Predictors of awakening from postanoxic status epilepticus after therapeutic hypothermia.

BACKGROUND: Postanoxic status epilepticus (PSE) is considered a predictor of fatal outcome and therefore not intensively treated; however, some patients have had favorable outcomes. The aim of this study was to identify favorable predictors for awakening beyond vegetative state in PSE. METHODS: We studied six subjects treated with hypothermia improving beyond vegetative state after cerebral anoxia, despite PSE. They were among a cohort of patients treated for anoxic encephalopathy with therapeutic hypothermia in our institution between October 1999 and May 2006 (retrospectively, 3/107 patients) and June 2006 and May 2008 (prospectively, 3/74 patients). PSE was defined by clinical and EEG criteria. Outcome was assessed according to the Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). RESULTS: All improving patients had preserved brainstem reflexes, cortical somatosensory evoked potentials, and reactive EEG background during PSE. Half of them had myoclonic PSE, while three had nonconvulsive PSE. In the prospective arm, 3/28 patients with PSE showed this clinical-electrophysiologic profile; all awoke. Treatments consisted of benzodiazepines, various antiepileptic drugs, and propofol. One subject died of pneumonia in a minimally conscious state, one patient returned to baseline (CPC1), three had moderate impairment (CPC2), and one remained dependent (CPC3). Patients with nonconvulsive PSE showed a better prognosis than subjects with myoclonic PSE (p = 0.042). CONCLUSION: Patients with postanoxic status epilepticus and preserved brainstem reactions, somatosensory evoked potentials, and EEG reactivity may have a favorable outcome if their condition is treated as status epilepticus.

Early major worsening in ischemic stroke: predictors and outcome.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate the characteristics and outcome of patients suffering early major worsening (EMW) after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and assess the parameters associated with it. METHODS: All consecutive patients with AIS in the ASTRAL registry until 10/2010 were included. EMW was defined as an NIHSS increase of ≥8 points within the first 24 h after admission. The Bootstrap version of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and the χ(2)-test were used for the comparison of continuous and categorical covariates, respectively, between patients with and without EMW. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of EMW. RESULTS: Among 2155 patients, 43 (2.0 %) had an EMW. EMW was independently associated with hemorrhagic transformation (OR 22.6, 95 % CI 9.4-54.2), cervical artery dissection (OR 9.5, 95 % CI 4.4-20.6), initial dysarthria (OR 3.7, 95 % CI 1.7-8.0), and intravenous thrombolysis (OR 2.1, 95 % CI 1.1-4.3), whereas a negative association was identified with initial eye deviation (OR 0.4, 95 % CI 0.2-0.9). Favorable outcome at 3 and 12 months was less frequent in patients with EMW compared to patients without (11.6 vs. 55.3 % and 16.3 vs. 50.7 %, respectively), and case fatality was higher (53.5 vs. 12.9 % and 55.8 vs. 16.8 %, respectively). Stroke recurrence within 3 months in surviving patients was similar between patients with and without EMW (9.3 vs. 9.0 %, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Worsening of ≥8 points in the NIHSS score during the first 24 h in AIS patients is related to cervical artery dissection and hemorrhagic transformation. It justifies urgent repeat parenchymal and arterial imaging. Both conditions may be influenced by targeted interventions in the acute phase of stroke.

Predictors of favorable results in pulmonary tuberculosis treatment (Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, 2001-2004)

Based on data available in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, predictive factors of favorable results were identified in the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis, diagnosed between 2001 and 2004 and living in Recife-PE, Brazil. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression methods were used. In multivariate analysis, the following factors remained: Age (years), 0 to 9 (OR=4.27; p=0.001) and 10 to 19 (OR=1.78; p=0.011), greater chance of cure than over 60; Education (years), 8 to 11 (OR=1.52; p=0.049), greater chance of cure than no education; Type of entry, new cases (OR=3.31; p<0.001) and relapse (OR=3.32; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than restart after abandonment; Time (months) 2, 5-|6 (OR=9.15; p<0.001); 6-|9 (OR=27.28; p<0.001) and More than 9 (OR=24.78; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than less than 5; Health Unit District, DS I (OR=1.60; p=0.018) and DS IV (OR=2.87; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than DS VI.

