Rapid genome wide mapping of phosphine resistance loci by a simple regional averaging analysis in the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum

Background Next-generation sequencing technology is an important tool for the rapid, genome-wide identification of genetic variations. However, it is difficult to resolve the ‘signal’ of variations of interest and the ‘noise’ of stochastic sequencing and bioinformatic errors in the large datasets that are generated. We report a simple approach to identify regional linkage to a trait that requires only two pools of DNA to be sequenced from progeny of a defined genetic cross (i.e. bulk segregant analysis) at low coverage (<10×) and without parentage assignment of individual SNPs. The analysis relies on regional averaging of pooled SNP frequencies to rapidly scan polymorphisms across the genome for differential regional homozygosity, which is then displayed graphically. Results Progeny from defined genetic crosses of Tribolium castaneum (F4 and F19) segregating for the phosphine resistance trait were exposed to phosphine to select for the resistance trait while the remainders were left unexposed. Next generation sequencing was then carried out on the genomic DNA from each pool of selected and unselected insects from each generation. The reads were mapped against the annotated T. castaneum genome from NCBI (v3.0) and analysed for SNP variations. Since it is difficult to accurately call individual SNP frequencies when the depth of sequence coverage is low, variant frequencies were averaged across larger regions. Results from regional SNP frequency averaging identified two loci, tc_rph1 on chromosome 8 and tc_rph2 on chromosome 9, which together are responsible for high level resistance. Identification of the two loci was possible with only 5-7× average coverage of the genome per dataset. These loci were subsequently confirmed by direct SNP marker analysis and fine-scale mapping. Individually, homozygosity of tc_rph1 or tc_rph2 results in only weak resistance to phosphine (estimated at up to 1.5-2.5× and 3-5× respectively), whereas in combination they interact synergistically to provide a high-level resistance >200×. The tc_rph2 resistance allele resulted in a significant fitness cost relative to the wild type allele in unselected beetles over eighteen generations. Conclusion We have validated the technique of linkage mapping by low-coverage sequencing of progeny from a simple genetic cross. The approach relied on regional averaging of SNP frequencies and was used to successfully identify candidate gene loci for phosphine resistance in T. castaneum. This is a relatively simple and rapid approach to identifying genomic regions associated with traits in defined genetic crosses that does not require any specialised statistical analysis.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Spatial variations of effective elastic thickness over the Ninetyeast Ridge and implications for its structure and tectonic evolution

We present new data on the strength of oceanic lithosphere along the Ninetyeast Ridge (NER) from two independent methods: spectral analysis (Bouguer coherence) using the fan wavelet transform technique, and spatial analysis (flexure inversion) with the convolution method. The two methods provide effective elastic thickness (T-e) patterns that broadly complement each other, and correlate well with known surface structures and regional-scale features. Furthermore, our study presents a new high resolution database on the Moho configuration, which obeys flexural isostasy, and exhibit regional correlations with the T-e variations. A continuous ridge structure with a much lower T-e value than that of normal oceanic lithosphere provides strong support for the hotspot theory. The derived T-e values vary over the northern (higher T-e similar to 10-20 km), central (anomalously low T-e similar to 0-5 km), and southern (low T-e similar to 5 km) segments of the NER. The lack of correlation of the T-e value with the progressive aging of the lithosphere implies differences in thermo-mechanical setting of the crust and underlying mantle in different parts of the NER, again indicating diversity in their evolution. The anomalously low T-e and deeper Moho (similar to 22 km) estimates of the central NER (between 0.5 degrees N and 17 degrees S) are attributed to the interaction of a hotspot with the Wharton spreading ridge that caused significant thermal rejuvenation and hence weakening of the lithosphere. The higher mechanical strength values in the northern NER (north of 0.5 degrees N) may support the idea of off-ridge emplacement and a relatively large plate motion at the time of volcanism. The low T-e and deeper Moho (similar to 22 km) estimates in the southern part (south of 17 degrees S) suggest that the lithosphere was weak and therefore younger at the time of volcanism, and this supports the idea that the southern NER was emplaced on the edge of the Indian plate. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface Freshwater Storage Variations in the Orinoco Floodplains Using Multi-Satellite Observations

