Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Averages and ranges of paleoenvironmental proxy records of ODP Hole 108-658C (Table 1)

Several high-resolution proxy environmental records have been obtained for the last 35 kyr from ODP Hole 658C, a well-studied site ca. 200 km off Cap Blanc, NW Africa. The collective assessment based on the marine proxies (UK'37 SST, contents of TOC and chlorins, Upwelling Radiolarian Index and the percentage of Florisphaera profunda), surprisingly indicates that the last glacial maximum (LGM) was characterized by warmer sea surface temperature (SST), weaker upwelling, and lower marine productivity, compared with the preceding older glacial and subsequent deglaciation periods. Of the terrigenous proxies, the mean grain size of the non-carbonate fraction and the terrigenous alkane content indicate that wind strength and aridity were high. The weaker upwelling at the 658 site during the LGM may have resulted from changes in the strength and direction of the wind systems and/or shifts in the position and geometry of the upwelling cell.

Multi-proxy analyses of sediment core GeoB13801-2

Over the Uruguayan shelf and uppermost slope the coalescence of northward flowing Subantarctic Shelf Water and southward flowing Subtropical Shelf Water forms a distinct thermohaline front termed the Subtropical Shelf Front (STSF). Running in a SW direction diagonally across the shelf from the coastal waters at 32°S towards the shelf break at ca. 36°S, the STSF represents the shelf-ward extension of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence zone. This study reconstructs latitudinal STSF shifts during the Holocene based on benthic foraminifera d18O and d13C, total organic carbon, carbonate contents, Ti/Ca, and grain-size distribution from a high-accumulation sedimentary record located at an uppermost continental-slope terrace. Our data provide direct evidence for: (1) a southern STSF position (to the South of the core site) at the beginning of the early Holocene (>9.4 cal ka BP) linked to a more southerly position of the Southern Westerly Winds in combination with restricted shelf circulation intensity due to lower sea level; (2) a gradual STSF northward migration (bypassing the core site towards the North) primarily forced by the northward migration of the Southern Westerly Winds from 9.4 cal ka BP onwards; (3) a relatively stable position of the front in the interval between 7.2 and 4.0 cal ka BP; (4) millennial-scale latitudinal oscillations close to 36°S of the STSF after 4.0 cal ka BP probably linked to the intensification in El Niño Southern Oscillation; and (5) a southward migration of the STSF during the last 200 years possibly linked to anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere.

Revised calibration of the MBT-CBT paleotemperature proxy

The MBT-CBT proxy for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures and past soil pH is based on the distribution of branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) membrane lipids. The Methylation of Branched Tetraether (MBT) and the Cyclisation of Branched Tetraether (CBT) indices were developed to quantify these distributions, and significant empirical relations between these indices and annual mean air temperature (MAT) and/or soil pH were found in a large data set of soils. In this study, we extended this soil dataset to 278 globally distributed surface soils. Of these soils, 26% contains all nine brGDGTs, while in 63% of the soils the seven most common brGDGTs were detected, and the latter were selected for calibration purposes. This resulted in new transfer functions for the reconstruction of pH based on the CBT index: pH = 7.90-1.97 × CBT (r**2 = 0.70; RMSE = 0.8; n = 176), as well as for MAT based on the CBT index and methylation index based on the seven most abundant GDGTs (defined as MBT'): MAT = 0.81-5.67 × CBT + 31.0 × MBT' (r**2 = 0.59; RMSE = 5.0 °C; n = 176). The new transfer function for MAT has a substantially lower correlation coefficient than the original equation (r**2 = 0.77). To investigate possible improvement of the correlation, we used our extended global surface soil dataset to statistically derive the indices that best describe the relations of brGDGT composition with MAT and soil pH. These new indices, however, resulted in only a relatively minor increase in correlation coefficients, while they cannot be explained straightforwardly by physiological mechanisms. The large scatter in the calibration cannot be fully explained by local factors or by seasonality, but MAT for soils from arid regions are generally substantially (up to 20 °C) underestimated, suggesting that absolute brGDGT-based temperature records for these areas should be interpreted with caution. The applicability of the new MBT'-CBT calibration function was tested using previously published MBT-CBT-derived paleotemperature records covering the last deglaciation in Central Africa and East Asia, the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. The results show that trends remain similar in all records, but that absolute temperature estimates and the amplitude of temperature changes are lower for most records, and generally in better agreement with independent proxy data.

TEX86H proxy and BIT index of sediment core GeoB9528-3

Changes in the strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are known to have profound impacts on global climate. Coupled modelling studies have suggested that, on annual to multi-decadal time scales, a slowdown of AMOC causes a deepening of the thermocline in the tropical Atlantic. However, this process has been poorly constrained by sedimentary geochemical records. Here, we reconstruct surface (UK'37 Index) and thermocline (TEXH86) water temperatures from the Guinea Plateau Margin (Eastern tropical Atlantic) over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles (~ 192 kyr). These paleotemperature records show that periods of reduced AMOC, as indicated by the d13 C benthic foraminiferal record from the same core, coincide with a reduction in the near-surface vertical temperature gradient, demonstrating for the first time that AMOC-induced tropical Atlantic thermocline adjustment exists on longer, millennial time scales. Modelling results support the interpretation of the geochemical records and show that thermocline adjustment is particularly pronounced in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Thus, variations in AMOC strength appear to be an important driver of the thermocline structure in the tropical Atlantic from annual to multi-millennial time scales.