Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Random path sampling applied to vector models of magnetism

The recently reported Monte Carlo Random Path Sampling method (RPS) is here improved and its application is expanded to the study of the 2D and 3D Ising and discrete Heisenberg models. The methodology was implemented to allow use in both CPU-based high-performance computing infrastructures (C/MPI) and GPU-based (CUDA) parallel computation, with significant computational performance gains. Convergence is discussed, both in terms of free energy and magnetization dependence on field/temperature. From the calculated magnetization-energy joint density of states, fast calculations of field and temperature dependent thermodynamic properties are performed, including the effects of anisotropy on coercivity, and the magnetocaloric effect. The emergence of first-order magneto-volume transitions in the compressible Ising model is interpreted using the Landau theory of phase transitions. Using metallic Gadolinium as a real-world example, the possibility of using RPS as a tool for computational magnetic materials design is discussed. Experimental magnetic and structural properties of a Gadolinium single crystal are compared to RPS-based calculations using microscopic parameters obtained from Density Functional Theory.

Genetic parameters for carcass traits and body weight using a Bayesian approach in the Canchim cattle.

Correlation between genetic parameters and factors such as backfat thickness (BFT), rib eye area (REA), and body weight (BW) were estimated for Canchim beef cattle raised in natural pastures of Brazil. Data from 1648 animals were analyzed using multi-trait (BFT, REA, and BW) animal models by the Bayesian approach. This model included the effects of contemporary group, age, and individual heterozygosity as covariates. In addition, direct additive genetic and random residual effects were also analyzed. Heritability estimated for BFT (0.16), REA (0.50), and BW (0.44) indicated their potential for genetic improvements and response to selection processes. Furthermore, genetic correlations between BW and the remaining traits were high (P > 0.50), suggesting that selection for BW could improve REA and BFT. On the other hand, genetic correlation between BFT and REA was low (P = 0.39 ± 0.17), and included considerable variations, suggesting that these traits can be jointly included as selection criteria without influencing each other. We found that REA and BFT responded to the selection processes, as measured by ultrasound. Therefore, selection for yearling weight results in changes in REA and BFT.

Understanding Red Blood Cell Parameters In The Context Of The Frailty Phenotype: Interpretations Of The Fibra (frailty In Brazilian Seniors) Study.

Frailty and anemia in the elderly appear to share a common pathophysiology associated with chronic inflammatory processes. This study uses an analytical, cross-sectional, population-based methodology to investigate the probable relationships between frailty, red blood cell parameters and inflammatory markers in 255 community-dwelling elders aged 65 years or older. The frailty phenotype was assessed by non-intentional weight loss, fatigue, low grip strength, low energy expenditure and reduced gait speed. Blood sample analyses were performed to determine hemoglobin level, hematocrit and reticulocyte count, as well as the inflammatory variables IL-6, IL-1ra and hsCRP. In the first multivariate analysis (model I), considering only the erythroid parameters, Hb concentration was a significant variable for both general frailty status and weight loss: a 1.0g/dL drop in serum Hb concentration represented a 2.02-fold increase (CI 1.12-3.63) in an individual's chance of being frail. In the second analysis (model II), which also included inflammatory cytokine levels, hsCRP was independently selected as a significant variable. Each additional year of age represented a 1.21-fold increase in the chance of being frail, and each 1-unit increase in serum hsCRP represented a 3.64-fold increase in the chance of having the frailty phenotype. In model II reticulocyte counts were associated with weight loss and reduced metabolic expenditure criteria. Our findings suggest that reduced Hb concentration, reduced RetAbs count and elevated serum hsCRP levels should be considered components of frailty, which in turn is correlated with sarcopenia, as evidenced by weight loss.

Micronutrient And Physiologic Parameters Before And 6 Months After Rygb.

