Are Decision Makers Rational in Ambiguous Situations?

This research work analyzes human behavior in complex situations and explains how decisions makers act in ambiguous situations. The objective of this research work is to study the sunk cost effect and the completion percentage effect of an investment project in a decision-making process. This research work uses a “retrospective rationality” approach to justify irrational behaviors such as the sunk cost effect, the completion percentage effect of an investment project and the irrational escalation since decision-makers are repeatedly affected by the decisions on past irreversible investments. This research work evaluates three sunk cost levels, and three completion percentage levels of an investment project, besides three neutral situations in a business environment and a personal decision situation. Graduate students in three Portuguese Management Schools responded to the questionnaires. Model results show that the value of resources invested is crucial for understanding the students’ rational behavior, who participated in this research work. These results disclose statistical evidence that the information on sunk costs and completion percentage of an investment project determines human behavior under irrational escalation in ambiguous situations. As a consequence, decision makers have the opportunity to interpret their decisions, since the scenarios do not allow a unique definition of rational choice, it is not correct to judge the irrational decision makers that decide to continue to invest in ambiguous situations. Keywords: Human Behavior, Sunk costs Effect, Completion Percentage Effect of an Investment Project, Irrational Escalation, Ambiguous Situations.

The call of the road : factors predicting students' car travelling intentions and behaviour

The most common daily trip for employed persons and students is the commute to and from work and/or place of study. Though there are clear environmental, health and safety benefits from using public transport instead of private vehicles for these trips, a high proportion of commuters still choose private vehicles to get to work or study. This study reports an investigation of psychological factors influencing students’ travel choices from the perspective of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Students from 3 different university campuses (n= 186) completed a cross-sectional survey on their car commuting behaviour. Particular focus was given to whether car commuting habits could add to understanding of commuting behaviour over and above behavioural intentions. Results indicated that, as expected, behavioural intention to travel by car was the strongest TPB predictor of car commuting behaviour. Further, general car commuting habits explained additional variance over and above TPB constructs, though the contribution was modest. No relationship between habit and intentions was found. Overall results suggest that, although student car commuting behaviour is habitual in nature, it is predominantly guided by reasoned action. Implications of these findings are that in order to alter the use of private vehicles, the factors influencing commuters’ intentions to travel by car must be addressed. Specifically, interventions should target the perceived high levels of both the acceptability of commuting by car and the perceived control over the choice to commute by car.

Ambivalence and the experience of China-educated nurses working in Australia

The last decade has seen an increase in research on the experience of immigrant nurses. There are two prevailing approaches in this body of work. One is a focus on the positive or negative aspects of the experience, and the other, a depiction of the experience as a linear movement from struggle to a comfortable state. Based on our study findings on the experience of China educated nurses working in Australia, this study proposes that the concept of ambivalence is more appropriate in portraying the experience of immigrant nurses. Several sources of ambivalence experienced by the participants are represented: a disparity between expectation and reality, conflicting social and cultural norms, the dual reference points of comparison, divergent interests within families, and a sense that although it is unsatisfactory, it is hard to go back. We argue that immigration generates various forms of ambivalence and immigrant nurses must live with more or less ambivalence. The notion of ambivalence can explain a range of behaviours and situations beyond the scope of rational-choice explanations. To date, ambivalence as a theoretical concept in understanding the experience of immigrant nurses has been either ignored or insufficiently addressed in the literature.

Politicians : Be killed or survive

In the course of history, a large number of politicians have been assassinated. To investigate this phenomenon, rational choice hypotheses are developed and tested using a large data set covering close to 100 countries over a period of 20 years. Several strategies, in addition to security measures, are shown to significantly reduce the probability of politicians being attacked or killed: extended institutional and governance quality, democracy, voice and accountability, a well-functioning system of law and order, decentralization via the division of power and federalism, larger cabinet size and a stronger civil society. There is also support for a contagion effect.

