Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Projections Onto Convex Sets through Particle Swarm Optimization and its application for remote sensing image restoration

Image restoration attempts to enhance images corrupted by noise and blurring effects. Iterative approaches can better control the restoration algorithm in order to find a compromise of restoring high details in smoothed regions without increasing the noise. Techniques based on Projections Onto Convex Sets (POCS) have been extensively used in the context of image restoration by projecting the solution onto hyperspaces until some convergence criteria be reached. It is expected that an enhanced image can be obtained at the final of an unknown number of projections. The number of convex sets and its combinations allow designing several image restoration algorithms based on POCS. Here, we address two convex sets: Row-Action Projections (RAP) and Limited Amplitude (LA). Although RAP and LA have already been used in image restoration domain, the former has a relaxation parameter (A) that strongly depends on the characteristics of the image that will be restored, i.e., wrong values of A can lead to poorly restoration results. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PS0)-POCS image restoration algorithm, in which the A value is obtained by PSO to be further used to restore images by POCS approach. Results showed that the proposed PSO-based restoration algorithm outperformed the widely used Wiener and Richardson-Lucy image restoration algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Retinal projections and neurochemical characterization of the pregeniculate nucleus of the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mesoscopy and scanning electron microscopy of the trabecular projections in the superior sagittal sinus

The trabecular projections of the human superior sagittal sinus were classified into types and subtypes according to spatial arrangement and shape. The horizontal and vertical projections direct laminar blood flow, while the conic type, which is avalvular, protects the openings of the superior cerebral veins in the superior sagittal sinus. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Orthogonal projections and bootstrap resampling procedures in the study of infraspecific variation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Employing 2D Projections for Fast Visual Exploration of Large Fiber Tracking Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The selective neurotoxin DSP-4 impairs the noradrenergic projections from the locus coeruleus to the inferior colliculus in rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Latin America and the Caribbean: projections 2006-2007

Includes bibliography

Proyecciones de población a largo plazo = Long-range population projections

Incluye Bibliografía

Proyecciones de población = Population projections

Incluye Bibliografía

Demographic models for projections of social sector demand

Includes bibliography

Proyecciones del desarrollo latinoamericano en los años ochenta = Latin American development projections for the 1980s

Incluye Bibliografía