Results of an aqueous source term model for a radiological risk assessment of the Drigg LLW Site, U.K.

A radionuclide source term model has been developed which simulates the biogeochemical evolution of the Drigg low level waste (LLW) disposal site. The DRINK (DRIgg Near field Kinetic) model provides data regarding radionuclide concentrations in groundwater over a period of 100,000 years, which are used as input to assessment calculations for a groundwater pathway. The DRINK model also provides input to human intrusion and gaseous assessment calculations through simulation of the solid radionuclide inventory. These calculations are being used to support the Drigg post closure safety case. The DRINK model considers the coupled interaction of the effects of fluid flow, microbiology, corrosion, chemical reaction, sorption and radioactive decay. It represents the first direct use of a mechanistic reaction-transport model in risk assessment calculations.

Modeling the plant uptake of organic chemicals, including the soil-air-plant pathway

The soil−air−plant pathway is potentially important in the vegetative accumulation of organic pollutants from contaminated soils. While a number of qualitative frameworks exist for the prediction of plant accumulation of organic chemicals by this pathway, there are few quantitative models that incorporate this pathway. The aim of the present study was to produce a model that included this pathway and could quantify its contribution to the total plant contamination for a range of organic pollutants. A new model was developed from three submodels for the processes controlling plant contamination via this pathway: aerial deposition, soil volatilization, and systemic translocation. Using the combined model, the soil−air−plant pathway was predicted to account for a significant proportion of the total shoot contamination for those compounds with log KOA > 9 and log KAW < −3. For those pollutants with log KOA < 9 and log KAW > −3 there was a higher deposition of pollutant via the soil−air−plant pathway than for those chemicals with log KOA > 9 and log KAW < −3, but this was an insignificant proportion of the total shoot contamination because of the higher mobility of these compounds via the soil−root−shoot pathway. The incorporation of the soil−air−plant pathway into the plant uptake model did not significantly improve the prediction of the contamination of vegetation from polluted soils when compared across a range of studies. This was a result of the high variability between the experimental studies where the bioconcentration factors varied by 2 orders of magnitude at an equivalent log KOA. One potential reason for this is the background air concentration of the pollutants under study. It was found background air concentrations would dominate those from soil volatilization in many situations unless there was a soil hot spot of contamination, i.e., >100 mg kg−1.

Intracellular or intercellular localization of the polar pathway of penetration across stratum corneum

A pharmacokinetic hypothesis of stratum corneum with two parallel pathways, lipophilic and porous hydrophilic, is not well documented yet. Still questionable is the localization of the pores, and the present experiments were designed to elucidate the contribution of extracellular lipids and intracellular keratin to the structure of this pathway. Percutaneous penetration of baclofen, a model zwitterion, was studied in vitro using human cadaver skin. Aqueous or ethanolic saturated solutions of the drug (Cs = 4.6 and 0.4 mg/ mL, respectively) were applied on the skin that was pretreated with: methanol/chloroform (Me/Ch) or acetone-chloroform (Ac/Ch) (1:1) mixtures, or with these solvents followed by 0.2% solution of sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS). As controls, baclofen penetration through the intact full-thickness skin was determined, and the fluxes were 0.18 ±0.08 and 0.14 ±0.07 µg/cm2/h for aqueous and ethanolic solutions, respectively. When Me/Ch was used for 1 h, an expected increase of the penetration was observed, but the lag time, Tlag, was still nearly 20 h. When the less polar mixture, Ac/Ch, was used, no flux enhancement was observed, and with ethanol as the vehicle, decreased penetration was even noted. No effect on baclofen penetration was observed when SLS was used for 1 h after delipidization of the skin was done with either the Me/Ch or Ac/Ch mixture. The results suggest that the polar pathway may be located intercellularly and comprises aqueous regions surrounded by polar lipids, which create the walls of such microchannels.