Flexing some muscle: strategy and outcomes in the Queensland health and fitness industry

In 1993, contrary to the trend towards enterprise bargaining, and despite an employment environment favouring strong managerial prerogative, a small group of employers in the Queensland commercial health and fitness industry sought industrial regulation through an industry-specific award. A range of factors, including increased competition and unscrupulous profiteers damaging the industry’s reputation, triggered the actions as a business strategy. The strategic choices of the employer group, to approach a union to initiate a consent award, are the inverse of behaviours expected under strategic choice theory. This article argues that organizational size, collective employer action, focus on industry rather than organizational outcomes and the traditional industrial relations system providing broader impacts explain their atypical behaviour.

Demystifying paradoxical characteristics of narcissistic personality disorder

This letter is aimed for psychotherapy clinicians and researchers who should acknowledge the relationship linking Kohut's self-psychology and Glasser's Choice theory that can demystify relationship difficulties and mental health problems in narcissistic personality disorder (NPD).

Probabilistic Seismic Design of Pile Foundations in Non Liquefiable Soil by Response Spectrum Approach

The behavior of pile foundations in non liquefiable soil under seismic loading is considerably influenced by the variability in the soil and seismic design parameters. Hence, probabilistic models for the assessment of seismic pile design are necessary. Deformation of pile foundation in non liquefiable soil is dominated by inertial force from superstructure. The present study considers a pseudo-static approach based on code specified design response spectra. The response of the pile is determined by equivalent cantilever approach. The soil medium is modeled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth. The variability associated with undrained shear strength, design response spectrum ordinate, and superstructure mass is taken into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation technique is adopted to determine the probability of failure and reliability indices based on pile failure modes, namely exceedance of lateral displacement limit and moment capacity. A reliability-based design approach for the free head pile under seismic force is suggested that enables a rational choice of pile design parameters.

Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach

The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.

Scalable Preference Aggregation in Social Networks

In social choice theory, preference aggregation refers to computing an aggregate preference over a set of alternatives given individual preferences of all the agents. In real-world scenarios, it may not be feasible to gather preferences from all the agents. Moreover, determining the aggregate preference is computationally intensive. In this paper, we show that the aggregate preference of the agents in a social network can be computed efficiently and with sufficient accuracy using preferences elicited from a small subset of critical nodes in the network. Our methodology uses a model developed based on real-world data obtained using a survey on human subjects, and exploits network structure and homophily of relationships. Our approach guarantees good performance for aggregation rules that satisfy a property which we call expected weak insensitivity. We demonstrate empirically that many practically relevant aggregation rules satisfy this property. We also show that two natural objective functions in this context satisfy certain properties, which makes our methodology attractive for scalable preference aggregation over large scale social networks. We conclude that our approach is superior to random polling while aggregating preferences related to individualistic metrics, whereas random polling is acceptable in the case of social metrics.

Kernelization complexity of possible winner and coalitional manipulation problems in voting

In the POSSIBLE WINNER problem in computational social choice theory, we are given a set of partial preferences and the question is whether a distinguished candidate could be made winner by extending the partial preferences to linear preferences. Previous work has provided, for many common voting rules, fixed parameter tractable algorithms for the POSSIBLE WINNER problem, with number of candidates as the parameter. However, the corresponding kernelization question is still open and in fact, has been mentioned as a key research challenge 10]. In this paper, we settle this open question for many common voting rules. We show that the POSSIBLE WINNER problem for maximin, Copeland, Bucklin, ranked pairs, and a class of scoring rules that includes the Borda voting rule does not admit a polynomial kernel with the number of candidates as the parameter. We show however that the COALITIONAL MANIPULATION problem which is an important special case of the POSSIBLE WINNER problem does admit a polynomial kernel for maximin, Copeland, ranked pairs, and a class of scoring rules that includes the Borda voting rule, when the number of manipulators is polynomial in the number of candidates. A significant conclusion of our work is that the POSSIBLE WINNER problem is harder than the COALITIONAL MANIPULATION problem since the COALITIONAL MANIPULATION problem admits a polynomial kernel whereas the POSSIBLE WINNER problem does not admit a polynomial kernel. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Democratic Values Transmission

This study addresses the issue of intergenerational transmission of democratic values embedded in social choice rules. We focus on a few rules which have been the focus of social choice theory: plurality, plurality with a runoff, majoritarian compromise, social compromise and Borda rule. We confront subjects with preferences profiles of a hypothetical electorate over a set of four alternatives. Different rules produce different outcomes and subjects decide which alternative should be chosen for the society whose preference profile is shown. We elicit each subject's preferences over rules and his/her parents' and check whether there is any relationship; 186 students and their parents attended the sessions at Istanbul Bilgi University. Overall, we find support for the hypothesis of parental transmission of democratic values and gender differences in the transmitted rule.

