Macroseismology as a Component of Seismicity Assessments in an Intraplate Region: Studies of Northern Europe with Emphasis on Finland

This work focuses on the role of macroseismology in the assessment of seismicity and probabilistic seismic hazard in Northern Europe. The main type of data under consideration is a set of macroseismic observations available for a given earthquake. The macroseismic questionnaires used to collect earthquake observations from local residents since the late 1800s constitute a special part of the seismological heritage in the region. Information of the earthquakes felt on the coasts of the Gulf of Bothnia between 31 March and 2 April 1883 and on 28 July 1888 was retrieved from the contemporary Finnish and Swedish newspapers, while the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT is an example of an early systematic macroseismic survey in the region. A data set of more than 1200 macroseismic questionnaires is available for the earthquake in Central Finland on 16 November 1931. Basic macroseismic investigations including preparation of new intensity data point (IDP) maps were conducted for these earthquakes. Previously disregarded usable observations were found in the press. The improved collection of IDPs of the 1888 earthquake shows that this event was a rare occurrence in the area. In contrast to earlier notions it was felt on both sides of the Gulf of Bothnia. The data on the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT were augmented with historical background information discovered in various archives and libraries. This earthquake was of some concern to the authorities, because extra fire inspections were conducted in three towns at least, i.e. Tornio, Haparanda and Piteå, located in the centre of the area of perceptibility. This event posed the indirect hazard of fire, although its magnitude around 4.6 was minor on the global scale. The distribution of slightly damaging intensities was larger than previously outlined. This may have resulted from the amplification of the ground shaking in the soft soil of the coast and river valleys where most of the population was found. The large data set of the 1931 earthquake provided an opportunity to apply statistical methods and assess methodologies that can be used when dealing with macroseismic intensity. It was evaluated using correspondence analysis. Different approaches such as gridding were tested to estimate the macroseismic field from the intensity values distributed irregularly in space. In general, the characteristics of intensity warrant careful consideration. A more pervasive perception of intensity as an ordinal quantity affected by uncertainties is advocated. A parametric earthquake catalogue comprising entries from both the macroseismic and instrumental era was used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The parametric-historic methodology was applied to estimate seismic hazard at a given site in Finland and to prepare a seismic hazard map for Northern Europe. The interpretation of these results is an important issue, because the recurrence times of damaging earthquakes may well exceed thousands of years in an intraplate setting such as Northern Europe. This application may therefore be seen as an example of short-term hazard assessment.

Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Studies on a stove for powdery biomass

The sawdust stove, classically known for several decades, is considered here in a scientific study. The poor ignition characteristics and smoky start up are related to improper geometric dimensions. Based on a parametric study, the startup procedure and the dimensions of the stove were modified to achieve a smooth start up. Also, the range of acceptable fuels was enlarged to include tiny unprocessed dry twigs, weeds and wood sticks o the extent of about 50%, with the rest being sawdust-like material. The efficiency of the stove was measured to be 30–40%, depending on the relative size and shape of the vessel and the power level of the stove. A simple procedure for designing this class of stove for various power levels, as well as burning times, is presented. A new concept of multiport design is also discussed.

Comparative statistical aging studies on an oil-pressboard insulation model

Accelerated aging experiments have been conducted on a representative oil-pressboard insulation model to investigate the effect of constant and sequential stresses on the PD behavior using a built-in phase resolved partial discharge analyzer. A cycle of the applied voltage starting from the zero of the positive half cycle was divided into 16 equal phase windows (Φ1 to Φ16) and partial discharge (PD) magnitude distribution in each phase was determined. Based on the experimental results, three stages of aging mechanism were identified. Gumbel's extreme value distribution of the largest element was used to model the first stage of aging process. Second and subsequent stages were modeled using two-parameter Weibull distribution. Spearman's non-parametric rank correlation test statistic and Kolmogrov-Smirnov two sample test were used to relate the aging process of each phase with the corresponding process of the full cycle. To bring out clearly the effect of stress level, its duration and test procedure on the distribution parameters and hence of the aging process, non-parametric ANOVA techniques like Kruskal-Wallis and Fisher's LSD multiple comparison tests were used. Results of the analysis show that two phases (Φ13 and Φ14) near the vicinity of the negative voltage peak were found to contribute significantly to the aging process and their aging mechanism also correlated well with that of the corresponding full cycle mechanism. Attempts have been made to relate these results with the published work of other workers