Bariatric surgery is considered an effective method for sustained weight loss, but may cause various nutritional complications. The aim of this study was to evaluate the nutritional status of minerals and vitamins, food consumption, and to monitor physiologic parameters in patients with obesity before and 6 months after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB). Thirty-six patients who had undergone RYGB were prospectively evaluated before and 6 months after surgery. At each phase their weight, height, body mass index (BMI), Electro Sensor Complex (ES Complex) data, food consumption, and total protein serum levels, albumin, prealbumin, parathyroid hormone (PTH), zinc (Zn), B12 vitamin (VitB12), iron (Fe), ferritin, copper (Cu), ionic calcium (CaI), magnesium (Mg), and folic acid were assessed. The mean weight loss from baseline to 6 months after surgery was 35.34±4.82%. Markers of autonomic nervous system balance (P<.01), stiffness index (P<.01), standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN) (P<.01), and insulin resistance (P<.001) were also improved. With regard to the micronutrients measured, 34 patients demonstrated some kind of deficiency. There was a high percentage of Zn deficiency in both pre- (55.55%) and postoperative (61.11%) patients, and 33.33% of the patients were deficient in prealbumin postoperatively. The protein intake after 6 months of surgery was below the recommended intake (<70 g/d) for 88.88% of the patients. Laboratory analyses demonstrated an average decrease in total protein (P<.05), prealbumin (P = .002), and PTH (P = .008) between pre- and postsurgery, and a decrease in the percentage of deficiencies for Mg (P<.05), CaI (P<.05), and Fe (P = .021). Despite improvements in the autonomic nervous system balance, stiffness index markers and insulin resistance, we found a high prevalence of hypozincemia at 6 months post-RYGB. Furthermore, protein supplements were needed to maintain an adequate protein intake up to 6 months postsurgery.

Biased Random-key Genetic Algorithms For The Winner Determination Problem In Combinatorial Auctions.

Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.

Intrahippocampal Infusion Of Crotamine Isolated From Crotalus Durissus Terrificus Alters Plasma And Brain Biochemical Parameters.

Crotamine is one of the main constituents of the venom of the South American rattlesnake Crotalus durissus terrificus. Here we sought to investigate the inflammatory and toxicological effects induced by the intrahippocampal administration of crotamine isolated from Crotalus whole venom. Adult rats received an intrahippocampal infusion of crotamine or vehicle and were euthanized 24 h or 21 days after infusion. Plasma and brain tissue were collected for biochemical analysis. Complete blood count, creatinine, urea, glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (GOT), glutamic pyruvic transaminase (GPT), creatine-kinase (CK), creatine kinase-muscle B (CK-MB) and oxidative parameters (assessed by DNA damage and micronucleus frequency in leukocytes, lipid peroxidation and protein carbonyls in plasma and brain) were quantified. Unpaired and paired t-tests were used for comparisons between saline and crotamine groups, and within groups (24 h vs. 21 days), respectively. After 24 h crotamine infusion promoted an increase of urea, GOT, GPT, CK, and platelets values (p ≤ 0.01), while red blood cells, hematocrit and leukocytes values decreased (p ≤ 0.01). Additionally, 21 days after infusion crotamine group showed increased creatinine, leukocytes, TBARS (plasma and brain), carbonyl (plasma and brain) and micronucleus compared to the saline-group (p ≤ 0.01). Our findings show that crotamine infusion alter hematological parameters and cardiac markers, as well as oxidative parameters, not only in the brain, but also in the blood, indicating a systemic pro-inflammatory and toxicological activity. A further scientific attempt in terms of preserving the beneficial activity over toxicity is required.

