Context-free and context-sensitive dynamics in recurrent neural networks

Continuous-valued recurrent neural networks can learn mechanisms for processing context-free languages. The dynamics of such networks is usually based on damped oscillation around fixed points in state space and requires that the dynamical components are arranged in certain ways. It is shown that qualitatively similar dynamics with similar constraints hold for a(n)b(n)c(n), a context-sensitive language. The additional difficulty with a(n)b(n)c(n), compared with the context-free language a(n)b(n), consists of 'counting up' and 'counting down' letters simultaneously. The network solution is to oscillate in two principal dimensions, one for counting up and one for counting down. This study focuses on the dynamics employed by the sequential cascaded network, in contrast to the simple recurrent network, and the use of backpropagation through time. Found solutions generalize well beyond training data, however, learning is not reliable. The contribution of this study lies in demonstrating how the dynamics in recurrent neural networks that process context-free languages can also be employed in processing some context-sensitive languages (traditionally thought of as requiring additional computation resources). This continuity of mechanism between language classes contributes to our understanding of neural networks in modelling language learning and processing.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

Rural and urban attitudes to the conservation of Asian elephants in Sri Lanka: Empirical evidence

There has been little study of economic and general attitudes towards the conservation of the Asian elephant. This paper reports and analyses results from surveys conducted in Sri Lanka of attitudes of urban dwellers and farmers towards nature conservation in general and the elephant conservation in particular. The analyses are based on urban and a rural sample. Contingent valuation techniques are used as survey instruments. Multivariate logit regression analysis is used to analyze the respondents’ attitudes towards conservation of elephants. It is found that, although some variations occurred between the samples, the majority of the respondents (both rural and urban) have positive attitudes towards nature conservation in general. However, marked differences in attitudes toward elephant conservation are evident between these two samples: the majority of urban respondents were in favour of elephant conservation; rural respondents expressed a mixture of positive and negative attitudes. Overall, considerable unrecorded and as yet unutilised economic support for conservation of wild elephants exists in Sri Lanka.

Willingness to pay for conservation of the Asian elephant in Sri Lanka: A contingent valuation study

Results from a CVM survey of willingness to pay for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka, are reported. Face– to–face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule. A non-linear logit regression model was constructed to analyse the respondents’ responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents’ WTP for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants, and consequently to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on the farming fields. We find that beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the farmers in the HEC affected areas) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. This suggests that there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine Sri Lanka’s optimal elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense.

Willingness of Sri Lankan farmers to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants: An empirical analysis

This paper explores the feasibility of adopting an integrated economic approach to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on their farming lands. Responses to this approach were sought from a sample of farmers in the areas affected by human elephant conflict in the northwestern province of Sri Lanka. Results from a contingent valuation survey of their willingness to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants are also reported. Two separate logit regression analyses were undertaken to examine the factors that influence the farmers’ responses for the payment principle question and their opinions on the integrated economic approach. Although found that the majority of the respondents expressed their willingness to pay for the proposed scheme and supported for the implementation of the integrated approach, we have insufficient data yet to determine if their support and financial contribution would be sufficient to set up this programme and also to predict its economic viability. Nevertheless, the overall finding of this study provides an improved economic assessment of the farmers’ attitudes towards the wild elephant in Sri Lanka. At the same time the study shows that, contrary to commonly held assumptions, farmers in this developing country, do support wildlife conservation.

The net benefit of saving the Asian Elephant: A policy and contingent valuation Study

Reports results from a contingent valuation survey of willingness to pay for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents living in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. Face–to–face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule. A non-linear logit regression model is used to analyse the respondents’ responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents’ willingness to pay for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants. We find that the beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the farmers in the areas affected by human–elephant conflict) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. Therefore, there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine the optimal level of this elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense. Nevertheless, the current population of elephant in Sri Lanka is Kaldor-Hicks preferable to having none.

Predictors of non-response to a questionnaire survey of a volunteer twin panel: Findings from the Australian 1989 twin cohort

Questionnaire surveys, while more economical, typically achieve poorer response rates than interview surveys. We used data from a national volunteer cohort of young adult twins, who were scheduled for assessment by questionnaire in 1989 and by interview in 1996-2000, to identify predictors of questionnaire non-response. Out of a total of 8536 twins, 5058 completed the questionnaire survey (59% response rate), and 6255 completed a telephone interview survey conducted a decade later (73% response rate). Multinomial logit models were fitted to the interview data to identify socioeconomic, psychiatric and health behavior correlates of non-response in the earlier questionnaire survey. Male gender, education below University level, and being a dizygotic rather than monozygotic twin, all predicted reduced likelihood of participating in the questionnaire survey. Associations between questionnaire response status and psychiatric history and health behavior variables were modest, with history of alcohol dependence and childhood conduct disorder predicting decreased probability of returning a questionnaire, and history of smoking and heavy drinking more weakly associated with non-response. Body-mass index showed no association with questionnaire non-response. Despite a poor response rate to the self-report questionnaire survey, we found only limited sampling biases for most variables. While not appropriate for studies where socioeconomic variables are critical, it appears that survey by questionnaire, with questionnaire administration by telephone to non-responders, will represent a viable strategy for gene-mapping studies requiring that large numbers of relatives be screened.