Variations in surface water extent and storage are poorly characterized from regional to global scales. In this study, a multi-satellite approach is proposed to estimate the water stored in the floodplains of the Orinoco Basin at a monthly time-scale using remotely-sensed observations of surface water from the Global Inundation Extent Multi-Satellite (GIEMS) and stages from Envisat radar altimetry. Surface water storage variations over 2003-2007 exhibit large interannual variability and a strong seasonal signal, peaking during summer, and associated with the flood pulse. The volume of surface water storage in the Orinoco Basin was highly correlated with the river discharge at Ciudad Bolivar (R = 0.95), the closest station to the mouth where discharge was estimated, although discharge lagged one month behind storage. The correlation remained high (R = 0.73) after removing seasonal effects. Mean annual variations in surface water volume represented similar to 170 km(3), contributing to similar to 45% of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived total water storage variations and representing similar to 13% of the total volume of water that flowed out of the Orinoco Basin to the Atlantic Ocean.

Attenuation tomography. Modelling regional love waves: Imperial Valley to Pasadena

Abstract to Part I

The inverse problem of seismic wave attenuation is solved by an iterative back-projection method. The seismic wave quality factor, Q, can be estimated approximately by inverting the S-to-P amplitude ratios. Effects of various uncertain ties in the method are tested and the attenuation tomography is shown to be useful in solving for the spatial variations in attenuation structure and in estimating the effective seismic quality factor of attenuating anomalies.

Back-projection attenuation tomography is applied to two cases in southern California: Imperial Valley and the Coso-Indian Wells region. In the Coso-Indian Wells region, a highly attenuating body (S-wave quality factor (Q_β ≈ 30) coincides with a slow P-wave anomaly mapped by Walck and Clayton (1987). This coincidence suggests the presence of a magmatic or hydrothermal body 3 to 5 km deep in the Indian Wells region. In the Imperial Valley, slow P-wave travel-time anomalies and highly attenuating S-wave anomalies were found in the Brawley seismic zone at a depth of 8 to 12 km. The effective S-wave quality factor is very low (Q_β ≈ 20) and the P-wave velocity is 10% slower than the surrounding areas. These results suggest either magmatic or hydrothermal intrusions, or fractures at depth, possibly related to active shear in the Brawley seismic zone.

No-block inversion is a generalized tomographic method utilizing the continuous form of an inverse problem. The inverse problem of attenuation can be posed in a continuous form , and the no-block inversion technique is applied to the same data set used in the back-projection tomography. A relatively small data set with little redundancy enables us to apply both techniques to a similar degree of resolution. The results obtained by the two methods are very similar. By applying the two methods to the same data set, formal errors and resolution can be directly computed for the final model, and the objectivity of the final result can be enhanced.

Both methods of attenuation tomography are applied to a data set of local earthquakes in Kilauea, Hawaii, to solve for the attenuation structure under Kilauea and the East Rift Zone. The shallow Kilauea magma chamber, East Rift Zone and the Mauna Loa magma chamber are delineated as attenuating anomalies. Detailed inversion reveals shallow secondary magma reservoirs at Mauna Ulu and Puu Oo, the present sites of volcanic eruptions. The Hilina Fault zone is highly attenuating, dominating the attenuating anomalies at shallow depths. The magma conduit system along the summit and the East Rift Zone of Kilauea shows up as a continuous supply channel extending down to a depth of approximately 6 km. The Southwest Rift Zone, on the other hand, is not delineated by attenuating anomalies, except at a depth of 8-12 km, where an attenuating anomaly is imaged west of Puu Kou. The Ylauna Loa chamber is seated at a deeper level (about 6-10 km) than the Kilauea magma chamber. Resolution in the Mauna Loa area is not as good as in the Kilauea area, and there is a trade-off between the depth extent of the magma chamber imaged under Mauna Loa and the error that is due to poor ray coverage. Kilauea magma chamber, on the other hand, is well resolved, according to a resolution test done at the location of the magma chamber.

Abstract to Part II

Long period seismograms recorded at Pasadena of earthquakes occurring along a profile to Imperial Valley are studied in terms of source phenomena (e.g., source mechanisms and depths) versus path effects. Some of the events have known source parameters, determined by teleseismic or near-field studies, and are used as master events in a forward modeling exercise to derive the Green's functions (SH displacements at Pasadena that are due to a pure strike-slip or dip-slip mechanism) that describe the propagation effects along the profile. Both timing and waveforms of records are matched by synthetics calculated from 2-dimensional velocity models. The best 2-dimensional section begins at Imperial Valley with a thin crust containing the basin structure and thickens towards Pasadena. The detailed nature of the transition zone at the base of the crust controls the early arriving shorter periods (strong motions), while the edge of the basin controls the scattered longer period surface waves. From the waveform characteristics alone, shallow events in the basin are easily distinguished from deep events, and the amount of strike-slip versus dip-slip motion is also easily determined. Those events rupturing the sediments, such as the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake, can be recognized easily by a late-arriving scattered Love wave that has been delayed by the very slow path across the shallow valley structure.

