Graphical method to determine the parameters of the two-parameter fracture model for concrete

To evaluate the parameters in the two-parameter fracture model, i.e. the critical stress intensity factor and critical crack tip opening displacement for the fracture of plain concrete in Mode 1 for the given test configuration and geometry, considerable computational effort is necessary. A simple graphical method has been proposed using normalized fracture parameters for the three-point bend (3PB) notched specimen and the double-edged notched (DEN) specimen. A similar graphical method is proposed to compute the maximum load carrying capacity of a specimen, using the critical fracture parameters both for 3PB and DEN configurations.

Modified lattice model for mode-I fracture analysis of notched plain concrete beam using probabilistic approach

A modified lattice model using finite element method has been developed to study the mode-I fracture analysis of heterogeneous materials like concrete. In this model, the truss members always join at points where aggregates are located which are modeled as plane stress triangular elements. The truss members are given the properties of cement mortar matrix randomly, so as to represent the randomness of strength in concrete. It is widely accepted that the fracture of concrete structures should not be based on strength criterion alone, but should be coupled with energy criterion. Here, by incorporating the strain softening through a parameter ‘α’, the energy concept is introduced. The softening branch of load-displacement curves was successfully obtained. From the sensitivity study, it was observed that the maximum load of a beam is most sensitive to the tensile strength of mortar. It is seen that by varying the values of properties of mortar according to a normal random distribution, better results can be obtained for load-displacement diagram.

A probabilistic model for fatigue crack propagation analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is presented. In the model, the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables, and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshore structural steel under constant amplitude loading. Furthermore, by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted. The tests are conducted to verify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.

An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Local Circuit Model of Learned Straitial and Dopamine Cell Responses under Probabilistic Schedules of Reward

Before choosing, it helps to know both the expected value signaled by a predictive cue and the associated uncertainty that the reward will be forthcoming. Recently, Fiorillo et al. (2003) found the dopamine (DA) neurons of the SNc exhibit sustained responses related to the uncertainty that a cure will be followed by reward, in addition to phasic responses related to reward prediction errors (RPEs). This suggests that cue-dependent anticipations of the timing, magnitude, and uncertainty of rewards are learned and reflected in components of the DA signals broadcast by SNc neurons. What is the minimal local circuit model that can explain such multifaceted reward-related learning? A new computational model shows how learned uncertainty responses emerge robustly on single trial along with phasic RPE responses, such that both types of DA responses exhibit the empirically observed dependence on conditional probability, expected value of reward, and time since onset of the reward-predicting cue. The model includes three major pathways for computing: immediate expected values of cures, timed predictions of reward magnitudes (and RPEs), and the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The first two model pathways refine those previously modeled by Brown et al. (1999). A third, newly modeled, pathway is formed by medium spiny projection neurons (MSPNs) of the matrix compartment of the striatum, whose axons co-release GABA and a neuropeptide, substance P, both at synapses with GABAergic neurons in the SNr and with the dendrites (in SNr) of DA neurons whose somas are in ventral SNc. Co-release enables efficient computation of sustained DA uncertainty responses that are a non-monotonic function of the conditonal probability that a reward will follow the cue. The new model's incorporation of a striatal microcircuit allowed it to reveals that variability in striatal cholinergic transmission can explain observed difference, between monkeys, in the amplitutude of the non-monotonic uncertainty function. Involvement of matriceal MSPNs and striatal cholinergic transmission implpies a relation between uncertainty in the cue-reward contigency and action-selection functions of the basal ganglia. The model synthesizes anatomical, electrophysiological and behavioral data regarding the midbrain DA system in a novel way, by relating the ability to compute uncertainty, in parallel with other aspects of reward contingencies, to the unique distribution of SP inputs in ventral SN.

Probabilistic forecasting: why model imperfection is a poison pill

This volume is a serious attempt to open up the subject of European philosophy of science to real thought, and provide the structural basis for the interdisciplinary development of its specialist fields, but also to provoke reflection on the idea of ‘European philosophy of science’. This efforts should foster a contemporaneous reflection on what might be meant by philosophy of science in Europe and European philosophy of science, and how in fact awareness of it could assist philosophers interpret and motivate their research through a stronger collective identity. The overarching aim is to set the background for a collaborative project organising, systematising, and ultimately forging an identity for, European philosophy of science by creating research structures and developing research networks across Europe to promote its development.