Long-term outcome of congenital aortic valve stenosis : predictors of reintervention

Objectif Evaluer l'évolution à long-terme d'une population de patients pédiatriques souffrant de sténose aortique congénitale et ayant subi une intervention chirurgicale sur cette valve, et déterminer les facteurs de risques associés à une ré-intervention. Patients et méthode De 1985 à 2009, 77 patients, en moyenne âgés de 5.8 ± 5-6 ans, ont été suivis dans notre Service durant 14.8 ± 9-1 années. Résultats La première intervention montre d'excellents résultats avec 86% des patients ayant un gradient aortique résiduel < 50 mmHg et seulement 7% avec une nouvelle fuite aortique >1. La survie à long terme est de 91% A 25 ans. A un intervalle de 7.6 ± 5-3 ans, 30 patients 011t nécessité une ré-intervention (39%), principalement à cause d'une récidive de la sténose aortique. Le pourcentage de patients libre de ré¬intervention était de 97, 89, 75, 53, and 42% à respectivement 1, 10,15, 20, et 25 ans. Les facteurs de risques cle ré-interventions étaient le gradient aortique residuel plus élevé (p=0.00 01), la fuite aortique post-intervention >1 (p=0.02), la valvuloplasty au ballon préalable (p-0.04) et l'épaisseur augmentée de la paroi postérieure du ventricule gauche (p=o.i). Conclusions L'intervention chirurgicale sur la valve aortique est un procédé sûr et efficace pour les sténoses aortiques congénitales et démontre d'excellents résultats au niveau de la survie. Cependant le taux de ré-intervention est élevé et influencé par le gradient aortique résiduel plus élevé, la fuite aortique post-intervention >1, la valvuloplasty au ballon préalable et l'épaisseur augmentée de la paroi postérieure du ventricule gauche. L'étude démontre qu'un suivi à long-terme est recommandé pour ces patients.

Predictors of political orientation among US-born Mexican Americans: cultural identification, acculturation attitudes and socioeconomic status

With each passing election, U.S. political campaigns have renewed their efforts in courting the “Latino vote,” yet the Latino population is not a culturally homogenous voting bloc. This study examined how cultural identifications and acculturation attitudes in U.S. born Mexican Americans interacted with socioeconomic status (SES) to predict political orientation. Individuals who held stronger Mexican identity and supported biculturalism as an acculturation strategy had a more liberal orientation, while belonging to a higher SES group and holding stronger assimilation attitudes predicted a less liberal orientation. Mexican cultural identification interacted with SES such that those who held a weaker Mexican identity, but came from a higher social class were less liberal and more moderate in their political orientation. Weak Mexican identification and higher SES also predicted weaker endorsement of bicultural acculturation attitudes, which in turn, mediated the differences in political orientation. The acceptance of one’s ethnic identity and endorsement of bicultural attitudes predicted a more liberal political orientation. In light of these findings, political candidates should be cautious in how they pander to Latino constituents—referencing the groups’ ethnic culture or customs may distance constituents who are not strongly identified with their ethnic culture.

Predictors of asthma control in everyday clinical practice in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVE: To identify predictors of improved asthma control under conditions of everyday practice in Switzerland. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A subgroup of 1380 patients with initially inadequately controlled asthma was defined from a cohort of 1893 asthmatic patients (mean age 45.3 + or - 19.2 years) recruited by 281 office-based physicians who participated in a previously-conducted asthma control survey in Switzerland. Multiple regression techniques were used to identify predictors of improved asthma control, defined as an absolute decrease of 0.5 points or more in the Asthma Control Questionnaire between the baseline (V1) and follow-up visit (V2). RESULTS: Asthma control between V1 and V2 improved in 85.7%. Add-on treatment with montelukast was reported in 82.9% of the patients. Patients with worse asthma control at V1 and patients with good self-reported adherence to therapy had significantly higher chances of improved asthma control (OR = 1.24 and 1.73, 95% CI 1.18-1.29 and 1.20-2.50, respectively). Compared to adding montelukast and continuing the same inhaled corticosteroid/fixed combination (ICS/FC) dose, the addition of montelukast to an increased ICS/FC dose yielded a 4 times higher chance of improved asthma control (OR = 3.84, 95% CI 1.58-9.29). Significantly, withholding montelukast halved the probability of achieving improved asthma control (OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.33-078). The probability of improved asthma control was almost 5 times lower among patients in whom FEV(1) was measured compared to those in whom it was not (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.09-0.55). Patients with severe persistent asthma also had a significantly lower probability of improved control (OR = 0.15, 95% CI = 0.07-0.32), as did older patients (OR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.97-0.99). Subgroup analyses which excluded patients whose asthma may have been misdiagnosed and might in reality have been chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) showed comparable results. CONCLUSIONS: Under conditions of everyday clinical practice, the addition of montelukast to ICS/FC and good adherence to therapy increased the likelihood of achieving better asthma control at the follow-up visit, while older age and more severe asthma significantly decreased it.

