Psychometric evaluation and experimental validation of the statistics anxiety rating scale.

The Statistics Anxiety Rating Scale (STARS) was adapted into German to examine its psychometric properties (n = 400). Two validation studies (n = 66, n = 96) were conducted to examine its criterion-related validity. The psychometric properties of the questionnaire were very similar to those previously reported for the original English version in various countries and other language versions. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated 2 second-order factors: One was more closely related to anxiety and the other was more closely related to negative attitudes toward statistics. Predictive validity of the STARS was shown both in an experimental exam-like situation in the laboratory and during a real examination situation. Taken together, the findings indicate that statistics anxiety as assessed by the STARS is a useful construct that is more than just an expression of a more general disposition to anxiety.

Internal representations of temporal statistics and feedback calibrate motor-sensory interval timing.

Humans have been shown to adapt to the temporal statistics of timing tasks so as to optimize the accuracy of their responses, in agreement with the predictions of Bayesian integration. This suggests that they build an internal representation of both the experimentally imposed distribution of time intervals (the prior) and of the error (the loss function). The responses of a Bayesian ideal observer depend crucially on these internal representations, which have only been previously studied for simple distributions. To study the nature of these representations we asked subjects to reproduce time intervals drawn from underlying temporal distributions of varying complexity, from uniform to highly skewed or bimodal while also varying the error mapping that determined the performance feedback. Interval reproduction times were affected by both the distribution and feedback, in good agreement with a performance-optimizing Bayesian observer and actor model. Bayesian model comparison highlighted that subjects were integrating the provided feedback and represented the experimental distribution with a smoothed approximation. A nonparametric reconstruction of the subjective priors from the data shows that they are generally in agreement with the true distributions up to third-order moments, but with systematically heavier tails. In particular, higher-order statistical features (kurtosis, multimodality) seem much harder to acquire. Our findings suggest that humans have only minor constraints on learning lower-order statistical properties of unimodal (including peaked and skewed) distributions of time intervals under the guidance of corrective feedback, and that their behavior is well explained by Bayesian decision theory.

A systematic approach for improving the quality of official statistics: Case of Korean information and telecommunication industry

With the rapid growth of information and communication technology (ICT) in Korea, there was a need to improve the quality of official ICT statistics. In order to do this, various factors had to be considered, such as the quality of surveying, processing, and output as well as the reputation of the statistical agency. We used PLS estimation to determine how these factors might influence customer satisfaction. Furthermore, through a comparison of associated satisfaction indices, we provided feedback to the responsible statistics agency. It appears that our model can be used as a tool for improving the quality of official ICT statistics. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Degree of fourth-order coherence by double Hanbury Brown-Twiss detections

Photon quantum statistics of light can be shown by the high-order coherence. The fourth-order coherences of various quantum states including Pock states, coherent states, thermal states and squeezed vacuum states are investigated based on a double Banbury Brown Twiss (HBT) scheme. The analytical results are obtained by taking the overall efficiency and background into account.

AASK - Aircraft accident statistics and knowledge: A database of human experience in evacuation, derived from aviation accident reports

Computer based mathematical models describing the aircraft evacuation process have a vital role to play in aviation safety. However such models have a heavy dependency on real evacuation data in order to (a) identify the key processes and factors associated with evacuation, (b) quantify variables and parameters associated with the identified factors/processes and finally (c) validate the models. The Fire Safety Engineering Group of the University of Greenwich is undertaking a large data extraction exercise from three major data sources in order to address these issues. This paper describes the extraction and application of data from one of these sources - aviation accident reports. To aid in the storage and analysis of the raw data, a computer database known as AASK (aircraft accident statistics and knowledge) is under development. AASK is being developed to store human observational and anecdotal data contained in accident reports and interview transcripts. AASK comprises four component sub-databases. These consist of the ACCIDENT (crash details), FLIGHT ATTENDANT (observations and actions of the flight attendants), FATALS (details concerning passenger fatalities) and PAX (observations and accounts from individual passengers) databases. AASK currently contains information from 25 survivable aviation accidents covering the period 4 April 1977 to 6 August 1995, involving some 2415 passengers, 2210 survivors, 205 fatalities and accounts from 669 people. In addition to aiding the development of aircraft evacuation models, AASK is also being used to challenge some of the myths which proliferate in the aviation safety industry such as, passenger exit selection during evacuation, nature and frequency of seat jumping, speed of passenger response and group dynamics. AASK can also be used to aid in the development of a more comprehensive approach to conducting post accident interviews, and will eventually be used to store the data directly.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

Corrigendum Vol. 30, Issue 2, 259, Article first published online: 15 MAR 2009 to correct the order of authors names: Bu R., K. Hadri, and B. McCabe.

Higher-order effects and ultrashort solitons in left-handed metamaterials

Starting from Maxwell's equations, we use the reductive perturbation method to derive a second-order and a third-order nonlinear Schrodinger equation, describing ultrashort solitons in nonlinear left-handed metamaterials. We find necessary conditions and derive exact bright and dark soliton solutions of these equations for the electric and magnetic field envelopes.

