Ostrich egg-shell cups of Mesopotamia and the ostrich in ancient and modern times / by Berthold Laufer. 9 plates and 10 text-figures.

no.23(1926)

Not all university degrees yield the same return: private and social returns to higher education for males in Spain

In this paper we use micro data from the Spanish Family Expenditure Survey for 1990 to estimate, for the first time, the private and social rates of return of different university degrees in Spain. We compute internal rates of return and include investment on higher education financed by the public purse to estimate social rates of return. Our main finding is that, as presumed, there is large heterogeneity in rates of return amongst different university

Interleukin- 2 production during murine infection by Leishmania mexicana amazonensis

Highly susceptible BALB/c mice, resistant C57B1/6 and their F1 progeny (BDF1) were infected subcutaneously in the foot pad with Leishmania mexicana amazonenesis. At various times after infection, spleen or draining popliteal lymph node cells were assayed for their capacity to generate Interleukin-2 (I1-2) by Concanavalin A (ConA) stimulation. In both BALB/c and C57B1/6 strains there was a transient increase in their capacity to produce I1-2, from the 3rd to the 10th week post-infection. Return to pre-infection levels ocurred between 13th to 16th week post-infection in all three strains. BALB/c mice always produced higher titers of 11-2 than C57B1/6, but such differences were statistically significant only at 3 and 10 weeks post-infection. BDF1 mice had titers similar to those observed in BALB/c mice. I1-2 production by ConA-stimulated lymph node cells was lower as compared to the spleen, but with a similar pattern among the three mice strains. Our data show that susceptibility to infection by l. mexicana amazonenesis is not associated with deficient ConA-stimulated I1-2 production.

Optimized venous return with a self-expanding cannula: from computational fluid dynamics to clinical application.

The Smart canula concept allows for collapsed cannula insertion, and self-expansion within a vein of the body. (A) Computational fluid dynamics, and (B) bovine experiments (76+/-3.8 kg) were performed for comparative analyses, prior to (C) the first clinical application. For an 18F access, a given flow of 4 l/min (A) resulted in a pressure drop of 49 mmHg for smart cannula versus 140 mmHg for control. The corresponding Reynolds numbers are 680 versus 1170, respectively. (B) For an access of 28F, the maximal flow for smart cannula was 5.8+/-0.5 l/min versus 4.0+/-0.1 l/min for standard (P<0.0001), for 24F 5.5+/-0.6 l/min versus 3.2+/-0.4 l/min (P<0.0001), and for 20F 4.1+/-0.3 l/min versus 1.6+/-0.3 l/min (P<0.0001). The flow obtained with the smart cannula was 270+/-45% (20F), 172+/-26% (24F), and 134+/-13% (28F) of standard (one-way ANOVA, P=0.014). (C) First clinical application (1.42 m2) with a smart cannula showed 3.55 l/min (100% predicted) without additional fluids. All three assessment steps confirm the superior performance of the smart cannula design.

Structure du temps de travail des infirmières de santé publique: effets de l'âge des patients, de la nature des prestations fournies et du lieu du contact. [Structure of work times of public health nurses: effect of the age of patients, nature of care given and location of contact].

In the framework of health services research sponsored by the Swiss National Science Foundation, a research was undertaken of the activity of the large majority of the public health nurses working in the Swiss cantons of Vaud and Fribourg (total population 700,000). During one week, 130 nurses gathered, with a specially devised instrument, data on 4165 patient visits. Studying the duration of the contacts, one has distinguished contact duration per se (DC), duration of the travel time preceding the contact (DD), and total duration in relation with the contact (DTC-addition of the first two). It was noted that the three durations increased significantly with patient age (as regard travel time, this is explained by the higher proportion of home visits in higher age groups, as compared with visits at a health center). Examined according to location of the visit, contact duration per se (without travel) is higher for visits at home and in nursing homes than for those taking place at a health center. Looked at in respect to the care given (technical care, or basic nursing care, or both simultaneously), our data show that the provision of basic nursing care (alone or with technical care) doubles contact duration (from 20 to 42-45'). The analyses according to patient age shows that, at an advanced age (beyond 80 years particularly), there is an important increase of the visits where both types of care are given. However, contact duration per se shows a significant raise with age only for the group "technical care only"; it can be demonstrated that this is due to the fact that older patients require more complex technical acts (e.g., bladder care, as compared with simpler acts such as injection). A model of the relationships between patient age and contact duration is proposed: it is because of the increase in the proportions of home visits, of visits including basic nursing care, and of more complex technical acts that older persons require more of the working time of public health nurses.

Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.

Monetary Policy in Times of Financial Stress.

Some studies argue that the Fed reacts to financial market developments. Using data covering the period 1985:Q1 - 2008:Q4 and employing an augmented Taylor rule specification, we re-examine that conjecture. We find that evidence in favour of such a reaction is largely driven by the Fed’s behaviour during the 2007-2008 financial crisis.

