How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

Abstract As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5–10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10–1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO2 fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6–6.5 Mg C ha−1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha−1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach). Keywords Soil monitoring networks - Soil organic carbon - Modeling - Sampling design

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Assessing the resilience of potable water supplies in Southeast Queensland Australia

Historically, cities as urban forms have been critical to human development. In 1950, 30% of the world’s population lived in major cities. By the year 2000 this had increased to 47% with further expected growth to 50% by the end of 2007. Projections suggest that city-based densities will edge towards 60% of the global total by 2030. Such rapidly increasing urbanisation, in both developed and developing economies, challenges options for governance and planning, as well as crisis and disaster management. A common issue to the livability of cities as urban forms through time has been access to clean and reliable water supply. This is an issue that is particularly important in countries with arid ecosystems, such as Australia. This paper examines preliminary aspects, and theoretical basis, of a study into the resilience of the (potable) water supply system in Southeast Queensland (SEQ), an area with one of the most significant urban growth rates in Australia. The first stage will be to assess needs and requirements for gauging resilience characteristics of a generic water supply system, consisting of supply catchment, storage reservoir/s and treatment plant/s. The second stage will extend the analysis to examine the resilience of the SEQ water supply system incorporating specific characteristics of the SEQ water grid made increasingly vulnerable due to climate variability and projected impacts on rainfall characteristics and compounded by increasing demands due to population growth. Longer-term findings will inform decision making based on the application of the concept of resilience to designing and operating stand-alone and networked water supply infrastructure systems as well as its application to water resource systems more generally.

Massively parallel sequencing and analysis of expressed sequence tags in a successful invasive plant

Background Invasive species pose a significant threat to global economies, agriculture and biodiversity. Despite progress towards understanding the ecological factors associated with plant invasions, limited genomic resources have made it difficult to elucidate the evolutionary and genetic factors responsible for invasiveness. This study presents the first expressed sequence tag (EST) collection for Senecio madagascariensis, a globally invasive plant species. Methods We used pyrosequencing of one normalized and two subtractive libraries, derived from one native and one invasive population, to generate an EST collection. ESTs were assembled into contigs, annotated by BLAST comparison with the NCBI non-redundant protein database and assigned gene ontology (GO) terms from the Plant GO Slim ontologies. Key Results Assembly of the 221 746 sequence reads resulted in 12 442 contigs. Over 50 % (6183) of 12 442 contigs showed significant homology to proteins in the NCBI database, representing approx. 4800 independent transcripts. The molecular transducer GO term was significantly over-represented in the native (South African) subtractive library compared with the invasive (Australian) library. Based on NCBI BLAST hits and literature searches, 40 % of the molecular transducer genes identified in the South African subtractive library are likely to be involved in response to biotic stimuli, such as fungal, bacterial and viral pathogens. Conclusions This EST collection is the first representation of the S. madagascariensis transcriptome and provides an important resource for the discovery of candidate genes associated with plant invasiveness. The over-representation of molecular transducer genes associated with defence responses in the native subtractive library provides preliminary support for aspects of the enemy release and evolution of increased competitive ability hypotheses in this successful invasive. This study highlights the contribution of next-generation sequencing to better understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying ecological hypotheses that are important in successful plant invasions.

Demonstration of cellulosic ethanol production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : the Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant

The ready availability of sugarcane bagasse at an existing industrial facility and the potential availability of extra fibre through trash collection make sugarcane fibre the best candidate for early stage commercialisation of cellulosic ethanol technologies. The commercialisation of cellulosic ethanol technologies in the sugar industry requires both development of novel technologies and the assessment of these technologies at a pre-commercial scale. In 2007, the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) received funding from the Australian and Queensland Governments to construct a pilot research and development facility for the production of bioethanol and other renewable biocommodities from biomass including sugarcane bagasse. This facility has been built on the site of the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and is known as the Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant (MRBPP). This research facility is capable of processing cellulosic biomass by a variety of pretreatment technologies and includes equipment for enzymatic saccharification, fermentation and distillation to produce ethanol. Lignin and fermentation co-products can also be produced in the pilot facility.