Monetary policy rules and estimated reaction functions for the European Central Bank

This thesis studies the interest-rate policy of the ECB by estimating monetary policy rules using real-time data and central bank forecasts. The aim of the estimations is to try to characterize a decade of common monetary policy and to look at how different models perform at this task.The estimated rules include: contemporary Taylor rules, forward-looking Taylor rules, nonlinearrules and forecast-based rules. The nonlinear models allow for the possibility of zone-like preferences and an asymmetric response to key variables. The models therefore encompass the most popular sub-group of simple models used for policy analysis as well as the more unusual non-linear approach. In addition to the empirical work, this thesis also contains a more general discussion of monetary policy rules mostly from a New Keynesian perspective. This discussion includes an overview of some notable related studies, optimal policy, policy gradualism and several other related subjects. The regression estimations are performed with either least squares or the generalized method of moments depending on the requirements of the estimations. The estimations use data from both the Euro Area Real-Time Database and the central bank forecasts published in ECB Monthly Bulletins. These data sources represent some of the best data that is available for this kind of analysis. The main results of this thesis are that forward-looking behavior appears highly prevalent, but that standard forward-looking Taylor rules offer only ambivalent results with regard to inflation. Nonlinear models are shown to work, but on the other hand do not have a strong rationale over a simpler linear formulation. However, the forecasts appear to be highly useful in characterizing policy and may offer the most accurate depiction of a predominantly forward-looking central bank. In particular the inflation response appears much stronger while the output response becomes highly forward-looking as well.

Phonological Mean Length of Utterance as an indicator of typical and impaired phonological development in children acquiring Finnish

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of the Phonological Mean Length of Utterance (pMLU) method to the data of children acquiring Finnish, for both typically developing children and children with a Specific Language Impairment (SLI). Study I examined typically developing children at the end of the one-word stage (N=17, mean age 1;8), and Study II analysed children s (N=5) productions in a follow-up study with four assessment points (ages 2;0, 2;6, 3;0, 3;6). Study III was carried out in the form of a review article that examined recent research on the phonological development of children acquiring Finnish and compared the results with general trends and cross-linguistic findings in phonological development. Study IV included children with SLI (N=4, mean age 4;10) and age-matched peers. The analyses in Studies I, II and IV were made using the quantitative pMLU method. In the pMLU method, pMLU values are counted for both the words that the children targeted (so-called target words) and the words produced by the children. When the child s average pMLU value was divided with the average target word pMLU value, it is possible to examine that child s accuracy in producing the words with the Whole-Word Proximity (PWP) value. In addition, the number of entirely correctly produced words is counted to obtain the Whole-Word Correctness (PWC) value. Qualitative analyses were carried out in order to examine how the children s phoneme inventories and deficiencies in phonotactics would explain the observed pMLU, PWP and PWC values. The results showed that the pMLU values for children acquiring Finnish were relatively high already at the end of the one-word stage (Study I). The values were found to reflect the characteristics of the ambient language. Typological features that lead to cross-linguistic differences in pMLU values were also observed in the review article (Study III), which noted that in the course of phonological acquisition there are a large number of language-specific phenomena and processes. Study II indicated that overall the children s phonological development during the follow-up period was reflected in the pMLU, PWP and PWC values, although the method showed limitations in detecting qualitative differences between the children. Correct vowels were not scored in the pMLU counts, which led to some misleadingly high pMLU and PWP results: vowel errors were only reflected in the PWC values. Typically developing children in Study II reached the highest possible pMLU results already around age 3;6. At the same time, the differences between the children with SLI and age-matched peers in the pMLU values were very prominent (Study IV). The values for the children with SLI were similar to the ones reported for two-year-old children. Qualitative analyses revealed that the phonologies of the children with SLI largely resembled the ones of younger, typically developing children. However, unusual errors were also witnessed (e.g., vowel errors, omissions of word-initial stops, consonants added to the initial position in words beginning with a vowel). This dissertation provides an application of a new tool for quantitative phonological assessment and analysis in children acquiring Finnish. The preliminary results suggest that, with some modifications, the pMLU method can be used to assess children s phonological development and that it has some advantages compared to the earlier, segment-oriented approaches. Qualitative analyses complemented the pMLU s observations on the children s phonologies. More research is needed in order to verify the levels of the pMLU, PWP and PWC values in children acquiring Finnish.

Ising pyrochlore magnets: Low-temperature properties, "ice rules," and beyond

Pyrochlore magnets are candidates for what Harris et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 2554 (1997)] call "spin-ice" behavior. We present theoretical simulations of relevance for the pyrochlore family R2Ti2O7 (R = rare earth) supported by magnetothermal measurements on selected systems. Ey considering long-ranged dipole-dipole as well as short-ranged superexchange interactions, we get three distinct behaviors: (i) an ordered doubly degenerate state, (ii) a highly disordered state with a broad transition to paramagnetism, and (iii) a partially ordered state with a sharp transition to paramagnetism. Closely corresponding behavior is seen in the real compounds.

Shear sum rules at finite chemical potential

We derive sum rules which constrain the spectral density corresponding to the retarded propagator of the T-xy component of the stress tensor for three gravitational duals. The shear sum rule is obtained for the gravitational dual of the N = 4 Yang-Mills, theory of the M2-branes and M5-branes all at finite chemical potential. We show that at finite chemical potential there are additional terms in the sum rule which involve the chemical potential. These modifications are shown to be due to the presence of scalars in the operator product expansion of the stress tensor which have non-trivial vacuum expectation values at finite chemical potential.

