Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

The influence of fibre orientation on the post-cracking tensile behaviour of steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete

Adding fibres to concrete provides several advantages, especially in terms of controlling the crack opening width and propagation after the cracking onset. However, distribution and orientation of the fibres toward the active crack plane are significantly important in order to maximize its benefits. Therefore, in this study, the effect of the fibre distribution and orientation on the post-cracking tensile behaviour of the steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete (SFRSCC) specimens is investigated. For this purpose, several cores were extracted from distinct locations of a panel and were subjected to indirect (splitting) and direct tensile tests. The local stress-crack opening relationship (σ-w) was obtained by modelling the splitting tensile test under the finite element framework and by performing an Inverse Analysis (IA) procedure. Afterwards the σ-w law obtained from IA is then compared with the one ascertained directly from the uniaxial tensile tests. Finally, the fibre distribution/orientation parameters were determined adopting an image analysis technique.

Time-dependent flexural behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete panels

In the present work are described and discussed the results of an extensive experimental program that aims to study the long-term behaviour of cracked steel fibre reinforced self-compacting concrete, SFRSCC, applied in laminar structures. In a first stage, the influence of the initial crack opening level (wcr = 0.3 and 0.5 mm), applied stress level, fibre orientation/dispersion and distance from the casting point, on the flexural creep behaviour of SFRSCC was investigated. Moreover, in order to evaluate the effects of the creep phenomenon on the residual flexural strength, a series of monotonic tests were also executed. It was found that wcr = 0.5 mm series showed a higher creep coefficient comparing to the series with a lower initial crack opening. Furthermore, the creep performance of the SFRSCC was influenced by the orientation of the extracted prismatic specimens regarding the direction of the concrete flow within the cast panel.

Attachment orientation and caretaking memories in fathers during the transition to parenthood

Dissertação de mestrado em Psicologia Aplicada

Induced magnetoelectric effect driven by magnetization in BaFe12O19 -/P(VDF-TrFE) composites

Films of BaFe12O19/P(VDF-TrFE) composites with 5, 10 and 20 %wt Barium ferrite content have been fabricated. BaFe12O19 microparticles have the shape of thin hexagonal platelets, the easy direction of magnetization remaining along the c axis, which is perpendicular to the plates. This fact allows for ferrite particles orientation in-plane and out-of-plane within the composite films, as confirmed by measured hysteresis loops. While the in-plane induced magnetoelectric effect (ME) is practically zero, these composite films show a good out-of-plane magnetoelectric effect. with maximum ME coupling coefficient changes of 3, 17 and 2 mV/cm.Oe for the 5, 10 and 20%wt Barium ferrite content films, respectively. We infer that this ME behavior appears as driven by the magnetization process arising when we applied the external magnetic field. We have also measured linear and reversible magnetoelectric effect for low applied bias field, when magnetization process is still reversible.

Desenvolvimento de materiais para isolamento térmico com base em biomimética

Dissertação de mestrado Internacional em Sustentabilidade do Ambiente Construído

Résultats du voyage du S.Y. Belgica en 1897-1898-1899 : sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery. Rapports scientifiques publiés aux frais du gouvernement belge, sous la direction de la Commission de la Belgica.

R15, Zoologie, Céphalopodes

Résultats du voyage du S.Y. Belgica en 1897-1898-1899 : sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery. Rapports scientifiques publiés aux frais du gouvernement belge, sous la direction de la Commission de la Belgica.

R10, Zoologie, Copepoden

Résultats du voyage du S.Y. Belgica en 1897-1898-1899 : sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery. Rapports scientifiques publiés aux frais du gouvernement belge, sous la direction de la Commission de la Belgica.

R13, Botanique, Lichens

Résultats du voyage du S.Y. Belgica en 1897-1898-1899 : sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery. Rapports scientifiques publiés aux frais du gouvernement belge, sous la direction de la Commission de la Belgica.

R26, Zoologie, Organogénie des pinnipèdes, les ext

Résultats du voyage du S.Y. Belgica en 1897-1898-1899 : sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery. Rapports scientifiques publiés aux frais du gouvernement belge, sous la direction de la Commission de la Belgica.

R30-A50, Zoologie, Insectes

Résultats du voyage du S.Y. Belgica en 1897-1898-1899 : sous le commandement de A. de Gerlache de Gomery. Rapports scientifiques publiés aux frais du gouvernement belge, sous la direction de la Commission de la Belgica.

A3, Océanographie, Rapport sue les densités de l'e