At Home in Care: Children living with birth parents on a Care Order

This study explored the processes, background information, and perceived reasons why children and young people returned home while remaining in care, in the five HSC Trusts in Northern Ireland. The research also focused on understanding the functions the Care Order had for social services, the birth parents, and young people involved.
It was found that on 31st March 2009, there were 193 children/young people living with their birth parents on a Care Order in Northern Ireland. This is eight per cent of the total population of Looked After children, and is lower than had been anticipated from governmental statistics. In total, the case files of 47 of these young people (24% of them) were reviewed, and interviews were conducted with ten of them and their birth parent/s.
The analysis revealed that the majority of them had in common a parental background history of alcohol abuse and domestic violence, and most return breakdowns in the study were related to continuing parental alcohol and/or drugs misuse. While some children had a planned return home after parents had engaged in supports and completed assessments, many young people had returns that were not planned, as they initiated the move themselves, or previous foster placements had broken down and there were no alternative placements identified for them. Many of these young people essentially ‘voted with their feet’, and social services were required to ensure that they remained safe in often less than optimal circumstances.
After returning home, for many, Care Orders remained for initially unintended lengthy periods because of the risks posed by parents’ intermittent alcohol abuse and their lifestyle, contact issues, and parents’ desire to ensure that their children were able to access the supports that they needed. Thus, Care Orders at home tended to serve two main functions: to either monitor and/or support the placement.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Edge excitations and topological order in rotating Bose gas

The edge excitations and related topological orders of correlated states of a fast rotating Bose gas are studied. Using exact diagonalization of small systems, we compute the energies and number of edge excitations, as well as the boson occupancy near the edge for various states. The chiral Luttinger-liquid theory of Wen is found to be a good description of the edges of the bosonic Laughlin and other states identified as members of the principal Jain sequence for bosons. However, we find that in a harmonic trap the edge of the state identified as the Moore-Read (Pfaffian) state shows a number of anomalies. An experimental way of detecting these correlated states is also discussed.

Some problems in set topology relating group of homeomorphisms and order

In this thesis we investigate some problems in set theoretical topology related to the concepts of the group of homeomorphisms and order. Many problems considered are directly or indirectly related to the concept of the group of homeomorphisms of a topological space onto itself. Order theoretic methods are used extensively. Chapter-l deals with the group of homeomorphisms. This concept has been investigated by several authors for many years from different angles. It was observed that nonhomeomorphic topological spaces can have isomorphic groups of homeomorphisms. Many problems relating the topological properties of a space and the algebraic properties of its group of homeomorphisms were investigated. The group of isomorphisms of several algebraic, geometric, order theoretic and topological structures had also been investigated. A related concept of the semigroup of continuous functions of a topological space also received attention

A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics

A stochastic parameterization scheme for deep convection is described, suitable for use in both climate and NWP models. Theoretical arguments and the results of cloud-resolving models, are discussed in order to motivate the form of the scheme. In the deterministic limit, it tends to a spectrum of entraining/detraining plumes and is similar to other current parameterizations. The stochastic variability describes the local fluctuations about a large-scale equilibrium state. Plumes are drawn at random from a probability distribution function (pdf) that defines the chance of finding a plume of given cloud-base mass flux within each model grid box. The normalization of the pdf is given by the ensemble-mean mass flux, and this is computed with a CAPE closure method. The characteristics of each plume produced are determined using an adaptation of the plume model from the Kain-Fritsch parameterization. Initial tests in the single column version of the Unified Model verify that the scheme is effective in producing the desired distributions of convective variability without adversely affecting the mean state.

Cloud statistics and cloud radiative effect for a low-mountain site

In 2007, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) was operated for a nine-month period in the Murg Valley, Black Forest, Germany, in support of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). The synergy of AMF and COPS partner instrumentation was exploited to derive a set of high-quality thermodynamic and cloud property profiles with 30 s resolution. In total, clouds were present 72% of the time, with multi-layer mixed phase (28.4%) and single-layer water clouds (11.3%) occurring most frequently. A comparison with the Cloudnet sites Chilbolton and Lindenberg for the same time period revealed that the Murg Valley exhibits lower liquid water paths (LWPs; median = 37.5 g m−2) compared to the two sites located in flat terrain. In order to evaluate the derived thermodynamic and cloud property profiles, a radiative closure study was performed with independent surface radiation measurements. In clear sky, average differences between calculated and observed surface fluxes are less than 2% and 4% for the short wave and long wave part, respectively. In cloudy situations, differences between simulated and observed fluxes, particularly in the short wave part, are much larger, but most of these can be related to broken cloud situations. The daytime cloud radiative effect (CRE), i.e. the difference of cloudy and clear-sky net fluxes, has been analysed for the whole nine-month period. For overcast, single-layer water clouds, sensitivity studies revealed that the CRE uncertainty is likewise determined by uncertainties in liquid water content and effective radius. For low LWP clouds, CRE uncertainty is dominated by LWP uncertainty; therefore refined retrievals, such as using infrared and/or higher microwave frequencies, are needed.