gran consum energètic, relacionat sobretot amb el transport, la distribució, la depuració, etc... La depuració d’aigües residuals porta associada una elevada demanda energètica (Obis et al.,2009). En termes energètics, tot i que la despesa elèctrica d’una EDAR varia en funció de diferents paràmetres com la configuració i la capacitat de la planta, la càrrega a tractar, etc... es podria considerar que el rati mig seria d’ aproximadament 0.5 KWh•m-3.Els principals costos d’explotació estan relacionats tant amb la gestió de fangs (28%) com amb el consum elèctric (25%) (50% tractament biològic). Tot i que moltes investigacions relacionades amb el tractament d’aigua residual estan encaminades en disminuir els costos d’operació, des de fa poques dècades s’està investigant la viabilitat de que l’aigua residual fins i tot sigui una font d’energia, canviant la perspectiva, i començant a veure l’aigua residual no com a una problemàtica sinó com a un recurs. Concretament s’estima que l’aigua domèstica conté 9.3 vegades més energia que la necessària per el seu tractament mitjançant processos aerobis (Shizas et al., 2004). Un dels processos més desenvolupats relacionats amb el tractament d’aigües residuals i la producció energètica és la digestió anaeròbia. No obstant, aquesta tecnologia permet el tractament d’altes càrregues de matèria orgànica generant un efluent ric en nitrogen que s’haurà de tractar amb altres tecnologies. Per altre banda, recentment s’està investigant una nova tecnologia relacionada amb el tractament d’aigües residuals i la producció energètica: les piles biològiques (microbial fuel cells, MFC). Aquesta tecnologia permet obtenir directament energia elèctrica a partir de la degradació de substrats biodegradables (Rabaey et al., 2005). Les piles biològiques, més conegudes com a Microbial Fuel Cells (acrònim en anglès, MFC), són una emergent tecnologia que està centrant moltes mirades en el camp de l’ investigació, i que es basa en la producció d’energia elèctrica a partir de substrats biodegradables presents en l’aigua residual (Logan., 2008). Els fonaments de les piles biològiques és molt semblant al funcionament d’una pila Daniell, en la qual es separa en dos compartiments la reacció d’oxidació (compartiment anòdic) i la de reducció (compartiment catòdic) amb l’objectiu de generar un determinat corrent elèctric. En aquest estudi, bàsicament es mostra la posada en marxa d'una pila biològica per a l'eliminació de matèria orgànica i nitrogen de les aigües residuals.

European collaborative study of early-onset bipolar disorder: Evidence for genetic heterogeneity on 2q14 according to age at onset.

Bipolar disorder has a genetic component, but the mode of inheritance remains unclear. A previous genome scan conducted in 70 European families led to detect eight regions linked to bipolar disease. Here, we present an investigation of whether the phenotypic heterogeneity of the disorder corresponds to genetic heterogeneity in these regions using additional markers and an extended sample of families. The MLS statistic was used for linkage analyses. The predivided sample test and the maximum likelihood binomial methods were used to test genetic homogeneity between early-onset bipolar type I (cut-off of 22 years) and other types of the disorder (later onset of bipolar type I and early-onset bipolar type II), using a total of 138 independent bipolar-affected sib-pairs. Analysis of the extended sample of families supports linkage in four regions (2q14, 3p14, 16p23, and 20p12) of the eight regions of linkage suggested by our previous genome scan. Heterogeneity testing revealed genetic heterogeneity between early and late-onset bipolar type I in the 2q14 region (P = 0.0001). Only the early form of the bipolar disorder but not the late form appeared to be linked to this region. This region may therefore include a genetic factor either specifically involved in the early-onset bipolar type I or only influencing the age at onset (AAO). Our findings illustrate that stratification according to AAO may be valuable for the identification of genetic vulnerability polymorphisms.

