Systemic crisis in Alexander Lukashenko's regime. OSW Commentary No. 66, 2011-10-28

Measures undertaken by the Belarusian government in the areas of the economy, internal affairs and foreign policy in recent months have proven increasingly ineffective. Despite the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, Minsk is not implementing the reforms necessary to combat the crisis and its activity is limited only to feigned actions and administrative regulations. As a result, the economic situation is worsening but the chances of obtaining external loans as support, for example from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are decreasing. At the same time there is mounting fear among the regime of social unrest, therefore by raising salaries of the least well-off groups of citizens it is trying to compensate for the increased costs of living. On the other hand, the government is extending the scope of control over society and competences of enforcement bodies. Belarus’s room for manoeuvre in foreign policy has also been diminishing substantially. Despite the EU’s declared willingness to reach an agreement and its encouragement, Lukashenko is not ready to make concessions in the political sphere (e.g. to rehabilitate political prisoners), and this is hindering the normalisation of relations with the West. Minsk furthermore feels a mounting pressure from Moscow, making the Belarusian negotiating position ever weaker. The lack of freedom of manoeuvre in foreign policy, no possibility to maintain a costly economic model and the lack of support from the majority of society all prove that Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is in severe crisis. The system he established is no longer able to respond to current threats with adequate and effective strategies. This situation is challenging the regime’s stability and calls into question its viability in the longer term.

Changes in the political elite, economy and society of Belarus: Appearances and reality. OSW Study 30/2008

In late 2006 and early 2007, relations between Russia and Belarus were hit by the most serious crisis in many years. In a setting of heightened tension, the Belarusian authorities decided to gradually modify their economic policy and thoroughly restructure the ruling class. The new situation created new, much more difficult challenges for the Belarusian opposition. The processes initiated by the authorities were not intended to bring about either the democratisation of public and political life or full economic liberalisation; their only purpose was to enable the regime to tackle new challenges and survive in the changing international context. Nevertheless, modernisation has been initiated in Belarus' authoritarian system of power, which until now was considered to be completely incapable of reform. This puts the country's main political and economic partners, including the European Union, in a new situation.

Interconnector Investment for a Well-Functioning Internal Market: What EU regime of regulatory incentives? Bruges European Economic Research (BEER) Papers 18/October 2010

Sufficient cross‐border electricity transmission infrastructure is a pre‐requisite for a functioning European internal market for electricity. Also, the achievement of the EU’s energy policy objectives – sustainability, competitiveness and security of supply – critically depends on adequate investment in physical interconnections between the member states. Mainly focusing on the “regulatory path”, this paper assesses different ways to achieve a sufficient level of interconnector investment. In a first step, economic analysis identifies numerous impediments to interconnector investment adding up to an “interconnector investment failure”. Reflecting on the proper regulatory design of an EU framework able to overcome the interconnector investment failure, a number of recommendations are put forward:  All congestion rents should be channeled into interconnector building. Unused rents should be transferred to a European interconnector fund supervised by an EU agency.  Even though inherently sub‐optimal, merchant transmission investment can be used as a means to put pressure on regulated transmission system operators (TSO) that do not deliver. An EU agency should have exclusive competence on merchant interconnector exemptions.  A European TSO organization should be entrusted with supra‐national network planning, supervised by an EU agency.  The agency should decide on investment cost reallocation for interconnector projects that yield strong externalities. Payments could be settled via a European interconnector fund.  In case of non‐compliance with the supra‐national network plan, the EU agency should have the right to organize a tender – financed by the European interconnector fund – in order to get the “missing link” built. Assessing the existing EU regulatory framework, the efforts of the 2009 “third energy package” to fill the “regulatory gap” with new EU bodies – ACER and ENTSO‐E – are acknowledged. However, striking holes in regulatory framework are spotted, notably with regard to the use of congestion rents, interconnector cost allocation, and the distribution of decision making powers on new infrastructure exemptions A discussion of the TEN‐E interconnector funding scheme shows that massive funding can be an interim solution to the problem of insufficient interconnection capacities while overcoming the political deadlock on sensible regulatory topics such as interconnector cost allocation. The paper ends with policy recommendations.

Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 4/May 2011

Hosni Mubarak’s regime and its power system enjoyed remarkable stability for over 30 years. On 11 February 2011, after 18 days of mass protests, the Egyptian president was forced to step down, revealing the unsustainability of the political and economic system that had ensured his continuity for so long. While the revolution of January 25th led to a major success – the fall of Hosni Mubarak – Egypt’s political future is still opaque and exposed to a number of risks. This paper first highlights the factors underpinning the former stability of Mubarak’s regime; it then assesses the causes of its underlying unsustainability, leading to the anti-government popular mobilisation in January-February 2011 and the removal of Mubarak; finally the paper evaluates the prospects for a genuine democratic transition in Egypt, by looking at the main political and socio-economic challenges facing the country.

Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 3/May 2011

For 23 years, a combination of harsh repression and impressive socio-economic development in Tunisia ensured a certain level of stability of Ben Ali’s regime. However, on 14 January 2011, after several weeks of anti-government protests, the President fled the country, revealing the fallacy of the ‘Tunisian model’. While the departure of Ben Ali is an important step towards Tunisia’s political change, the fate of its democratic transition remains uncertain. In light of these changes and challenges, this paper first assesses the factors underpinning the former stability of Ben Ali’s regime; it then investigates the causes of its underlying unsustainability, culminating in the anti-government popular uprising in December 2010-January 2011 and the removal of Ben Ali; finally the paper evaluates the prospects for a real democratic transition in Tunisia, by highlighting the main political and socio-economic challenges that confront the country

Citizenship in the discourse of Egyptian political parties. EUSpring Working Paper No. 6, June 2015 [also Citizenship Report no. 3]

The concept of citizenship is one of the most complicated in political and social sciences. Its long process of historical development makes dealing with it particularly complicated. Citizenship is by nature a multi-dimensional concept: there is a legal citizenship, referring first to the equal legal status of individuals, for instance the equality between men and women. Legal citizenship also refers to a political dimension, the right to start and/or join political parties, or political participation more broadly. Thirdly, it has a religious dimension relating to the right of all religious groups to equally and freely practice their religious customs and rituals. Finally, legal citizenship possesses a socio-economic dimension related to the non-marginalisation of different social categories, for instance women. All of these dimensions, far from being purely objects of legal texts and codifications, are emerging as an arena of political struggle within the Egyptian society. Citizenship as a concept has its roots in European history and, more specifically, the emergence of the nation state in Europe and the ensuing economic and social developments in these societies. These social developments and the rise of the nation state have worked in parallel, fostering the notion of an individual citizen bestowed with rights and obligations. This gradual interaction was very different from what happened in the context of the Arab world. The emerging of the nation state in Egypt was an outcome of modernisation efforts from the top-down; it coercively redesigned the social structure, by eliminating or weakening some social classes in favour of others. These efforts have had an impact on the state-society relation at least in two respects. First, on the overlapping relation between some social classes and the state, and second, on the ability of some social groups to self-organise, define and raise their demands. This study identifies how different political parties in Egypt envision the multi-dimensional concept of citizenship. We focus on the following elements: Nature of the state (identity, nature of the regime) Liberties and rights (election laws, political party laws, etc.) Right to gather and organise (syndicates, associations, etc.) Freedom of expression and speech (right to protest, sit in, strike, etc.) Public and individual liberties (freedom of belief, personal issues, etc.) Rights of marginalised groups (women, minorities, etc.)

Women's political participation in Tunisia. Arab Citizenship Review No. 14, 21 January 2016

The collapse of the authoritarian regime in Tunisia in 2011 has given women new opportunities to participate in political life and in civil society activities, standing for elections (2011 and 2014) or becoming members of political parties and associations. Nevertheless, despite these advances and the already positive point of de- parture thanks to the legacy of Bourguiba, the “liberator of the country and the women”, participation of women remains unsatisfactory. While Tunisian women have enjoyed extended individual rights, especially compared to Arab women in general, since the country became independent in 1956, their political participation has remained controlled by the state.T he challenge of increasing the political participation of women, even in a democratic phase of the country’s political life, remains.The new electoral laws from 2011 and 2014 endorse parity and women rights, now guaranteed by the Constitution. However, the implementation of these rights is still at stake.

