819 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08
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The calico box crab Hepatus epheliticus is an abundant species from shallow and continental shelf waters of the Atlantic coast of USA and Mexico. Information about population structure and sexual maturity is absent, even though this crab is caught to be used as bait for the octopus fishery in the Campeche Bank, Mexico. In order to achieve such information, a total of 768 individuals were collected from January to March 2010 through baited traps installed in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Our results showed that sex ratio is biased towards more males than females (1:0.55), contradicting to that reported in other brachyuran crabs. The absence of ovigerous females suggests that they did not enter into the traps during embryogenesis. Males reached a larger maximum size than females (64.0 +/- 6.15 and 58.4 +/- 5.60 mm carapace width, respectively). The general scheme of growth being positive allometric throughout ontogeny of both sexes. Males presented a transition phase from juveniles to adult corresponding to the puberty moult. The estimation of the onset of functional sexual maturity revealed a steady situation for the population, with 21.5 and 13.8% of males and females, respectively, morphologically immature at the time of catch. This study constitutes the first report on population structure and sexual maturity in a population of the calico box crab H. epheliticus.
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La eliminación de barreras entre países es una consecuencia que llega con la globalización y con los acuerdos de TLC firmados en los últimos años. Esto implica un crecimiento significativo del comercio exterior, lo cual se ve reflejado en un aumento de la complejidad de la cadena de suministro de las empresas. Debido a lo anterior, se hace necesaria la búsqueda de alternativas para obtener altos niveles de productividad y competitividad dentro de las empresas en Colombia, ya que el entorno se ha vuelto cada vez más complejo, saturado de competencia no sólo nacional, sino también internacional. Para mantenerse en una posición competitiva favorable, las compañías deben enfocarse en las actividades que le agregan valor a su negocio, por lo cual una de las alternativas que se están adoptando hoy en día es la tercerización de funciones logísticas a empresas especializadas en el manejo de estos servicios. Tales empresas son los Proveedores de servicios logísticos (LSP), quienes actúan como agentes externos a la organización al gestionar, controlar y proporcionar actividades logísticas en nombre de un contratante. Las actividades realizadas pueden incluir todas o parte de las actividades logísticas, pero como mínimo la gestión y ejecución del transporte y almacenamiento deben estar incluidos (Berglund, 2000). El propósito del documento es analizar el papel de los Operadores Logísticos de Tercer nivel (3PL) como promotores del desempeño organizacional en las empresas colombianas, con el fin de informar a las MIPYMES acerca de los beneficios que se obtienen al trabajar con LSP como un medio para mejorar la posición competitiva del país.
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Sistematiza-se o conhecimento disponível sobre o estágio atual de efetivação das principais políticas de saúde bucal no Brasil e seu impacto sobre as desigualdades em saúde. Embora a fluoretação da água de abastecimento público no Brasil seja uma determinação legal, sua implantação tem sofrido marcantes desigualdades regionais. São apresentados dados sobre o grau de efetivação da medida e são revisados estudos que avaliaram seu impacto sobre a ampliação da desigualdade na experiência de cárie dentária. A oferta de atendimento público odontológico, ampliada consideravelmente após a implantação do Sistema Único de Saúde, também é discutida em relação à provisão do serviço e seu impacto sobre a redução da desigualdade no acesso a tratamento dentário. A discussão do efeito diferencial dessas medidas propiciou a proposição de estratégias focais (direcionar a fluoretação para as áreas com maiores necessidades), visando a reduzir a desigualdade na experiência de cárie no País.
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Objective: A needs analysis was undertaken to determine the quality and effectiveness of mental health services to Indigenous consumers within a health district of Southern Queensland. The study focussed on identifying gaps in the service provision for Indigenous consumers. Tools and methodologies were developed to achieve this. Method: Data were collected through the distribution of questionnaires to the target populations: district health service staff and Indigenous consumers. Questionnaires were developed through consultation with the community and the Steering Committee in order to achieve culturally appropriate wording. Of prime importance was the adaptation of questionnaire language so it would be fully understood by Indigenous consumers. Both questionnaires were designed to provide a balanced perspective of current mental health service needs for Indigenous people within the mental health service. Results: Results suggest that existing mental health services do not adequately meet the needs of Indigenous people. Conclusions: Recommendations arising from this study indicate a need for better communication and genuine partnerships between the mental health service and Indigenous people that reflect respect of cultural heritage and recognises the importance of including Indigenous people in the design and management of mental health services. Attention to the recommendations from this study will help ensure a culturally appropriate and effective mental health service for Indigenous consumers.