Evaluation Of Red Cell And Reticulocyte Parameters As Indicative Of Iron Deficiency In Patients With Anemia Of Chronic Disease.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of mature red cell and reticulocyte parameters under three conditions: iron deficiency anemia, anemia of chronic disease, and anemia of chronic disease associated with absolute iron deficiency. Peripheral blood cells from 117 adult patients with anemia were classified according to iron status, and inflammatory activity, and the results of a hemoglobinopathy investigation as: iron deficiency anemia (n=42), anemia of chronic disease (n=28), anemia of chronic disease associated with iron deficiency anemia (n=22), and heterozygous β thalassemia (n=25). The percentage of microcytic red cells, hypochromic red cells, and levels of hemoglobin content in both reticulocytes and mature red cells were determined. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to evaluate the accuracy of the parameters in differentiating between the different types of anemia. There was no significant difference between the iron deficient group and anemia of chronic disease associated with absolute iron deficiency in respect to any parameter. The percentage of hypochromic red cells was the best parameter to discriminate anemia of chronic disease with and without absolute iron deficiency (area under curve=0.785; 95% confidence interval: 0.661-0.909, with sensitivity of 72.7%, and specificity of 70.4%; cut-off value 1.8%). The formula microcytic red cells minus hypochromic red cells was very accurate in differentiating iron deficiency anemia and heterozygous β thalassemia (area under curve=0.977; 95% confidence interval: 0.950-1.005; with sensitivity of 96.2%, and specificity of 92.7%; cut-off value 13.8). The indices related to red cells and reticulocytes have a moderate performance in identifying absolute iron deficiency in patients with anemia of chronic disease.

Relationship Between Aerobic And Anaerobic Parameters From 3-minute All-out Tethered Swimming And 400-m Maximal Front Crawl Effort.

The main aim of this investigation was to verify the relationship of the variables measured during a 3-minute all-out test with aerobic (i.e., peak oxygen uptake [(Equation is included in full-text article.)] and intensity corresponding to the lactate minimum [LMI]) and anaerobic parameters (i.e., anaerobic work) measured during a 400-m maximal performance. To measure force continually and to avoid the possible influences caused by turns, the 3-minute all-out effort was performed in tethered swimming. Thirty swimmers performed the following tests: (a) a 3-minute all-out tethered swimming test to determine the final force (equivalent to critical force: CF3-MIN) and the work performed above CF3-MIN (W'3-MIN), (b) a LMI protocol to determine the LMI during front crawl swimming, and (c) a 400-m maximal test to determine the (Equation is included in full-text article.)and total anaerobic contribution (WANA). Correlations between the variables were tested using the Pearson's correlation test (p ≤ 0.05). CF3-MIN (73.9 ± 13.2 N) presented a high correlation with the LMI (1.33 ± 0.08 m·s; p = 0.01) and (Equation is included in full-text article.)(4.5 ± 1.2 L·min; p = 0.01). However, the W'3-MIN (1,943.2 ± 719.2 N·s) was only moderately correlated with LMI (p = 0.02) and (Equation is included in full-text article.)(p = 0.01). In summary, CF3-MIN determined during the 3-minute all-out effort is associated with oxidative metabolism and can be used to estimate the aerobic capacity of swimmers. In contrast, the anaerobic component of this model (W'3-MIN) is not correlated with WANA.

Reference Values For High-density Lipoprotein Particle Size And Volume By Dynamic Light Scattering In A Brazilian Population Sample And Their Relationships With Metabolic Parameters.

Current data indicate that the size of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) may be considered an important marker for cardiovascular disease risk. We established reference values of mean HDL size and volume in an asymptomatic representative Brazilian population sample (n=590) and their associations with metabolic parameters by gender. Size and volume were determined in HDL isolated from plasma by polyethyleneglycol precipitation of apoB-containing lipoproteins and measured using the dynamic light scattering (DLS) technique. Although the gender and age distributions agreed with other studies, the mean HDL size reference value was slightly lower than in some other populations. Both HDL size and volume were influenced by gender and varied according to age. HDL size was associated with age and HDL-C (total population); non- white ethnicity and CETP inversely (females); HDL-C and PLTP mass (males). On the other hand, HDL volume was determined only by HDL-C (total population and in both genders) and by PLTP mass (males). The reference values for mean HDL size and volume using the DLS technique were established in an asymptomatic and representative Brazilian population sample, as well as their related metabolic factors. HDL-C was a major determinant of HDL size and volume, which were differently modulated in females and in males.

