PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WORKSHOP OVERVIEW Introduction Goals and objectives of the workshop Organizing committee, participants, sponsors and venue Workshop activity NEMURO.FISH COUPLED WITH A POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL (SAURY) Introduction One cohort case with no reproduction Two (overlapping) cohort scenario with no reproduction Two-cohort case with no reproduction and body size-dependent mortality Two-cohort case with reproduction and KL-dependent mortality Conclusions and future perspectives LAGRANGIAN MODEL OF NEMURO.FISH Tasks and members Description of model and preliminary results Future tasks COUPLING NEMURO TO HERRING BIOENERGETICS Overview Details of the NEMURO_Herring model Example simulation of NEMURO_Herring Future plans REFERENCES APPENDICES Workshop participants Workshop schedule Lagrangian model (FORTRAN program) (55 page document)

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of the 1999 MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Lower Trophic Level Modelling

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.07 Mb] MODEL Task Team Workshop Report Final Report of the International Workshop to Develop a Prototype Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model for Comparison of Different Marine Ecosystems in the North Pacific [pdf, 11.64 Mb] Report of the 1999 MONITOR Task Team Workshop [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Report of the 1999 REX Task Team Workshop Herring and Euphausiid population dynamics Douglas E. Hay and Bruce McCarter Spatial, temporal and life-stage variation in herring diets in British Columbia [pdf, 0.10 Mb] Augustus J. Paul and J. M. Paul Over winter changes in herring from Prince William Sound, Alaska [pdf, 0.08 Mb] N. G. Chupisheva Qualitative texture characteristic of herring (Clupea pallasi pallasi) pre-larvae developed from the natural and artificial spawning-grounds in Severnaya Bay (Peter the Great Bay) [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish and Jake SchweigertPacific herring: Common factors have opposite impacts in adjacent ecosystems [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Tokimasa Kobayashi, Keizou Yabuki, Masayoshi Sasaki and Jun-Ichi Kodama Long-term fluctuation of the catch of Pacific herring in Northern Japan [pdf, 0.39 Mb] Jacqueline M. O’Connell Holocene fish remains from Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada [pdf, 0.40 Mb] Elsa R. Ivshina and Irina Y. Bragina On relationship between crustacean zooplankton (Euphausiidae and Copepods) and Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring (Tatar Strait, Sea of Japan) [pdf, 0.14 Mb] Stein Kaartvbeedt Fish predation on krill and krill antipredator behaviour [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Nikolai I. Naumenko Euphausiids and western Bering Sea herring feeding [pdf, 0.07 Mb] David M. Checkley, Jr. Interactions Between Fish and Euphausiids and Potential Relations to Climate and Recruitment [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Vladimir I. Radchenko and Elena P. Dulepova Shall we expect the Korf-Karaginsky herring migrations into the offshore western Bering Sea? [pdf, 0.75 Mb] Young Shil Kang Euphausiids in the Korean waters and its relationship with major fish resources [pdf, 0.29 Mb] William T. Peterson, Leah Feinberg and Julie Keister Ecological Zonation of euphausiids off central Oregon [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Environmentally forced variability in larval development and stage-structure: Implications for the recruitment of Euphausia pacifica (Hansen) in the Southern California Bight [pdf, 3.26 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Inverse modelling of developmental parameters in Euphausia pacifica: The relative importance of spawning history and environmental forcing to larval stage-frequency distributions [pdf, 98.79 Mb] Michio J. Kishi, Hitoshi Motono & Kohji Asahi An ecosystem model with zooplankton vertical migration focused on Oyashio region [pdf, 33.32 Mb] PICES-GLOBEC Implementation Panel on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Executive Committee and Task Team List [pdf, 0.05 Mb] (Document pdf contains 142 pages)

Mapping social change in U.S. coastal counties: a social atlas of coastal North Carolina

This document represents a pilot effort to map social change in the coastal United States—a social atlas characterizing changing population, demographic, housing, and economic attributes. This pilot effort focuses on coastal North Carolina. The impetus for this project came from numerous discussions about the usefulness and need for a graphic representation of social change information for U.S. coastal regions. Although the information presented here will be of interest to a broad segment of the coastal community and general public, the intended target audience is coastal natural resource management professionals, Sea Grant Extension staff, urban and regional land-use planners, environmental educators, and other allied constituents interested in the social aspects of how the nation’s coasts are changing. This document has three sections. The first section provides background information about the project. The second section features descriptions of social indicators and depictions of social indicator data for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, and changes from 1970 to 2000 for all North Carolina coastal counties. The third section contains three case studies describing changes in select social attributes for subsets of counties. (PDF contains 67 pages)

Adapting to climate change: Combining economics and geomorphology in coastal policy

