Optimum design of experiments for statistical inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caries and its association with infant feeding and oral health-related behaviours in 3-4-year-old Brazilian children

Objectives: To investigate the relationships between socio-demographic factors, infant feeding habits, oral hygiene and the prevalence and patterns of caries in Brazilian 3-4-year-olds. Methods: Systematic random sampling was used to select children enrolled in municipal nurseries in Araraquara, Brazil, in 1998. Clinical examinations were carried out by one examiner using dmft and dmfs indices and WHO criteria. Questionnaires for information related to the socio-demographic background, oral hygiene and dietary history of the children were completed by their mothers. Results: Caries was seen in 46% of the children; 17% of them had the more extensive pattern involving molars and incisors. Social class, mother's education, and age at which breast-feeding terminated showed statistically significant associations with caries. Feeding bottles with added sugars were still being given to 80% of the children. When the significant variables were taken into account only age at which breast-feeding terminated showed a significant relationship to the pattern of disease. Children who were never breast-fed or were breast-fed beyond the age of 24 months had a higher prevalence of the more extensive pattern of caries. Conclusions: The association between the length of time a mother breast-feeds and extensive caries should be a consideration in any local infant feeding policies or health promotion strategies. The duration for appropriate breast- or bottle-feeding should be emphasised.

Old and new trade policies

Includes bibliography

Report on the implementation of the 2009-2011 biennial programme of regional and international cooperation activities of the Statistical Conference of the Americas of ECLAC

Incluye Bibliografía

Digestible tryptophan requirements for broilers from 22 to 42 days old

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Report of the second expert group meeting on the development account supported project in MDG/IADG monitoring in the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, held a two-day expert group meeting on Millennium Development Goals (MDG) monitoring and reporting with a particular focus on health-related indicators in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago, on 16-17 June 2009. This meeting was convened within the framework of the United Nations Development Account-funded project ‘Strengthening the Capacity of National Statistical Offices in the Caribbean Small Island Developing States to fulfil the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and other Internationally Agreed Development Goals (IADGs)’.

Desenvolvimento do dimorfismo sexual em espécies de macacos-prego, gênero Cebus Erxleben, 1777 (Primates, Cebidae)