Ensaismo, ação coletiva e Estado nacional : uma metainterpretação de obras selecionadas da literatura Brasiliana

O objetivo da tese é expor o movimento de coordenação coletiva que subjaz a um conjunto selecionado de obras de autores brasileiros da primeira metade do século XX reunidas sob o título Coleção Brasiliana. Sustenta-se a hipótese de que esse grupo de intelectuais interveio regularmente no debate público durante três ou quatro décadas do século passado de forma racional e concertada com vistas a construir no futuro próximo um Estado nacional no Brasil. Se o diagnóstico procede, esteve-se às voltas com um problema de ação coletiva, posto que um Estado de tipo nacional é um bem público. A estratégia de solução intraelite consistiu na criação de uma cultura política de massas baseada na idéia de ?imperativo nacional? que, mobilizando ideologicamente a opinião pública e os governantes, logrou êxito quanto aos objetivos inscritos de antemão em sua retórica: por fim à desordem, restituir a organização da nação e criar instituições políticas congruentes com a realidade do país. Para efeito do trabalho ora apresentado, os processos de state building envolvem, entre os itens de maior importância, a territorialização eficaz, a legitimação da autoridade pública e a organização da solidariedade social. No caso do Brasil, uma vez resolvido o dilema de ação coletiva relativamente aos intelectuais, emergiria mais tarde, em 1937, a estrutura institucional destinada a fixar regras, reduzir incertezas e/ou custos de informação, dotar os atores de expectativas recíprocas, enfim, trazer regularidade e curso estável às trocas entre os indivíduos: o Estado Novo. O trabalho se divide em quatro capítulos, seguidos de considerações finais ligeiras. No Capítulo I, realizo um balanço pessoal sobre a recepção da rationalchoice no meio acadêmico brasileiro, além de chamar a atenção para certas estigmatizações comuns. No Capítulo II, o conceito de racionalidade individual é submetido a exame epistêmico e ontológico não exaustivo. Busco ainda aproximá-lo de aspectos externos que tendem a alterar sua substância na origem. No Capítulo III, ofereço o referencial geral sobre a formação dos estados nacionais, afora indicações rápidas quanto aos desafios que os esperam no século XXI. No Capítulo IV, última parte do texto, observo de maneira panorâmica as etapas de formação do Estado nacional no Brasil para depois discutir o modelo de país que os intelectuais brasilianos tinham em mente para o século XX. Também procuro especificar o método de trabalho (escolha dos autores, organização por tópicos e aplicação da perspectiva neo-institucionalista). As páginas restantes se destinam à exposição das idéias brasilianas. Fecho a tese com uma síntese geral acrescida de análise sobre a coordenação dos intelectuais em torno do projeto de Estado-nação no Brasil

Bases teóricas do Orçamento Participativo: um estudo na Prefeitura da cidade de Belém/PA

