850 resultados para Prospective econometrics


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Background: This study aimed to examine factors associated with treatment adherence in first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients followed up over 8 years, especially involuntary first admission and stopping cannabis use. Methods: This prospective, longitudinal study of FEP patients collected data on symptoms, adherence, functioning,and substance use. Adherence to treatment was the main outcome variable and was categorized as ‘good’ or ‘bad’. Cannabis use during follow-up was stratified as continued use, stopped use, and never used. Bivariate and logistic regression models identified factors significantly associated with adherence and changes in adherence over the 8-year follow-up period. Results: Of the 98 FEP patients analyzed at baseline, 57.1% had involuntary first admission, 74.4% bad adherence,and 52% cannabis use. Good adherence at baseline was associated with Global Assessment of Functioning score (p = 0.019), Hamilton Depression Rating Scale score (p = 0.017) and voluntary admission (p < 0.001). Adherence patterns over 8 years included: 43.4% patients always bad, 26.1% always good, 25% improved from bad to good. Among the improved adherence group, 95.7% had involuntary first admission and 38.9% stopped cannabis use. In the subgroup of patients with bad adherence at baseline, involuntary first admission and quitting cannabis use during follow up were associated with improved adherence. Conclusions: The long-term association between treatment adherence and type of first admission and cannabis use in FEP patients suggest targets for intervention to improve clinical outcomes.

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Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of the disease that require hospitalization. Current guidelines offer little guidance for identifying patients whose clinical situation is appropriate for admission to the hospital, and properly developed and validated severity scores for COPD exacerbations are lacking. To address these important gaps in clinical care, we created the IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study. Methods/Design: The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology was used to identify appropriate and inappropriate scenarios for hospital admission for patients experiencing COPD exacerbations. These scenarios were then applied to a prospective cohort of patients attending the emergency departments (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Information was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up after admission or discharge home. While complete data were generally available at the time of ED admission, data were often missing at the time of decision making. Predefined assumptions were used to impute much of the missing data. Discussion: The IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study will validate the appropriateness criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology and thus better delineate the requirements for admission or discharge of patients experiencing exacerbations of COPD. The study will also provide a better understanding of the determinants of outcomes of COPD exacerbations, and evaluate the equity and variability in access and outcomes in these patients.

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Over 230 metric tons of octopus is harvested as bycatch annually in Alaskan trawl, long-line, and pot fisheries. An expanding market has fostered interest in the development of a directed fishery for North Pacific giant octopus (Enteroctopus dofleini). To investigate the potential for fishery development we examined the efficacy of four different pot types for capture of this species. During two surveys in Kachemak Bay, Alaska, strings of 16 –20 sablefish, Korean hair crab, shrimp, and Kodiak wooden lair pots were set at depths ranging between 62 and 390 meters. Catch per-unit-of-ef for t estimates were highest for sablefish and lair pots. Sablefish pots caught significantly heavier North Pacific giant octopuses but also produced the highest bycatch of commercially important species, such as halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), and Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi).

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Background Data on the cardiac characteristics of centenarians are scarce. Our aim was to describe electrocardiogram (ECG) and echocardiography in a cohort of centenarians and to correlate them with clinical data. Methods We used prospective multicenter registry of 118 centenarians (28 men) with a mean age of 101.5 ± 1.7 years. Electrocardiogram was performed in 103 subjects (87.3%) and echocardiography in 100 (84.7%). All subjects underwent a follow-up for at least 6 months. Results Centenarians with abnormal ECG were less frequently females (72% vs 93%), had higher rates of previous consumption of tobacco (14% vs 0) and alcohol (24% vs 12%), and scored lower in the perception of health status (6.8 ± 2.0 vs 8.3 ± 6.8). Centenarians with significant abnormalities in echocardiography were less frequently able to walk 6 m (33% vs 54%). Atrial fibrillation/flutter was found in 27 subjects (26%). Mean left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction was 60.0 ± 10.5%. Moderate or severe aortic valve stenosis was found in 16%, mitral valve regurgitation in 15%, and aortic valve regurgitation in 13%. Diastolic dysfunction was assessed in 79 subjects and was present in 55 (69.6%). Katz index and LV dilation were independently associated with the ability to walk 6 m. Age, Charlson and Katz indexes, and the presence of significant abnormalities in echocardiography were associated with mortality. Conclusions Centenarians have frequent ECG alterations and abnormalities in echocardiography. More than one fifth has atrial fibrillation, and most have diastolic dysfunction. Left ventricular dilation was associated with the ability to walk 6 m. Significant abnormalities in echocardiography were associated with mortality.

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Liver metastases have long been known to indicate an unfavourable disease course in breast cancer (BC). However, a small subset of patients with liver metastases alone who were treated with pre-taxane chemotherapy regimens was reported to have longer survival compared with patients with liver and metastases at other sites. In the present study, we examined the clinical outcome of breast cancer patients with liver metastases alone in the context of two phase III European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) trials which compared the efficacy of doxorubicin (A) versus paclitaxel (T) (trial 10923) and of AC (cyclophosphamide) versus AT (trial 10961), given as first-line chemotherapy in metastatic BC patients. The median follow-up for the patients with liver metastases was 90.5 months in trial 10923 and 56.6 months in trial 10961. Patients with liver metastases alone comprised 18% of all patients with liver metastases, in both the 10923 and 10961 trials. The median survival of patients with liver metastases alone and liver plus other sites of metastases were 22.7 and 14.2 months (log rank test, P=0.002) in trial 10923 and 27.1 and 16.8 months (log rank test, P=0.19) in trial 10961. The median TTP (time to progression) for patients with liver metastases alone was also longer compared with the liver plus other sites of metastases group in both trials: 10.2 versus 8.8 months (log rank test, P=0.02) in trial 10923 and 8.3 versus 6.7 months (log rank test, P=0.37) in trial 10961. Most patients with liver metastases alone have progression of their disease in their liver again (96 and 60% of patients in trials 10923 and 10961, respectively). Given the high prevalence of breast cancer, improved detection of liver metastases, encouraging survival achieved with currently available cytotoxic agents and the fact that a significant portion of patients with liver metastases alone have progression of their tumour in the liver again, a more aggressive multimodality treatment approach through prospective clinical trials seems worth exploring in this specific subset of women.

