The predictive value of psychological assessment of candidates for gastric bypass: A medical chart review

Background and Objectives: Guidelines for bariatric surgery demand a psychological evaluation of applicants. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the presence of "psychological risk factors" predicts postoperative weight loss after gastric bypass. Methods: Medical records of obese women who underwent bariatric surgery between 2000 and 2004 were reviewed. Psychological assessment consisted of a one-hour semi-structured interview, summarized in a written report. Anthropometric assessment at baseline and 6,12,18 and 24 months after surgery included body weight, height and body mass index. Results: The mean BMI of included patients (N = 92) was 46.2 + 6,3 kg/m(2) (range 38.4-69.7). Based on the psychological assessment, 27% (N = 25) of the patients were classified as having "psychological risk factors" and 28% (N = 26) were diagnosed with a psychiatric diagnosis, most often major depression. Two years after gastric bypass, 16% of patients with "psychological risk factors" achieved an excellent result (%EWL > 75) versus 39% of those without (p < 0.05). About 1 out of 4 patients was in postoperative psychiatric treatment, but only half of them were identified as having "psychological risk factors" at baseline. Weight loss of patients initiating a psychiatric treatment only after surgery was less than of patients who continued psychiatric treatment already initiated before surgery (55.7 + 14.8 versus 66.5 + 14.2 %EWL). Conclusions: A single semi-structured psychological interview may identify patients who are at risk for diminished postoperative weight loss; however, psychological assessment did not identify those patients who were in need of a psychiatric postoperative treatment.

Is intra-operative blood fllow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula ?

Rapport de Synthèse : Introduction : Depuis plus de 50 ans, les fistules artérioveineuses radiocéphaliques (FAV) restent le meilleur accès d'hémodialyse en termes de perméabilité et de complications. Néanmoins, l'échec précoce dû aux thromboses ou à la non maturation entraîne leur abandon chez un nombre significatif de patients. Cette étude prospective est destinée à investiguer la mesure peropératoire du débit sanguin dans les FAV comme valeur prédictive d'échec précoce. Méthode : Nous avons sélectionné des patients nécessitant la confection d'une FAV pour hémodialyse en se basant sur le repérage veineux effectué par ultrason dans la période préopératoire. La mesure du débit sanguin dans la FAV a été réalisée systématiquement après la réalisation de l'anastomose en utilisant une sonde mesurant le temps de transit des globules rouges. Durant le suivi, le débit a été estimé par ultrason à des intervalles réguliers. Résultats : Nous avons réalisés 58 FAV chez 58 patients avec un suivi moyen de 30 jours. La thrombose et non maturation a été observée chez 8 patients (14%) et 4 patients (7%) respectivement. La valeur de débit peropératoire des fistules sans échec précoce était significativement plus élevée que dans les fistules avec échec précoce (230 v. 98 mL/min ; Ρ = 0.007), tout comme à une semaine (753 vs 228 mL/min ; P=0.0008) et 4 semaines (915 vs 245 mL/min, P<0.0001j. La mesure du débit avec une valeur seuil à 120 mL/min présente une sensibilité de 67%, une spécificité de 75% et une valeur prédictive positive de 91%. Conclusions : Un débit sanguin < 120mL/min a une bonne valeur prédictive positive d'échec précoce dans les FAV. Durant la procédure, cette valeur seuil, doit être utilisée pour sélectionner de manière appropriée les FAV nécessitant durant la même intervention une correction immédiate afin d'améliorer le débit. Une étude consécutive devra investiguer les origines des débits faibles des FAV objectivés durant leur confection.

Impaired left ventricular function as a predictive factor for mid-term survival in octogenarians after primary coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

Predictive value of anti-neutrophil cygtoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in small vessel vasculitis