Recurrent stroke predictors differ in medically treated patients with pathogenic vs. other PFOs.

OBJECTIVE: To examine predictors of stroke recurrence in patients with a high vs a low likelihood of having an incidental patent foramen ovale (PFO) as defined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score. METHODS: Patients in the RoPE database with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO were classified as having a probable PFO-related stroke (RoPE score of >6, n = 647) and others (RoPE score of ≤6 points, n = 677). We tested 15 clinical, 5 radiologic, and 3 echocardiographic variables for associations with stroke recurrence using Cox survival models with component database as a stratification factor. An interaction with RoPE score was checked for the variables that were significant. RESULTS: Follow-up was available for 92%, 79%, and 57% at 1, 2, and 3 years. Overall, a higher recurrence risk was associated with an index TIA. For all other predictors, effects were significantly different in the 2 RoPE score categories. For the low RoPE score group, but not the high RoPE score group, older age and antiplatelet (vs warfarin) treatment predicted recurrence. Conversely, echocardiographic features (septal hypermobility and a small shunt) and a prior (clinical) stroke/TIA were significant predictors in the high but not low RoPE score group. CONCLUSION: Predictors of recurrence differ when PFO relatedness is classified by the RoPE score, suggesting that patients with CS and PFO form a heterogeneous group with different stroke mechanisms. Echocardiographic features were only associated with recurrence in the high RoPE score group.

Predictors of Weight Change in Sedentary Smokers Receiving a Standard Smoking Cessation Intervention.

INTRODUCTION: Quitting smoking is associated with weight gain, which may threaten motivation to engage or sustain a quit attempt. The pattern of weight gained by smokers treated according to smoking cessation guidelines has been poorly described. We aimed to determine the weight gained after smoking cessation and its predictors, by smokers receiving individual counseling and nicotine replacement therapies for smoking cessation. METHODS: We performed an ancillary analysis of a randomized controlled trial assessing moderate physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation in addition to standard treatment in sedentary adult smokers. We used mixed longitudinal models to describe the evolution of weight over time, thus allowing us to take every participant into account. We also fitted a model to assess the effect of smoking status and reported use of nicotine replacement therapy at each time point. We adjusted for intervention group, sex, age, nicotine dependence, and education. RESULTS: In the whole cohort, weight increased in the first 3 months, and stabilized afterwards. Mean 1-year weight gain was 3.3kg for women and 3.9kg for men (p = .002). Higher nicotine dependence and male sex were associated with more weight gained during abstinence. Age over median was associated with continuing weight gain during relapse. There was a nonsignificant trend toward slower weight gain with use of nicotine replacement therapies. CONCLUSION: Sedentary smokers receiving a standard smoking cessation intervention experience a moderate weight gain, limited to the first 3 months. Older age, male sex, and higher nicotine dependence are predictors of weight gain.

Predictors of red blood cell transfusion after cardiac surgery: a prospective cohort study

Abstract OBJECTIVE To identify predictors of red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) after cardiac surgery. METHOD A prospective cohort study performed with 323 adults after cardiac surgery, from April to December of 2013. A data collection instrument was constructed by the researchers containing factors associated with excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery, as found in the literature, for investigation in the immediate postoperative period. The relationship between risk factors and the outcome was assessed by univariate analysis and logistic regression. RESULTS The factors associated with RBCT in the immediate postoperative period included lower height and weight, decreased platelet count, lower hemoglobin level, higher prevalence of platelet count <150x10 3/mm3, lower volume of protamine, longer duration of anesthesia, higher prevalence of intraoperative RBCT, lower body temperature, higher heart rate and higher positive end-expiratory pressure. The independent predictor was weight <66.5Kg. CONCLUSION Factors associated with RBCT in the immediate postoperative period of cardiac surgery were found. The independent predictor was weight.