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This paper summarizes the processes involved in designing a mathematical model of a growing pasture plant, Stylosanthes scabra Vog. cv. Fitzroy. The model is based on the mathematical formalism of Lindenmayer systems and yields realistic computer-generated images of progressive plant geometry through time. The processes involved in attaining growth data, retrieving useful growth rules, and constructing a virtual plant model are outlined. Progressive output morphological data proved useful for predicting total leaf area and allowed for easier quantification of plant canopy size in terms of biomass and total leaf area.
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Background, Rural experience for dental students can provide valuable clinical education, change attitudes to rural practice, and make a valuable contribution to clinical service provision. The aim of this paper is to assess the costs and benefits of service delivery by students through rural training programmes Methods: Groups of two students worked in the public dental clinics in adjacent rural centres where there had been long-term difficulties in recruiting staff. The costs and benefits of the programme were assessed by the impact on waiting lists, the total cost per patient of, a course of care and by the marginal cost of adding service provision by students to existing arrangements. Results: The total costs of emergency and complete treatment provided by students were greater than the costs of treatment provided by public-sector dentists but less than the costs of private providers treating public patients. However, the value of services were greater when care was provided by students or private providers and the marginal cost of students providing services was 50-70 per cent of the cost of care provided by public dentists. Conclusion: This assessment suggests that the service benefits achieved compliment the primary objective of influencing the attitude of students to rural practice.
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A migration of Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), Heliothis punctifera (Walker) and Agrotis munda Walker was tracked from Cameron Corner (29degrees00'S, 141degrees00'E) in inland Australia to the Wilcannia region, approximately 400 km to the south-east. A relatively isolated source population was located using a distribution model to predict winter breeding, and confirmed by surveys using sweep netting for larvae. When a synoptic weather pattern likely to produce suitable conditions for migration developed, moths were trapped in the source region. The next morning a simulation model of migration using wind-field data generated by a numerical weather-prediction model was run. Surveys using sweep netting for larvae, trapping and flush counts were then conducted in and around the predicted moth fallout area, approximately 400 km to the south-east. Pollen carried on the probosces of moths caught in this area was compared with that on moths caught in the source area. The survey data and pollen comparisons provided evidence that migration had occurred, and that the migration model gave accurate estimation of the fallout region. The ecological and economic implications of such migrations are discussed.
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Na sociedade actual, é cada vez mais difícil desassociar o ambiente financeiro do ambiente social, tendo o primeiro influência directa ou indirecta em praticamente todos os aspectos da sociedade. A esta influência está associada a vasta quantidade de informação e serviços financeiros que possibilitam uma melhor compreensão do ambiente socioeconómico actual, permitindo também o estudo das evoluções e das dinâmicas dos mercados financeiros. Este trabalho refere-se ao estudo e comparação de algumas ferramentas disponíveis para a análise dinâmica e tentativa de previsão de alguns índices de bolsa escolhidos. Tais métodos a estudar são modelos clássicos como o Autoregressivo, Média Móvel e o Modelo Misto apresentado por Box e Jenkins. São também propostos dois métodos que tentam distanciar-se dos métodos tradicionais por apenas considerarem para a sua previsão os momentos semelhantes ao momento actual que se tenta prever, ao invés de considerar todo o espectro dos dados disponíveis, tal como os métodos clássicos referidos anteriormente.
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OBJECTIVE To develop a model for evaluating the efficacy of drug-dispensing service in primary health care. METHODS An efficacy criterion was adopted to determine the level of achievement of the service objectives. The evaluation model was developed on the basis of a literature search and discussions with experts. The applicability test of the model was conducted in 15 primary health care units in the city of Florianópolis, state of Santa Catarina, in 2010, and data were recorded in structured and pretested questionnaires. RESULTS The model developed was evaluated using five dimensions of analysis for analysis. The model was suitable for evaluating service efficacy and helped to identify the critical points of each service dimension. CONCLUSIONS Adaptations to the data collection technique may be required to adjust for the reality and needs of each situation. The evaluation of the drug-dispensing service should promote adequate access to medications supplied through the public health system.