A review of recent developments in parametric based acoustic emission techniques applied to concrete structures

This article presents a review of recent developments in parametric based acoustic emission (AE) techniques applied to concrete structures. It recapitulates the significant milestones achieved by previous researchers including various methods and models developed in AE testing of concrete structures. The aim is to provide an overview of the specific features of parametric based AE techniques of concrete structures carried out over the years. Emphasis is given to traditional parameter-based AE techniques applied to concrete structures. A significant amount of research on AE techniques applied to concrete structures has already been published and considerable attention has been given to those publications. Some recent studies such as AE energy analysis and b-value analysis used to assess damage of concrete bridge beams have also been discussed. The formation of fracture process zone and the AE energy released during the fracture process in concrete beam specimens have been summarised. A large body of experimental data on AE characteristics of concrete has accumulated over the last three decades. This review of parametric based AE techniques applied to concrete structures may be helpful to the concerned researchers and engineers to better understand the failure mechanism of concrete and evolve more useful methods and approaches for diagnostic inspection of structural elements and failure prediction/prevention of concrete structures.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of the Tensioned Tether under Parametric Excitations

The nonlinear dynamic responses of the tensioned tether subjected to combined surge and heave motions of floating platform are investigated using 2-D nonlinear beam model. It is shown that if the transverse-axial coupling of nonlinear beam model and the combined surge-heave motions of platform are considered, the governing equation is not Mathieu equation any more, it becomes nonlinear Hill equation. The Hill stability chart is obtained by using the Hill's infinite determinant and harmonic balance method. A parameter M, which is the function of tether length, the surge and heave amplitude of platform, is defined. The Hill stability chart is obviously different from Mathieu stability chart which is the specific case as M=0. Some case studies are performed by employing linear and nonlinear beam model respectively. It can be found that the results differences between nonlinear and linear model are apparent.

Physical Modeling And Parametric Study On Two-Degree-Of-Freedom Viv Of A Cylinder Near Rigid Wall

Unlike most previous studies on the transverse vortex-induced vibration(VIV) of a cylinder mainly under the wallfree condition (Williamson & Govardhan,2004),this paper experimentally investigates the vortex-induced vibration of a cylinder with two degrees of freedom near a rigid wall exposed to steady flow.The amplitude and frequency responses of the cylinder are discussed.The lee wake flow patterns of the cylinder undergoing VIV were visualized by employing the hydrogen bubble technique.The effects of the gap-to-diameter ratio (e0/D) and the mass ratio on the vibration amplitude and frequency are analyzed.Comparisons of VIV response of the cylinder are made between one degree (only transverse) and two degrees of freedom (streamwise and transverse) and those between the present study and previous ones.The experimental observation indicates that there are two types of streamwise vibration,i.e.the first streamwise vibration (FSV) with small amplitude and the second streamwise vibration (SSV) which coexists with transverse vibration.The vortex shedding pattem for the FSV is approximately symmetric and that for the SSV is alternate.The first streamwise vibration tends to disappear with the decrease of e0/D.For the case of large gap-to-diameter ratios (e.g.e0/D = 0.54～1.58),the maximum amplitudes of the second streamwise vibration and transverse one increase with the increasing gapto-diameter ratio.But for the case of small gap-to-diameter ratios (e.g.e0/D = 0.16,0.23),the vibration amplitude of the cylinder increases slowly at the initial stage (i.e.at small reduced velocity V,),and across the maximum amplitude it decreases quickly at the last stage (i.e.at large Vr).Within the range ofthe examined small mass ratio (m＜4),both streamwise and transverse vibration amplitude of the cylinder decrease with the increase of mass ratio for the fixed value of V,.The vibration range (in terms of Vr ) tends to widen with the decrease of the mass ratio.In the second streamwise vibration region,the vibration frequency of the cylinder with a small mass ratio (e.g.mx = 1.44) undergoes a jump at a certain Vr,.The maximum amplitudes of the transverse vibration for two-degree-of-freedom case is larger than that for one-degree-of-freedom case,but the transverse vibration frequency of the cylinder with two degrees of freedom is lower than that with one degree of freedom (transverse).

