Evaluation of Pareto/D/1/k Queue by Simulation

The finding that Pareto distributions are adequate to model Internet packet interarrival times has motivated the proposal of methods to evaluate steady-state performance measures of Pareto/D/1/k queues. Some limited analytical derivation for queue models has been proposed in the literature, but their solutions are often of a great mathematical challenge. To overcome such limitations, simulation tools that can deal with general queueing system must be developed. Despite certain limitations, simulation algorithms provide a mechanism to obtain insight and good numerical approximation to parameters of queues. In this work, we give an overview of some of these methods and compare them with our simulation approach, which are suited to solve queues with Generalized-Pareto interarrival time distributions. The paper discusses the properties and use of the Pareto distribution. We propose a real time trace simulation model for estimating the steady-state probability showing the tail-raising effect, loss probability, delay of the Pareto/D/1/k queue and make a comparison with M/D/1/k. The background on Internet traffic will help to do the evaluation correctly. This model can be used to study the long- tailed queueing systems. We close the paper with some general comments and offer thoughts about future work.

Randomized Push-Out Mechanisms in Priority Queuing and their Probability Characteristics

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K25.

Single-Server Queueing System with Markov-Modulated Arrivals and Service Times

Key words: Markov-modulated queues, waiting time, heavy traffic.

Better queue management in a busy public hospital of a developing country without appointment system::an application using data envelopment analysis

Queuing is a key efficiency criterion in any service industry, including Healthcare. Almost all queue management studies are dedicated to improving an existing Appointment System. In developing countries such as Pakistan, there are no Appointment Systems for outpatients, resulting in excessive wait times. Additionally, excessive overloading, limited resources and cumbersome procedures lead to over-whelming queues. Despite numerous Healthcare applications, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has not been applied for queue assessment. The current study aims to extend DEA modelling and demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the queue system of a busy public hospital in a developing country, Pakistan, where all outpatients are walk-in; along with construction of a dynamic framework dedicated towards the implementation of the model. The inadequate allocation of doctors/personnel was observed as the most critical issue for long queues. Hence, the Queuing-DEA model has been developed such that it determines the ‘required’ number of doctors/personnel. The results indicated that given extensive wait times or length of queue, or both, led to high target values for doctors/personnel. Hence, this crucial information allows the administrators to ensure optimal staff utilization and controlling the queue pre-emptively, minimizing wait times. The dynamic framework constructed, specifically targets practical implementation of the Queuing-DEA model in resource-poor public hospitals of developing countries such as Pakistan; to continuously monitor rapidly changing queue situation and display latest required personnel. Consequently, the wait times of subsequent patients can be minimized, along with dynamic staff scheduling in the absence of appointments. This dynamic framework has been designed in Excel, requiring minimal training and work for users and automatic update features, with complex technical aspects running in the background. The proposed model and the dynamic framework has the potential to be applied in similar public hospitals, even in other developing countries, where appointment systems for outpatients are non-existent.

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

A computer simulation model for single -lane roundabouts

During the past three decades, the use of roundabouts has increased throughout the world due to their greater benefits in comparison with intersections controlled by traditional means. Roundabouts are often chosen because they are widely associated with low accident rates, lower construction and operating costs, and reasonable capacities and delay. ^ In the planning and design of roundabouts, special attention should be given to the movement of pedestrians and bicycles. As a result, there are several guidelines for the design of pedestrian and bicycle treatments at roundabouts that increase the safety of both pedestrians and bicyclists at existing and proposed roundabout locations. Different design guidelines have differing criteria for handling pedestrians and bicyclists at roundabout locations. Although all of the investigated guidelines provide better safety (depending on the traffic conditions at a specific location), their effects on the performance of the roundabout have not been examined yet. ^ Existing roundabout analysis software packages provide estimates of capacity and performance characteristics. This includes characteristics such as delay, queue lengths, stop rates, effects of heavy vehicles, crash frequencies, and geometric delays, as well as fuel consumption, pollutant emissions and operating costs for roundabouts. None of these software packages, however, are capable of determining the effects of various pedestrian crossing locations, nor the effect of different bicycle treatments on the performance of roundabouts. ^ The objective of this research is to develop simulation models capable of determining the effect of various pedestrian and bicycle treatments at single-lane roundabouts. To achieve this, four models were developed. The first model simulates a single-lane roundabout without bicycle and pedestrian traffic. The second model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and mixed flow bicyclists. The third model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a combined pedestrian and bicycle crossing, while the fourth model simulates a single-lane roundabout with a pedestrian crossing and a bicycle lane at the outer perimeter of the roundabout for the bicycles. Traffic data was collected at a modern roundabout in Boca Raton, Florida. ^ The results of this effort show that installing a pedestrian crossing on the roundabout approach will have a negative impact on the entry flow, while the downstream approach will benefit from the newly created gaps by pedestrians. Also, it was concluded that a bicycle lane configuration is more beneficial for all users of the roundabout instead of the mixed flow or combined crossing. Installing the pedestrian crossing at one-car length is more beneficial for pedestrians than two- and three-car lengths. Finally, it was concluded that the effect of the pedestrian crossing on the vehicle queues diminishes as the distance between the crossing and the roundabout increases. ^