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Background: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), secreted by the granulosa cells of preantral and small antral follicles, has been described as a potential marker of the ovarian reserve. The aim of this prospective study is to investigate the variations of AMH during the menstrual cycle in a young selected population of normo-ovulatory women and to analyse the correlation with other cyclic hormones. Methods: Twenty healthy volunteers from 19 to 35 years old, with regular menstrual cycles (26-31 days), normal ovulation (day 10-16), normal hormonal profile and normal body mass index (18-26 kg/m2) were recruited. AMH, inhibin B, LH, FSH, estradiol and progesterone were measured on days 3, 7, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 21 and 25 of a spontaneous cycle. Results: AMH serum levels, either expressed by cycleday or aligned according to the ovulation day, did not show any significant variations during the menstrual cycle. Conclusions: No significant fluctuation of the AMH level during the menstrual cycle was observed. Therefore, this hormone is particularly interesting for clinical evaluation of the ovarian reserve as it may be used at any time during the cycle. © The Author 2007.

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BACKGROUND: Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies. METHOD: The representative 1972-1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.

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BACKGROUND: The incidence and epidemiology of invasive fungal infections (IFIs), a leading cause of death among hematopoeitic stem cell transplant (HSCT) recipients, are derived mainly from single-institution retrospective studies. METHODS: The Transplant Associated Infections Surveillance Network, a network of 23 US transplant centers, prospectively enrolled HSCT recipients with proven and probable IFIs occurring between March 2001 and March 2006. We collected denominator data on all HSCTs preformed at each site and clinical, diagnostic, and outcome information for each IFI case. To estimate trends in IFI, we calculated the 12-month cumulative incidence among 9 sequential subcohorts. RESULTS: We identified 983 IFIs among 875 HSCT recipients. The median age of the patients was 49 years; 60% were male. Invasive aspergillosis (43%), invasive candidiasis (28%), and zygomycosis (8%) were the most common IFIs. Fifty-nine percent and 61% of IFIs were recognized within 60 days of neutropenia and graft-versus-host disease, respectively. Median onset of candidiasis and aspergillosis after HSCT was 61 days and 99 days, respectively. Within a cohort of 16,200 HSCT recipients who received their first transplants between March 2001 and September 2005 and were followed up through March 2006, we identified 718 IFIs in 639 persons. Twelve-month cumulative incidences, based on the first IFI, were 7.7 cases per 100 transplants for matched unrelated allogeneic, 8.1 cases per 100 transplants for mismatched-related allogeneic, 5.8 cases per 100 transplants for matched-related allogeneic, and 1.2 cases per 100 transplants for autologous HSCT. CONCLUSIONS: In this national prospective surveillance study of IFIs in HSCT recipients, the cumulative incidence was highest for aspergillosis, followed by candidiasis. Understanding the epidemiologic trends and burden of IFIs may lead to improved management strategies and study design.

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OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of WHO's "Guidelines for care at the first-referral level in developing countries" in an area of intense malaria transmission and identify bacterial infections in children with and without malaria. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: District hospital in Muheza, northeast Tanzania. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 2 months to 13 years admitted to hospital for febrile illness. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity of WHO guidelines in diagnosing invasive bacterial disease; susceptibility of isolated organisms to recommended antimicrobials. RESULTS: Over one year, 3639 children were enrolled and 184 (5.1%) died; 2195 (60.3%) were blood slide positive for Plasmodium falciparum, 341 (9.4%) had invasive bacterial disease, and 142 (3.9%) were seropositive for HIV. The prevalence of invasive bacterial disease was lower in slide positive children (100/2195, 4.6%) than in slide negative children (241/1444, 16.7%). Non-typhi Salmonella was the most frequently isolated organism (52/100 (52%) of organisms in slide positive children and 108/241 (45%) in slide negative children). Mortality among children with invasive bacterial disease was significantly higher (58/341, 17%) than in children without invasive bacterial disease (126/3298, 3.8%) (P<0.001), and this was true regardless of the presence of P falciparum parasitaemia. The sensitivity and specificity of WHO criteria in identifying invasive bacterial disease in slide positive children were 60.0% (95% confidence interval 58.0% to 62.1%) and 53.5% (51.4% to 55.6%), compared with 70.5% (68.2% to 72.9%) and 48.1% (45.6% to 50.7%) in slide negative children. In children with WHO criteria for invasive bacterial disease, only 99/211(47%) of isolated organisms were susceptible to the first recommended antimicrobial agent. CONCLUSIONS: In an area exposed to high transmission of malaria, current WHO guidelines failed to identify almost a third of children with invasive bacterial disease, and more than half of the organisms isolated were not susceptible to currently recommended antimicrobials. Improved diagnosis and treatment of invasive bacterial disease are needed to reduce childhood mortality.