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RESUMO - A 8 de Maio de 2008 surgiu o centro de atendimento “Linha Saúde24” (S24) no sentido de modernizar o SNS, aproximando-o do cidadão. O serviço surge baseado no modelo inglês – o NHS Direct – que pode ser encarado como um serviço de informação telefónico apoiado por enfermeiros, disponível 24h por dia, concebido para expandir os serviços púbicos de acesso à rede prestadora de cuidados com intuito de aliviar a pressão da procura na rede de urgências hospitalares e médicos de família, assim como diluir as iniquidades regionais na prestação de serviços. A S24 assenta na perspectiva de ser um ponto de contacto inicial do utente com a rede de prestação de cuidados de saúde com capacidade de orientação. O objectivo da linha está na tentativa mais eficiente no uso dos recursos disponíveis, ao mesmo tempo que delega responsabilidade no cidadão na forma como este utiliza os recursos disponíveis, com melhor racionalização financeira na área da saúde aliada a uma melhor qualidade de serviço prestada e adequada, colocando os cidadãos no mesmo patamar, diluindo as dificuldades de acesso a aqueles que necessitam na tentativa de harmonizar e racionalizar o consumo de serviços de saúde. Esta estrutura permite ao cidadão conhecer melhor o seu estado de saúde e decidir mais acertadamente quanto à decisão a tomar. Com este estudo, e com base na literatura nacional e internacional, pretende-se descrever o perfil de utilizador que acede à S24 – definir o tipo de utilizador, disposição geográfica, motivos pelo qual acede ao serviço e qual o seu destino final, fazendo comparação com o perfil do NHS Direct. Assim, e com os dados obtidos, far-se-á uma avaliação preliminar em termos do contributo da linha S24 no que concerne à sua eficiência, equidade e empowerment dado ao utilizador. --- ------------------------------ABSTRACT - Saúde 24 (S24) is a national 24-hour health line initiated in May 2008 aiming at modernizing the Portuguese NHS by bringing it closer to the citizen. Indeed, S24 be seen as an initial contact point between the patient and the healthcare network, facilitating a better a management of health care demand. The service is inspired on the UK NHS Direct – a nurse-led telephone line to provide easier and faster advice information to people about health, illness and NHS services. It is expected to provide information so that people can deal with their health problems or their families´ on their own, with the purpose of reducing demand to A&E department and out-of-hours GP services. Additionally it can contribute to a reduction in regional inequities in healthcare provision through bringing health care advice to remote areas. The purpose of S24 is to handle more efficiently the available resources by enabling responsibilities in citizens. By doing so, S24 encourages a more appropriate use of available resources, with better financial outcomes and a better quality of care. It is meant, in terms of empowerment, to help people to be in control of their health and healthcare interactions by participating in the final decision. Based on quantitative data, this study defines the S24 caller user profile in terms of type, geographical reference, reasons for calling and outcome. This analysis allows us to perform a preliminary evaluation of the S24 in terms of its contribution to efficiency, equity and empowerment. Then the S24 is compared to
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Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores Especialidade: Robótica e Manufactura Integrada
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RESUMO: Este estudo procurou documentar a perspectiva (s) dos utentes de saúde mental e das associações de prestadores de cuidados sobre a prestação, o papel e a contribuição de serviços de saúde mental da comunidade tal como foram percebidos por um número de informadores-chave, incluindo os utentes do serviço mentais e os próprios prestadores de cuidados. O caso específico da Sociedade Saúde Mental do Gana (MEHSOG) foi o foco deste estudo. O modelo foi o de um estudo de caso, utilizando discussões de grupo e entrevistas com informadores-chave como instrumentos de recolha de dados. Estas ferramentas de colheita de dados foram complementadas por observações dos participantes e pela revisão de documentos da MEHSOG e dos vários grupos de apoio da comunidade de auto-ajuda que compõem a associação nacional. O estudo revelou que os utentes dos serviços de saúde mental e seus prestadores de cuidados constituem um importante grupo de partes interessadas na prestação de serviços de saúde mental da comunidade e no desenvolvimento de políticas que tenham em conta as necessidades e os direitos das pessoas com doença mental ou epilepsia. O envolvimento da MEHSOG promove a mobilização de membros e famílias relacionadas com a doença mental de beneficiar de serviços de tratamento bem organizados com um impacto significativo na melhoria da saúde e da participação dos utentes dos serviços e seus prestadores de cuidados primários em processos de tomada de decisão da família e na comunidade processos de desenvolvimento. Os utentes dos serviços por beneficiarem de tratamento, e os prestadores de cuidados primários, por se tornarem mais livres e menos sobrecarregados com a responsabilidade de cuidar, podem passar a envolver-se mais em atividades que melhoramo seu estado, o de suas famílias e das comunidades. A advocacia dos membros da MEHSOG para conseguir que a “Mental Health Bill” se transforme numa Lei foi também um desenvolvimento significativo resultante da participação ativa dos utentes do serviço em chamar a atenção para uma nova e inclusiva legislação de saúde mental para o Gana. Entre os fatores e oportunidades que permitiram aos utentes dos serviços de saúde mental e aos prestadores de cuidados primários de pessoas com doença mental apoiar activamente a prestação de serviços de saúde mental comunitária e o desenvolvimento de políticas conta-se