On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

The timing of foreign direct investment under uncertainty: Evidence from the Spanish banking sector

This paper investigates the timing of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the banking sector. The importance of this issue would arise from the existence of differential benefits associated to be the first entrant in a foreign location. Nevertheless, when uncertainty is considered, the existence of some Ownership-Location-Internalization (OLI) advantages can make FDI less reversible and/or more delayable and therefore it may be optimal for the firm to delay the investment until the uncertainty is resolved. In this paper, the nature of OLI advantages in the banking sector has been examined in order to propose a prognostic model of the timing of foreign direct investment. The model is then tested for the Spanish case using duration analysis.

CAPACIDADES DE TIMING E SELECTIVIDADE DOS GESTORES DE FUNDOS DE INVESTIMENTO MOBILIÁRIO: EVIDÊNCIA EMPÍRICA PARA O CASO PORTUGUÊS

Com esta investigação propomos analisar o desempenho de uma amostra de fundos de investimento mobiliário portugueses, entre Janeiro de 2002 e Dezembro de 2009, mediante a aplicação da medida de Jensen (1968) e da metodologia de timing proposta por Henriksson e Merton (1981). Os resultados obtidos pela medida de Jensen sugerem que no geral os fundos têm desempenhos inferiores ao mercado, na ordem dos 0,34% ao ano. Contudo este valor não é estatisticamente significativo. Os fundos internacionais conseguem “bater” o mercado enquanto os fundos nacionais e fundos da União Europeia têm desempenhos inferiores. Tendo por base a medida de Henriksson e Merton (1981), verificamos que os gestores possuem poucas capacidades de selectividade (0,42% ao ano) e falham nas suas previsões quanto à evolução do mercado – timing. Enquanto os gestores internacionais parecem evidenciar melhores capacidades de selectividade, os gestores nacionais registam melhores capacidades de timing. Os resultados sugerem igualmente a existência de uma acentuada correlação negativa entre ambas as componentes do desempenho e uma distance effect na componente timing. Os testes realizados através de metodologias não condicionais e condicionais confirmam a robustez dos resultados iniciais em relação à especificação do modelo de Henriksson e Merton (1981). No entanto, sugerem que em média a introdução de factores de risco adicionais e sua posterior combinação com informação condicional em pouco afectam as estimativas de timing, mas melhoram os coeficientes de determinação e as estimativas de selectividade, sendo em média os alfas condicionais maiores que os alfas não condicionais.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

Weight-bearing bones are more sensitive to physical exercise in boys than in girls during pre- and early puberty: a cross-sectional study.

We carried out a cross-section study of the sex-specific relationship between bone mineral content and physical activity at sites with different loading in pre- and early pubertal girls and boys. There was significant sensitivity of bone mineral content of the hip to physical exercise in boys, but not in girls. BACKGROUND: Since little is known whether there are sex differences in sensitivity of bone to loading, we investigated sex differences in the cross-sectional association between measures of physical activity (PA) and bone mass and size in pre- and early pubertal children of both sexes. METHODS: We measured bone mineral content/density (BMC/BMD) and fat-free mass (FFM) in 269 6- to 13-year-old children from randomly selected schools by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Physical activity (PA) was measured by accelerometers and lower extremity strength by a jump-and-reach test. RESULTS: Boys (n = 128) had higher hip and total body BMC and BMD, higher FFM, higher muscle strength and were more physically active than girls (n = 141). Total hip BMC was positively associated with time spent in total and vigorous PA in boys (r = 0.20-0.33, p < 0.01), but not in girls (r = 0.02-0.04, p = ns), even after adjusting for FFM and strength. While boys and girls in the lowest tertile of vigorous PA (22 min/day) did not differ in hip BMC (15.62 vs 15.52 g), boys in the highest tertile (72 min/day) had significantly higher values than the corresponding girls (16.84 vs 15.71 g, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Sex differences in BMC during pre- and early puberty may be related to a different sensitivity of bone to physical loading, irrespective of muscle mass.

Nitrogen application timing and soil inorganic nitrogen dynamics under no-till oat/maize sequential cropping