Clinical predictors of prophylaxis use prior to the onset of acute venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients SWIss Venous ThromboEmbolism Registry (SWIVTER).

BACKGROUND: We investigated clinical predictors of appropriate prophylaxis prior to the onset of venous thromboembolism (VTE). METHODS: In 14 Swiss hospitals, 567 consecutive patients (306 medical, 261 surgical) with acute VTE and hospitalization < 30 days prior to the VTE event were enrolled. RESULTS: Prophylaxis was used in 329 (58%) patients within 30 days prior to the VTE event. Among the medical patients, 146 (48%) received prophylaxis, and among the surgical patients, 183 (70%) received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). The indication for prophylaxis was present in 262 (86%) medical patients and in 217 (83%) surgical patients. Among the patients with an indication for prophylaxis, 135 (52%) of the medical patients and 165 (76%) of the surgical patients received prophylaxis (P < 0.001). Admission to the intensive care unit [odds ratio (OR) 3.28, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.94-5.57], recent surgery (OR 2.28, 95% CI 1.51-3.44), bed rest > 3 days (OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.45-3.09), obesity (OR 2.01, 95% CI 1.03-3.90), prior deep vein thrombosis (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.24) and prior pulmonary embolism (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.05-2.26) were independent predictors of prophylaxis. In contrast, cancer (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.89-1.25), age (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.98-1.01), acute heart failure (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.79-1.63) and acute respiratory failure (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.89-1.59) were not predictive of prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: Although an indication for prophylaxis was present in most patients who suffered acute VTE, almost half did not receive any form of prophylaxis. Future efforts should focus on the improvement of prophylaxis for hospitalized patients, particularly in patients with cancer, acute heart or respiratory failure, and in the elderly.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Severe stroke: patient profile and predictors of favorable outcome.

Summary.  Background:  Severe stroke carries high rates of mortality and morbidity. The aims of this study were to determine the characteristics of patients who initially presented with severe ischemic stroke, and to identify acute and subacute predictors of favorable clinical outcome in these patients. Methods:  An observational cohort study, Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL), was analyzed, and all patients presenting with severe stroke - defined as a National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score of ≥ 20 on admission - were compared with all other patients. In a multivariate analysis, associations with demographic, clinical, pathophysiologic, metabolic and neuroimaging factors were determined. Furthermore, we analyzed predictors of favorable outcome (modified Rankin scale score of ≤ 3 at 3 months) in the subgroup of severe stroke patients. Results:  Of 1915 consecutive patients, 243 (12.7%) presented with severe stroke. This was significantly associated with cardio-embolic stroke mechanism (odds ratio [OR] 1.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-2.54), unknown stroke onset (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.14-4.83), more neuroimaging signs of early ischemia (mostly computed tomography; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.79-3.92), arterial occlusions on acute imaging (OR 27.01, 95% CI 11.5-62.9), fewer chronic radiologic infarcts (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.26-0.72), lower hemoglobin concentration (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.96-0.99), and higher white cell count (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11). In the 68 (28%) patients with favorable outcomes despite presenting with severe stroke, this was predicted by lower age (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.97), preceding cerebrovascular events (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.01-8.97), hypolipemic pretreatment (OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.34-10.90), lower acute temperature (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.78), lower subacute glucose concentration (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.56-0.97), and spontaneous or treatment-induced recanalization (OR 4.51, 95% CI 1.96-10.41). Conclusions:  Severe stroke presentation is predicted by multiple clinical, radiologic and metabolic variables, several of which are modifiable. Predictors in the 28% of patients with favorable outcome despite presenting with severe stroke include hypolipemic pretreatment, lower acute temperature, lower glucose levels at 24 h, and arterial recanalization.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.