a contribuição da sociedade civil do Gana, particularmente o movimento da deficiência, e os esforços anteriores de ONGs em saúde mental e dos profissionais de saúde mental para ter uma nova lei em saúde mental. Observámos um certo número de desafios e barreiras que actuam de forma a limitar a influência dos utentes dos serviços de saúde mental na provisão da saúde mental comunitária e no desenvolvimento de políticas. Entre elas o estigma social contra a doença mental e pessoas com doença mental ou epilepsia e seus cuidadores primaries é um factor chave. O estigma tem alterado a percepção e as análises do público em geral, especialmente dos profissionais de saúde e das autoridades políticas afetando a priorização dos problemas de saúde mental nas políticas e programas. Outro desafio foi a deficiente infra-estrutura disponível para apoiar serviços de saúde mentais que assegurem aos utentes permanecerem em bom estado de saúde e bem-estar para serem advogados de si próprios. A recomendação do presente estudo é que os movimentos de utentes dos serviços de saúde mental são importantes e que eles precisam de ser apoiados e encorajados a desempenhar o seu papel como pessoas com experiência vivida para contribuir para a organização e prestação de serviços de saúde mental, bem como para a implementação, monitorização e avaliação de políticas e programas. ------------------------------------ ABSTRACT: This study sought to document the perspective(s) of mental health users and care-givers associations in community mental health service provision and their role and contribution as it was perceived by a number of key informants including the mental service users and care-givers themselves. The specific case of the Mental Health Society of Ghana (MEHSOG) was the focus of this study. A case study approach was used to with Focus Group Discussions and Key Informants Interviews being the data collection tools that were used. These data collection tools were complemented by participant observations and review of documents of the MEHSOG and the various community self-help peer support groups that make up the national association. The study revealed that mental health service users and their care-givers constitute an important stakeholder group in community mental health service provision and development of policies that factor in the needs and rights of persons with mental illness or epilepsy. MEHSOG’s involvement in mobilising members and education families to come forward with the relations with mental illness to benefit from treatment services were well made a significant impact in improving the health and participation of service users and their primary carers in family decision-making processes and in community development processes. Service users, on benefiting from treatment, and primary care-givers, on becoming freer and less burdened with the responsibility of care, move on to engage in secure livelihoods activities, which enhanced their status in their families and communities. The advocacy MEHSOG members undertook in getting the mental health Bill become Law was also noted as significant development that was realised as a result of active involvement of service users in calling for a new and inclusive mental health legislation for Ghana. Enabling factors and opportunities that enabled mental health service users and primary care-givers of people with mental illness to actively support community mental health service provision and policy development is with the vibrant civil society presence in Ghana, particularly the disability movement, and earlier efforts by NGOs in mental health in Ghana long-side mental health professionals to have a new law in mental health. A number of challenges were also noted which were found to limit the extent to which mental health service users can be influential in community mental health service provision and policy development. Key among them was the social stigma against mental illness and people with mental illness or epilepsy and their primary carers. Stigma has affected perceptions, analyses of the general public, especially health practitioners and policy authorities that it has affected their prioritisation of mental health issues in policies and programmes. Another challenge was the poor infrastructure available to support enhanced mental health care services that ensure mental health service users remain in a good state of health and wellbeing to advocate for themselves. The recommendation from the study is that mental health service user movements are important and need to be supported and encouraged to play their role as persons with lived experience to inform organisation and provision of mental health services as well as design and implementation, monitoring and evaluation of policies and programes.
Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants
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Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.
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We identify a number of elements of the current Spanish system of regional financing that do not conform satisfactorily to the principles of equity, autonomy and efficiency that should inspire its design. Our main conclusion is that although the system presents a series of shortcomings that would require an in-depth reform, its basic focus on the equalization of the service provision capacity of all regional governments should be preserved because it is in accordance with the constitutional guarantee of equal rights for all citizens and with notions of horizontal equity that are widely shared in our country. In fact, the main shortcoming of the system is, in our opinion, that it does not fully guarantee such equality in practice. Additional weaknesses of the system are its lack of transparency, the absence of mechanisms to maintain vertical equilibrium across the different levels of the administration and a significant deficit of fiscal autonomy and responsibility on the pa