Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

High strong order methods for non-commutative stochastic ordinary differential equation systems and the Magnus formula

In recent years considerable attention has been paid to the numerical solution of stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs), as SODEs are often more appropriate than their deterministic counterparts in many modelling situations. However, unlike the deterministic case numerical methods for SODEs are considerably less sophisticated due to the difficulty in representing the (possibly large number of) random variable approximations to the stochastic integrals. Although Burrage and Burrage [High strong order explicit Runge-Kutta methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations, Applied Numerical Mathematics 22 (1996) 81-101] were able to construct strong local order 1.5 stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for certain cases, it is known that all extant stochastic Runge-Kutta methods suffer an order reduction down to strong order 0.5 if there is non-commutativity between the functions associated with the multiple Wiener processes. This order reduction down to that of the Euler-Maruyama method imposes severe difficulties in obtaining meaningful solutions in a reasonable time frame and this paper attempts to circumvent these difficulties by some new techniques. An additional difficulty in solving SODEs arises even in the Linear case since it is not possible to write the solution analytically in terms of matrix exponentials unless there is a commutativity property between the functions associated with the multiple Wiener processes. Thus in this present paper first the work of Magnus [On the exponential solution of differential equations for a linear operator, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 7 (1954) 649-673] (applied to deterministic non-commutative Linear problems) will be applied to non-commutative linear SODEs and methods of strong order 1.5 for arbitrary, linear, non-commutative SODE systems will be constructed - hence giving an accurate approximation to the general linear problem. Secondly, for general nonlinear non-commutative systems with an arbitrary number (d) of Wiener processes it is shown that strong local order I Runge-Kutta methods with d + 1 stages can be constructed by evaluated a set of Lie brackets as well as the standard function evaluations. A method is then constructed which can be efficiently implemented in a parallel environment for this arbitrary number of Wiener processes. Finally some numerical results are presented which illustrate the efficacy of these approaches. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

General order conditions for stochastic Runge-Kutta methods for both commuting and non-commuting stochastic ordinary differential equation systems

In many modeling situations in which parameter values can only be estimated or are subject to noise, the appropriate mathematical representation is a stochastic ordinary differential equation (SODE). However, unlike the deterministic case in which there are suites of sophisticated numerical methods, numerical methods for SODEs are much less sophisticated. Until a recent paper by K. Burrage and P.M. Burrage (1996), the highest strong order of a stochastic Runge-Kutta method was one. But K. Burrage and P.M. Burrage (1996) showed that by including additional random variable terms representing approximations to the higher order Stratonovich (or Ito) integrals, higher order methods could be constructed. However, this analysis applied only to the one Wiener process case. In this paper, it will be shown that in the multiple Wiener process case all known stochastic Runge-Kutta methods can suffer a severe order reduction if there is non-commutativity between the functions associated with the Wiener processes. Importantly, however, it is also suggested how this order can be repaired if certain commutator operators are included in the Runge-Kutta formulation. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. and IMACS. All rights reserved.

Climate Change and Human Displacement

This paper will focus on the legal issues associated with people displaced as a result of water scarcity. Human displacement can lead to internal displacement (displacement of people within their country) and external displacement (displacement of people into another country). If the displacement takes place as a result of climate change these people may be referred to as climate refugees. The majority of work on climate refugees has focused on those people that will lose their homes as a result of sea –level rise. The number of people that could be displaced as a result of prolonged drought and lack of adequate water supplies is likely to be far more significant in number. There are estimates that around 2.8 billion people will suffer water shortages by 2025 and many of these people are at increased risk of internal or external displacement. Certain groups are more likely to be displaced as a result of prolonged drought or water scarcity. These groups include indigenous and minorities groups living in areas that are more susceptible to climate change and groups living in areas with a history of water shortage and supply issues. People displaced as a result of water scarcity are at increased risks of malnutrition and of dehydration. Furthermore the lack of adequate water supplies in such areas increases the risk and spread of disease among the population. In certain instances internal and external displacement may lead to escalation of conflict and competition for water resources in newly settled territories. This paper will use case studies from Australia (indigenous groups and rural landholders) and East Africa (Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya) to demonstrate the significance of human displacement arising as a result of water scarcity. Climate adaptation policy frameworks will need to address a number of legal issues, arising as a result of climate displacement from water scarcity. There are a number of unresolved legal issues for both categories of environmental displaced people. The major legal issue for externally environmentally displaced people is lack of international recognition and support for these people. The Climate Change Convention, the Refugee Convention, the Desertification Convention and Human Rights instruments all fail to provide recognition for people externally displaced as a result of environmental conditions. Similarly there is a lack of legal recognition and legal support mechanisms to assist those people internally displaced by environmental conditions. The lack of developed environmental rights in most countries contributes to this problem. Polices and governance frameworks must be put in place which aims to prevent such displacement through programs identifying populations at risk and instigating damage mitigation and relocation programs. In addition there are a number of legal issues which may arise such as; rights of compensation, property and tenure disputes, increases on the water demand and environmental degradation in places of relocation and jurisdictional issues arising in federal countries. This paper will provide an overview of the legal issues at the international and national levels arising as a result of climate displacement from water scarcity.  