Analytical Approximations to Predict Performance Measures of Manufacturing Systems with Job Failures and Parallel Processing

Parallel processing is prevalent in many manufacturing and service systems. Many manufactured products are built and assembled from several components fabricated in parallel lines. An example of this manufacturing system configuration is observed at a manufacturing facility equipped to assemble and test web servers. Characteristics of a typical web server assembly line are: multiple products, job circulation, and paralleling processing. The primary objective of this research was to develop analytical approximations to predict performance measures of manufacturing systems with job failures and parallel processing. The analytical formulations extend previous queueing models used in assembly manufacturing systems in that they can handle serial and different configurations of paralleling processing with multiple product classes, and job circulation due to random part failures. In addition, appropriate correction terms via regression analysis were added to the approximations in order to minimize the gap in the error between the analytical approximation and the simulation models. Markovian and general type manufacturing systems, with multiple product classes, job circulation due to failures, and fork and join systems to model parallel processing were studied. In the Markovian and general case, the approximations without correction terms performed quite well for one and two product problem instances. However, it was observed that the flow time error increased as the number of products and net traffic intensity increased. Therefore, correction terms for single and fork-join stations were developed via regression analysis to deal with more than two products. The numerical comparisons showed that the approximations perform remarkably well when the corrections factors were used in the approximations. In general, the average flow time error was reduced from 38.19% to 5.59% in the Markovian case, and from 26.39% to 7.23% in the general case. All the equations stated in the analytical formulations were implemented as a set of Matlab scripts. By using this set, operations managers of web server assembly lines, manufacturing or other service systems with similar characteristics can estimate different system performance measures, and make judicious decisions - especially setting delivery due dates, capacity planning, and bottleneck mitigation, among others.

The impact of time limitation: insights from a queueing experiment

We experimentally explore the effects of time limitation on decision making. Under different time allowance conditions, subjects are presented with a queueing situation and asked to join one of the two given queues. The results can be grouped under two main categories. The first one concerns the factors driving decisions in a queueing system. Only some subjects behave consistently with rationality principles and use the relevant information efficiently. The rest of the subjects seem to adopt a simpler strategy that does not incorporate some information into their decision. The second category is related to the effects of time limitation on decision performance. A substantial proportion of the population is not affected by time limitations and shows consistent behavior throughout the treatments. On the other hand, some subjects’ performance is impaired by time limitations. More importantly, this impairment is not due to the stringency of the limitation but rather to being exposed to a time constraint.

Markets, Depots and Sales Tables: The Women's Institute's Rural Retailing

In 1917 the Coventry Evening Telegraph noted that the problems of ‘surplus garden produce’ had arisen and that ‘smallholders were being encouraged to group together in order to bring their supplies in quantity to market. Women’s Institutes have been formed, and these arrange for the opening of a market for a certain number of hours one day a week’. WIs, which had begun being formed under the auspices of the Agricultural Organisation Society from 1915 could be seen to be one of the earliest examples of Farmers Markets. These rural women were to improve the food supply in wartime when there was a food crisis; shortages, queues, price rises and in 1918 the introduction of rationing. The WIs encouraged food saving and preservation their markets enabled small holders, cottage gardeners and allotment holders to find a financial non- exploitive outlet for their produce. Markets and retail outlets developed in a number of towns or even cities in rural areas: Worcester, Leamington Spa and Lichfield and in post-war Britain depot trading centres were set up in some county towns Maidstone in Kent in 1919, Winchester in 1920. Between them they provided rural women with a retail space initially for their garden produce and then in time for the preserves, baking and craftwork. Jam, cakes, toys, knitted toys and garments even a wedding trousseau were ordered or sold through these retail outlets. The Markets were not restricted to WI members and often sold work produced by small­holders, the disabled and ex-servicemen. Membership required buying at least one share; as they were a co-operative venture there was a limit on the number of shares it was possible to purchase. Sales tables at some monthly WI meeting provided yet another retail outlet for rural women. This paper will explore the significance of these retail opportunities to rural women: as a chance to earn much needed cash, in placing a value on domestic labour and as an indication that when looking at rural women’s lives, in first half of the twentieth century, divisions between being consumers and producers of food and domestic products may be more fluid than it is something assumed.