Reducing convergence times of self-propelled swarms via modified nearest neighbor rules

Vicsek et al. proposed a biologically inspired model of self-propelled particles, which is now commonly referred to as the Vicsek model. Recently, attention has been directed at modifying the Vicsek model so as to improve convergence properties. In this paper, we propose two modification of the Vicsek model which leads to significant improvements in convergence times. The modifications involve an additional term in the heading update rule which depends only on the current or the past states of the particle's neighbors. The variation in convergence properties as the parameters of these modified versions are changed are closely investigated. It is found that in both cases, there exists an optimal value of the parameter which reduces convergence times significantly and the system undergoes a phase transition as the value of the parameter is increased beyond this optimal value. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sum rules and three point functions

Sum rules constraining the R-current spectral densities are derived holographically for the case of D3-branes, M2-branes and M5-branes all at finite chemical potentials. In each of the cases the sum rule relates a certain integral of the spectral density over the frequency to terms which depend both on long distance physics, hydrodynamics and short distance physics of the theory. The terms which which depend on the short distance physics result from the presence of certain chiral primaries in the OPE of two it-currents which are turned on at finite chemical potential. Since these sum rules contain information of the OPE they provide an alternate method to obtain the structure constants of the two R-currents and the chiral primary. As a consistency check we show that the 3 point function derived from the sum rule precisely matches with that obtained using Witten diagrams.

Spectral moment sum rules for the retarded Green's function and self-energy of the inhomogeneous Bose-Hubbard model in equilibrium and nonequilibrium

We derive exact expressions for the zeroth and the first three spectral moment sum rules for the retarded Green's function and for the zeroth and the first spectral moment sum rules for the retarded self-energy of the inhomogeneous Bose-Hubbard model in nonequilibrium, when the local on-site repulsion and the chemical potential are time-dependent, and in the presence of an external time-dependent electromagnetic field. We also evaluate these expressions for the homogeneous case in equilibrium, where all time dependence and external fields vanish. Unlike similar sum rules for the Fermi-Hubbard model, in the Bose-Hubbard model case, the sum rules often depend on expectation values that cannot be determined simply from parameters in the Hamiltonian like the interaction strength and chemical potential but require knowledge of equal-time many-body expectation values from some other source. We show how one can approximately evaluate these expectation values for the Mott-insulating phase in a systematic strong-coupling expansion in powers of the hopping divided by the interaction. We compare the exact moment relations to the calculated moments of spectral functions determined from a variety of different numerical approximations and use them to benchmark their accuracy. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevA.87.013628

Novel Relay Selection Rules for Average Interference-Constrained Cognitive AF Relay Networks

Cooperative relaying combined with selection exploits spatial diversity to significantly improve the performance of interference-constrained secondary users in an underlay cognitive radio (CR) network. However, unlike conventional relaying, the state of the links between the relay and the primary receiver affects the choice of the relay. Further, while the optimal amplify-and-forward (AF) relay selection rule for underlay CR is well understood for the peak interference-constraint, this is not so for the less conservative average interference constraint. For the latter, we present three novel AF relay selection (RS) rules, namely, symbol error probability (SEP)-optimal, inverse-of-affine (IOA), and linear rules. We analyze the SEPs of the IOA and linear rules and also develop a novel, accurate approximation technique for analyzing the performance of AF relays. Extensive numerical results show that all the three rules outperform several RS rules proposed in the literature and generalize the conventional AF RS rule.

Renormalization group invariants and sum rules in the deflected mirage mediation supersymmetry breaking

We examine the deflected mirage mediation supersymmetry breaking (DMMSB) scenario, which combines three supersymmetry breaking scenarios, namely anomaly mediation, gravity mediation and gauge mediation using the one-loop renormalization group invariants (RGIs). We examine the effects on the RGIs at the threshold where the gauge messengers emerge, and derive the supersymmetry breaking parameters in terms of the RGIs. We further discuss whether the supersymmetry breaking mediation mechanism can be determined using a limited set of invariants, and derive sum rules valid for DMMSB below the gauge messenger scale. In addition we examine the implications of the measured Higgs mass for the DMMSB spectrum.

The Importance of Stock Market Returns in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules: a Structural Approach

This paper estimates a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with financial variables in order to analyze the relative importance of stock market returns and term spread in the estimated U.S. monetary policy rule. The estimation procedure implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. The empirical results show that the Fed seems to respond to the macroeconomic outlook and to the stock market return but does not seem to respond to the term spread. Moreover, policy inertia and persistent policy shocks are also significant features of the estimated policy rule.

On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules

A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

Union Formation and Bargaining Rules in the Labor Market

This paper analyzes union formation in a model of bargaining between a firm and several unions. We address two questions: first, the optimal configuration of unions (their number and size) and, second, the impact of the bargaining pattern (simultaneous or sequential). For workers, grouping into several unions works as a price discrimination device which, at the same time, decreases their market power. The analysis shows that optimal union configuration depends on the rules that regulate the bargaining process (monopoly union, Nash bargaining or right to manage).