Creating 'saviour siblings' : the notion of harming by conceiving in the context of healthy children

Over the past decade there have been a number of families who have utilised assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs) to create a tissue-matched child, with the purpose of using the child’s tissue to cure an existing sick child. This inevitably brings such families a sense of hope as the ultimate aim is to overcome a family health crisis. However, this specific use of reproductive technologies has been the subject of significant criticism, most of which is levelled against the potential harm to the ‘saviour’ child. In Australia, families seeking to access reproductive technologies in this context are therefore required to justify their motives to an ethics committee in order to establish, amongst other things, whether the child will suffer harm once born. This paper explores the concept of harm in the context of conception, focusing on whether it is possible to ‘harm’ a healthy child who has been conceived to save another. To achieve this, the paper will evaluate the impact of the ‘non-identity’ principle in the ‘saviour sibling’ context, and assess the existing body of literature which addresses ‘harm’ in the context of conception. As will be established, the majority of such literature has focused on ‘wrongful life’ cases which seek to address whether an existing child who has been born with a disability, has been harmed. Finally, this paper will distinguish the harm arguments in the ‘saviour sibling’ context based on the fact that the harm evaluation concerns the ‘future-life’ assessment of a healthy child.

UCPR r243 - notice of non-party disclosure - obligation to state allegation to which documents sought are directly relevant

In Deppro Pty Ltd v Hannah [2008] QSC 193 one of the matters considered by the court related to the requirement in r 243 of the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules 1999 (Qld) that a notice of non-party disclosure must “state the allegation in issue in the pleadings about which the document sought is directly relevant.”The approach adopted by the issuing party in this case of asserting that documents sought by a notice of non-party disclosure are relevant to allegations in numbered paragraphs in pleadings, and serving copies of the pleadings with the notice, is not uncommon in practice. This decision makes it clear that this practice is fraught with danger. In circumstances where it is not apparent that the non-party has been fully apprised of the relevant issues the decision suggests an applicant for non-party disclosure who has not complied with the requirements of s 243 might be required to issue a fresh, fully compliant notice, and to suffer associated costs consequences.

Sex discrimination and non-random sampling in the Australian labour market

Historically a significant gap between male and female wages has existed in the Australian labour market. Indeed this wage differential was institutionalised in the 1912 arbitration decision which determined that the basic female wage would be set at between 54 and 66 per cent of the male wage. More recently however, the 1969 and 1972 Equal Pay Cases determined that male/female wage relativities should be based upon the premise of equal pay for work of equal value. It is important to note that the mere observation that average wages differ between males and females is not sine qua non evidence of sex discrimination. Economists restrict the definition of wage discrimination to cases where two distinct groups receive different average remuneration for reasons unrelated to differences in productivity characteristics. This paper extends previous studies of wage discrimination in Australia (Chapman and Mulvey, 1986; Haig, 1982) by correcting the estimated male/female wage differential for the existence of non-random sampling. Previous Australian estimates of male/female human capital basedwage specifications together with estimates of the corresponding wage differential all suffer from a failure to address this issue. If the sample of females observed to be working does not represent a random sample then the estimates of the male/female wage differential will be both biased and inconsistent.