Balanceamento de linhas de montagem e aplicação de ferramentas Lean no contexto da Polisport

Cada vez mais, nos dias que correm, está presente em todas as organizações a metodologia lean, que assenta numa base de melhoria contínua, de forma a responder às necessidades do mercado e à satisfação do cliente, tendo como principal finalidade a criação de valor para o produto e a eliminação de desperdícios inerente aos processos de produção do mesmo. Um elemento essencial na gestão de qualquer organização com ênfase nos resultados é o uso de indicadores de desempenho no processo de tomada de decisão. Este projeto teve como objetivo principal a identificação e eliminação de desperdícios, melhorando os processos de montagem, através do estudo dos tempos de ciclo dos centros de trabalhos/produtos mais críticos, procedendo a um balanceamento adequado e posterior simulação dos resultados através do software Arena. Posteriormente foram analisados os resultados assim como o impacto que essas mudanças causaram na empresa, com base na implementação de ferramentas de melhoria, nomeadamente ferramentas lean. Essas mudanças tiveram um impacto positivo na produção final das cadeiras e dos porta-bebés, no que diz respeito à diminuição de filas de espera entre postos, diminuição dos tempos de processamento e aumento da produção para alguns dos modelos em estudo.

DEVELOPMENT OF A DECISION/DEPLOYMENT SUPPORT TOOL FOR VARIABLE SPEED LIMITS IN RECURRENT CONGESTION

Traffic demand increases are pushing aging ground transportation infrastructures to their theoretical capacity. The result of this demand is traffic bottlenecks that are a major cause of delay on urban freeways. In addition, the queues associated with those bottlenecks increase the probability of a crash while adversely affecting environmental measures such as emissions and fuel consumption. With limited resources available for network expansion, traffic professionals have developed active traffic management systems (ATMS) in an attempt to mitigate the negative consequences of traffic bottlenecks. Among these ATMS strategies, variable speed limits (VSL) and ramp metering (RM) have been gaining international interests for their potential to improve safety, mobility, and environmental measures at freeway bottlenecks. Though previous studies have shown the tremendous potential of variable speed limit (VSL) and VSL paired with ramp metering (VSLRM) control, little guidance has been developed to assist decision makers in the planning phase of a congestion mitigation project that is considering VSL or VSLRM control. To address this need, this study has developed a comprehensive decision/deployment support tool for the application of VSL and VSLRM control in recurrently congested environments. The decision tool will assist practitioners in deciding the most appropriate control strategy at a candidate site, which candidate sites have the most potential to benefit from the suggested control strategy, and how to most effectively design the field deployment of the suggested control strategy at each implementation site. To do so, the tool is comprised of three key modules, (1) Decision Module, (2) Benefits Module, and (3) Deployment Guidelines Module. Each module uses commonly known traffic flow and geometric parameters as inputs to statistical models and empirically based procedures to provide guidance on the application of VSL and VSLRM at each candidate site. These models and procedures were developed from the outputs of simulated experiments, calibrated with field data. To demonstrate the application of the tool, a list of real-world candidate sites were selected from the Maryland State Highway Administration Mobility Report. Here, field data from each candidate site was input into the tool to illustrate the step-by-step process required for efficient planning of VSL or VSLRM control. The output of the tool includes the suggested control system at each site, a ranking of the sites based on the expected benefit-to-cost ratio, and guidelines on how to deploy the VSL signs, ramp meters, and detectors at the deployment site(s). This research has the potential to assist traffic engineers in the planning of VSL and VSLRM control, thus enhancing the procedure for allocating limited resources for mobility and safety improvements on highways plagued by recurrent congestion.

A discrete-time queueing system with feedback and optional service

Queueing systems constitute a central tool in modeling and performance analysis. These types of systems are in our everyday life activities, and the theory of queueing systems was developed to provide models for forecasting behaviors of systems subject to random demand. The practical and useful applications of the discrete-time queues make the researchers to con- tinue making an e ort in analyzing this type of models. Thus the present contribution relates to a discrete-time Geo/G/1 queue in which some messages may need a second service time in addition to the rst essential service. In day-to-day life, there are numerous examples of queueing situations in general, for example, in manufacturing processes, telecommunication, home automation, etc, but in this paper a particular application is the use of video surveil- lance with intrusion recognition where all the arriving messages require the main service and only some may require the subsidiary service provided by the server with di erent types of strategies. We carry out a thorough study of the model, deriving analytical results for the stationary distribution. The generating functions of the number of messages in the queue and in the system are obtained. The generating functions of the busy period as well as the sojourn times of a message in the server, the queue and the system are also provided.