Aerosol forcing in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate

The latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM2-ES, includes Earth system components such as interactive chemistry and eight species of tropospheric aerosols. It has been run for the period 1860–2100 in support of the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Anthropogenic aerosol emissions peak between 1980 and 2020, resulting in a present-day all-sky top of the atmosphere aerosol forcing of −1.6 and −1.4 W m−2 with and without ammonium nitrate aerosols, respectively, for the sum of direct and first indirect aerosol forcings. Aerosol forcing becomes significantly weaker in the 21st century, being weaker than −0.5 W m−2 in 2100 without nitrate. However, nitrate aerosols become the dominant species in Europe and Asia and decelerate the decrease in global mean aerosol forcing. Considering nitrate aerosols makes aerosol radiative forcing 2–4 times stronger by 2100 depending on the representative concentration pathway, although this impact is lessened when changes in the oxidation properties of the atmosphere are accounted for. Anthropogenic aerosol residence times increase in the future in spite of increased precipitation, as cloud cover and aerosol-cloud interactions decrease in tropical and midlatitude regions. Deposition of fossil fuel black carbon onto snow and ice surfaces peaks during the 20th century in the Arctic and Europe but keeps increasing in the Himalayas until the middle of the 21st century. Results presented here confirm the importance of aerosols in influencing the Earth's climate, albeit with a reduced impact in the future, and suggest that nitrate aerosols will partially replace sulphate aerosols to become an important anthropogenic species in the remainder of the 21st century.

Premature impairment of methylation pathway and cardiac metabolic dysfunction in fa/fa obese Zucker rats

Increasing evidence suggests that obesity is a chronic inflammatory disease, in which adipose tissue is involved in a network of endocrine signals to modulate energy homeostasis. These oxidative-inflammatory pathways, which are associated with cardiovascular complications, are also observed during the aging process. In this study, we investigated the interaction between aging and the development of obesity in a hyperphagic rat model. Metabolic profiles of the liver, white adipose tissue (WAT) and heart from young and adult Zucker lean (fa/+) and obese (fa/fa) rats were characterized using a (1)H NMR-based metabonomics approach. We observed premature metabolic modifications in all studied organs in obese animals, some of which were comparable to those observed in adult lean animals. In the cardiac tissue, young obese rats displayed lower lactate and scyllo-inositol levels associated with higher creatine, choline and phosphocholine levels, indicating an early modulation of energy and membrane metabolism. An early alteration of the hepatic methylation and transsulfuration pathways in both groups of obese rats indicated that these pathways were affected before diabetic onset. These findings therefore support the hypothesis that obesity parallels some metabolic perturbations observed in the aging process and provides new insights into the metabolic modifications occurring in pre-diabetic state.

Does the PMSP connectionist model of single word reading learn to read in the same way as a child?

The Plaut, McClelland, Seidenberg and Patterson (1996) connectionist model of reading was evaluated at two points early in its training against reading data collected from British children on two occasions during their first year of literacy instruction. First, the network’s non-word reading was poor relative to word reading when compared with the children. Second, the network made more non-lexical than lexical errors, the opposite pattern to the children. Three adaptations were made to the training of the network to bring it closer to the learning environment of a child: an incremental training regime was adopted; the network was trained on grapheme– phoneme correspondences; and a training corpus based on words found in children’s early reading materials was used. The modifications caused a sharp improvement in non-word reading, relative to word reading, resulting in a near perfect match to the children’s data on this measure. The modified network, however, continued to make predominantly non-lexical errors, although evidence from a small-scale implementation of the full triangle framework suggests that this limitation stems from the lack of a semantic pathway. Taken together, these results suggest that, when properly trained, connectionist models of word reading can offer insights into key aspects of reading development in children.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models

We utilize energy budget diagnostics from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate the models' climate forcing since preindustrial times employing an established regression technique. The climate forcing evaluated this way, termed the adjusted forcing (AF), includes a rapid adjustment term associated with cloud changes and other tropospheric and land-surface changes. We estimate a 2010 total anthropogenic and natural AF from CMIP5 models of 1.9 ± 0.9 W m−2 (5–95% range). The projected AF of the Representative Concentration Pathway simulations are lower than their expected radiative forcing (RF) in 2095 but agree well with efficacy weighted forcings from integrated assessment models. The smaller AF, compared to RF, is likely due to cloud adjustment. Multimodel time series of temperature change and AF from 1850 to 2100 have large intermodel spreads throughout the period. The intermodel spread of temperature change is principally driven by forcing differences in the present day and climate feedback differences in 2095, although forcing differences are still important for model spread at 2095. We find no significant relationship between the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of a model and its 2003 AF, in contrast to that found in older models where higher ECS models generally had less forcing. Given the large present-day model spread, there is no indication of any tendency by modelling groups to adjust their aerosol forcing in order to produce observed trends. Instead, some CMIP5 models have a relatively large positive forcing and overestimate the observed temperature change.

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

We use a stratosphere–troposphere composition–climate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H2SO4. In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations. We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.

Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5

The new Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) is used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in a series of climate change experiments for either idealized CO2-only forcing or forcings based on observations and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The paper gives an overview of the model configurations, experiments related forcings, and initialization procedures and presents results for the simulated changes in climate and carbon cycle. It is found that the climate feedback depends on the global warming and possibly the forcing history. The global warming from climatological 1850 conditions to 2080–2100 ranges from 1.5°C under the RCP2.6 scenario to 4.4°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Over this range, the patterns of temperature and precipitation change are nearly independent of the global warming. The model shows a tendency to reduce the ocean heat uptake efficiency toward a warmer climate, and hence acceleration in warming in the later years. The precipitation sensitivity can be as high as 2.5% K−1 if the CO2 concentration is constant, or as small as 1.6% K−1, if the CO2 concentration is increasing. The oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon increases over time in all scenarios, being smallest in the experiment forced by RCP2.6 and largest in that for RCP8.5. The land also serves as a net carbon sink in all scenarios, predominantly in boreal regions. The strong tropical carbon sources found in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 experiments are almost absent in the RCP4.5 experiment, which can be explained by reforestation in the RCP4.5 scenario.

Mathematical model for NF-kappaB-driven proliferation of adult neural stem cells

Neural stem cells (NSCs) are early precursors of neuronal and glial cells. NSCs are capable of generating identical progeny through virtually unlimited numbers of cell divisions (cell proliferation), producing daughter cells committed to differentiation. Nuclear factor kappa B (NF-kappaB) is an inducible, ubiquitous transcription factor also expressed in neurones, glia and neural stem cells. Recently, several pieces of evidence have been provided for a central role of NF-kappaB in NSC proliferation control. Here, we propose a novel mathematical model for NF-kappaB-driven proliferation of NSCs. We have been able to reconstruct the molecular pathway of activation and inactivation of NF-kappaB and its influence on cell proliferation by a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. Then we use a combination of analytical and numerical techniques to study the model dynamics. The results obtained are illustrated by computer simulations and are, in general, in accordance with biological findings reported by several independent laboratories. The model is able to both explain and predict experimental data. Understanding of proliferation mechanisms in NSCs may provide a novel outlook in both potential use in therapeutic approaches, and basic research as well.

Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims.

Rho Signaling Pathway and Apical Constriction in the Early Lens Placode

Epithelial invagination in many model systems is driven by apical cell constriction, mediated by actin and myosin II contraction regulated by GTPase activity. Here we investigate apical constriction during chick lens placode invagination. Inhibition of actin polymerization and myosin II activity by cytochalasin D or blebbistatin prevents lens invagination. To further verify if lens placode invaginate through apical constriction, we analyzed the role of Rho-ROCK pathway. Rho GTPases expression at the apical portion of the lens placode occurs with the same dynamics as that of the cytoskeleton. Overexpression of the pan-Rho inhibitor C3 exotoxin abolished invagination and had a strong effect on apical myosin II enrichment and a mild effect on apical actin localization. In contrast, pharmacological inhibition of ROCK activity interfered significantly with apical enrichment of both actin and myosin. These results suggest that apical constriction in lens invagination involves ROCK but apical concentration of actin and myosin are regulated through different pathways upstream of ROCK. genesis 49: 368-379, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

CD28 Exerts Protective and Detrimental Effects in a Pulmonary Model of Paracoccidioidomycosis

T-cell immunity has been claimed as the main immunoprotective mechanism against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis infection, the most important fungal infection in Latin America. As the initial events that control T-cell activation in paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) are not well established, we decided to investigate the role of CD28, an important costimulatory molecule for the activation of effector and regulatory T cells, in the immunity against this pulmonary pathogen. Using CD28-deficient (CD28(-/-)) and normal wild-type (WT) C57BL/6 mice, we were able to demonstrate that CD28 costimulation determines in pulmonary paracoccidioidomycosis an early immunoprotection but a late deleterious effect associated with impaired immunity and uncontrolled fungal growth. Up to week 10 postinfection, CD28(-/-) mice presented increased pulmonary and hepatic fungal loads allied with diminished production of antibodies and pro-and anti-inflammatory cytokines besides impaired activation and migration of effector and regulatory T (Treg) cells to the lungs. Unexpectedly, CD28-sufficient mice progressively lost the control of fungal growth, resulting in an increased mortality associated with persistent presence of Treg cells, deactivation of inflammatory macrophages and T cells, prevalent presence of anti-inflammatory cytokines, elevated fungal burdens, and extensive hepatic lesions. As a whole, our findings suggest that CD28 is required for the early protective T-cell responses to P. brasiliensis infection, but it also induces the expansion of regulatory circuits that lately impair adaptive immunity, allowing uncontrolled fungal growth and overwhelming infection, which leads to precocious mortality of mice.