Immigrant wage differentials and the role of self-employment in Australia

Immigration has played an important role in the historical development of Australia. Thus, it is no surprise that a large body of empirical work has developed, which focuses upon how migrants fare in the land of opportunity. Much of the literature is comparatively recent, i.e. the last ten years or so, encouraged by the advent of public availability of Australian crosssection micro data. Several different aspects of migrant welfare have been addressed, with major emphasis being placed upon earnings and unemployment experience. For recent examples see Haig (1980), Stromback (1984), Chiswick and Miller (1985), Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) and Beggs and Chapman (1988). The present paper contributes to the literature by providing additional empirical evidence on the native/migrant earnings differential. The data utilised are from the rather neglected Australian Bureau of Statistics, ABS Special Supplementary Survey No.4. 1982, otherwise known as the Family Survey. The paper also examines the importance of distinguishing between the wage and salary sector and the self-employment sector when discussing native/migrant differentials. Separate earnings equations for the two labour market groups are estimated and the native/migrant earnings differential is broken down by employment status. This is a novel application in the Australian context and provides some insight into the earnings of the selfemployed, a group that despite its size (around 20 per cent of the labour force) is frequently ignored by economic research. Most previous empirical research fails to examine the effect of employment status on earnings. Stromback (1984) includes a dummy variable representing self-employment status in an earnings equation estimated over a pooled sample of paid and self-employed workers. The variable is found to be highly significant, which leads Stromback to question the efficacy of including the self-employed in the estimation sample. The suggestion is that part of self-employed earnings represent a return to non-human capital investment, i.e. investments in machinery, buildings etc, the structural determinants of earnings differ significantly from those for paid employees. Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) deal with differences between paid employees and the selfemployed by deleting the latter from their sample. However, deleting the self-employed from the estimation sample may lead to bias in the OLS estimation method (see Heckman 1979). The desirable properties of OLS are dependent upon estimation on a random sample. Thus, the 'Ran-Nam and Nevile results are likely to suffer from bias unless individuals are randomly allocated between self-employment and paid employment. The current analysis extends Tran-Nam and Nevile (1988) by explicitly treating the choice of paid employment versus self-employment as being endogenously determined. This allows an explicit test for the appropriateness of deleting self-employed workers from the sample. Earnings equations that are corrected for sample selection are estimated for both natives and migrants in the paid employee sector. The Heckman (1979) two-step estimator is employed. The paper is divided into five major sections. The next section presents the econometric model incorporating the specification of the earnings generating process together with an explicit model determining an individual's employment status. In Section 111 the data are described. Section IV draws together the main econometric results of the paper. First, the probit estimates of the labour market status equation are documented. This is followed by presentation and discussion of the Heckman two-stage estimates of the earnings specification for both native and migrant Australians. Separate earnings equations are estimated for paid employees and the self-employed. Section V documents estimates of the nativelmigrant earnings differential for both categories of employees. To aid comparison with earlier work, the Oaxaca decomposition of the earnings differential for paid-employees is carried out for both the simple OLS regression results as well as the parameter estimates corrected for sample selection effects. These differentials are interpreted and compared with previous Australian findings. A short section concludes the paper.

The right to choose an assisted death : time for legislation?

The legal framework that operates at the end of life in Australia needs to be reformed. • Voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide are currently unlawful. • Both activities nevertheless occur not infrequently in Australia, in part because palliative care cannot relieve physical and psychological pain and suffering in all cases. • In this respect, the law is deficient. The law is also unfair because it doesn’t treat people equally. Some people can be helped to die on their own terms as a result of their knowledge and/or connections while some are able to hasten their death by the refusal of life-sustaining treatment. But others do not have access to the means for their life to end. • A very substantial majority of Australians have repeatedly expressed in public opinion polls their desire for law reform on these matters. Many are concerned at what they see is happening to their loved ones as they reach the end of their lives, and want the confidence that when their time comes they will be able to exercise choice in relation to assisted dying. • The most consistent reason advanced not to change the law is the need to protect the vulnerable. There is a concern that if the law allows voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide for some people, it will be expanded and abused, including pressures being placed on highly dependent people and those with disabilities to agree to euthanasia. • But there is now a large body of experience in a number of international jurisdictions following the legalisation of voluntary euthanasia and/or assisted suicide. This shows that appropriate safeguards can be implemented to protect vulnerable people and prevent the abuse that opponents of assisted dying have feared. It reveals that assisted dying meets a real need among a small minority of people at the end of their lives. It also provides reassurance to people with terminal and incurable disease that they will not be left to suffer the indignities and discomfort of a nasty death. • Australia is an increasingly secular society. Strong opposition to assisted death by religious groups that is based on their belief in divine sanctity of all human life is not a justification for denying choice for those who do not share that belief. • It is now time for Australian legislators to respond to this concern and this experience by legislating to enhance the quality of death for those Australians who seek assisted dying.

Does Identifying Ambushers as Non-Sponsors Help or Hurt Legitimate Sponsors? Memory and Attitudinal Consequences

Two experiments examine outcomes for sponsor and ambusher brands within sponsorship settings. It is demonstrated that although making consumers aware of the presence of ambusher brands can reduce subsequent event recall to competitor cues, recall to sponsor cues can also suffer. Attitudinal effects are also considered.

