Illusory correlation in the remuneration of chief executive officers: It pays to play golf, and well

Illusory correlation refers to the use of information in decisions that is uncorrelated with the relevantcriterion. We document illusory correlation in CEO compensation decisions by demonstrating thatinformation, that is uncorrelated with corporate performance, is related to CEO compensation. We usepublicly available data from the USA for the years 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004 to examine the relationsbetween golf handicaps of CEOs and corporate performance, on the one hand, and CEO compensationand golf handicaps, on the other hand. Although we find no relation between handicap and corporateperformance, we do find a relation between handicap and CEO compensation. In short, golfers earnmore than non-golfers and pay increases with golfing ability. We relate these findings to the difficultiesof judging compensation for CEOs. To overcome this and possibly other illusory correlations inthese kinds of decisions, we recommend the use of explicit, mechanical decision rules.

Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.

The Prenatal Lausanne Trilogue Play: A New Observational Assessment Tool of the Prenatal Co-Parenting Alliance

The goal of this study is to present a new observational assessment tool, the prenatal Lausanne Trilogue Play situation (LTP). Expectant parents were asked to role play their first meeting with their baby using a doll, and the videotaped interaction was subsequently coded. Scores were correlated with measures of the couples' marital satisfaction as well as the postnatal family alliance 3 months after the baby's birth. Results showed that the prenatal co-parenting alliance was positively linked to both fathers' marital satisfaction as well as to the postnatal family alliance at 3 months. Thus, the prenatal LTP allows for assessment of the prenatal co-parenting alliance at the interactional level. It predicts the place the parents will afford their baby after birth and can contribute to methods of clinical assessment and prevention.

The application of trend surface models to the analysis of time factors in Swiss cancer mortality.

To study different temporal components on cancer mortality (age, period and cohort) methods of graphic representation were applied to Swiss mortality data from 1950 to 1984. Maps using continuous slopes ("contour maps") and based on eight tones of grey according to the absolute distribution of rates were used to represent the surfaces defined by the matrix of various age-specific rates. Further, progressively more complex regression surface equations were defined, on the basis of two independent variables (age/cohort) and a dependent one (each age-specific mortality rate). General patterns of trends in cancer mortality were thus identified, permitting definition of important cohort (e.g., upwards for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms, or downwards for stomach) or period (e.g., downwards for intestines or thyroid cancers) effects, besides the major underlying age component. For most cancer sites, even the lower order (1st to 3rd) models utilised provided excellent fitting, allowing immediate identification of the residuals (e.g., high or low mortality points) as well as estimates of first-order interactions between the three factors, although the parameters of the main effects remained still undetermined. Thus, the method should be essentially used as summary guide to illustrate and understand the general patterns of age, period and cohort effects in (cancer) mortality, although they cannot conceptually solve the inherent problem of identifiability of the three components.

Vascular endothelial growth factor and angiopoietin-2 play a major role in the pathogenesis of vascular leakage in cirrhotic rats.

Background and aims: The extent and molecular mechanisms governing plasma extravasation and formation of ascites in cirrhosis are unknown. Vascular endothelial growth factor-A (VEGF-A) and angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) are endogenous substances with powerful vascular permeability effects. We assessed regional blood flow, vascular leakage, mRNA and tissular expression of VEGF-A and Ang-2 and vascular permeability following VEGF receptor 2 blockade in control and cirrhotic rats to define the vascular territories showing altered vascular permeability in cirrhosis and to determine whether VEGF-A and Ang-2 are involved in this phenomenon. Methods: Arterial blood flow was analysed with the coloured microsphere method. Vascular leakage was measured and visualised with the dye Evan¿s Blue and colloidal carbon techniques, respectively. VEGF-A and Ang-2 expression were determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), immunohistochemistry and western blot. The effect on vascular permeability induced by VEGFR2 blockade was assessed by administration of the receptor inhibitor SU11248. Results: Arterial blood flow was increased in the mesentery, pancreas and small intestine but not in the kidney and spleen of cirrhotic rats as compared to controls. Increased vascular leakage was observed in the mesentery and liver, where colloidal carbon spread from microvessels to the adjacent fibrotic tracts. Increased hepatic and mesenteric expression of VEGF-A and Ang-2 was found in cirrhotic rats as compared to controls. Blockade of VEGFR2 markedly reduced hepatic and mesenteric vascular leakage in cirrhotic rats. Conclusions: Enhanced endothelial permeability is restricted to the hepatic and mesenteric vascular beds in cirrhotic rats with ascites and VEGF-A and Ang-2 are key factors in the signalling pathways regulating this dysfunction.