Body dissatisfaction on top of depressive mood among adolescents with severe dysmenorrhea.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to determine whether adolescent girls with severe dysmenorrhea (SD) have different psychological characteristics from their peers. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey (SMASH 02). SETTINGS: Nationally representative sample of adolescents attending post-mandatory education. PARTICIPANTS: N = 7548, of whom 3340 were females, aged 16-20 years. INTERVENTION: Self-administered, anonymous survey consisted of 565 items on 4 main topics: sociodemographic determinants of health, health status, health behaviors, and health care use. OUTCOMES: Body image variables, mental health, and associated variables like sexual abuse and health perceptions. Bivariate analysis and binomial logistic regression controlling for explanatory variables were performed. RESULTS: 12.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.0-14) declared SD. Compared to their peers, subjects with SD were more likely to report depressive symptoms (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.38-2.15), have a higher gynecological age (AOR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.05-1.20), and attend vocational school (AOR: 1.33; 95% CI: 1.00-1.76). Moreover, the proportion of those reporting dissatisfaction with their body appearance was higher (AOR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.02-2.22). CONCLUSION: Patients with SD not only show a different profile from their peers in terms of their mental health academic track and gynecological age, but they are also more dissatisfied with their body appearance. Clinicians should pay particular attention to patients with SD and offer them a global evaluation, bearing in mind what factors can be associated with SD.

Estructura de datos avanzadas : clases disjuntas, montículos, árboles de búsqueda

En aquest treball s'amplia la implementació en Java de les estructures de dades iniciada per Esteve Mariné, utilitzant el seu disseny bàsic. Concretament, s'ha fet la programació de les estructures de a) classes disjuntes, utilitzant els algorismes de llistes encadenades i amb estructura d'arbre, b) monticles, amb els algorismes binari, binomial i de Fibonacci, i c) arbres de recerca basats en l'algorisme d'arbre binari vermell-negre, el qual complementa els dos ja existents amb algorismes d'encadenaments i AVL. Per a examinar l'evolució de les estructures, s'ha preparat un visualitzador gràfic interactiu amb l'usuari que permet fer les operacions bàsiques de l'estructura. Amb aquest entorn és possible desar les estructures, tornar a reproduir-les i desfer i tornar a repetir les operacions fetes sobre l'estructura. Finalment, aporta una metodologia, amb visualització mitjançant gràfics, de l'avaluació comparativa dels algorismes implementats, que permet modificar els paràmetres d'avaluació com ara nombre d'elements que s'han de tractar, algorismes que s'han de comparar i nombre de repeticions. Les dades obtingudes es poden exportar per a analitzar-les posteriorment.

Ageing Prisoners' Disease Burden: Is Being Old a Better Predictor than Time Served in Prison?

Background: The number of older prisoners entering and ageing in prison has increased in the last few decades. Ageing prisoners pose unique challenges to the prison administration as they have differentiated social, custodial and healthcare needs than prisoners who are younger and relatively healthier. Objective: The goal of this study was to explore and compare the somatic disease burden of old and young prisoners, and to examine whether it can be explained by age group and/or time served in prison. Methods: Access to prisoner medical records was granted to extract disease and demographic information of older (>50 years) and younger (≤49 years) prisoners in different Swiss prisons. Predictor variables included the age group and the time spent in prison. The dependent variable was the total number of somatic diseases as reported in the medical records. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics and a negative binomial model. Results: Data of 380 male prisoners from 13 different prisons in Switzerland reveal that the mean ages of older and younger prisoners were 58.78 and 34.26 years, respectively. On average, older prisoners have lived in prison for 5.17 years and younger prisoners for 2.49 years. The average total number of somatic diseases reported by older prisoners was 2.26 times higher than that of prisoners below 50 years of age (95% CI 1.77-2.87, p < 0.001). Conclusion: This study is the first of its kind to capture national disease data of prisoners with a goal of comparing the disease burden of older and younger prisoners. Study findings indicate that older inmates suffer from more somatic diseases and that the number of diseases increases with age group. Results clearly illustrate the poorer health conditions of those who are older, their higher healthcare burden, and raises questions related to the provision of healthcare for inmates growing old in prison. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Predicting spatial patterns of plant species richness: a comparison of direct macroecological and species stacking approaches

