951 resultados para Probabilities
Resumo:
In one-component Abelian sandpile models, the toppling probabilities are independent quantities. This is not the case in multicomponent models. The condition of associativity of the underlying Abelian algebras imposes nonlinear relations among the toppling probabilities. These relations are derived for the case of two-component quadratic Abelian algebras. We show that Abelian sandpile models with two conservation laws have only trivial avalanches.
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We theoretically investigate negative differential resistance (NDR) for ballistic transport in semiconducting armchair graphene nanoribbon (aGNR) superlattices (5 to 20 barriers) at low bias voltages V(SD) < 500 mV. We combine the graphene Dirac Hamiltonian with the Landauer-Buttiker formalism to calculate the current I(SD) through the system. We find three distinct transport regimes in which NDR occurs: (i) a ""classical"" regime for wide layers, through which the transport across band gaps is strongly suppressed, leading to alternating regions of nearly unity and zero transmission probabilities as a function of V(SD) due to crossing of band gaps from different layers; (ii) a quantum regime dominated by superlattice miniband conduction, with current suppression arising from the misalignment of miniband states with increasing V(SD); and (iii) a Wannier-Stark ladder regime with current peaks occurring at the crossings of Wannier-Stark rungs from distinct ladders. We observe NDR at voltage biases as low as 10 mV with a high current density, making the aGNR superlattices attractive for device applications.
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The parallel mutation-selection evolutionary dynamics, in which mutation and replication are independent events, is solved exactly in the case that the Malthusian fitnesses associated to the genomes are described by the random energy model (REM) and by a ferromagnetic version of the REM. The solution method uses the mapping of the evolutionary dynamics into a quantum Ising chain in a transverse field and the Suzuki-Trotter formalism to calculate the transition probabilities between configurations at different times. We find that in the case of the REM landscape the dynamics can exhibit three distinct regimes: pure diffusion or stasis for short times, depending on the fitness of the initial configuration, and a spin-glass regime for large times. The dynamic transition between these dynamical regimes is marked by discontinuities in the mean-fitness as well as in the overlap with the initial reference sequence. The relaxation to equilibrium is described by an inverse time decay. In the ferromagnetic REM, we find in addition to these three regimes, a ferromagnetic regime where the overlap and the mean-fitness are frozen. In this case, the system relaxes to equilibrium in a finite time. The relevance of our results to information processing aspects of evolution is discussed.
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Time-resolved Z-scan measurements were performed in a Nd(3+)-doped Sr(0.61)Ba(0.39)Nb(2)O(6) laser crystal through ferroelectric phase transition. Both the differences in electronic polarizability (Delta alpha(p)) and cross section (Delta sigma) of the neodymium ions have been found to be strongly modified in the surroundings of the transition temperature. This observed unusual behavior is concluded to be caused by the remarkable influence that the structural changes associated to the ferro-to-paraelectric phase transition has on the 4f -> 5d transition probabilities. The maximum polarizability change value Delta alpha(p)=1.2x10(-25) cm(3) obtained at room temperature is the largest ever measured for a Nd(3+)-doped transparent material.
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Background: Feature selection is a pattern recognition approach to choose important variables according to some criteria in order to distinguish or explain certain phenomena (i.e., for dimensionality reduction). There are many genomic and proteomic applications that rely on feature selection to answer questions such as selecting signature genes which are informative about some biological state, e. g., normal tissues and several types of cancer; or inferring a prediction network among elements such as genes, proteins and external stimuli. In these applications, a recurrent problem is the lack of samples to perform an adequate estimate of the joint probabilities between element states. A myriad of feature selection algorithms and criterion functions have been proposed, although it is difficult to point the best solution for each application. Results: The intent of this work is to provide an open-source multiplataform graphical environment for bioinformatics problems, which supports many feature selection algorithms, criterion functions and graphic visualization tools such as scatterplots, parallel coordinates and graphs. A feature selection approach for growing genetic networks from seed genes ( targets or predictors) is also implemented in the system. Conclusion: The proposed feature selection environment allows data analysis using several algorithms, criterion functions and graphic visualization tools. Our experiments have shown the software effectiveness in two distinct types of biological problems. Besides, the environment can be used in different pattern recognition applications, although the main concern regards bioinformatics tasks.
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Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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We consider a Random Walk in Random Environment (RWRE) moving in an i.i.d. random field of obstacles. When the particle hits an obstacle, it disappears with a positive probability. We obtain quenched and annealed bounds on the tails of the survival time in the general d-dimensional case. We then consider a simplified one-dimensional model (where transition probabilities and obstacles are independent and the RWRE only moves to neighbour sites), and obtain finer results for the tail of the survival time. In addition, we study also the ""mixed"" probability measures (quenched with respect to the obstacles and annealed with respect to the transition probabilities and vice-versa) and give results for tails of the survival time with respect to these probability measures. Further, we apply the same methods to obtain bounds for the tails of hitting times of Branching Random Walks in Random Environment (BRWRE).