The distribution and ages of regional lithologies in the lunar maria

A research program was designed (1) to map regional lithological units of the lunar surface based on measurements of spatial variations in spectral reflectance, and, (2) to establish the sequence of the formation of such lithological units from measurements of the accumulated affects of impacting bodies.

Spectral reflectance data were obtained by scanning luminance variations over the lunar surface at three wavelengths (0.4µ, 0.52µ, and 0.7µ). These luminance measurements were reduced to normalized spectral reflectance values relative to a standard area in More Serenitotis. The spectral type of each lunar area was identified from the shape of its reflectance spectrum. From these data lithological units or regions of constant color were identified. The maria fall into two major spectral classes: circular moria like More Serenitotis contain S-type or red material and thin, irregular, expansive maria like Mare Tranquillitatis contain T-type or blue material. Four distinct subtypes of S-type reflectances and two of T-type reflectances exist. As these six subtypes occur in a number of lunar regions, it is concluded that they represent specific types of material rather than some homologous set of a few end members.

The relative ages or sequence of formation of these more units were established from measurements of the accumulated impacts which have occurred since more formation. A model was developed which relates the integrated flux of particles which hove impacted a surface to the distribution of craters as functions of size and shape. Erosion of craters is caused chiefly by small bodies which produce negligible individual changes in crater shape. Hence the shape of a crater can be used to estimate the total number of small impacts that have occurred since the crater was formed. Relative ages of a surface can then be obtained from measurements of the slopes of the walls of the oldest craters formed on the surface. The results show that different maria and regions within them were emplaced at different times. An approximate absolute time scale was derived from Apollo 11 crystallization ages under an assumption of a constant rote of impacting for the last 4 x 10^9 yrs. Assuming, constant flux, the period of mare formation lasted from over 4 x 10^9 yrs to about 1.5 x 10^9 yrs ago.

A synthesis of the results of relative age measurements and of spectral reflectance mapping shows that (1) the formation of the lunar maria occurred in three stages; material of only one spectral type was deposited in each stage, (2) two distinct kinds of maria exist, each type distinguished by morphology, structure, gravity anomalies, time of formation, and spectral reflectance type, and (3) individual maria have complicated histories; they contain a variety of lithic units emplaced at different times.

Stationary Eddies and Zonal Variations of the Global Hydrological Cycle in a Changing Climate

This thesis advances our physical understanding of the sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to global warming. Specifically, it focuses on changes in the longitudinal (zonal) variation of precipitation minus evaporation (P - E), which is predominantly controlled by planetary-scale stationary eddies. By studying idealized general circulation model (GCM) experiments with zonally varying boundary conditions, this thesis examines the mechanisms controlling the strength of stationary-eddy circulations and their role in the hydrological cycle. The overarching goal of this research is to understand the cause of changes in regional P - E with global warming. An understanding of such changes can be useful for impact studies focusing on water availability, ecosystem management, and flood risk.

Based on a moisture-budget analysis of ERA-Interim data, we establish an approximation for zonally anomalous P - E in terms of surface moisture content and stationary-eddy vertical motion in the lower troposphere. Part of the success of this approximation comes from our finding that transient-eddy moisture fluxes partially cancel the effect of stationary-eddy moisture advection, allowing divergent circulations to dominate the moisture budget. The lower-tropospheric vertical motion is related to horizontal motion in stationary eddies by Sverdrup and Ekman balance. These moisture- and vorticity-budget balances also hold in idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations across a range of climates.

By examining climate changes in the idealized and comprehensive GCM simulations, we are able to show the utility of the vertical motion P - E approximation for splitting changes in zonally anomalous P - E into thermodynamic and dynamic components. Shifts in divergent stationary-eddy circulations dominate changes in zonally anomalous P - E. This limits the local utility of the "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” idea, where existing P - E patterns are amplified with warming by the increase in atmospheric moisture content, with atmospheric circulations held fixed. The increase in atmospheric moisture content manifests instead in an increase in the amplitude of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle as measured by the zonal variance of P - E. However, dynamic changes, particularly the slowdown of divergent stationary-eddy circulations, limit the strengthening of the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle. In certain idealized cases, dynamic changes are even strong enough to reverse the tendency towards "wet gets wetter, dry gets drier” with warming.