Os trabalhos sobre dimorfismo sexual em Cebus disponíveis na literatura apontam Cebus apella como a espécie mais dimórfica do gênero. Contudo, vale ressaltar que diversas espécies de macacos-prego eram consideradas anteriormente subespécies de C. apella, sendo analisadas em conjunto nestes estudos. O arranjo taxonômico que segui neste estudo considera tais táxons como espécies válidas, com considerável grau de diferenciação morfológica. A maior parte destes estudos utilizou somente exemplares adultos, assumindo que os indivíduos cessariam seu crescimento assim que a sua dentição estivesse completa. A falta de estudos sobre idades anteriores à idade adulta pode resultar em um entendimento incompleto sobre a natureza do dimorfismo sexual, pois níveis similares deste dimorfismo podem ser gerados por diferentes processos ontogenéticos, refletindo causas evolutivas distintas. Com base nestas informações, os objetivos do presente estudo foram verificar as diferenças sexuais cranianas e no grau de desenvolvimento dos tufos do capuz da cabeça ao longo da ontogenia de seis espécies de macacos-prego, todas pertencentes ao subgênero Sapajus (Cebus apella, C. macrocephalus, C. libidinosus, C. cay, C. nigritus e C. robustus) e confrontar os resultados obtidos entre as espécies para constatar se existem diferenças interespecíficas. Para tanto, examinei 774 espécimes depositados em coleções científicas brasileiras. Mensurei 20 variáveis craniométricas, examinei 12 caracteres cranianos discretos e estabeleci quatro estados de caráter para o grau de desenvolvimento dos tufos do capuz. Avaliei o dimorfismo sexual através do teste t de Student com ajustamento de Bonferroni e empreguei Análise de Componentes Principais (ACP), seguida de Análise de Função Discriminante (AFD) para testar a significância dos agrupamentos etários (infantes, jovens, subadultos e adultos, sendo este último grupo dividido em AD1 e AD2 para C. apella). Os resultados mostraram que diferenças sexuais cranianas podem ser evidenciadas no subgênero Sapajus somente a partir da idade subadulta (aproximadamente 3,5 anos de idade), sendo o comprimento dos caninos a mais conspícua. Contudo, estas diferenças ainda não são estatisticamente significativas. Somente a partir da idade adulta (cerca de 5 anos de idade) a maior parte das variáveis cranianas passou a apresentar dimorfismo sexual significativo, com as espécies comportando-se de modo distinto em relação ao tipo e número de variáveis dimórficas. As espécies que apresentaram maior número de variáveis significativas foram C. apella e C. robustus (N=15), seguidas de C. nigritus (N=13), C. libidinosus (N=10), C. cay (N=7) e C. macrocephalus (N=3). Estudos anteriores apontam que o dimorfismo sexual craniano em Cebus (Sapajus) surge em indivíduos jovens (cerca de 27 meses de idade). Os resultados obtidos neste estudo não corroboram esta idéia, pois demonstram que o dimorfismo sexual significativo surge apenas em indivíduos adultos. Tais resultados ainda sugerem que o processo heterocrônico da taxa de hipermorfose representa o principal fator para o padrão ontogenético de dimorfismo sexual craniano exibido. A despeito do dimorfismo sexual craniano, as espécies de macacos-prego diferem entre si em relação ao grau de desenvolvimento dos tufos do capuz. Constatei que o desenvolvimento dos tufos do capuz em Cebus (Sapajus) está diretamente relacionado à idade, não existindo dimorfismo sexual quanto ao grau de desenvolvimento desta estrutura em C. cay, C. robustus e C. nigritus. Em contrapartida, parece existir dimorfismo sexual negativo em relação ao desenvolvimento dos tufos em C. libidinosus, fato que carece de maiores investigações. Por fim, os resultados deste estudo sugerem que as espécies de macacos-prego podem ter experimentado diferentes graus e/ou tipos de pressões seletivas quanto ao dimorfismo sexual ao longo de sua história evolutiva.

Digestible valine requirements for broilers from 22 and 42 days old

Current experiment established different criteria to evaluate the requirements of digestible valine for broilers from 22 and 42 days of age, by different regression models (quadratic, exponential and Linear Response Plateau) and, in the case of statistical significance, the comparison of means by Duncan test at 5% probability. A total of 1,920 Cobb 500 male broilers were used and distributed in an entirely randomized experimental design, with 6 treatments (6 digestible valine levels: 0.7192, 0.7729, 0.8265, 0.8802, 0.9339 and 0.9876%) and 8 replications, with 40 broilers each. Data on performance and carcass characteristics were evaluated. The level of 0.8265% digestible valine was considered standard. The inclusion of 0.816, 0.848 and 0.903% of digestible valine levels, corresponding to digestible valine:lysine ratios of approximately 76.00%, 79.00% and 84.12%, provided best feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion ratio, respectively for broiler from 22 to 42 days of age.

Heydrichia (?) poignantii, sp nov (Sporolithaceae, Sporolithales, Rhodophyta), a 100 million year old fossil coralline red alga from north-eastern Brazil, and a new Hauterivian record of Sporolithon from Switzerland