Résumé Valeur prédictive des anticorps dirigés contre le cytoplasme des neutrophiles (ANCA) dans les vasculites des vaisseaux de petit calibre But du travail : Les vasculites sont des pathologies le plus souvent sévères et parfois létales ; elles nécessitent une reconnaissance et un traitement précoces. Il est donc utile de pouvoir disposer de marqueurs diagnostiques, et éventuellement de marqueurs qui puissent prédire l'activité de la maladie. Les « antineutrophil cytoplasm antibodies » (ANCA) constituent une famille d'autoanticorps dirigés contre des antigènes du cytoplasme des neutrophiles, cellules clés du processus inflammatoire au cours des vasculites. De nombreuses études ont tenté de préciser l'utilité des ANCA dans le diagnostic et le suivi des vasculites avec des résultats contradictoires. Le but de ce travail a été de passer en revue l'évolution clinique des patients suivis dans notre service pour une vasculite à ANCA et évaluer la valeur prédictive des ANCA comme marqueur de récidive. Méthode: Les dossiers médicaux de 36 patients, suivis à notre consultation ambulatoire d'immunologie et allergie du CHUV pour une vasculite à ANCA entre janvier 1990 et décembre 2001, ont été analysés de manière rétrospective afin d'établir une base de données. Les données démographiques, le type de vasculite (granulomatose de Wegener ou polyangéite microscopique) et ses caractéristiques (organes touchés), les traitements reçus, les dosages des ANCA (par immunofluorescence et par ELISA avec détermination des anti-PR3 et/ou anti-MPO), et l'évolution clinique (récidive/rémission) ont été considérés. La valeur pronostique des ANCA dans notre population a été calculée utilisant les valeurs prédictives positive et négative, la likelihood et les odds ratios. La valeur statistique a été examinée par les tests Chi-square test ou Fisher's exact test (valeur significative définie comme p <0.05) à l'aide du programme GraphPad Instat software version 3, San Diego, CA. Résultats : Vingt-trois patients atteints d'une maladie de Wegener et treize d'une polyangéite microscopique ont été suivis pour une durée médiane de cinq ans (entre 1 mois et 16 ans). La plupart des patients ont été traités avec des corticostéroïdes associés à du cyclophosphamide. Une rémission a été obtenue chez 21 patients (91 %) atteints d'une maladie de Wegener, mais 74% ont présenté par la suite une récidive. Tous les patients atteints d'une polyangéite microscopique sont entrés en rémission et 33% ont par la suite récidivé. Une élévation persistante (définie comme supérieure à 6 mois) des ANCA ne s'est pas révélée associée à un risque statistiquement significatif de récidive (p=0.14). En revanche, une élévation soudaine du taux des ANCA s'est démontrée prédictive d'une récidive (table 3). Conclusion : Durant le suivi de certaines vasculites, comme la granulomatose de Wegener et la polyangéite microscopique une élévation des ANCA doit faire redouter une exacerbation de la maladie et, par conséquent, justifie une surveillance accrue.

The MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II study of common practices for the development and validation of microarray-based predictive models.

Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers in resected colon cancer: current status and future perspectives for integrating genomics into biomarker discovery.

The number of agents that are potentially effective in the adjuvant treatment of locally advanced resectable colon cancer is increasing. Consequently, it is important to ascertain which subgroups of patients will benefit from a specific treatment. Despite more than two decades of research into the molecular genetics of colon cancer, there is a lack of prognostic and predictive molecular biomarkers with proven utility in this setting. A secondary objective of the Pan European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer-3 trial, which compared irinotecan in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in the postoperative treatment of stage III and stage II colon cancer patients, was to undertake a translational research study to assess a panel of putative prognostic and predictive markers in a large colon cancer patient cohort. The Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 trial, in a similar design, also investigated the use of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in this setting. In this article, the authors, who are coinvestigators from these trials and performed similar investigations of biomarker discovery in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer, review the current status of biomarker research in this field, drawing on their experiences and considering future strategies for biomarker discovery in the postgenomic era.

Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

Predictive Biomarkers to Chemoradiation in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

There has been a high local recurrence rate in rectal cancer. Besides improvements in surgical techniques, both neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and long-course chemoradiation improve oncological results. Approximately 40-60% of rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation achieve some degree of pathologic response. However, there is no effective method of predicting which patients will respond to neoadjuvant treatment. Recent studies have evaluated the potential of genetic biomarkers to predict outcome in locally advanced rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation. The articles produced by the PubMed search were reviewed for those specifically addressing a genetic profile's ability to predict response to neoadjuvant treatment in rectal cancer. Although tissue gene microarray profiling has led to promising data in cancer, to date, none of the identified signatures or molecular markers in locally advanced rectal cancer has been successfully validated as a diagnostic or prognostic tool applicable to routine clinical practice.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Valeur prédictive de la surexpression/ amplification de Her2/neu pour un traitement ciblé du cancer du sein [Predictive value of Her2/neu expression/amplification for the targeted treatment of breast cancer]

Her2/neu is a tyrosine kinase receptor which stimulates cell growth. The receptor is overexpressed in about 20% of breast cancers. Her2/neu expression is an indicator of poor prognosis but also the target of the treatment of breast cancer using humanised anti-Her2/ neu antibodies. Only cancers overexpressing the protein will respond to this therapy, but which has significant (cardiac) side effects and is expensive. It is therefore important to test for the overexpression of the protein on breast cancer cells. This paper discusses how this can be done and ongoing research into new therapeutic options targeting the involved signaling pathways.