Allergic asthma to thaumatin : case report

Background: Thaumatin is a protein originally isolated from an African fruit (the "katemfe"), but various thaumatin-like proteins have been found in apples, grapes, kiwis and olives, etc. Thaumatin has natural sweetening properties and is about 2000 to 3000 times more potent than sucrose. It is therefore used in the food industry, particularly in the processing of low-calories sweeteners. Recently, thaumatin-like proteins have been described as a new family of allergens. Methods: We report the case of a 44-year-old woman occupationally exposed to thaumatin, who developed an allergy to it. The first symptom was an urticaria, which she presented two years after the factory she was working in (a sweeteners manufacturer), started to use thaumatin. Later on, she perceived an acute episode of a sensation of lump in the throat, persisting mild dyspnea, dysphonia and cough. Despite normal peak flow values and a normal chest examination, her general practitioner treated her with local corticoids and systemic antihistaminic drugs, which improved the symptoms. As occupational physicians, we were asked about the likelihood of an occupational disease. We visited her working place, and assessed the exposure to thaumatin. We concluded that the probability for a delayed asthma related to a thaumatin exposure was high, despite the lack of an exposure test. Results: The case was submitted to the insurance company as an occupational disease, and was accepted as such. It was therefore decided not to perform the exposure test, given the absence of true benefit for the patient, who was advised to switch job, and to avoid any exposure to thaumatin in the future. A few months later, the symptoms had completely disappeared. Conclusion: Some molecules only used in specific industry sectors, can cause health problems, such as allergy, but also toxic impairments, etc. The occupational physician, trained to find out which products and identify which molecules are involved, can contribute to the diagnosis, and help make possible a safe return to work for the patient.

Assessing the quality of alternative energy sources: Energy Return On the Investment (EROI), the metabolic pattern of societies and energy statistics

This paper presents an initial challenge to tackle the every so "tricky" points encountered when dealing with energy accounting, and thereafter illustrates how such a system of accounting can be used when assessing for the metabolic changes in societies. The paper is divided in four main sections. The first three, present a general discussion on the main issues encountered when conducting energy analyses. The last section, subsequently, combines this heuristic approach to the actual formalization of it, in quantitative terms, for the analysis of possible energy scenarios. Section one covers the broader issue of how to account for the relevant categories used when accounting for Joules of energy; emphasizing on the clear distinction between Primary Energy Sources (PES) (which are the physical exploited entities that are used to derive useable energy forms (energy carriers)) and Energy Carriers (EC) (the actual useful energy that is transmitted for the appropriate end uses within a society). Section two sheds light on the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Here, it is emphasized that, there must already be a certain amount of energy carriers available to be able to extract/exploit Primary Energy Sources to thereafter generate a net supply of energy carriers. It is pointed out that this current trend of intense energy supply has only been possible to the great use and dependence on fossil energy. Section three follows up on the discussion of EROI, indicating that a single numeric indicator such as an output/input ratio is not sufficient in assessing for the performance of energetic systems. Rather an integrated approach that incorporates (i) how big the net supply of Joules of EC can be, given an amount of extracted PES (the external constraints); (ii) how much EC needs to be invested to extract an amount of PES; and (iii) the power level that it takes for both processes to succeed, is underlined. Section four, ultimately, puts the theoretical concepts at play, assessing for how the metabolic performances of societies can be accounted for within this analytical framework.

Bringing actors and violent conflict into forced migration literature. A model of the decision to return

Populations displaced as a result of mass violent conflict have become one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns of the last decades. They have also become one salient political issue as a perceived burden (in economic and security terms) and as an important piece in the shift towards a more interventionist paradigm in the international system, based on both humanitarian and security grounds. The saliency of these aspects has detracted attention from the analysis of the interactions between relocation processes and violent conflict. Violent conflict studies have also largely ignored those interactions as a result of the consideration of these processes as mere reaction movements determined by structural conditions. This article takes the view that individual’s agency is retained during such processes, and that it is consequential, calling for the need to introduce a micro perspective. Based on this, a model for the individual’s decision of return is presented. The model has the potential to account for the dynamics of return at both the individual and the aggregate level. And it further helps to grasp fundamental interconnections with violent conflict. Some relevant conclusions are derived for the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina and about the implications of the politicization of return.

MR spectroscopy of the human brain with enhanced signal intensity at ultrashort echo times on a clinical platform at 3T and 7T.

Recently, the spin-echo full-intensity acquired localized (SPECIAL) spectroscopy technique was proposed to unite the advantages of short TEs on the order of milliseconds (ms) with full sensitivity and applied to in vivo rat brain. In the present study, SPECIAL was adapted and optimized for use on a clinical platform at 3T and 7T by combining interleaved water suppression (WS) and outer volume saturation (OVS), optimized sequence timing, and improved shimming using FASTMAP. High-quality single voxel spectra of human brain were acquired at TEs below or equal to 6 ms on a clinical 3T and 7T system for six volunteers. Narrow linewidths (6.6 +/- 0.6 Hz at 3T and 12.1 +/- 1.0 Hz at 7T for water) and the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the artifact-free spectra enabled the quantification of a neurochemical profile consisting of 18 metabolites with Cramér-Rao lower bounds (CRLBs) below 20% at both field strengths. The enhanced sensitivity and increased spectral resolution at 7T compared to 3T allowed a two-fold reduction in scan time, an increased precision of quantification for 12 metabolites, and the additional quantification of lactate with CRLB below 20%. Improved sensitivity at 7T was also demonstrated by a 1.7-fold increase in average SNR (= peak height/root mean square [RMS]-of-noise) per unit-time.