On the Road to Democracy? Political Liberalization in Myanmar. Asia Policy Brief 2014/01, January 2014

Myanmar’s liberalizing reforms initiated by President Thein Sein after taking office in March 2011 are raising high hopes of peace and democracy in the country. Progress, after nearly three years, has however been uneven: there have been positive developments in the area of press freedom, with regard to political prisoners and in dealing with the political opposition. At the same time the dialogue with ethnic groups has stagnated and ethnic and religious violence has escalated. This Asia Policy Brief critically assesses the reform policy and weighs up the chances of democratization of the long-time military regime.

Ethnic Politics, Regime Support and Conflict in Central and Eastern Europe

Ethnicity and ethnic parties have often been portrayed as a threat to political stability. There is also no shortage of conflicts with an ethnic flavor. Yet, this book challenges the notion that the organization of politics in heterogeneous societies should necessarily overcome ethnicity. Rather, descriptive representation of ethnic groups arguably has potential to increase regime support and reduce conflict. The book studies partisan-descriptive representation of up to 130 ethnic groups in central and eastern European democracies. Ethnic minority parties are found to only run and succeed if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. Conditional on gender and strategies of representation, ethnic representation increases satisfaction with democracy among the minority population. While protest rises given moderate levels of representation, it is reduced once ethnic groups have access to executives. In conclusion, a proportional vision of power-sharing between ethnic groups receives some qualified empirical support.

CIDADE DA CRIANÇA: UM ESTUDO DE GESTÃO SOB O REGIME DE PERMISSÃO NO CENÁRIO DA CULTURA E DO LAZER NO BRASIL

As transformações e modificações ocorridas no mercado, nas políticas e na economia do Brasil possuem um histórico e um trajeto muitas vezes desconhecidos e pouco divulgados pelos meios responsáveis a este fim. A parceria em gestão entre o público e o privado tem estado cada vez mais presente nas sociedades onde o Estado tem adotado políticas de intervenção moderada. As políticas econômicas liberais, o insistente incentivo ao empreendedorismo e à livre iniciativa, os processos de desburocratização, as parcerias e acordos políticos levados à prática, constituem e formam as principais bases de sustentação do cenário econômico contemporâneo. Aliado a isto, a economia sob a égide estratégica da expansão contínua de riquezas tem produzido no Brasil a sondagem e aproveitamento de nichos de mercado, outrora despercebidos. Em decorrência destes fatos, observa-se nas últimas décadas um crescimento progressivo factual no setor de lazer e entretenimento, a partir do planejamento e criação de dezenas de organizações e empresas objetivando a exploração destas atividades. A contextualização do tema gestão em parceria se dará a partir do estudo e análise de uma experiência prática de gerenciamento em modelo de Permissão implementada no parque Cidade da Criança em São Bernardo do Campo, região do Grande ABC Paulista. Neste meio tempo, surge a chance de identificar padrões de ações gerenciais e formas de planejamento organizacional que sinalizem aspectos, características e capacidades que fundamentem a viabilidade funcional ou não desta parceria em cenário prático e real.

ERNESTO GEISEL E A IMPRENSA DO BRASIL: A propaganda ideológica sobre o quarto Presidente do Regime Militar brasileiro (1964-1985), entre sua eleição e posse

No início da década de 1970 o Brasil viveu um período de grande crescimento econômico e de ampla divulgação das ações governamentais através dos meios de comunicação para tentar legitimar o Regime Militar. O País era governado pelo general-presidente Emílio Garrastazu Médici (1969-1974), cuja gestão ficara conhecida como os anos de chumbo . Em meados de 1973 ele decide que seu sucessor no comando da República seria o general Ernesto Geisel. O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar a campanha de propaganda ideológica feita pelas revistas Manchete e Veja e pelos jornais O Estado de S. Paulo e Folha de S. Paulo para apresentar aos seus leitores o novo Presidente. O trabalho deu-se inicialmente por meio de pesquisas bibliográficas para compreensão daquele período histórico e de analises documentais. Posteriormente realizou-se o estudo das edições selecionadas dos periódicos acima citados para buscar neles evidências dos componentes da propaganda ideológica realizada e para descobrir se eles atuaram ou não como difusores dos interesses oficiais.