Testing the predictive adaptive response in a host-parasite system

1. Harsh environmental conditions experienced during development can reduce the performance of the same individuals in adulthood. However, the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis postulates that if individuals adapt their phenotype during development to the environments where they are likely to live in the future, individuals exposed to harsh conditions in early life perform better when encountering the same harsh conditions in adulthood compared to those never exposed to these conditions before. 2. Using the common vole (Microtus arvalis) as study organism, we tested how exposure to flea parasitism during the juvenile stage affects the physiology (haematocrit, resistance to oxidative stress, resting metabolism, spleen mass, and testosterone), morphology (body mass, testis mass) and motor performance (open field activity and swimming speed) of the same individuals when infested with fleas in adulthood. According to the 'predictive adaptive response' hypothesis, we predicted that voles parasitized at the adult stage would perform better if they had already been parasitized with fleas at the juvenile stage. 3. We found that voles exposed to fleas in adulthood had a higher metabolic rate if already exposed to fleas when juvenile, compared to voles free of fleas when juvenile and voles free of fleas in adulthood. Independently of juvenile parasitism, adult parasitism impaired adult haematocrit and motor performances. Independently of adult parasitism, juvenile parasitism slowed down crawling speed in adult female voles. 4. Our results suggest that juvenile parasitism has long-term effects that do not protect from the detrimental effects of adult parasitism. On the contrary, experiencing parasitism in early-life incurs additional costs upon adult parasitism measured in terms of higher energy expenditure, rather than inducing an adaptive shift in the developmental trajectory. 5. Hence, our study provides experimental evidence for long term costs of parasitism. We found no support for a predictive adaptive response in this host-parasite system.

Predictive factors of adrenal insufficiency in patients admitted to acute medical wards: a case control study.

BACKGROUND: Adrenal insufficiency is a rare and potentially lethal disease if untreated. Several clinical signs and biological markers are associated with glucocorticoid failure but the importance of these factors for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency is not known. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of and the factors associated with adrenal insufficiency among patients admitted to an acute internal medicine ward. METHODS: Retrospective, case-control study including all patients with high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation tests for suspected adrenal insufficiency performed between 2008 and 2010 in an acute internal medicine ward (n = 281). Cortisol values <550 nmol/l upon ACTH-stimulation test were considered diagnostic for adrenal insufficiency. Area under the ROC curve (AROC), sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values for adrenal insufficiency were assessed for thirteen symptoms, signs and biological variables. RESULTS: 32 patients (11.4%) presented adrenal insufficiency; the others served as controls. Among all clinical and biological parameters studied, history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the only independent factor significantly associated with patients with adrenal insufficiency (Odds Ratio: 6.71, 95% CI: 3.08 -14.62). Using a logistic regression, a model with four significant and independent variable was obtained, regrouping history of glucocorticoid withdrawal (OR 7.38, 95% CI [3.18 ; 17.11], p-value <0.001), nausea (OR 3.37, 95% CI [1.03 ; 11.00], p-value 0.044), eosinophilia (OR 17.6, 95% CI [1.02; 302.3], p-value 0.048) and hyperkalemia (OR 2.41, 95% CI [0.87; 6.69], p-value 0.092). The AROC (95% CI) was 0.75 (0.70; 0.80) for this model, with 6.3 (0.8 - 20.8) for sensitivity and 99.2 (97.1 - 99.9) for specificity. CONCLUSIONS: 11.4% of patients with suspected adrenal insufficient admitted to acute medical ward actually do present with adrenal insufficiency, defined by an abnormal response to high-dose (250 μg) ACTH-stimulation test. A history of glucocorticoid withdrawal was the strongest factor predicting the potential adrenal failure. The combination of a history of glucocorticoid withdrawal, nausea, eosinophilia and hyperkaliemia might be of interest to suspect adrenal insufficiency.