Control of chaotic motion in a dual-spin spacecraft with nutational damping

Control of chaotic vibrations in a dual-spin spacecraft with an axial nutational damper is achieved using two techniques. The control methods are implemented on two realistic spacecraft parameter configurations that have been found to exhibit chaotic instability when a sinusoidally varying torque is applied to the spacecraft for a range of forcing amplitudes and frequencies. Such a torque, in practice, may arise under malfunction of the control system or from an unbalanced rotor. Chaotic instabilities arising from these torques could introduce uncertainties and irregularities into a spacecraft's attitude motion and, consequently, could have disastrous effects on its operation. The two control methods, recursive proportional feedback and continuous delayed feedback, are recently developed techniques for control of chaotic motion in dynamic systems. Each technique is outlined and the effectiveness on this model compared and contrasted. Numerical simulations are performed, and the results are studied by means of time history, phase space, Poincare map, Lyapunov characteristic exponents, and bifurcation diagrams.

Database technologies for l-system simulations in virtual plant applications on bioinformatics

One of the most important advantages of database systems is that the underlying mathematics is rich enough to specify very complex operations with a small number of statements in the database language. This research covers an aspect of biological informatics that is the marriage of information technology and biology, involving the study of real-world phenomena using virtual plants derived from L-systems simulation. L-systems were introduced by Aristid Lindenmayer as a mathematical model of multicellular organisms. Not much consideration has been given to the problem of persistent storage for these simulations. Current procedures for querying data generated by L-systems for scientific experiments, simulations and measurements are also inadequate. To address these problems the research in this paper presents a generic process for data-modeling tools (L-DBM) between L-systems and database systems. This paper shows how L-system productions can be generically and automatically represented in database schemas and how a database can be populated from the L-system strings. This paper further describes the idea of pre-computing recursive structures in the data into derived attributes using compiler generation. A method to allow a correspondence between biologists' terms and compiler-generated terms in a biologist computing environment is supplied. Once the L-DBM gets any specific L-systems productions and its declarations, it can generate the specific schema for both simple correspondence terminology and also complex recursive structure data attributes and relationships.

Mapping the royal road and other hierarchical functions

In this paper we present a technique for visualising hierarchical and symmetric, multimodal fitness functions that have been investigated in the evolutionary computation literature. The focus of this technique is on landscapes in moderate-dimensional, binary spaces (i.e., fitness functions defined over {0, 1}(n), for n less than or equal to 16). The visualisation approach involves an unfolding of the hyperspace into a two-dimensional graph, whose layout represents the topology of the space using a recursive relationship, and whose shading defines the shape of the cost surface defined on the space. Using this technique we present case-study explorations of three fitness functions: royal road, hierarchical-if-and-only-if (H-IFF), and hierarchically decomposable functions (HDF). The visualisation approach provides an insight into the properties of these functions, particularly with respect to the size and shape of the basins of attraction around each of the local optima.

Mecanismos de governança corporativa na pequena empresa familiar

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo descrever e analisar como o fenômeno da governança corporativa articula mecanismos de gestão e impacta na dinâmica de uma pequena organização familiar. Para isso, utilizou-se as perspectivas de Fan (2001) e Silva Junior (2006), que tratam da governança corporativa, e de Chandler (1994), para empresas familiares. Através de abordagem qualitativa com ênfase em um estudo de caso, uma triangulação de dados foi realizada, utilizando a entrevista semiestruturada, observação assistemática ou livre e pesquisa de documentos, e a análise dos dados foi realizada por análise de conteúdo. Verificou-se a presença do fenômeno da governança por intermédio da identificação dos fatores de diferenciação, resultando na implantação de mecanismos de governança ao longo do ciclo de vida da organização familiar, o que possibilitou mudanças em seu controle, no seu processo sucessório e na sua profissionalização. Quanto ao controle, foram verificados que os mecanismos de “manutenção do status quo”, “aconselhamento profissional”, “sinergia de interesses”, “regulamentação financeira da sociedade”, “atribuições e responsabilidades”, “alinhamento de interesses do negócio” e “proteção do empreendimento familiar” possibilitaram a modificação e manutenção do controle da empresa com os sócios. Quanto ao eixo da profissionalização, foi verificado que os mecanismos de “regulamentação financeira da sociedade”, “atribuições e responsabilidades”, “alinhamento de interesses do negócio”, “proteção do empreendimento familiar” e “atenção aos interesses dos stakeholders” foram responsáveis por prover as modificações neste quesito e indicar que a empresa caminha no sentido de se profissionalizar. Quanto ao processo sucessório, verificou-se que a terceira geração não tem interesse na empresa, o que podem resultar na contratação de um profissional externo para gerir a mesma, respeitando a questão dos valores familiares e a cultura organizacional ou conduzir à sucessão recursiva. Aparentemente, observou-se que a segunda questão foi mais evidente, visto que a saída do último irmão do negócio culmina com a venda da empresa familiar, gerando duas alternativas: a compra da empresa por um grupo de sócios ou outra empresa não familiar, o que resultaria na “morte” da empresa enquanto empresa familiar; ou a sua compra por outra família ou empresa familiar, preservando sua classificação inicial.

Mobilidade geográfica de trabalhadores qualificados : principais evidências para o Brasil e o Espírito Santo

O objetivo desta dissertação, de forma geral, foi estimar empiricamente a probabilidade de imigração interestadual de trabalhadores qualificados para o Brasil. Consideraram-se tanto as variáveis relativas ao indivíduo quanto as variáveis relacionadas aos fatores regionais de origem e destino do imigrante e as análises foram feitas para os anos de 2001, 2006 e 2011. Para estimar os coeficientes das variáveis explicativas foram utilizados os modelos probit e logit. Os bancos de dados utilizados foram os microdados da PNAD e os principais resultados mostram que o principal polo de atração de trabalhadores qualificados é o estado de São Paulo. Em geral a probabilidade de migração de trabalhadores qualificados é maior para os indivíduos do sexo masculino, brancos e solteiros. Pessoas mais jovens e com maiores salários também são mais propensas a serem imigrantes qualificados.