Productivity shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an estimated endogenous growth model with human capital

Employing an endogenous growth model with human capital, this paper explores how productivity shocks in the goods and human capital producing sectors contribute to explaining aggregate fluctuations in output, consumption, investment and hours. Given the importance of accounting for both the dynamics and the trends in the data not captured by the theoretical growth model, we introduce a vector error correction model (VECM) of the measurement errors and estimate the model’s posterior density function using Bayesian methods. To contextualize our findings with those in the literature, we also assess whether the endogenous growth model or the standard real business cycle model better explains the observed variation in these aggregates. In addressing these issues we contribute to both the methods of analysis and the ongoing debate regarding the effects of innovations to productivity on macroeconomic activity.

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

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Cultured primary fetal cells from one organ donation could possibly meet the exigent and stringent technical aspects for development of therapeutic products. These cell types have fewer technological limitations for cellular proliferation capacity (simple culture conditions) and maintenance of differentiated phenotype, and they also have low probability for transmission of communicable diseases. Master and Working Cell Banks (MCB, WCB) can be obtained from one fetal organ donation, permitting multiple tissues (skin, bone, cartilage, muscle and intervertebral disc) to be processed in short periods of time with identical methods to assure a stringent tracing of the processes for the production of standardized therapeutic agents. Clinical use of biologics from embryo and fetal tissues is relatively new and current legislation and ethics have some differences between countries to date. In addition, specific cell delivery systems for each tissue type can be adapted to the clinical application. Since it is the intention that banked primary fetal cells enhance the prospective treatment of hundreds of thousands of patients with only one organ donation, it is imperative to show consistency, traceability and safety of the processes including donor tissue selection, cell banking, cell testing and growth of cells in out-scaling for the preparation of bio-engineered products for clinical application.

An Introduction to parametric and non-parametric models for bivariate positive insurance claim severity distributions

We present a real data set of claims amounts where costs related to damage are recorded separately from those related to medical expenses. Only claims with positive costs are considered here. Two approaches to density estimation are presented: a classical parametric and a semi-parametric method, based on transformation kernel density estimation. We explore the data set with standard univariate methods. We also propose ways to select the bandwidth and transformation parameters in the univariate case based on Bayesian methods. We indicate how to compare the results of alternative methods both looking at the shape of the overall density domain and exploring the density estimates in the right tail.

Large multi-gene phylogenetic trees of the grasses (Poaceae): progress towards complete tribal and generic level sampling.

In this paper we included a very broad representation of grass family diversity (84% of tribes and 42% of genera). Phylogenetic inference was based on three plastid DNA regions rbcL, matK and trnL-F, using maximum parsimony and Bayesian methods. Our results resolved most of the subfamily relationships within the major clades (BEP and PACCMAD), which had previously been unclear, such as, among others the: (i) BEP and PACCMAD sister relationship, (ii) composition of clades and the sister-relationship of Ehrhartoideae and Bambusoideae + Pooideae, (iii) paraphyly of tribe Bambuseae, (iv) position of Gynerium as sister to Panicoideae, (v) phylogenetic position of Micrairoideae. With the presence of a relatively large amount of missing data, we were able to increase taxon sampling substantially in our analyses from 107 to 295 taxa. However, bootstrap support and to a lesser extent Bayesian inference posterior probabilities were generally lower in analyses involving missing data than those not including them. We produced a fully resolved phylogenetic summary tree for the grass family at subfamily level and indicated the most likely relationships of all included tribes in our analysis.

Effects of ciliary muscle plasmid electrotransfer of TNF-alpha soluble receptor variants in experimental uveitis.

Intraocular inflammation has been recognized as a major factor leading to blindness. Because tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) enhances intraocular cytotoxic events, systemic anti-TNF therapies have been introduced in the treatment of severe intraocular inflammation, but frequent re-injections are needed and are associated with severe side effects. We have devised a local intraocular nonviral gene therapy to deliver effective and sustained anti-TNF therapy in inflamed eyes. In this study, we show that transfection of the ciliary muscle by plasmids encoding for three different variants of the p55 TNF-alpha soluble receptor, using electrotransfer, resulted in sustained intraocular secretion of the encoded proteins, without any detection in the serum. In the eye, even the shorter monomeric variant resulted in efficient neutralization of TNF-alpha in a rat experimental model of endotoxin-induced uveitis, as long as 3 months after transfection. A subsequent downregulation of interleukin (IL)-6 and iNOS and upregulation of IL-10 expression was observed together with a decreased rolling of inflammatory cells in anterior segment vessels and reduced infiltration within the ocular tissues. Our results indicate that using a nonviral gene therapy strategy, the local self-production of monomeric TNF-alpha soluble receptors induces a local immunomodulation enabling the control of intraocular inflammation.

Food Behaviours: Healthy Eating on the island of Ireland

In the past, safefood’s consumer focused reviews (CFRs) have focused on key food chains including chicken, finfish, fruit and vegetables, milk, beef and pork. The reviews aimed to address consumer concerns surrounding food safety, production methods and nutritional issues related to key foods, with a view to communicating directly to consumers on those issues. More recently, there has been a shift in emphasis by safefood to address broader issues of consumer concern, such as food origin. The aim of the current CFR is different from previous reports. Instead of addressing key consumer food concerns, it focuses on understanding consumer food behaviour. Its primary aim is to inform the research, policies and practices of all those working towards changing consumer food safety and dietary behaviour on the island of Ireland and to ensure that communication with consumers is both evidence-based and effective.