Hexokinase 2, Glycogen Synthase and Phosphorylase Play a Key Role in Muscle Glycogen Supercompensation

Background: Glycogen-depleting exercise can lead to supercompensation of muscle glycogen stores, but the biochemical mechanisms of this phenomenon are still not completely understood. Methods: Using chronic low-frequency stimulation (CLFS) as an exercise model, the tibialis anterior muscle of rabbits was stimulated for either 1 or 24 hours, inducing a reduction in glycogen of 90% and 50% respectively. Glycogen recovery was subsequently monitored during 24 hours of rest. Results: In muscles stimulated for 1 hour, glycogen recovered basal levels during the rest period. However, in those stimulated for 24 hours, glycogen was supercompensated and its levels remained 50% higher than basal levels after 6 hours of rest, although the newly synthesized glycogen had fewer branches. This increase in glycogen correlated with an increase in hexokinase-2 expression and activity, a reduction in the glycogen phosphorylase activity ratio and an increase in the glycogen synthase activity ratio, due to dephosphorylation of site 3a, even in the presence of elevated glycogen stores. During supercompensation there was also an increase in 59-AMP-activated protein kinase phosphorylation, correlating with a stable reduction in ATP and total purine nucleotide levels. Conclusions: Glycogen supercompensation requires a coordinated chain of events at two levels in the context of decreased cell energy balance: First, an increase in the glucose phosphorylation capacity of the muscle and secondly, control of the enzymes directly involved in the synthesis and degradation of the glycogen molecule. However, supercompensated glycogen has fewer branches.

Validity of an arterial pressure waveform analysis device: does the puncture site play a role in the agreement with intermittent pulmonary artery catheter thermodilution measurements?

OBJECTIVE: The measurement of cardiac output is a key element in the assessment of cardiac function. Recently, a pulse contour analysis-based device without need for calibration became available (FloTrac/Vigileo, Edwards Lifescience, Irvine, CA). This study was conducted to determine if there is an impact of the arterial catheter site and to investigate the accuracy of this system when compared with the pulmonary artery catheter using the bolus thermodilution technique (PAC). DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: The operating room of 1 university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty patients undergoing cardiac surgery. INTERVENTIONS: CO was determined in parallel by the use of the Flotrac/Vigileo systems in the radial and femoral position (CO_rad and CO_fem) and by PAC as the reference method. Data triplets were recorded at defined time points. The primary endpoint was the comparison of CO_rad and CO_fem, and the secondary endpoint was the comparison with the PAC. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-eight simultaneous data recordings were obtained. The Bland-Altman analysis for CO_fem and CO_rad showed a bias of 0.46 L/min, precision was 0.85 L/min, and the percentage error was 34%. The Bland-Altman analysis for CO_rad and PAC showed a bias of -0.35 L/min, the precision was 1.88 L/min, and the percentage error was 76%. The Bland-Altman analysis for CO_fem and PAC showed a bias of 0.11 L/min, the precision was 1.8 L/min, and the percentage error was 69%. CONCLUSION: The FloTrac/Vigileo system was shown to not produce exactly the same CO data when used in radial and femoral arteries, even though the percentage error was close to the clinically acceptable range. Thus, the impact of the introduction site of the arterial catheter is not negligible. The agreement with thermodilution was low.

Effects of communication training on real practice performance: a role-play module versus a standardized patient module.

This study investigated the effectiveness of modules involving standardized patients and role-plays on training communication skills. The first module involved standardized patients and an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE); the second module consisted of peer role-plays and a written examination. A randomized posttest-only control group design with first-year nursing students was used. The intervention group received one-to-one communication training with direct oral feedback from the standardized patient. The control group had training with peer role-playing and mutual feedback. The posttest involved students' rating their self-efficacy, and real patients and clinical supervisors evaluated their communication skills. No significant differences were found between self-efficacy and patient ratings. However, the clinical supervisors rated the intervention group's communication skills to be significantly (p < 0.0001) superior. Assessments by clinical supervisors indicate that communication training modules including standardized patients and an OSCE are superior to communication training modules with peer role-playing.

Individual caspase-10 isoforms play distinct and opposing roles in the initiation of death receptor-mediated tumour cell apoptosis.

