Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Screening for leprosy in immigrants: A decision analysis model

Almost all leprosy cases reported in industrialized countries occur amongst immigrants or refugees from developing countries where leprosy continues to be an important health issue. Screening for leprosy is an important question for governments in countries with immigration and refugee programmes. A decision analysis framework is used to evaluate leprosy screening. The analysis uses a set of criteria and parameters regarding leprosy screening, and available data to estimate the number of cases which would be detected by a leprosy screening programme of immigrants from countries with different leprosy prevalences, compared with a policy of waiting for immigrants who develop symptomatic clinical diseases to present for health care. In a cohort of 100,000 immigrants from high leprosy prevalence regions (3.6/10,000), screening would detect 32 of the 42 cases which would arise in the destination country over the 14 years after migration; from medium prevalence areas (0.7/10,000) 6.3 of the total 8.1 cases would be detected, and from low prevalence regions (0.2/10,600) 1.8 of 2.3 cases. Using Australian data, the migrant mix would produce 74 leprosy cases from 10 years intake; screening would detect 54, and 19 would be diagnosed subsequently after migration. Screening would only produce significant case-yield amongst immigrants from regions or social groups with high leprosy prevalence. Since the number of immigrants to Australia from countries of higher endemnicity is not large routine leprosy screening would have a small impact on case incidence.

Incorporating demand-side aspects into regional policy: variations in the importance of private investment decision factors across regions

Most regional programs focus on the supply side of regions, emphasizing the attraction conditions offered, such as infrastructure, labor skills, tax incentives, etc. This study analyzes one aspect of the demand side, that is, how investment decisions of private firms are made by asking the question: ""Do corporations decide the same way on investments in different parts of the territory?"" The paper analyzes the investments of 373 large Brazilian firms during 1996-2004. Based on the investment decisions of these firms, the role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis. The regional influence is captured by explanatory variables representing regional and firm characteristics, and by interaction dummies between the region and the main investment determinants. The results indicate significant differences across regions in the importance of investment determinants. This information is important for regional development policy, because different mechanisms should be used in different regions to foster private investments.

Decision rules for egg recognition are related to functional roles and chemical cues in the queenless ant Dinoponera quadriceps

The capacity to distinguish colony members from strangers is a key component in social life. In social insects, this extends to the brood and involves discrimination of queen eggs. Chemical substances communicate colony affiliation for both adults and brood; thus, in theory, all colony members should be able to recognize fellow nestmates. In this study, we investigate the ability of Dinoponera quadriceps workers to discriminate nestmate and non-nestmate eggs based on cuticular hydrocarbon composition. We analyzed whether cuticular hydrocarbons present on the eggs provide cues of discrimination. The results show that egg recognition in D. quadriceps is related to both age and the functional role of workers. Brood care workers were able to distinguish nestmate from non-nestmate eggs, while callow and forager workers were unable to do so.

Australia-wide predictions of soil properties using decision trees

This paper describes the construction of Australia-wide soil property predictions from a compiled national soils point database. Those properties considered include pH, organic carbon, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, thickness. texture, and clay content. Many of these soil properties are used directly in environmental process modelling including global climate change models. Models are constructed at the 250-m resolution using decision trees. These relate the soil property to the environment through a suite of environmental predictors at the locations where measurements are observed. These models are then used to extend predictions to the continental extent by applying the rules derived to the exhaustively available environmental predictors. The methodology and performance is described in detail for pH and summarized for other properties. Environmental variables are found to be important predictors, even at the 250-m resolution at which they are available here as they can describe the broad changes in soil property.

The effect of defendant gender on juror decision-making

Research investigating the role of stereotypes in jury decision-making has typically considered stereotypes as acting as peripheral cues in determin ing the credibility of experts or likelihood of guilt of defendants — with counter-stereotypic courtroom participants faring less well. The present study investigated the possibility that the extent to which courtroom participants are stereotypic can alter the mode of information processing. Students (N = 78) read a transcript of a case in which either a male or female allegedly committed an armed robbery. As predicted, the female counter-stereotypic defendant was distracting and effortful processing only occurred when the defendant was male. The male was seen as more guilty and the prosecution's case was more convincing when the prosecution had a strong, but not weak, case. There were no effects of case strength for the female defendant. Results are discussed in terms of the role of stereotypes in the jury decision-making.

Unusual manifestations of tegumentary leishmaniasis in AIDS patients from the New World

Comorbidity from tegumentary leishmaniasis and AIDS is poorly characterized. To describe a series of patients coinfected with Leishmania and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Clinical records from patients were analysed by demographic data, clinical manifestations, diagnoses, treatments and outcomes. Fifteen cases of AIDS/tegumentary leishmaniasis were found. The diagnosis of leishmaniasis was confirmed by the detection of Leishmania amastigotes or antigens from the cutaneous or mucosal lesions. The mean CD4+ T-cell count was 84 cells mm(-3) (range 8-258) and all patients were classified as having AIDS according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A wide range of manifestations was found, varying from a single ulcer to multiple and polymorphic lesions. Mucosal lesions were present in 80% and cutaneous lesions in 73% of patients (53% with mucocutaneous form), disseminated lesions in 60% and genital lesions in 27% of patients. All patients received anti-Leishmania therapy and 53% showed relapses. Sixty-seven per cent received highly active antiretroviral therapy but showed no difference in outcomes and relapses compared with those not using medication. Forty per cent died during the study period. In these patients, the anti-Leishmania antibody and Montenegro skin test were useful in the diagnosis of leishmaniasis, probably because leishmaniasis preceded immunosuppression due to HIV infection. Clinical manifestations of tegumentary leishmaniasis in HIV-infected patients are diverse. Our data emphasize possible unusual manifestations of this disease in HIV-infected patients, particularly in severely immunosuppressed cases (< 200 CD4+ cells mm(-3)).