How is climate change affecting our coastal environment? How can coastal communities adapt to sea level rise and increased storm risk? These questions have garnered tremendous interest from scientists and policy makers alike, as the dynamic coastal environment is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Over half the world population lives and works in a coastal zone less than 120 miles wide, thereby being continuously affected by the changes in the coastal environment [6]. Housing markets are directly influenced by the physical processes that govern coastal systems. Beach towns like Oak Island in North Carolina (NC) face severe erosion, and the tax assesed value of one coastal property fell by 93% in 2007 [9]. With almost ninety percent of the sandy beaches in the US facing moderate to severe erosion [8], coastal communities often intervene to stabilize the shoreline and hold back the sea in order to protect coastal property and infrastructure. Beach nourishment, which is the process of rebuilding a beach by periodically replacing an eroding section of the beach with sand dredged from another location, is a policy for erosion control in many parts of the US Atlantic and Pacific coasts [3]. Beach nourishment projects in the United States are primarily federally funded and implemented by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) after a benefit-cost analysis. Benefits from beach nourishment include reduction in storm damage and recreational benefits from a wider beach. Costs would include the expected cost of construction, present value of periodic maintenance, and any external cost such as the environmental cost associated with a nourishment project (NOAA). Federal appropriations for nourishment totaled $787 million from 1995 to 2002 [10]. Human interventions to stabilize shorelines and physical coastal dynamics are strongly coupled. The value of the beach, in the form of storm protection and recreation amenities, is at least partly capitalized into property values. These beach values ultimately influence the benefit-cost analysis in support of shoreline stabilization policy, which, in turn, affects the shoreline dynamics. This paper explores the policy implications of this circularity. With a better understanding of the physical-economic feedbacks, policy makers can more effectively design climate change adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Stormsmart coasts in action: Two case studies of local level climate change adaptation

Coastal communities throughout the United States have dealt with the devastating effects of storms for centuries, however today’s threats are greater due to three factors. First, the population along the coastline has grown, and is projected to increase.i Additionally, past land use management decisions in the coastal zone have rarely led to the greatest protection from threats. Finally, climate change is predicted to affect coastal areas by accelerating current sea level rise rates and possibly increasing storm intensity.ii These factors compounded together mean that coastal communities are facing a very dangerous situation that threatens economies and human life. (PDF contains 4 pages)

"Global Change" und das Meer als Nahrungsquelle

The potential importance of marine produetion as a protein ressource for a growing human population can hardly be overestimated. Climatic changes in the marine environment may affect marine production in a significant way. Increasing levels of UV-B may decrease primary production and thus diminish the food base for harvestable marine ressources. Direct effects on early stages of fishes may occur. Temperature changes can lead to additional mortality in the early phase of life histories of fishes. In spite of the potentially negative scenario, actual effects of global change on the ressources have not been detected so far. The marine organisms dispose of a significant level of pre-adaptation to changes of environmental factors both on a seasonal and an interannual scale. Effects on marine life may therefore be less dramatic than those on terrestrial systems, which are more directly linked with the exponentially growing human population.

Climate Change, Responsibilities, and Defeatism and Complacency

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A Comparison of the SNP Variation in the Calcification PMCA Gene of Lottia gigantea between a Santa Barbara Population and a More Acidic Monterey Bay Population

As the atmospheric levels of CO2 rise from human activity, the carbonic acid levels of the ocean increase, causing ocean acidification. This increase in acidity breaks down the calcified bodies that many marine organisms depend upon. Upwelling regions such as Monterey Bay in California have pH levels that are not expected to reach the open ocean for a few decades. This study reviews one of the common intertidal animals of the California coast, the Owl Limpet Lottia gigantea, and its genetic variation of the plasma membrane Ca2+ ATPase (PMCA) in relation to the acidity of its environment. The PMCA protein functions in the calcification process of many organisms. Specifically in limpets, this gene functions to form its protective shell. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found among five sections of the gene to determine variation between the acidic environment population in Monterey, California and the non-acidic environment population in Santa Barbara, California. While some variation was determined, the Monterey Bay and Santa Barbara Lottia gigantea populations are not significantly distinct at the PMCA gene. Sections B, C, and D were found to be linked. Only one location in Section B was found to have an amino acid change within an exon. Section A has the strongest connection to the sampling location. Monterey individuals were seen to be more genetically recognizable, while Santa Barbara individuals showed slightly more variation. Understanding the trends of ocean acidification, upwelling region activities, and population genetics will assist in determining how the ocean environment will behave in the future.