Response to methylphenidate by adult and pediatric patients with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: the Spanish multicenter DIHANA study.

BACKGROUND The purpose of this multicenter Spanish study was to evaluate the response to immediate-release methylphenidate by children and adults diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), as well as to obtain information on current therapy patterns and safety characteristics. METHODS This multicenter, observational, retrospective, noninterventional study included 730 patients aged 4-65 years with a diagnosis of ADHD. Information was obtained based on a review of medical records for the years 2002-2006 in sequential order. RESULTS The ADHD predominantly inattentive subtype affected 29.7% of patients, ADHD predominantly hyperactive-impulsive was found in 5.2%, and the combined subtype in 65.1%. Overall, a significant lower Clinical Global Impression (CGI) score and mean number of DSM-IV TR (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders Fourth Edition, Text Revision) symptoms by subtype were found after one year of treatment with immediate-release methylphenidate; CGI decreased from 4.51 to 1.69, symptoms of inattention from 7.90 to 4.34, symptoms of hyperactivity from 6.73 to 3.39, and combined subtype symptoms from 14.62 to 7.7. Satisfaction with immediate-release methylphenidate after one year was evaluated as "very satisfied" or "satisfied" by 86.90% of the sample; 25.75% of all patients reported at least one adverse effect. At the end of the study, 41.47% of all the patients treated with immediate-release methylphenidate were still receiving it, with a mean time of 3.80 years on therapy. CONCLUSION Good efficacy and safety results were found for immediate-release methylphenidate in patients with ADHD.

Development of In-Situ Detection Methods for Materials-Related Distress (MRD) in Concrete Pavements, July 2003

The purpose of this research was to summarize existing nondestructive test methods that have the potential to be used to detect materials-related distress (MRD) in concrete pavements. The various nondestructive test methods were then subjected to selection criteria that helped to reduce the size of the list so that specific techniques could be investigated in more detail. The main test methods that were determined to be applicable to this study included two stress-wave propagation techniques (impact-echo and spectral analysis of surface waves techniques), infrared thermography, ground penetrating radar (GPR), and visual inspection. The GPR technique was selected for a preliminary round of “proof of concept” trials. GPR surveys were carried out over a variety of portland cement concrete pavements for this study using two different systems. One of the systems was a state-of-the-art GPR system that allowed data to be collected at highway speeds. The other system was a less sophisticated system that was commercially available. Surveys conducted with both sets of equipment have produced test results capable of identifying subsurface distress in two of the three sites that exhibited internal cracking due to MRD. Both systems failed to detect distress in a single pavement that exhibited extensive cracking. Both systems correctly indicated that the control pavement exhibited negligible evidence of distress. The initial positive results presented here indicate that a more thorough study (incorporating refinements to the system, data collection, and analysis) is needed. Improvements in the results will be dependent upon defining the optimum number and arrangement of GPR antennas to detect the most common problems in Iowa pavements. In addition, refining highfrequency antenna response characteristics will be a crucial step toward providing an optimum GPR system for detecting materialsrelated distress.

Panel index VAR models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators

This paper proposes a method to conduct inference in panel VAR models with cross unit interdependencies and time variations in the coefficients. The approach can be used to obtain multi-unit forecasts and leading indicators and to conduct policy analysis in a multiunit setups. The framework of analysis is Bayesian and MCMC methods are used to estimate the posterior distribution of the features of interest. The model is reparametrized to resemble an observable index model and specification searches are discussed. As an example, we construct leading indicators for inflation and GDP growth in the Euro area using G-7 information.

Policy and the Evolution of the US Economy: 1948-2002

This paper investigates the relationship between monetary policy and the changes experienced by the US economy using a small scale New-Keynesian model. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques and the stability of policy parameter estimates and of the transmission of policy shocks examined. The model fits well the data and produces forecasts comparable or superior to those of alternative specifications. The parameters of the policy rule, the variance and the transmission of policy shocks have been remarkably stable. The parameters of the Phillips curve and of the Euler equations are varying.

Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets upa model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market togetherwith standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of theeconomy more efficiently, while taking into account that its own actions influencewhat it observes. The timeliness of bond market data allows for quicker responsesof monetary policy to disturbances compared to the case when the central bankhas to rely solely on collected aggregate data. The information content of theterm structure creates a link between the bond market and the macroeconomythat is novel to the literature. To quantify the importance of the bond market asa source of information, the model is estimated on data for the United Statesand Australia using Bayesian methods. The empirical exercise suggests that thereis some information in the US term structure that helps the Federal Reserve toidentify shocks to the economy on a timely basis. Australian bond prices seemto be less informative than their US counterparts, perhaps because Australia is arelatively small and open economy.

The dynamics of US inflation: Can monetary policy explain the changes?

We investigate the relationship between monetary policy and inflation dynamics in theUS using a medium scale structural model. The specification is estimated with Bayesiantechniques and fits the data reasonably well. Policy shocks account for a part of the declinein inflation volatility; they have been less effective in triggering inflation responses overtime and qualitatively account for the rise and fall in the level of inflation. A number ofstructural parameter variations contribute to these patterns.