Demographic studies of extrasolar planets

Uncovering the demographics of extrasolar planets is crucial to understanding the processes of their formation and evolution. In this thesis, we present four studies that contribute to this end, three of which relate to NASA's Kepler mission, which has revolutionized the field of exoplanets in the last few years.

In the pre-Kepler study, we investigate a sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements---measurements of the inclination of a planet's orbit relative to the spin axis of its host star---to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. Applying methods of Bayesian model comparison to distinguish between the predictions of several different migration models, we find that the data strongly favor a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, these methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism.

We then present two studies addressing astrophysical false positives in Kepler data. The Kepler mission has identified thousands of transiting planet candidates, and only relatively few have yet been dynamically confirmed as bona fide planets, with only a handful more even conceivably amenable to future dynamical confirmation. As a result, the ability to draw detailed conclusions about the diversity of exoplanet systems from Kepler detections relies critically on understanding the probability that any individual candidate might be a false positive. We show that a typical a priori false positive probability for a well-vetted Kepler candidate is only about 5-10%, enabling confidence in demographic studies that treat candidates as true planets. We also present a detailed procedure that can be used to securely and efficiently validate any individual transit candidate using detailed information of the signal's shape as well as follow-up observations, if available.

Finally, we calculate an empirical, non-parametric estimate of the shape of the radius distribution of small planets with periods less than 90 days orbiting cool (less than 4000K) dwarf stars in the Kepler catalog. This effort reveals several notable features of the distribution, in particular a maximum in the radius function around 1-1.25 Earth radii and a steep drop-off in the distribution larger than 2 Earth radii. Even more importantly, the methods presented in this work can be applied to a broader subsample of Kepler targets to understand how the radius function of planets changes across different types of host stars.

Parametric optimisation of manufacturing tolerances at the aircraft surface

Up until now, aircraft surface smoothness requirements have been aerodynamically driven with tighter manufacturing tolerance to minimize drag, that is, the tighter the tolerance, the higher is the assembly cost in the process of manufacture. In the current status of commercial transport aircraft operation, it can be seen that the unit cost contributes to the aircraft direct operating cost considerably more than the contribution made by the cost of block fuel consumed for the mission profile. The need for a customer-driven design strategy to reduce direct operating cost by reducing aircraft cost through manufacturing tolerance relaxation at the wetted surface without unduly penalizing parasite drag is investigated. To investigate this, a preliminary study has been conducted at 11 key manufacturing features on the surface assembly of an isolated nacelle. In spite of differences in parts design and manufacture, the investigated areas associated with the assembly of nacelles are typical of generic patterns in the assembly of other components of aircraft. The study is to be followed up by similar studies extended to lifting surfaces and fuselage

Parametric and non-parametric estimates of willingness to pay for forest recreation in Northern Ireland: A discrete choice contingent valuation study with follow-ups

In this study we show that forest areas contribute significantly to the estimated benefits from om outdoor recreation in Northern Ireland. Secondly we provide empirical evidence of the gains in the statistical efficiency of both benefit and parameter estimates obtained by analysing follow-up responses with Double Bounded interval data analysis. As these gains are considerable, it is clearly worth considering this method in CVM survey design even when moderately large sample sizes are used. Finally we demonstrate that estimates of means and medians of WTP distributions for access to forest recreation show plausible magnitude, are consistent with previous UK studies, and converge across parametric and non-parametic methods of estimation.

High pressure CO2 absorption studies on imidazolium-based ionic liquids:Experimental and simulation approaches

A combined experimental-computational study on the CO absorption on 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluophosphate, 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis[trifluoromethylsulfonyl]imide, and 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis[trifluoromethylsulfonyl]imide ionic liquids is reported. The reported results allowed to infer a detailed nanoscopic vision of the absorption phenomena as a function of pressure and temperature. Absorption isotherms were measured at 318 and 338K for pressures up to 20MPa for ultrapure samples using a state-of-the-art magnetic suspension densimeter, for which measurement procedures are developed. A remarkable swelling effect upon CO absorption was observed for pressures higher than 10MPa, which was corrected using a method based on experimental volumetric data. The experimental data reported in this work are in good agreement with available literature isotherms. Soave-Redlich-Kwong and Peng-Robinson equations of state coupled with bi-parametric van der Waals mixing rule were used for successful correlations of experimental high pressure absorption data. Molecular dynamics results allowed to infer structural, energetic and dynamic properties of the studied CO+ionic liquids mixed fluids, showing the relevant role of the strength of anion-cation interactions on fluid volumetric properties and CO absorption. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