Motivated by the importance of stationary-eddy vertical velocities in the moisture budget analysis, we examine controls on the amplitude of stationary eddies across a wide range of climates in an idealized GCM with simple topographic and ocean-heating zonal asymmetries. An analysis of the thermodynamic equation in the vicinity of topographic forcing reveals the importance of on-slope surface winds, the midlatitude isentropic slope, and latent heating in setting the amplitude of stationary waves. The response of stationary eddies to climate change is determined primarily by the strength of zonal surface winds hitting the mountain. The sensitivity of stationary-eddies to this surface forcing increases with climate change as the slope of midlatitude isentropes decreases. However, latent heating also plays an important role in damping the stationary-eddy response, and this damping becomes stronger with warming as the atmospheric moisture content increases. We find that the response of tropical overturning circulations forced by ocean heat-flux convergence is described by changes in the vertical structure of moist static energy and deep convection. This is used to derive simple scalings for the Walker circulation strength that capture the monotonic decrease with warming found in our idealized simulations.

Through the work of this thesis, the advances made in understanding the amplitude of stationary-waves in a changing climate can be directly applied to better understand and predict changes in the zonally anomalous hydrological cycle.

Variations in northeast Asian environments over the last 350,000 years reconstructed from pollen records from the northwest Pacific Ocean

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Recent analyses of terrestrial (pollen) and marine microfossils (foraminifera and radiolaria) in cores V28-204 and RC14-99 from the northwest Pacific Ocean extend the continuous, chronostratigraphically-controlled records of the regional vegetation of the Pacific coast of Japan and offshore marine environments through three full glacial cycles. The high-resolution pollen time series show systematic relationships between fluctuations in Japanese vegetation and global ice volume over the last 350 kyr. ... Comparison with solar insolation at 30°N and with an index of orbital parameters suggests that variation in northeast Asian summer monsoon intensity is related to orbital forcing.

Midlatitude daytime D region ionosphere variations measured from radio atmospherics

We measured the midlatitude daytime ionospheric D region electron density profile height variations in July and August 2005 near Duke University by using radio atmospherics (or sferics for short), which are the high-power, broadband very low frequency (VLF) signals launched by lightning discharges. As expected, the measured daytime D region electron density profile heights showed temporal variations quantitatively correlated with solar zenith angle changes. In the midlatitude geographical regions near Duke University, the observed quiet time heights decreased from ∼80 km near sunrise to ∼71 km near noon when the solar zenith angle was minimum. The measured height quantitative dependence on the solar zenith angle was slightly different from the low-latitude measurement given in a previous work. We also observed unexpected spatial variations not linked to the solar zenith angle on some days, with 15% of days exhibiting regional differences larger than 0.5 km. In these 2 months, 14 days had sudden height drops caused by solar flare X-rays, with a minimum height of 63.4 km observed. The induced height change during a solar flare event was approximately proportional to the logarithm of the X-ray flux. In the long waveband (wavelength, 1-8 Å), an increase in flux by a factor of 10 resulted in 6.3 km decrease of the height at the flux peak time, nearly a perfect agreement with the previous measurement. During the rising and decaying phases of the solar flare, the height changes correlated more consistently with the short, rather than the long, wavelength X-ray flux changes. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

A regional chemostratigraphically-defined correlation framework for the late Triassic TAG-I Formation in Blocks 402 and 405a, Algeria