Population structure of Pacific yellowfin tuna

ENGLISH: The population structure and production of Pacific yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, were examined by studying most of the basic data available on stock assessment, as well as other data, for the period 1965 to 1972. The data were obtained mainly from the Japanese longline fishery in the Pacific Ocean east of about 1200E and from the purse-seine fishery in the eastern Pacific east of about 140oW. Data from genetic studies of subpopulations were not used due to their preliminary nature. It was concluded that the concept of "semi-independent" subpopulations proposed by Kamimura and Honma (1963) and Royce (1964) defines the population structure of Pacific yellowfin. At least three stocks (i.e. western, central and eastern), relatively independent of each other, are thought to exist, but the actual number and location of subpopulations is still unclear. Possible north-south separations, indicated to some extent by genetic studies and tagging, could be neither substantiated nor rejected on the basis of this study. Finally, unless some major change in the fishing technology occurs, it is doubtful if any significant sustainable increase in yellowfin production from the Pacific is possible. The greatest potential for increase, if any, appears to be based on changing the size structure of yellowfin in the catch from the central Pacific. SPANISH: Se examino la estructura de la población y la producción del atún aleta amarilla del Pacifico Thunnus albacares para estudiar la mayoría de los datos básicos que se tenían sobre el avalúo de la población, como también otra información correspondiente al periodo de 1965·1972. Los datos fueron obtenidos principalmente de las pescas palangreros japonesas del Océano Pacifico al este de los 1200 E y de las pescas con redes de cerco del Pacifico oriental, al este de los 140oW. No se emplearon los datos de estudios genéticos de las subpoblaciones porque eran mas bien preliminares. Se concluyo que el concepto propuesto por Kamimura y Honma (1963) y Royce (1964) de subpoblaciones "semiindependientes" define la estructura de la población del aleta amarilla en el Pacifico. Se cree que existen por 10 menos tres existencias (e.d. la occidental, central y oriental), relativamente independientes la una de la otra, pero no se conoce con certeza cuantas subpoblaciones hay y donde se encuentran. La posible separación norte-sur, indicada, hasta cierto punto, por los análisis genéticos y del marcado, no puede ni confirmarse ni rechazarse basados en este estudio. Finalmente, a no ser que ocurra algún gran cambio en la tecnología pesquera es dudoso que sea posible obtener un aumento constante e importante en la producción del aleta amarilla del Pacifico. El potencial mayor de aumento, si es que existe alguno, parece que se basa en el cambio de la estructura de talla en la captura del aleta amarilla del Pacifico central. (PDF contains 169 pages.)

Effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño on population size and diet of the Galápagos sea lion (Zalophus wollebaeki)

The multi-annual climatic event, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important factor in the population dynamics of coastal marine species in the Galápagos. The Galápagos sea lion, Zalophus wollebaeki, suffered an apparent population decline of about 50%, considering both mortality and movements away from study sites during the 1997-98 El Niño. This change was in part due to changes in the availability of sardines of the Family Clupeidae, its main prey. These declines resulted partly from elevated mortality (35%) in sea lion colonies, particularly among pups, juveniles (< 1 year old), and dominant males and as a result of movements of adults elsewhere (15%), presumably where there were alternative prey and better environmental conditions.

Standard and routine metabolic rates of juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus), including the effects of body mass and acute temperature change*

Standard and routine metabolic rates (SMRs and RMRs, respectively) of juvenile sandbar sharks (Carcharhinus plumbeus) were measured over a range of body sizes (n=34) and temperatures normally associated with western Atlantic coastal nursery areas. The mean SMR Q10 (increase in metabolic rate with temperature) was 2.9 ±0.2. Heart rate decreased with increasing body mass but increased with temperature at a Q10 of 1.8−2.2. Self-paired measures of SMR and RMR were obtained for 15 individuals. Routine metabolic rate averaged 1.8 ±0.1 times the SMR and was not correlated with body mass. Assuming the maximum metabolic rate of sandbar sharks is 1.8−2.75 times the SMR (as is observed in other elasmobranch species), sandbar sharks are using between 34% and 100% of their metabolic scope just to sustain their routine continuous activity. This limitation may help to explain their slow individual and population growth rates, as well as the slow recoveries from overfishing of many shark stocks worl

Sex-change rules, stock dynamics, and the performance of spawning-per-recruit measures in protogynous stocks

Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change.

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Mitochondrial DNA variation, effective female population size and population history of the endangered Chinese sturgeon, Acipenser sinensis

The anadromous Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), mainly endemic to the Yangtze River in China, is an endangered fish species. The natural population has declined since the Gezhouba Dam blocked its migratory route to the spawning grounds in 1981. In the near future, the completion of the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric project, may further impact this species by altering the water flow of the Yangtze River. Little is currently known about the population genetic structure of the Chinese sturgeon. In this study, DNA sequence data were determined from the control region (D-loop) of the mitochondrial genome of adult sturgeons (n = 106) that were collected between 1995-2000. The molecular data were used to investigate genetic variation, effective female population size and population history of the Chinese sturgeon in the Yangtze River. Our results indicate that the reduction in abundance did not change genetic variation of the Chinese sturgeon, and that the population underwent an expansion in the past. AMOVA analysis indicated that 98.7% of the genetic variability occurred within each year's spawning populations, the year of collection had little influence on the diversity of annual temporary samples. The relative large effective female population size (N-ef) indicates that good potential exists for the recovery of this species in the future. Strikingly, the ratio of N-ef to the census female population size (N-f) is unusually high (0.77-0.93). This may be the result of a current bottleneck in the population of the Chinese sturgeon that is likely caused by human intervention.