TÁTICAS DE PROFESSORES: UMA REFLEXÃO SOBRE O CENÁRIO AVALIATIVO NO REGIME DE PROGRESSÃO CONTINUADA.

Este estudo qualitativo foi elaborado por meio de pesquisa bibliográfica de estudiosos do tema da avaliação do rendimento de alunos, como Luckesi (2005), Hoffmann (2003), Paro (2003), Hadji (1994) e Figari (1996), e de pesquisa de campo, com o objetivo de investigar como está ocorrendo a avaliação do ensino fundamental da rede pública paulista, na vigência do regime de progressão continuada. Considerando que os fundamentos da prática avaliativa distam quase sempre dos apregoados pela política educacional instituída e com o propósito de verificar se isto está ocorrendo com a política de progressão continuada, participei, durante um ano letivo, das atividades educacionais de uma escola pública da periferia da Grande São Paulo, observando, colhendo depoimentos e anotando cuidadosamente tudo o que vivenciei nesse período. Para empreender uma leitura dos dados coletados, busquei também o apoio no construto teórico de Michel de Certeau, para quem aos "produtos impostos" códigos, leis, políticas culturais, etc. rigorosamente organizados de forma a atribuir um lugar, um papel ao homem ordinário, contrapõem-se práticas construídas no processo de apropriação desses produtos. Por meio de suas "artes de fazer", os usuários reinventam o cotidiano. Utilizando-se de "táticas astuciosas", o usuário da cultura reapropria-se dos espaços, altera-lhes os códigos e deles faz uso "a seu jeito". Nesta pesquisa, que enfoca as relações dos protagonistas de processos avaliativos escolares, confirmam-se os postulados de Certeau, que não conferem ao consumidor da política um lugar passivo. Como já foi caracterizado por este instigante pensador, o usuário da política (o instituinte), enquanto portador de astúcias, move-se no campo espacial do outro (o instituído) e, taticamente, fazendo uso de práticas não previstas, escreve uma "outra história". O principal objetivo deste trabalho foi contribuir com reflexões que mostrem a importância de se analisar as tensões geradas por políticas educacionais impostas, desprovidas de sentido para aqueles que não participam de sua elaboração, o que tem provocado movimentos táticos de seus usuários, neste caso, os docentes, os quais, sem as condições objetivas necessárias para promover a política instituída, enunciada no discurso, utilizam-se do seu potencial instituinte de transformação, escrevendo uma "outra história".

Protocol, image, and discourse in political leadership competition:the case of Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, 1997-2002

This article examines the relationship between Prime Minister Jospin and President Chirac in the period 1997 to 2002. It is concerned in particular with symbolism, discourse and protocol, and how these have mediated the political competition between Chirac and Jospin. We develop a framework of analysis with several main strands. We consider the effects of the institutions of the Fifth Republic upon the political conduct of Prime Minister and President. We observe the perceived character traits of the individuals concerned, as well as the character traits expected of the offices of President and Prime Minister. We investigate the influence of the past upon the behaviour of Chirac and Jospin in the present, both in terms of notions of regime crisis which configured the institutions in the first place, and in relation to the image of previous holders of the offices (especially Charles de Gaulle and Franois Mitterrand).

Orthodoxy and the Cold War:religion and political power in Romania, 1947-65

This book examines the unique dynamics between Orthodoxy and politics in Romania. It provides an accessible narrative on church-state relations in the early Cold War period within a wider timeframe, from the establishment of the state in 1859 to the rise of Nicolae Ceausescu in 1965. In the 1950s Romania began to distance itself from Moscow's influence, developing its own form of communism. Based on new archival resources, the book argues that Romanian national communism, outside Moscow's influence, had an ally in a strong Church. It addresses the following questions: How did the Church, which openly opposed communism in the interwar period, survive the atheist regime? How did the regime use religion to its political advantage? What was the Church's influence on Romanian politics? The book analyses the political interests of the Romanian Orthodox Church and its religious diplomacy with actors in the West, in particular with the Church of England.