The Triassic Argilo-Gréseux Inférieur Formation (TAG-I) is one of the principal hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Berkine Basin of Algeria. Sedimentological studies have shown that it exhibits marked spatial and temporal facies variations on both a local field scale and a regional basinal scale. This variability, combined with a lack of diagnostic flora and fauna, makes regional correlation within the unit difficult. In turn, the lack of a consistent regional stratigraphic framework hampers the comparison of the various correlation schemes devised by operators in the basin. Contrasting the TAG-I in Blocks 402 and 405a exemplifies the problems encountered when attempting regionally to define a correlation framework for the interval. Between these two blocks, a distance of approximately 200 km, there are marked changes in the style of deposition from sand-dominated, proximal fluvial systems in the SW (Block 405a, MLN, MLC, KMD and MLNW fields) to a more distal, more clay-prone system in the NE (Block 402, ROD/BRSE/BSFN, SFNE and BSF fields). A chemostratigraphic study of the TAG-I in these two blocks has allowed a four-fold correlation framework to be defined, where each chemostratigraphic package has distinctive geochemical features. Chemostratigraphic Package 10, the oldest unit, lies above the Hercynian Unconformity, but beneath a geochemically identifiable hiatal surface. Chemostratigraphic Package 20 lies above the hiatal surface but is separated from the overlying packages by a mineralogical change identifiable in both claystone and sandstone geochemistry. Chemostratigraphic Packages 30 and 40 are chemically somewhat similar, but are separated by a regional event interpreted as a period of dolocrete and lacustrine development. By combining the geochemical differentiation of the units and recognition of their stratal boundaries, it is possible to define a correlation for the TAG-I between Blocks 402 and 405a. The proposed correlation between the two blocks suggests that the northern parts of Block 405a may have been occupied by a spur or subsidiary channel from the main SW–NE-trending fluvial system, resulting in one of the chemically defined packages being demonstrably absent in the MLNW, MLN, KMD and MLC fields when compared with the other areas of the study.

Algal epiphytes of Zostera marina: Variation in assemblage structure from individual leaves to regional scale

Data from a hierarchical study of four Zostera marina beds in Wales were used to identify the spatial scales of variation in epiphyte assemblages. There were significant within and among bed differences in assemblage structure. The differences in assemblage structure with spatial scale generally persisted when species identifications were aggregated into functional groups. There was also significant within and among bed variability in Zostera density and average length. Local variations in Zostera canopy variables at the quadrat scale (total leaf length, average leaf length and leaf density per quadrat) were not related to epiphyte species richness nor to the structure of the assemblage. In contrast, individual leaf length was significantly related to species richness in two of the beds and the structure of epiphyte assemblages was always related to individual leaf lengths. The absence of links between quadrat scale measurements of canopy variables and assemblage structure may reflect the high turnover of individual Zostera leaves. Experimental work is required to discriminate further between the potential causes of epiphyte assemblage variation within and between beds. No bed represented a refuge where a rare species was abundant. If a species was uncommon at the bed scale, it was also uncommon in beds where it occurred. The heterogeneous assemblages found in this study suggest that a precautionary approach to conservation is advisable.

Mid to late Holocene hydrological change in continental eastern Canada: assessing regional trends from ombrotrophic peat records.

ABSTRACT High resolution records of mid-late Holocene hydro-climatic change are presented from Mer Bleue Bog, eastern Ontario. Past climatic changes in this region have previously been inferred from lake sediments, but rain-fed peatlands can offer additional insights into the spatial and temporal pattern of moisture availability. In this study, reconstructed water table depths are based on a testate amoeba-derived transfer function developed for the region and changes in bog surface wetness are compared with plant macrofossil and peat humification data.

RÉSUMÉ Nous présentons les enregistrements hautes résolutions des variations hydrologique durant la second moitié de l’Holocène pour les tourbières Mer Bleue á l’est de l'Ontario. Précédemment, les changements climatiques de cette région ont été dérivés à partir de prélèvement de sédiments de lac. Mais ils s’avèrent que les tourbières ombrotrophes offrir un éclairage supplémentaire sur les schémas de répartition spatiale et temporelle de la disponibilité de l'humidité. Dans cette étude, des profondeurs reconstruites de nappe phréatique sont basées sur un modèle de function de transfert d’amibes (Arcellinida) et des changements de l’humidité de surface de la tourbière sont comparés avec les macrofossils et au humification de tourbe dans une analyse multi-proxy.

Issue salience in regional party manifestos in Spain

This article analyses the dynamics of electoral competition in a multilevel setting. It is based on a content analysis of the party manifestos of the Spanish PP and PSOE in eight regional elections held between 2001 and 2003. It provides an innovative coding scheme for analysing regional party manifestos and on that basis seeks to account for inter-regional, intra-party and inter-party differences in regional campaigning. The authors have tried to explain the inter-regional variation of the issue profiles of state-wide parties in regional elections on the basis of a model with four independent variables: the asymmetric nature of the system, the electoral cycle, the regional party systems and the organisation of the state-wide parties. Three of their hypotheses are rejected, but the stronger variations in the regional issue profiles of the PSOE corroborate the assumption that parties with a more decentralised party organisation support regionally more diverse campaigning. The article concludes by offering an alternative explanation for this finding and by suggesting avenues for further research.

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.