The cysteine protease caspase-8 is an essential executioner of the death receptor (DR) apoptotic pathway. The physiological function of its homologue caspase-10 remains poorly understood, and the ability of caspase-10 to substitute for caspase-8 in the DR apoptotic pathway is still controversial. Here, we analysed the particular contribution of caspase-10 isoforms to DR-mediated apoptosis in neuroblastoma (NB) cells characterised by their resistance to DR signalling. Silencing of caspase-8 in tumour necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL)-sensitive NB cells resulted in complete resistance to TRAIL, which could be reverted by overexpression of caspase-10A or -10D. Overexpression experiments in various caspase-8-expressing tumour cells also demonstrated that caspase-10A and -10D isoforms strongly increased TRAIL and FasL sensitivity, whereas caspase-10B or -10G had no effect or were weakly anti-apoptotic. Further investigations revealed that the unique C-terminal end of caspase-10B was responsible for its degradation by the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway and for its lack of pro-apoptotic activity compared with caspase-10A and -10D. These data highlight in several tumour cell types, a differential pro- or anti-apoptotic role for the distinct caspase-10 isoforms in DR signalling, which may be relevant for fine tuning of apoptosis initiation.

Executive Summary, Feasibility Report on Proposed Amtrak Service Quad Cities-Chicago, January 7, 2008

Since the introduction of expanded levels of intrastate service on October 30, 2006, Amtrak trains in Illinois have produced impressive gains in both ridership and ticket revenue. This success and continuing stakeholder support has given rise to a formal request from the Illinois Department of Transportation (“Ill. DOT”) to Amtrak to develop a feasibility study regarding possible service consisting of a morning and an evening train in each direction between Chicago and the Quad Cities. The area between Chicago and the Quad Cities includes many rapidly growing communities. From Chicago toward the West and South, many towns and cities have experienced double digit growth increases in population since the year 2000. Southern DuPage, Cook and Will counties have seen especially strong growth, pressuring highway infrastructure, utilities, and schools. Community development and highway congestion are readily apparent when traveling the nearly 3 hour, 175 mile route between Chicago and the Quad Cities. As information, there are only three weekday round trip bus frequencies available between Chicago and the Quad Cities. The Quad City International Airport offers a total of 10 daily scheduled round trip flights to Chicago's O'Hare International Airport via two separate carriers flying regional jets. The Quad Cities (Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, and Bettendorf) are located along the Mississippi River. Nearly 60% of its visitors are from the Chicago area. With dozens of miles of scenic riverfront, river boating, casinos, and thousands of acres of expansive public spaces, the Quad Cities area is a major draw from both Iowa and Illinois. The huge Rock Island Arsenal, one of the largest military arsenals in the country and located along the river, is transitioning to become the headquarters of the United States First Army. As will be discussed later in the report, there is only one logical rail route through the Quad Cities themselves. The Iowa Interstate Railroad operates through the Quad Cities along the river and heads west through Iowa. The Quad Cities are considering at least three potential locations for an Amtrak station. A study now underway supported by several local stakeholders will recommend a site which will then be considered, given available local and other financial support. If Amtrak service were to terminate in the Quad Cities, an overnight storage track of sufficient length along with ample parking and certain other requirements covered elsewhere in the report would be required.

Feasibility Study on Proposed Amtrak service from Chicago, to Iowa City, Iowa via Quad Cities, December 5, 2007

Soon after the Illinois Department of Transportation (“Ill. DOT”) requested Amtrak to conduct a feasibility study on proposed Amtrak service between Chicago and the Illinois Quad Cities, the Iowa Department of Transportation (“Iowa DOT”) asked that the study be extended to Iowa City and later to Des Moines. This report examines the feasibility of extending service to Iowa City. The completed report for the proposed Chicago – Quad Cities’ service was delivered to Ill. DOT in early January 2008. It assumes a stand-alone train operation strictly within the State of Illinois and makes no reference to extending the service into the State of Iowa. Therefore, there is no discussion about potential cost sharing allocations for capital improvements or operating losses between the two states which will become a matter of future negotiations between the two jurisdictions. That being said, this report on extending the service to Iowa City is simply an addendum to the Quad Cities report and covers such topics as additional capital infrastructure improvements that would be required in Iowa, impacts on operating expenses, revised ridership and revenue projections, and the like. With one minor exception, the recommended level of capital improvements within Illinois will still be required if the service to Iowa City is initiated. It is thus important for the readers of this report to refer to the Illinois study for detailed information on that state’s portion of the route alternatives.