Integration of micro- and macroscopic models for pedestrian evacuation simulation

Simulation of pedestrian evacuations of smart buildings in emergency is a powerful tool for building analysis, dynamic evacuation planning and real-time response to the evolving state of evacuations. Macroscopic pedestrian models are low-complexity models that are and well suited to algorithmic analysis and planning, but are quite abstract. Microscopic simulation models allow for a high level of simulation detail but can be computationally intensive. By combining micro- and macro- models we can use each to overcome the shortcomings of the other and enable new capability and applications for pedestrian evacuation simulation that would not be possible with either alone. We develop the EvacSim multi-agent pedestrian simulator and procedurally generate macroscopic flow graph models of building space, integrating micro- and macroscopic approaches to simulation of the same emergency space. By “coupling” flow graph parameters to microscopic simulation results, the graph model captures some of the higher detail and fidelity of the complex microscopic simulation model. The coupled flow graph is used for analysis and prediction of the movement of pedestrians in the microscopic simulation, and investigate the performance of dynamic evacuation planning in simulated emergencies using a variety of strategies for allocation of macroscopic evacuation routes to microscopic pedestrian agents. The predictive capability of the coupled flow graph is exploited for the decomposition of microscopic simulation space into multiple future states in a scalable manner. By simulating multiple future states of the emergency in short time frames, this enables sensing strategy based on simulation scenario pattern matching which we show to achieve fast scenario matching, enabling rich, real-time feedback in emergencies in buildings with meagre sensing capabilities.

Practice-based personas: integrated user and practice models

Practices are routinised behaviours with social and material components and complex relationships over space and time. Practice-based design goes beyond interaction design to consider how these components and their relationships impact on the formation and enactment of a practice, where technology is just one part of the practice. Though situated user-centred design methods such as participatory design are employed for the design of practice, demand exists for additional methods and tools in this area. This paper introduces practice-based personas as an extension of the persona approach popular in interaction design, and demonstrates how a set of practice-based personas was developed for a given domain – academic practice. The three practice-based personas developed here are linked to a catalogue of forty practices, offering designers both a user perspective and a practice perspective when designing for the domain.

Reason, risk, and reward: Models for libraries and other stakeholders in an evolving scholarly publishing ecosystem

Scholarly publishing, and scholarly communication more generally, are based on patterns established over many decades and even centuries. Some of these patterns are clearly valuable and intimately related to core values of the academy, but others were based on the exigencies of the past, and new opportunities have brought into question whether it makes sense to persist in supporting old models. New technologies and new publishing models raise the question of how we should fund and operate scholarly publishing and scholarly communication in the future, moving away from a scarcity model based on the exchange of physical goods that restricts access to scholarly literature unless a market-based exchange takes place. This essay describes emerging models that attempt to shift scholarly communication to a more open-access and mission-based approach and that try to retain control of scholarship by academics and the institutions and scholarly societies that support them. It explores changing practices for funding scholarly journals and changing services provided by academic libraries, changes instituted with the end goal of providing more access to more readers, stimulating new scholarship, and removing inefficiencies from a system ready for change. © 2014 by the American Anthropological Association.

Identifying Barriers and Practical Solutions to Conducting Site-Based Research in North America: Exploring Acute Heart Failure Trials As a Case Study.

Although the prognosis of ambulatory heart failure (HF) has improved dramatically there have been few advances in the management of acute HF (AHF). Despite regional differences in patient characteristics, background therapy, and event rates, AHF clinical trial enrollment has transitioned from North America and Western Europe to Eastern Europe, South America, and Asia-Pacific where regulatory burden and cost of conducting research may be less prohibitive. It is unclear if the results of clinical trials conducted outside of North America are generalizable to US patient populations. This article uses AHF as a paradigm and identifies barriers and practical solutions to successfully conducting site-based research in North America.

Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.

Investigation of the effect of intrauterine inflammation and infection on fetal brain injury using human and animal models