The timing of N application to maize is a key factor to be considered in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of pre-planting, planting and sidedress N application on oat residue decomposition, on soil N immobilisation and remineralisation and on N uptake by maize plants in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping. Undisturbed soil cores of 10 and 20 cm diameter were collected from the 0-15 cm layer of a no-till Red Latossol, when the oat cover crop was in the milk-grain stage. Two greenhouse experiments were conducted simultaneously. Experiment A, established in the 10 cm diameter cores and without plant cultivation, was used to asses N dynamics in soil and oat residues. Experiment B, established in the 20 cm diameter cores and with maize cultivation, was used to assess plant growth and N uptake. An amount of 6.0 Mg ha-1 dry matter of oat residues was spread on the surface of the cores. A rate of 90 kg N ha-1 applied as ammonium sulphate in both experiments was split in pre-planting, planting and sidedress applications as follows: (a) 00-00-00 (control), (b) 90-00-00 (pre-planting application, 20 days before planting), (c) 00-90-00 (planting application), (d) 00-30-60 (split in a planting and a sidedress application 31 days after emergence), (e) 00-00-00* (control, without oat residue) and (f) 90-00-00* (pre-planting application, without oat residue). The N concentration and N content in oat residues were not affected during decomposition by N fertilisation. Most of the fertiliser NH4+-N was converted into NO3--N within 20 days after application. A significant decrease in NO3--N contents in the 0-4 cm layer was observed in all treatments between 40 and 60 days after the oat residue placement on the soil surface, suggesting the occurrence of N immobilisation in this period. Considering that most of the inorganic N was converted into NO3- and that no immobilisation of the pre planting fertiliser N occurred at the time of its application, it was possible to conclude that pre-planting applied N was prone to losses by leaching. On the other hand, with split N applications, maize plants showed N deficiency symptoms before sidedress application. Two indications for fertiliser-N management in no-till oat/maize sequential cropping could be suggested: (a) in case of split application, the sidedress should be earlier than 30 days after emergence, and (b) if integral application is preferred to save field operations, this should be done at planting.

Maize response to nitrogen fertilization timing in two tillage systems in a soil with high organic matter content

No-tillage systems, associated to black oat as preceding cover crop, have been increasingly adopted. This has motivated anticipated maize nitrogen fertilization, transferring it from the side-dress system at the stage when plants have five to six expanded leaves to when the preceding cover crop is eliminated or to maize sowing. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of soil tillage system and timing of N fertilization on maize grain yield and agronomic efficiency of N applied to a soil with high organic matter content. A three-year field experiment was conducted in Lages, state of Santa Catarina, from 1999 onwards. Treatments were set up in a split plot arrangement. Two soil tillage systems were tested in the main plots: conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT). Six N management systems were assessed in the split-plots: S1 - control, without N application; S2 - all N (100 kg ha-1) applied at oat desiccation; S3 - all N applied at maize sowing; S4 - all N side-dressed when maize had five expanded leaves (V5 growth stage); S5 - 1/3 of N rate applied at maize sowing and 2/3 at V5; S6 - 2/3 of nitrogen rate applied at maize sowing and 1/3 at V5. Maize response to the time and form of splitting N was not affected by the soil tillage system. Grain yield ranged from 6.0 to 11.8 t ha-1. The anticipation of N application (S2 and S3) decreased grain yield in two of three years. In the rainiest early spring season (2000/2001) of the experiment, S4 promoted an yield advantage of 2.2 t ha-1 over S2 and S3. Application of total N rate before or at sowing decreased the number of kernels produced per ear in 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 and the number of ears produced per area in 2001/2002, resulting in reduced grain yield. The agronomic efficiency of applied N (kg grain increase/kg of N applied) ranged from 13.9 to 38.8 and was always higher in the S4 than in the S2 and S3 N systems. Short-term N immobilization did not reduce grain yield when no N was applied before or at maize sowing in a soil with high organic matter content, regardless of the soil tillage system.

Treatment and timing in invasive mould disease.

Invasive mould disease is a growing threat for immunocompromised patients. The optimum time to use mould-active antifungal agents is much debated. Current approaches to antifungal prophylaxis, early treatment (empirical and pre-emptive therapy) and treatment of documented mould infections in onco-haematology patients are discussed.

Influence of the timing of low-dose aspirin on tolerability of prolonged-release nicotinic acid in patients at elevated cardiovascular risk

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of low-dose aspirin administered in the morning or evening on the rate of discontinuation of prolonged-release nicotinic acid (Niaspan) due to flushing in patients at elevated cardiovascular risk. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was an observational, non-interventional study in patients at elevated cardiovascular risk due to cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes. Patients received prolonged-release nicotinic acid and aspirin under the usual care of their physician for 15 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was the rate of treatment discontinuation for flushing. Other adverse drug reactions (ADRs) were also recorded. Lipid parameters were also measured. RESULTS: The patient population included 539 subjects (70% male); 36% had type 2 diabetes, 80% had prior cardiovascular disease, and 37% had a family history of cardiovascular disease. The rate of treatment discontinuation due to flushing did not differ (p = 0.3375) between the morning aspirin group (10.6%) and the evening aspirin group (13.8%). The overall incidence of flushing was 57%. Most flushes were of mild or moderate severity and decreases occurred over time in both frequency and intensity. ADRs unrelated to flushing occurred in 6.6% of the morning aspirin group and 7.4% of the evening aspirin group. HDL-cholesterol increased by +21.3% in the overall population, together with moderate improvements in other lipid parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Flushing was the most common ADR with prolonged-release nicotinic acid treatment, as expected. The timing of aspirin administration did not influence the rate of treatment discontinuations for flushing. Marked increases in HDL-cholesterol were observed.