Régulation du transcriptome codant et non-codant chez Schizosaccharomyces pombe: facteurs et mécanismes impliqués dans la maturation 3’ des ARNs et la terminaison de la transcription

La synthèse d’un ARNm eucaryotique dépend d’une suite d’étapes qui inclut notamment l’ajout d’une queue poly(A) à son extrémité 3’. Au noyau, la queue poly(A) des ARNms est liée par PABPN1 (poly(A)-binding protein nuclear 1). PABPN1 fut notamment caractérisée, d’après des études in vitro, pour stimuler la réaction de polyadénylation en plus de contrôler la taille ultime des queues poly(A). Cela dit, la ou les fonction(s) biologique(s) de PABPN1 est/sont cependant largement méconnue(s). Chez Schizosaccharomyces pombe (S. pombe), Pab2 est l’orthologue présumé de PABPN1. Or, mes travaux indiquent que Pab2 est fonctionnellement différente de PABPN1 à l’égard de son rôle sur le processus général de polyadénylation. Ainsi, in vivo, l’absence de Pab2 entraîne l’expression et l’accumulation d’un groupe limité d’ARNs hyperadénylés parmi lesquels se trouvent de nombreux petits ARNs nucléolaires non-codants (snoRNAs) lesquels constituent normalement un groupe abondant d’ARN poly(A)-. Mes résultats supportent ainsi un mécanisme par lequel des snoRNAs immatures poly(A)+, sont convertis en une forme mature poly(A)- par le biais de Pab2 et de l’activité 3’-->5’ exoribonucléase de l’exosome à ARN. Ces observations sont inusitées dans la mesure où elles associent une fonction pour une PABP dans la maturation d'ARNs non-codants, contrairement à la notion que les PABPs travaillent exclusivement au niveau des ARNms, en plus de procurer une nouvelle perspective face au mécanisme de recrutement de l'exosome à ARN à des substrats poly(A)+. La formation de l’extrémité 3’ d’un ARN est un processus étroitement lié à la terminaison de sa transcription. Pour les gènes codants, la terminaison transcriptionnelle est initiée par le clivage endonucléolytique du pré-ARNm. Ce clivage génère une extrémité d’ARN 5’ libre laquelle sera ciblée par une exoribonucléase 5'-->3’ afin de mener à bien l’éviction de l’ARNPII de la matrice d’ADN (terminaison transcriptionnelle de type torpedo). Au contraire, chez Saccharomyces cerevisiae (S. cerevisiae), la majorité des gènes non-codants, incluant les snoRNAs, dépendent plutôt du complexe NNS (Nrd1/Nab3/Sen1) pour la terminaison de leur transcription. Cela dit, il est incertain si le complexe NNS est conservé chez d’autres espèces. À cet égard, mes travaux indiquent que S. pombe est dépourvu d’un mécanisme de terminaison de la transcription de type NNS. Seb1, l’orthologue présumé de Nrd1 chez S. pombe, s’associe plutôt à la machinerie de clivage et de polyadénylation et influence la sélection de site de polyadénylation à l’échelle du génome. Mes résultats supportent ainsi l’utilisation de la machinerie de maturation 3’ des ARNms comme principal vecteur de terminaison transcriptionnelle chez S. pombe et identifient Seb1 comme un facteur clé de ce processus. L’évènement transcriptionnel étant hautement complexe, des erreurs peuvent arriver de manière stochastique menant à l’accumulation d’ARNs aberrants potentiellement néfastes pour la cellule. Or, mes travaux ont mis en lumière un mécanisme de surveillance co-transcriptionnel des ARNs impliquant l’exosome à ARN et lié à la terminaison de la transcription. Pour ce faire, l’exosome à ARN promeut la terminaison transcriptionnelle via la dégradation d’une extrémité 3’ libre d’ARN devenue émergente suite au recul de l’ARNPII le long de la matrice d’ADN (phénomène de backtracking). Mes résultats supportent ainsi une terminaison de la transcription de type torpedo inversé (3'-->5’) réévaluant par la même occasion le concept voulant que la terminaison de la transcription s’effectue uniquement selon une orientation 5’-->3’. Somme toute, mes travaux de doctorat auront permis d’identifier et de caractériser plus en détail les facteurs et mécanismes impliqués dans la maturation 3’ et la terminaison de la transcription des gènes codants et non-codants chez l’organisme modèle S. pombe.