Fossil specimens of Heydrichia (?) poignantii, sp. nov. (Sporolithaceae, Sporolithales, Rhodophyta), representing the first confirmation of the genus in the fossil record, were discovered in thin sections of Albian limestones from the Riachuelo Formation, Sergipe Basin, and in thin sections of Albian -Cenomanian limestones from the Ponta do Mel Formation, Potiguar Basin in north-eastern Brazil. A detailed morphological-anatomical account of the species is provided, and its placement in Heydrichia is discussed in relation to current classification proposals. Comparisons with the four other known species of the genus, all non-fossil, show that H. poignantii is the only known species of Heydrichia in which thalli are encrusting to sparsely warty to horizontally layered with overlapping lamellate branches that commonly appear variously curved or arched, and in which thalli have sporangial complexes that become buried in the thallus. The evolutionary history of Heydrichia remains uncertain, but available data suggest that the genus may have diverged from the sporolithacean genus Sporolithon, known as early as Hauterivian times (c. 129.4-132.9 +/- 1 Ma) from Spain (and newly reported here from Switzerland), or it may have arisen from a graticulacean alga such as Graticula, dating from mid-Silurian times (c. 427-435 Ma). Current data also suggest that Heydrichia is more likely to have arrived in Brazil from Central Atlantic waters than from higher latitude South Atlantic waters. This implies that currently living species in southern Africa probably arose later from ancestors further equatorward in the South Atlantic, although confirming studies are needed. All non-fossil species of Heydrichia are known only from the southern hemisphere.

Concilier les données qualitatives et quantitatives: un défi pour les recherches en acquisition du langage

What is the role of qualitative data? How should mixed approaches be considered? Is it necessary to complement the quantitative approach by the qualitative approach (Maziére et al., 2010) or the opposite? How can these two approaches be combined in a Language Acquisition research? What are the possibilities of generalization that these approaches provide? Besides those necessary theoretical discussions, our starting point is a qualitative research on the acquisition of the plural morpheme in Brazilian Portuguese (BP) in children between 1 year 11 months old and 2 years 7 months old (Hilário, 2012), whose linguistic production is intrinsically connected to their dialogic aspect (Bakhtin & Vološinov, 1973) and to the interaction among interlocutors (Bruner, 2004; Vygotsky, 1986). In this research through the usage of a computational tool (CLAN) it is expected to have more visibility of the quantitative results even if they are in a qualitative approach. Although, it should be taken into account the fact that each approach can achieve valid and relevant results (Valsiner 2000), i.e., with any given method it is possible to reach a kind of generalization (statistical or analytical).

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR RARE AND COMMON VARIANT ASSOCIATION STUDIES

Complex human diseases are a major challenge for biological research. The goal of my research is to develop effective methods for biostatistics in order to create more opportunities for the prevention and cure of human diseases. This dissertation proposes statistical technologies that have the ability of being adapted to sequencing data in family-based designs, and that account for joint effects as well as gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in the GWA studies. The framework includes statistical methods for rare and common variant association studies. Although next-generation DNA sequencing technologies have made rare variant association studies feasible, the development of powerful statistical methods for rare variant association studies is still underway. Chapter 2 demonstrates two adaptive weighting methods for rare variant association studies based on family data for quantitative traits. The results show that both proposed methods are robust to population stratification, robust to the direction and magnitude of the effects of causal variants, and more powerful than the methods using weights suggested by Madsen and Browning [2009]. In Chapter 3, I extended the previously proposed test for Testing the effect of an Optimally Weighted combination of variants (TOW) [Sha et al., 2012] for unrelated individuals to TOW &ndash F, TOW for Family &ndash based design. Simulation results show that TOW &ndash F can control for population stratification in wide range of population structures including spatially structured populations, is robust to the directions of effect of causal variants, and is relatively robust to percentage of neutral variants. In GWA studies, this dissertation consists of a two &ndash locus joint effect analysis and a two-stage approach accounting for gene &ndash gene and gene &ndash environment interaction. Chapter 4 proposes a novel two &ndash stage approach, which is promising to identify joint effects, especially for monotonic models. The proposed approach outperforms a single &ndash marker method and a regular two &ndash stage analysis based on the two &ndash locus genotypic test. In Chapter 5, I proposed a gene &ndash based two &ndash stage approach to identify gene &ndash gene and gene &ndash environment interactions in GWA studies which can include rare variants. The two &ndash stage approach is applied to the GAW 17 dataset to identify the interaction between KDR gene and smoking status.