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We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the algorithm Context, provided that the noise is small enough.
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We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.
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Chagas disease is still a major public health problem in Latin America. Its causative agent, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be typed into three major groups, T. cruzi I, T. cruzi II and hybrids. These groups each have specific genetic characteristics and epidemiological distributions. Several highly virulent strains are found in the hybrid group; their origin is still a matter of debate. The null hypothesis is that the hybrids are of polyphyletic origin, evolving independently from various hybridization events. The alternative hypothesis is that all extant hybrid strains originated from a single hybridization event. We sequenced both alleles of genes encoding EF-1 alpha, actin and SSU rDNA of 26 T. cruzi strains and DHFR-TS and TR of 12 strains. This information was used for network genealogy analysis and Bayesian phylogenies. We found T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II to be monophyletic and that all hybrids had different combinations of T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II haplotypes plus hybrid-specific haplotypes. Bootstrap values (networks) and posterior probabilities (Bayesian phylogenies) of clades supporting the monophyly of hybrids were far below the 95% confidence interval, indicating that the hybrid group is polyphyletic. We hypothesize that T. cruzi I and T. cruzi II are two different species and that the hybrids are extant representatives of independent events of genome hybridization, which sporadically have sufficient fitness to impact on the epidemiology of Chagas disease.
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AIM: We sought to evaluate the predictive validity of the Waterlow Scale in hospitalized patients. SUBJECTS AND SETTING: The study was conducted at a general private hospital with 220 beds and a mean time of hospitalization of 7.4 days and a mean occupation rate of approximately 80%. Adult patients with a Braden Scale score of 18 or less and a Waterlow Scale score of 16 or more were studied. The sample consisted of 98 patients with a mean age of 71.1 +/- 15.5 years. METHODS: Skin assessment and scoring by using the Waterlow and Braden scales were completed on alternate days. Patients were examined at least 3 times to be considered for analysis. The data were submitted to sensitivity and specificity analysis by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and positive (+LR) and negative (-LR) likelihood ratios. RESULTS: The cutoff scores were 17, 20, and 20 in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. Sensitivity was 71.4%, 85.7%, and 85.7% and specificity was 67.0%, 40.7%, and 32.9%, respectively. Analysis of the area under the ROC curve revealed good accuracy (0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.35-0.93) only for the cutoff score 17 in the first assessment. The results also showed probabilities of 14%, 10%, and 9% for the development of pressure ulcer when the test results were positive (+LR) and of 3% (-LR) when the test results were negative for the cutoff scores in the first, second, and third assessment, respectively. CONCLUSION: The Waterlow Scale achieved good predictive validity in predicting pressure ulcer in hospitalized patients when a cutoff score of 17 was used in the first assessment.
Resumo:
In this study the hypothesis that interceptive movements are controlled on the basis of expectancy of time to target arrival was tested. The study was conducted through assessment of temporal errors and kinematics of interceptive movements to a moving virtual target. Initial target velocity was kept unchanged in part of the trials, and in the others it was decreased 300 ms before the due time of target arrival at the interception position, increasing in 100 ms time to target arrival. Different probabilities of velocity decrease ranging from 25 to 100% were compared. The results revealed that while there were increasing errors between probabilities of 25 and 75% for unchanged target velocity, the opposite relationship was observed for target velocity decrease. Kinematic analysis indicated that movement timing adjustments to target velocity decrease were made online. These results support the conception that visuomotor integration in the interception of moving targets is mediated by an internal forward model whose weights can be flexibly adjusted according to expectancy of time to target arrival.
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This paper analyses an optical network architecture composed by an arrangement of nodes equipped with multi-granular optical cross-connects (MG-OXCs) in addition to the usual optical cross-connects (OXCs). Then, selected network nodes can perform both waveband as well as traffic grooming operations and our goal is to assess the improvement on network performance brought by these additional capabilities. Specifically, the influence of the MG-OXC multi-granularity on the blocking probability is evaluated for 16 classes of service over a network based on the NSFNet topology. A mechanism of fairness in bandwidth capacity is also added to the connection admission control to manage the blocking probabilities of all kind of bandwidth requirements. Comprehensive computational simulation are carried out to compare eight distinct node architectures, showing that an adequate combination of waveband and single-wavelength ports of the MG-OXCs and OXCs allow a more efficient operation of a WDM optical network carrying multi-rate traffic.
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This paper presents concentration inequalities and laws of large numbers under weak assumptions of irrelevance that are expressed using lower and upper expectations. The results build upon De Cooman and Miranda`s recent inequalities and laws of large numbers. The proofs indicate connections between the theory of martingales and concepts of epistemic and regular irrelevance. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.