Sensitivity and specificity of machine learning classifiers for glaucoma diagnosis using Spectral Domain OCT and standard automated perimetry

PURPOSE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of machine learning classifiers (MLCs) for glaucoma diagnosis using Spectral Domain OCT (SD-OCT) and standard automated perimetry (SAP). METHODS: Observational cross-sectional study. Sixty two glaucoma patients and 48 healthy individuals were included. All patients underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination, achromatic standard automated perimetry (SAP) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) imaging with SD-OCT (Cirrus HD-OCT; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc., Dublin, California). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained for all SD-OCT parameters and global indices of SAP. Subsequently, the following MLCs were tested using parameters from the SD-OCT and SAP: Bagging (BAG), Naive-Bayes (NB), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Random Forest (RAN), Ensemble Selection (ENS), Classification Tree (CTREE), Ada Boost M1(ADA),Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) and Support Vector Machine Gaussian (SVMG). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (aROC) obtained for isolated SAP and OCT parameters were compared with MLCs using OCT+SAP data. RESULTS: Combining OCT and SAP data, MLCs' aROCs varied from 0.777(CTREE) to 0.946 (RAN).The best OCT+SAP aROC obtained with RAN (0.946) was significantly larger the best single OCT parameter (p<0.05), but was not significantly different from the aROC obtained with the best single SAP parameter (p=0.19). CONCLUSION: Machine learning classifiers trained on OCT and SAP data can successfully discriminate between healthy and glaucomatous eyes. The combination of OCT and SAP measurements improved the diagnostic accuracy compared with OCT data alone.

Efeitos da ingestão de cafeína Em exercício aeróbio de alta intensidade em hipóxia : parâmetros fisiológicos e perceptuais = Effects of caffeine ingestion on high-intensity aerobic exercise in hypoxia : physiological and perceptual parameters

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Monitoramento de parâmetros imunológicos em atletas adolescentes de basquetebol durante e após a temporada esportiva= : Monitoring of immunological parameters in adolescent basketball athletes during and after a sports season

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Análise transversal da estrutura óssea e parâmetros hematológicos em futebolistas profissionais = : Cross-sectional analysis of bone structure and hematological parameters in professional soccer players

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

Comparison of periodontal parameters in individuals with syndromic craniosynostosis

Craniosynostosis syndromes are characterized by premature closure of one or more cranial sutures, associated with other malformations, the most frequent of which are the Crouzon and Apert syndromes. Few studies in the literature have addressed the oral health of these individuals. The purpose of this study was to compare the periodontal status of individuals with Apert, Crouzon, Pfeiffer and Saethre-Chotzen syndromes before toothbrushing and compare the efficiency of plaque removal before and after mechanical toothbrushing. The probing depth, plaque index (according to Löe and O'Leary), clinical attachment level, gingival index (according to Silness and Löe) and amount of keratinized mucosa were evaluated before toothbrushing, and the O'Leary plaque index was assessed before and immediately after toothbrushing, on the same day, in 27 individuals aged 11 to 36 years. There was statistically significant difference in the mean probing depth and clinical attachment level among regions (p=0.00; p=0.01, respectively). The gingival index did not reveal statistically significant differences. With regard to the plaque index, the left region exhibited higher plaque index values than the right and anterior regions. No significant results were found in the analysis of keratinized mucosa. Comparison of the O'Leary plaque index before and after toothbrushing revealed statistically significant difference for all syndromes except for the Pfeiffer syndrome (p<0.05). In conclusion, there was no difference in the periodontal status among individuals with syndromic craniosynostosis. The posterior region was more affected than the anterior region as to the presence of plaque, loss of insertion and probing depth. Individuals with Pfeiffer syndrome exhibited greater toothbrushing efficiency than individuals with the other craniosynostosis syndromes.