O objetivo central desta pesquisa consiste em verificar a existência de semelhanças entre o planejamento estratégico situacional e o orçamento participativo implementado em Belém durante o período de 1997 a 2000; assim como verificar a existência de semelhanças entre a teoria da escolha pública e o orçamento participativo em Belém no mesmo período. Para alcançar tal objetivo, serão abordadas resumidamente, a teoria da escolha pública e o planejamento estratégico situacional, como base teórica para desenvolver o estudo. Supõe-se que essas teorias fundamentam o orçamento participativo, instrumento mais conhecido de participação popular no processo da gestão pública. Para alcançar esse fim, utilizou-se o método de estudo de caso, por ser o mais indicado para esse tipo de pesquisa. Os resultados sugerem que o orçamento participativo, do modo como foi implementado na Capital do Estado do Pará, no período de 1997 a 2000 possui características da teoria e do método aqui levantados. No que diz respeito à teoria da escolha pública, características em comum com o orçamento participativo foram observadas, como reconhecer que os agentes políticos são motivados por interesses pessoais, além de admitir que a escolha política, no processo político, é resultado das preferências dos agentes envolvidos nas escolhas que permitem passar de preferências diversas de cada indivíduo para uma única escolha coletiva. Quanto ao planejamento estratégico situacional, também foram observados conceitos e características em comum com o orçamento participativo. Ambos reconhecem a existência de vários atores dentro do processo de planejamento, que passa a ser discutido diretamente com a população, inserindo todos os setores do município no processo de gestão. Através de reivindicações, que são entendidas como problemas, o planejamento passa a ser dividido com a população, e esta passa a ser atuante no planejamento do espaço em que vive. Outra característica em comum é a subjetividade, que diz respeito ao entendimento que cada ator tem de seu próprio problema, e do problema de outros atores. Pôde-se observar que a participação popular na gestão pública é instrumento de elevada importância para impulsionar o desenvolvimento social, sendo também incentivada nas formas previstas em Lei. No entanto, tal incentivo acarreta fatores diversos que por vezes fogem ao controle dos gestores, além de significar uma divisão de poderes.

Victimisation of street children in Addis Ababa: factors of resilience and susceptibility

Cross-cultural variations in conceptions of childhood are discussed, particularly with regard to child abuse and child labour. Regardless of cultural background, a universal minimum standard of child rearing is required. The street child literature is reviewed, culminating in an analysis of Ethiopian street children. Theoretically this work is informed by victimology. Concepts shared by victimology and rational choice perspective are discussed, after Fattah (1993a). Victim surveys are described, highlighting their accuracy of crime estimates. Juvenile prostitution, runaways and rape are examined, particularly with regard to their relevance in Addis Ababa. Fifty five male and 135 female street children were interviewed. Interviews with boys focused on delinquency. An age-related pattern emerged, with younger boys less likely to drink, chew khat, steal or be sexually active. Interviews with street girls focused on the differences between girls living on the streets (girls of the street), girls working on the streets (girls on the street) and a sample of homebased girls. Girls of the street come to the street come to the streets for many reasons. Conflicts with a parent or guardian account for almost 50%. They are highly vulnerable to sexual assaults, particularly those 43% who have worked as prostitutes. Girls on the street experience considerably less victimisation. Urban poor girls live in socio-economic circumstances akin to girls on the street but enjoy almost universal protection from victimisation because they do not spend time on the streets. Unprotected by the stability which a family provides, girls of the street experience high victimisation levels. Such victimisation is often the result of reliance on types of work, such as prostitution, which brings the girls into contact with exploitative adults. Resistance to such victimisation is provided by a secure place to sleep, companions, and relatively safe types of work. Such protective factors are more readily available to family based children as compared to those living independently.

Work experience in transition year: a mixed methods study of subject and career choices

Transition Year (TY) has been a feature of the Irish Education landscape for 39 years. Work experience (WE) has become a key component of TY. WE is defined as a module of between five and fifteen days duration where students engage in a work placement in the broader community. It places a major emphasis on building relationships between schools and their external communities and concomitantly between students and their potential future employers. Yet, the idea that participation in a TY work experience programme could facilitate an increased awareness of potential careers has drawn little attention from the research community. This research examines the influence WE has on the subsequent subjects choices made by students along with the effects of that experience on the students’ identities and emerging vocational identities. Socio-cultural Learning Theory and Occupational Choice Theory frame the overall study. A mixed methods approach to data collection was adopted through the administration of 323 quantitative questionnaires and 32 individual semi-structured interviews in three secondary schools. The analysis of the data was conducted using a grounded theory approach. The findings from the research show that WE makes a significant contribution to the students’ sense of agency in their own lives. It facilitates the otherwise complex process of subject choice, motivates students to work harder in their senior cycle, introduces them to the concepts of active, experience-based and self-directed learning, while boosting their self-confidence and nurturing the emergence of their personal and vocational identities. This research is a gateway to further study in this field. It also has wide reaching implications for students, teachers, school authorities, parents and policy makers regarding teaching and learning in our schools and the value of learning beyond the walls of the classroom.