Non-parametric bill of quantities estimation of concrete road bridges' superstructure: an artificial neural networks approach

Bridge construction responds to the need for environmentally friendly design of motorways and facilitates the passage through sensitive natural areas and the bypassing of urban areas. However, according to numerous research studies, bridge construction presents substantial budget overruns. Therefore, it is necessary early in the planning process for the decision makers to have reliable estimates of the final cost based on previously constructed projects. At the same time, the current European financial crisis reduces the available capital for investments and financial institutions are even less willing to finance transportation infrastructure. Consequently, it is even more necessary today to estimate the budget of high-cost construction projects -such as road bridges- with reasonable accuracy, in order for the state funds to be invested with lower risk and the projects to be designed with the highest possible efficiency. In this paper, a Bill-of-Quantities (BoQ) estimation tool for road bridges is developed in order to support the decisions made at the preliminary planning and design stages of highways. Specifically, a Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with a hidden layer of 10 neurons is trained to predict the superstructure material quantities (concrete, pre-stressed steel and reinforcing steel) using the width of the deck, the adjusted length of span or cantilever and the type of the bridge as input variables. The training dataset includes actual data from 68 recently constructed concrete motorway bridges in Greece. According to the relevant metrics, the developed model captures very well the complex interrelations in the dataset and demonstrates strong generalisation capability. Furthermore, it outperforms the linear regression models developed for the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed cost estimation model stands as a useful and reliable tool for the construction industry as it enables planners to reach informed decisions for technical and economic planning of concrete bridge projects from their early implementation stages.

Studies on the dynamics and rheology of dilute suspensions of Brownian particles in simple shear flow under the action of an external force

We present a novel approach to computing the orientation moments and rheological properties of a dilute suspension of spheroids in a simple shear flow at arbitrary Peclct number based on a generalised Langevin equation method. This method differs from the diffusion equation method which is commonly used to model similar systems in that the actual equations of motion for the orientations of the individual particles are used in the computations, instead of a solution of the diffusion equation of the system. It also differs from the method of 'Brownian dynamics simulations' in that the equations used for the simulations are deterministic differential equations even in the presence of noise, and not stochastic differential equations as in Brownian dynamics simulations. One advantage of the present approach over the Fokker-Planck equation formalism is that it employs a common strategy that can be applied across a wide range of shear and diffusion parameters. Also, since deterministic differential equations are easier to simulate than stochastic differential equations, the Langevin equation method presented in this work is more efficient and less computationally intensive than Brownian dynamics simulations.We derive the Langevin equations governing the orientations of the particles in the suspension and evolve a procedure for obtaining the equation of motion for any orientation moment. A computational technique is described for simulating the orientation moments dynamically from a set of time-averaged Langevin equations, which can be used to obtain the moments when the governing equations are harder to solve analytically. The results obtained using this method are in good agreement with those available in the literature.The above computational method is also used to investigate the effect of rotational Brownian motion on the rheology of the suspension under the action of an external force field. The force field is assumed to be either constant or periodic. In the case of con- I stant external fields earlier results in the literature are reproduced, while for the case of periodic forcing certain parametric regimes corresponding to weak Brownian diffusion are identified where the rheological parameters evolve chaotically and settle onto a low dimensional attractor. The response of the system to variations in the magnitude and orientation of the force field and strength of diffusion is also analyzed through numerical experiments. It is also demonstrated that the aperiodic behaviour exhibited by the system could not have been picked up by the diffusion equation approach as presently used in the literature.The main contributions of this work include the preparation of the basic framework for applying the Langevin method to standard flow problems, quantification of rotary Brownian effects by using the new method, the paired-moment scheme for computing the moments and its use in solving an otherwise intractable problem especially in the limit of small Brownian motion where the problem becomes singular, and a demonstration of how systems governed by a Fokker-Planck equation can be explored for possible chaotic behaviour.

Studies on Two-Photon Absorption of Aniline Using Thermal Lens Effect

Two-photon absorption spectrum of aniline is recorded using thermal lens effect with optical parametric oscillator as the pump source. Studies show that the two-photon absorption spectrum observed corresponds to I Al -. I B2 transition of aniline.