Knowledge, attitudes and motivations among blood donors in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Recruiting safe, volunteer blood donors requires understanding motivations for donating and knowledge and attitudes about HIV. We surveyed 1,600 persons presenting for blood donation at a large blood bank in Sao Paulo, Brazil using a self-administered, structured questionnaire, and classified motivations into three domains as well as categorizing persons by HIV test-seeking behavior. Motivations, in descending order, and their significant associations were: ""altruism``: female gender, volunteer donor and repeat donor status; ""direct appeal``: female gender, repeat donor status and age 21-50 years; ""selfinterest``: male gender, age under 20 years, first-time donor status and lower education. HIV test-seekers were more likely to give incorrect answers regarding HIV risk behavior and blood donation and the ability of antibody testing to detect recent HIV infections. Altruism is the main motivator for blood donation in Brazil; other motivators were associated with specific demographic subgroups. HIV test-seeking might be reduced by educational interventions.

A prognostic score for AIDS-related diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate a prognostic score for aids-related lymphoma (ARL). A retrospective study of 104 patients with ARL treated between January 1999 and December 2007 was conducted. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBC) was the most observed histological type (79.8%). The median CD4 lymphocyte count at lymphoma diagnosis was 125 cells per microliter. Treatment response could be evaluated in 83 (79.8%) patients, and 38 (45.8%) reached complete remission (CR); overall response rate was 51.8% (95 CI = 38.5-65.1%). After a median follow-up of 48 months, the 4-year overall survival (OS) rate among all patients was 35.8%, with a median survival time of 9.7 months (95% CI = 5.5-13.9 months). The survival risk factors observed in multivariate analysis (previous AIDS and high-intermediate/high international prognostic index (IPI)) were combined to construct a risk score, which divided the whole patient population in three distinct groups as low, intermediate, and high risk. When this score was applied to DLBC patients, a clear distinction in response rates and in OS could be demonstrated. Median disease-free survival (DFS) for patients that achieved CR was not reached, and DFS in 4 years was 83.0%. Our results show that the reduced OS observed could be explained by poor immune status with advanced stage of disease seen in our population of HIV-positive patients. Further studies will be needed to clarify the role of different treatment approaches for ARL in the setting of marked immunosuppression and to identify a group of patients to whom intensive therapy could be performed with a curative intent.

Behavior Profile of Family Members of Donors and Nondonors of Organs

Organ transplant shortage is a global problem caused by several factors, most of which are related to members of the family, who play it major role in the donation process. Objective. We sought to determine the most determinant features in the donor profile that relate to positive decisions versus refusal of donation. Material and Methods. Fifty-six families who were approached by the Organ Procurement Organization (OPO) from November 2004 to April 2006 agreed to participate in this work. To assess donor profiles, we used it structured interview. Results. Parental involvement directly in decisions about donation lead to significantly less frequent consent (P = .005), young donor age was associated with a reduced probability of donation (P = .002), violent death negatively influenced donation consent, excluding suicide (P = .004). Conclusion. The present study showed violent death, young patient age, and parental donation consent to be the most important factors that make it harder to obtain consent organ donation. When a collateral relative (sibling/uncle) or children were responsible for the donation decision, there was more success of consent.

Is alcohol a cofactor of HIV and AIDS? Evidence from immunological and behavioral studies

The authors aim to critically examine empirical research on the effects of alcohol on HIV and AIDS from the immunological and behavioral fields. In vitro immunological studies demonstrate that social drinking increases the susceptibility of human cells to HIV infection. Animal studies show that acute and chronic alcohol ingestion increases rare of progression from retrovirus to clinical illness. In humans with HIV, no experimental evidence shows that alcohol is a cofactor of AIDS. Findings from behavioral studies show that a link between social drinking and risk of HIV is weak. No experimental evidence demonstrates that chronic drinking influences rate and course of disease progression to AIDS in humans who are HIV+. It is premature to promote the role of alcohol as a cofactor in HIV and AIDS.

Language strategies in the attribution of blame for HIV and AIDS

This article examines the language strategies used in everyday explanation by young heterosexual adults to attribute blame for the transmission of HIV: Seventy-two-female and 60 male Australian university students took part in the study. They were formed into groups of four, with each group taking part in discussions about HIV: AIDS, and related matters. Transcripts were examined for instances of blaming, and a coding scheme for levels of attributed responsibility applied to those instances found. Language strategies of distancing self from HN and AIDS were then coded, including checks for who was blamed whether they were members of participants' ingroups or outgroups, and whether justifications were used. These findings are discussed in terms of positioning the self vis-a-vis HIV and AIDS, as well as the ways in which negative stereotypes were used in attributing blame to members of outgroups.