Statistical analysis of multichannel scalp field data

High density spatial and temporal sampling of EEG data enhances the quality of results of electrophysiological experiments. Because EEG sources typically produce widespread electric fields (see Chapter 3) and operate at frequencies well below the sampling rate, increasing the number of electrodes and time samples will not necessarily increase the number of observed processes, but mainly increase the accuracy of the representation of these processes. This is namely the case when inverse solutions are computed. As a consequence, increasing the sampling in space and time increases the redundancy of the data (in space, because electrodes are correlated due to volume conduction, and time, because neighboring time points are correlated), while the degrees of freedom of the data change only little. This has to be taken into account when statistical inferences are to be made from the data. However, in many ERP studies, the intrinsic correlation structure of the data has been disregarded. Often, some electrodes or groups of electrodes are a priori selected as the analysis entity and considered as repeated (within subject) measures that are analyzed using standard univariate statistics. The increased spatial resolution obtained with more electrodes is thus poorly represented by the resulting statistics. In addition, the assumptions made (e.g. in terms of what constitutes a repeated measure) are not supported by what we know about the properties of EEG data. From the point of view of physics (see Chapter 3), the natural “atomic” analysis entity of EEG and ERP data is the scalp electric field

Are clustering effects accounted for in statistical analysis in leading dental specialty journals?

OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.

Optimal time for initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-infected, treatment-naive children aged 2 to 5 years old

BACKGROUND The use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) comprising three antiretroviral medications from at least two classes of drugs is the current standard treatment for HIV infection in adults and children. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for antiretroviral therapy recommend early treatment regardless of immunologic thresholds or the clinical condition for all infants (less than one years of age) and children under the age of two years. For children aged two to five years current WHO guidelines recommend (based on low quality evidence) that clinical and immunological thresholds be used to identify those who need to start cART (advanced clinical stage or CD4 counts ≤ 750 cells/mm(3) or per cent CD4 ≤ 25%). This Cochrane review will inform the current available evidence regarding the optimal time for treatment initiation in children aged two to five years with the goal of informing the revision of WHO 2013 recommendations on when to initiate cART in children. OBJECTIVES To assess the evidence for the optimal time to initiate cART in treatment-naive, HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, the AEGIS conference database, specific relevant conferences, www.clinicaltrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry platform and reference lists of articles. The date of the most recent search was 30 September 2012. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared immediate with deferred initiation of cART, and prospective cohort studies which followed children from enrolment to start of cART and on cART. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors considered studies for inclusion in the review, assessed the risk of bias, and extracted data on the primary outcome of death from all causes and several secondary outcomes, including incidence of CDC category C and B clinical events and per cent CD4 cells (CD4%) at study end. For RCTs we calculated relative risks (RR) or mean differences with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). For cohort data, we extracted relative risks with 95% CI from adjusted analyses. We combined results from RCTs using a random effects model and examined statistical heterogeneity. MAIN RESULTS Two RCTs in HIV-positive children aged 1 to 12 years were identified. One trial was the pilot study for the larger second trial and both compared initiation of cART regardless of clinical-immunological conditions with deferred initiation until per cent CD4 dropped to <15%. The two trials were conducted in Thailand, and Thailand and Cambodia, respectively. Unpublished analyses of the 122 children enrolled at ages 2 to 5 years were included in this review. There was one death in the immediate cART group and no deaths in the deferred group (RR 2.9; 95% CI 0.12 to 68.9). In the subgroup analysis of children aged 24 to 59 months, there was one CDC C event in each group (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.06 to 14.87) and 8 and 11 CDC B events in the immediate and deferred groups respectively (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.24 to 3.73). In this subgroup, the mean difference in CD4 per cent at study end was 5.9% (95% CI 2.7 to 9.1). One cohort study from South Africa, which compared the effect of delaying cART for up to 60 days in 573 HIV-positive children starting tuberculosis treatment (median age 3.5 years), was also included. The adjusted hazard ratios for the effect on mortality of delaying ART for more than 60 days was 1.32 (95% CI 0.55 to 3.16). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS This systematic review shows that there is insufficient evidence from clinical trials in support of either early or CD4-guided initiation of ART in HIV-infected children aged 2 to 5 years. Programmatic issues such as the retention in care of children in ART programmes in resource-limited settings will need to be considered when formulating WHO 2013 recommendations.