Aromatherapy for postoperative nausea and vomiting

Background: Postoperative nausea and vomiting is one of the most common adverse reactions to surgery and all types of anaesthesia and despite the wide variety of available antiemetic and anti-nausea treatments, 20-30% of all patients still suffer moderate to severe nausea and vomiting following general anaesthesia. While aromatherapy is well-known and is used personally by nurses, it is less well utilised in the healthcare setting. If aromatherapy is to become an accepted adjunct treatment for postoperative nausea and vomiting, it is imperative that there is both an evidence base to support the use of aromatherapy, and a nursing workforce prepared to utilise it. Methods: This involved a Cochrane Systematic Review, a Delphi process to modify an existing tool to assess beliefs about aromatherapy to make it more relevant to nursing and midwifery practice, and a survey to test the modified tool in a population of nurses and midwives. Findings: The systematic review found that aromatherapy with isopropyl alcohol was more effective than placebo for reducing the number of doses of rescue antiemetics required but not more effective than standard antiemetic drugs. The Delphi panel process showed that the original Beliefs About Aromatherapy Scale was not completely relevant to nursing and midwifery practice. The modified Nurses' Beliefs About Aromatherapy Scale was found to be valid and reliable to measure nurses' and midwives' beliefs about aromatherapy. Factor analysis supported the construct validity of the scale by finding two sub-scales measuring beliefs about the 'usefulness of aromatherapy' and the 'scientific basis of aromatherapy'. Survey respondents were found to have generally positive beliefs about aromatherapy, with more strongly positive beliefs on the 'usefulness of aromatherapy' sub-scale. Conclusions: From the evidence of the systematic review, the use of isopropyl alcohol vapour inhalation as an adjunct therapy for postoperative nausea and vomiting is unlikely to be harmful and may reduce nausea for some adult patients. It may provide a useful therapeutic option, particularly when the alternative is no treatment at all. Given the moderately positive beliefs expressed by nurses and midwives particularly about the usefulness of aromatherapy there is potential for this therapy to be implemented and used to improve patient care.

Business in troubled waters : does adverse attitude affect firm value?

This paper investigates the relationship between US MNCs' valuations and anti-Americanism in countries where MNCs' foreign subsidiaries are located. We find that MNCs suffer value-destruction when they enter markets where people express severe anti-Americanism. However, we uncover that geographic diversification into these high anti-Americanism countries significantly increases firm value if the MNC has high levels of intangibles such as technological know-how and marketing expertise. Our findings are consistent with the notion that the advantages from internalizing the cross-border transfer of intangibles are greater when barriers to competition are higher.

Investigation of megavoltage beams and detectors for electronic portal imaging

Accuracy of dose delivery in external beam radiotherapy is usually verified with electronic portal imaging (EPI) in which the treatment beam is used to check the positioning of the patient. However the resulting megavoltage x-ray images suffer from poor quality. The image quality can be improved by developing a special operating mode in the linear accelerator. The existing treatment beam is modified such that it produces enough low-energy photons for imaging. In this work the problem of optimizing the beam/detector combination to achieve optimal electronic portal image quality is addressed. The linac used for this study was modified to produce two experimental photon beams. These beams, named Al6 and Al10, were non-flat and were produced by 4MeV electrons hitting aluminum targets, 6 and 10mm thick respectively. The images produced by a conventional EPI system (6MV treatment beam and camera-based EPID with a Cu plate & Gd2O2S screen ) were compared with the images produced by the experimental beams and various screens with the same camera). The contrast of 0.8cm bone equivalent material in 5 cm water increased from 1.5% for the conventional system to 11% for the combination of Al6 beam with a 200mg/cm2 Gd2O2S screen. The signal-to-noise ratio calculated for 1cGy flood field images increased by about a factor of two for the same EPI systems. The spatial resolution of the two imaging systems was comparable. This work demonstrates that significant improvements in portal image contrast can be obtained by simultaneous optimization of the linac spectrum and EPI detector.

Recommending people in social networks using data mining

This thesis improves the process of recommending people to people in social networks using new clustering algorithms and ranking methods. The proposed system and methods are evaluated on the data collected from a real life social network. The empirical analysis of this research confirms that the proposed system and methods achieved improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of matching and recommending people, and overcome some of the problems that social matching systems usually suffer.

Feature-domain super-resolution for iris recognition

Uncooperative iris identification systems at a distance suffer from poor resolution of the acquired iris images, which significantly degrades iris recognition performance. Super-resolution techniques have been employed to enhance the resolution of iris images and improve the recognition performance. However, most existing super-resolution approaches proposed for the iris biometric super-resolve pixel intensity values, rather than the actual features used for recognition. This paper thoroughly investigates transferring super-resolution of iris images from the intensity domain to the feature domain. By directly super-resolving only the features essential for recognition, and by incorporating domain specific information from iris models, improved recognition performance compared to pixel domain super-resolution can be achieved. A framework for applying super-resolution to nonlinear features in the feature-domain is proposed. Based on this framework, a novel feature-domain super-resolution approach for the iris biometric employing 2D Gabor phase-quadrant features is proposed. The approach is shown to outperform its pixel domain counterpart, as well as other feature domain super-resolution approaches and fusion techniques.