Aim This study compares the direct, macroecological approach (MEM) for modelling species richness (SR) with the more recent approach of stacking predictions from individual species distributions (S-SDM). We implemented both approaches on the same dataset and discuss their respective theoretical assumptions, strengths and drawbacks. We also tested how both approaches performed in reproducing observed patterns of SR along an elevational gradient.Location Two study areas in the Alps of Switzerland.Methods We implemented MEM by relating the species counts to environmental predictors with statistical models, assuming a Poisson distribution. S-SDM was implemented by modelling each species distribution individually and then stacking the obtained prediction maps in three different ways - summing binary predictions, summing random draws of binomial trials and summing predicted probabilities - to obtain a final species count.Results The direct MEM approach yields nearly unbiased predictions centred around the observed mean values, but with a lower correlation between predictions and observations, than that achieved by the S-SDM approaches. This method also cannot provide any information on species identity and, thus, community composition. It does, however, accurately reproduce the hump-shaped pattern of SR observed along the elevational gradient. The S-SDM approach summing binary maps can predict individual species and thus communities, but tends to overpredict SR. The two other S-SDM approaches the summed binomial trials based on predicted probabilities and summed predicted probabilities - do not overpredict richness, but they predict many competing end points of assembly or they lose the individual species predictions, respectively. Furthermore, all S-SDM approaches fail to appropriately reproduce the observed hump-shaped patterns of SR along the elevational gradient.Main conclusions Macroecological approach and S-SDM have complementary strengths. We suggest that both could be used in combination to obtain better SR predictions by following the suggestion of constraining S-SDM by MEM predictions.

Leprosy reactions: the effect of gender and household contacts

Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.

Institucionalització i salut mental

La complexitat de l’atenció de la salut mental i les toxicomanies, en joves institucionalitzats en centres de justícia juvenil, condicionada tant pels propis dèficits de salut, com per les condicions ambientals de l’internament. L’objectiu de la recerca és analitzar la clínica desadaptativa dels joves interns i la seva associació a la presència d’antecedents de consum de tòxics. El disseny de la recerca és un estudi longitudinal de les urgències mèdiques generades en el Centre Educatiu L’Alzina (Barcelona), des de l’1 de gener de 2001 fins el 31 de desembre del mateix any. La metodologia utilitza l’ajust de models multivariants mitjançant Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) amb error binomial negativa, es calcula el risc de produir-se una demanda per agitació o autolesió, i la seva associació amb la presència d’antecedents de consum de tòxics. Respecte als resultats més destacats: el 59,4% del total de demandes urgents varen ser per episodis d’agitació o autolesió, concentrant-se aquests en el 33% dels interns. Les prevalences de consum de tòxics variaven des d’un 13,2% respecte dels al•lucinògens fins un 71,7% del cannabis, amb un 36,8% de politoxicòmans i un 5,7% d’usuaris de drogues per via parenteral. La població nacional presentà una major prevalença d’hàbits tòxics. Com a principals conclusions de l’estudi, es confirma la hipòtesi general d’una major associació entre antecedents de consum de tòxics i presentació d’episodis de malestar psíquic agut, per bé que limitada al mòdul d’ingrés (inicial). En la resta de grups influirien altres factors, com podria ser la pressió ambiental. Pressió que, almenys en el mòdul intensiu, tot sembla indicar que seria determinant. Els resultats suggereixen doncs, la conveniència de revisar tant les estratègies d’intervenció i abordatge de les toxicomanies, com el disseny ambiental de la institució. S’apunta la necessitat d’investigacions futures amb la incorporació de tècniques qualitatives d’anàlisi. ...