Timing, location and crop species influence the magnitude of amelioration of aluminum toxicity by magnesium

The protective effect of cations, especially Ca and Mg, against aluminum (Al) rhizotoxicity has been extensively investigated in the last decades. The mechanisms by which the process occurs are however only beginning to be elucidated. Six experiments were carried out here to characterize the protective effect of Mg application in relation to timing, location and crop specificity: Experiment 1 - Protective effect of Mg compared to Ca; Experiment 2 - Protective effect of Mg on distinct root classes of 15 soybean genotypes; Experiment 3 - Effect of timing of Mg supply on the response of soybean cvs. to Al; Experiment 4 - Investigating whether the Mg protective effect is apoplastic or simplastic using a split-root system; Experiment 5 - Protective effect of Mg supplied in solution or foliar spraying, and Experiment 6 - Protective effect of Mg on Al rhizotoxicity in other crops. It was found that the addition of 50 mmol L-1 Mg to solutions containing toxic Al increased Al tolerance in 15 soybean cultivars. This caused soybean cultivars known as Al-sensitive to behave as if they were tolerant. The protective action of Mg seems to require constant Mg supply in the external medium. Supplying Mg up to 6 h after root exposition to Al was sufficient to maintain normal soybean root growth, but root growth was not recovered by Mg addition 12 h after Al treatments. Mg application to half of the root system not exposed to Al was not sufficient to prevent Al toxicity on the other half exposed to Al without Mg in rooting medium, indicating the existence of an external protection mechanism of Mg. Foliar spraying with Mg also failed to decrease Al toxicity, indicating a possible apoplastic role of Mg. The protective effect of Mg appeared to be soybean-specific since Mg supply did not substantially improve root elongation in sorghum, wheat, corn, cotton, rice, or snap bean when grown in the presence of toxic Al concentrations.

Educational attainment and timing of fertility decisions

This paper focuses on timing of fertility decisions, conditional on the level of educational attainment of parents. Timing of fertility and educational attainment of parents rationalize the negative relationship observed in the data between hourly wages and childbearing. It is shown how the recent evolution in total fertility rates observed in developed countries could be in part the result of a transition from an early childbearing regime to a late childbearing regime. I develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in order to understand the joint determination of timing of childbearing decisions together with other household economic decisions in a life cycle framework. I show how idiosyncratic uncertainty might have asymmetric efects on completed fertility depending on timing of childbearing, generating the diferences in completed fertility observed between households that difer in their level of educational attainment.

Timing effects of combined radioimmunotherapy and radiotherapy on a human solid tumor in nude mice.

Timing effects of radioimmunotherapy (RIT) combined with external-beam radiotherapy (RT) were assessed in human colon carcinoma xenografts. Initially, dose effects of fractionated RT and RIT were evaluated separately. Then, 30 Gy RT (10 fractions over 12 days) were combined with three weekly i.v. injections of 200 microCi of 131I-labeled anti-carcinoembryonic antigen monoclonal antibodies in four different treatment schedules. RIT was given either prior to, concurrently, immediately after, or 2 weeks after RT administration. The longest regrowth delay (RD) of 105 days was observed in mice treated by concurrent administration of RT and RIT, whereas the RDs of RT and RIT alone were 34 and 20 days, respectively. The three sequential combination treatments produced significantly shorter RDs ranging from 62 to 70 days. The tumor response represented by the minimal volume (MV) also showed that concurrent administration of RT and RIT gave the best result, with a mean MV of 4.5% as compared to MVs from 26 to 53% for the three sequential treatments. The results were confirmed in a second experiment, in which a RT of 40 Gy was combined with an identical RIT as above (three injections of 200 microCi of 131I-labeled monoclonal antibodies). At comparable toxicity levels, the maximum tolerated RT or RIT alone gave shorter RDs and less tumor shrinkage compared to simultaneous RT+ RIT. These results may be useful for designing clinical protocols of combined RIT and RT.

The impact of navigator timing parameters and navigator spatial resolution on 3D coronary magnetic resonance angiography.

The impact of navigator spatial resolution and navigator evaluation time on image quality in free-breathing navigator-gated 3D coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA), including real-time motion correction, was investigated in a moving phantom. Objective image quality parameters signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and vessel sharpness were compared. It was found that for improved mage quality a short navigator evaluation time is of crucial importance. Navigator spatial resolution showed minimal influence on image quality.