In recent years, increased focus has been placed on the role of intrauterine infection and inflammation in the pathogenesis of fetal brain injury leading to neurodevelopmental disorders such as cerebral palsy. At present, the mechanisms by which inflammatory processes during pregnancy cause this effect on the fetus are poorly understood. Our previous work has indicated an association between experimentally-induced intrauterine infection, increased proinflammatory cytokines, and increased white matter injury in the guinea pig fetus. In order to further elucidate the pathways by which inflammation in the maternal system or the fetal membranes leads to fetal impairment, a number of studies investigating aspects of the disease process have been performed. These studies represent a body of work encompassing novel research and results in a number of human and animal studies. Using a guinea pig model of inflammation, increased amniotic fluid proinflammatory cytokines and fetal brain injury were found after a maternal inflammatory response was initiated using endotoxin. In order to more closely monitor the fetal response to chorioamnionitis, a model using the chronically catheterized fetal ovine was carried out. This study demonstrated the adverse effects on fetal white matter after intrauterine exposure to bacterial inoculation, though the physiological parameters of the fetus were relatively stable throughout the experimental protocol, even when challenged with intermittent hypoxic episodes. The placenta is an important mediator between mother and fetus during gestation, though its role in the inflammatory process is largely undefined. Studies on the placental role in the inflammatory process were undertaken, and the limited ability of proinflammatory cytokines and endotoxin to cross the placenta are detailed herein. Neurodevelopmental disorders can be monitored in animal models in order to determine effective disease models for characterization of injury and use in therapeutic strategies. Our characterizations of postnatal behaviour in the guinea pig model using motility monitoring and spatial memory testing have shown small but significant differences in pups exposed to inflammatory processes in utero. The data presented herein contributes a breadth of knowledge to the ongoing elucidation of the pathways by which fetal brain injury occurs. Determining the pathway of damage will lead to discovery of diagnostic criteria, while determining the vulnerabilities of the developing fetus is essential in formulating therapeutic options.

Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

IMPACT OF RNA VIRUSES ON THE REGULATION OF IL-23 IN MOUSE AND HUMAN MODELS OF INFECTION.

Interluekin-23 (IL-23) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine critical to the regulation of innate and adaptive immune responses. The main role for this cytokine is in the proliferation and differentiation of the IL-17 producing CD4 T helper cell, Th17. Virus infection deregulates IL-23 expression and function, but little is known about the mechanism behind this phenomena. Here, I demonstrate a reduction of Toll like receptor (TLR) ligand-induced IL-23 expression in lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV)-infected bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (BMDCs), indicating that a function of these cells is disrupted during virus infection. I propose a mechanism of TLR ligand-induced IL-23 expression inhibition upon LCMV infection via the deactivation of p38, AP-1, and NF-κB. Further analysis revealed a direct relationship between LCMV infection with the IL-10 and SOCS3 expression. To understand IL-23 function, I characterized IL-23-induced JAK/STAT signalling pathway and IL-23 receptor expression on human CD4 T cells. My results demonstrate that IL-23 induces activation of p-JAK2, p-Tyk2, p-STAT1, p-STAT3, and p-STAT4 in CD4 T cells. For the first time I show that IL-23 alone induces the expression of its own receptor components, IL-12Rβ1 and IL-23Rα, in CD4 T cells. Blocking JAK2, STAT1, and STAT3 activation with specific inhibitors detrimentally effected expression of IL-23 receptor demonstrating that activation of JAK/STAT signalling is important for IL-23 receptor expression. I also addressed the effect of viral infection on IL-23 function and receptor expression in CD4 T cells using cells isolated from HIV positive individuals. These studies were based on earlier reports that the expression of IL-23 and the IL-23 receptor are impaired during HIV infection. I demonstrate that the phosphorylation of JAK2, STAT1, and STAT3 induced by IL-23, as well as IL-23 receptor expression are deregulated in CD4 T cells isolated from HIV positive individuals. This study has furthered the understanding of how the expression and function of IL-23 is regulated during viral infections.

B-type supergiants in the SMC: Chemical compositions and comparison of static and unified models

High-resolution UCLES/AAT spectra are presented for nine B-type supergiants in the SMC, chosen on the basis that they may show varying amounts of nuclear-synthetically processed material mixed to their surface. These spectra have been analysed using a new grid of approximately 12 000 non-LTE line blanketed tlusty model atmospheres to estimate atmospheric parameters and chemical composition. The abundance estimates for O, Mg and Si are in excellent agreement with those deduced from other studies, whilst the low estimate for C may reflect the use of the C II doublet at 4267 Å. The N estimates are approximately an order of magnitude greater than those found in unevolved B-type stars or H II regions but are consistent with the other estimates in AB-type supergiants. These results have been combined with results from a unified model atmosphere analysis of UVES/VLT spectra of B-type supergiants (Trundle et al. 2004, A&A, 417, 217) to discuss the evolutionary status of these objects. For two stars that are in common with those discussed by Trundle et al., we have undertaken a careful comparison in order to try to understand the relative importance of the different uncertainties present in such analyses, including observational errors and the use of static or unified models. We find that even for these relatively luminous supergiants, tlusty models yield atmospheric parameters and chemical compositions similar to those deduced from the unified code fastwind.

Philosophers and practical men: Charles Babbage, Irish merchants and the economics of information

Before the emergence of coordination of production by firms, manufacturers and merchants traded in markets with asymmetric information. Evidence suggests that the practical knowledge thus gained by these agents was well in advance of contemporary political economists and anticipates twentieth-century developments in the economics of information. Charles Babbage, who regarded merchants and manufacturers as the chief sources of reliable economic data, drew on this knowledge as revealed in the evidence of manufacturers and merchants presented to House of Commons select committees to make an important pioneering contribution to the theory of production and exchange with information asymmetries.