ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Grouping genetic operators for the delineation of functional areas based on spatial interaction

The delineation of functional economic areas, or market areas, is a problem of high practical relevance, since the delineation of functional sets such as economic areas in the US, Travel-to-Work Areas in the United Kingdom, and their counterparts in other OECD countries are the basis of many statistical operations and policy making decisions at local level. This is a combinatorial optimisation problem defined as the partition of a given set of indivisible spatial units (covering a territory) into regions characterised by being (a) self-contained and (b) cohesive, in terms of spatial interaction data (flows, relationships). Usually, each region must reach a minimum size and self-containment level, and must be continuous. Although these optimisation problems have been typically solved through greedy methods, a recent strand of the literature in this field has been concerned with the use of evolutionary algorithms with ad hoc operators. Although these algorithms have proved to be successful in improving the results of some of the more widely applied official procedures, they are so time consuming that cannot be applied directly to solve real-world problems. In this paper we propose a new set of group-based mutation operators, featuring general operations over disjoint groups, tailored to ensure that all the constraints are respected during the operation to improve efficiency. A comparative analysis of our results with those from previous approaches shows that the proposed algorithm systematically improves them in terms of both quality and processing time, something of crucial relevance since it allows dealing with most large, real-world problems in reasonable time.

Labor Market Policy Decentralization in Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy - Dynamics and Reasons. ACES Working Papers No. 5, 2008

This article argues that welfare-to-work or activation policies, which have been adopted across a range of OECD countries during the last two decades, do not only have led to changes in the substance of the welfare state but also to transformations in its institutional configuration. This institutional transformation includes the spatial reconfiguration of the welfare state, which has given new roles to the supra-national, national, and sub-national levels of government as well as private actors in the management and creation of labor market policies. By bringing institutions into these debates, this article seeks to expand the literature on welfare-to-work and activation as to date authors working on this topic have said very little about the degree, types, and reasons for the spatial re-configuration of welfare-to-work policies across different states. To fill a gap in the literatures on changes in the welfare state and its territorial configuration in particular, we compare trends in the re-configuration of welfare-to-work policies in Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom. We find that there is a cross-national trend, when it comes to the institutional effects of the implementation of activation. These trends bear a tension between decentralization and centralization, as both central and sub-national levels of government have acquired new responsibilities to implement the activation paradigm.

Is the "Dubai model" a new paradigm for growth and investment strategies for oil-based economies? Case study: Eurasia. ACES Working Papers No. 8, 2008

The first part of the paper addresses the theoretical background of economic growth and competitive advantage models. Although there is a whole set of research on a relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth, little has been said on foreign direct investments and national competitive advantage with respect to economic growth of oil and gas abundant countries of Middle East and Central Asia. The second part of our paper introduces the framework of the so-called "Dubai Model" in detail and outlines the key components necessary to develop sustainable comparative advantage for the oil-rich economies. The third part proceeds with the methodology employed to measure the success of the "Dubai Model" in the UAE and in application to other regions. The last part brings the results and investigates the degree to which other oil and gas countries in the region (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran) have adopted the so-called "Dubai Model". It also examines if the Dubai Model is being employed in the Eurasian (Central Asian) oil and gas regions of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The objective is to gauge if the Eurasian economies are employing the traditional growth strategies of oil-rich non-OECD countries in managing their natural resources or are they adopting the newer non-traditional model of economic growth, such as the "Dubai Model."

The finance-welfare state nexus. ACES Cases No. 2013.1

At the height of the financial crisis, the Western welfare state prevented a repeat of the Great Depression. But there were also suggestions that social policy had contributed to the crisis, particularly by promoting households’ access to credit in pursuit of welfare goals. Others claim that it was the withdrawal of state welfare that led to the disaster. Against this background that motivated our interest, we propose a systematic way of assessing the relationship between financial market and public welfare provisions. We use structural vector auto-regression to establish the causal link and its direction. Two hypotheses about this relationship can be inferred from the literature. First, the notion that welfare states ‘decommodify’ livelihoods or that there is an equity-efficiency tradeoff would suggest that welfare states substitute to varying degrees for financial market offers of insurance and savings. By contrast, welfare states may support private interests selectively and/or help markets for households to function better; thus the nexus would be one of complementarity. Our empirical strategy is to spell out the causal mechanisms that can account for a substitutive or complementary relationship and then to see whether advanced econometric techniques find evidence for the existence of either of these mechanisms in six OECD countries. We find complementarity between public welfare (spending and tax subsidies) and life insurance markets for four out of our six countries, notably even for the United States. Substitution between welfare and finance is the more plausible interpretation for France and the Netherlands, which is surprising. Data availability constrains us from testing the implications for the welfare state contribution to the crisis directly but our findings suggest that the welfare state cannot generally be blamed for the financial crisis.

The Grundgesetz After 50 Years: Analyzing Changes in the German Constitution. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 09.3, December 1999

Fifty years after its original drafting, the German constitution has seen its text amended many times. Indeed, among OECD countries, the Grundgesetz has one of the highest rates of constitutional change. This paper analyzes these changes. It does so in a quantitative manner in its first section, before proceeding to ask how the numerous changes can be explained. Three approaches from the legal and political science literature are presented: one emphasizing historical-structural factors, one analyzing changes as constitutional revisionism, and an institutional approach which focuses on the conditions for constitutional amendment. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are then compared and contrasted, before the article concludes with an assessment of the characteristics of Gemuw constitutional policy.

Social Citizenship and Institution Building: EU-Enlargement and the Restructuring of Welfare States in East Central Europe. CES Germany & Europe Working Paper, No. 01.2, April 2001

With the EU-enlargement process well underway, this paper focuses on social citizenship as a conceptual frame for analyzing the restructuring of social institutions in applicant countries in East Central Europe. So far, comparative welfare state analysis has concentrated mainly on the developed economies of the OECD-countries; there is little systematic analytical work on the transitions in post-communist Europe. Theoretically, this paper builds on comparative welfare state analysis as well as on new institutionalism. The initial hypothesis is built on the assumption that emerging patterns of social support and social security diverge from the typology described in the comparative welfare state literature inasmuch as the transformation of postcommunist societies is distinctly different from the building of welfare states in Europe. The paper argues that institutionbuilding is shaped by and embedded in the process of European integration and part of governance in the EU. Anticipating full membership in the European Union, the applicant countries have to adapt to the rules and regulations of the EU, including the "social acquis." Therefore, framing becomes an important feature of institutional changes. The paper seeks to identify distinct patterns and problems of the institutionalization of social citizenship.

Institutions and Growth in Europe. CEPS Working Document No. 421, April 2016

This paper provides empirical evidence in support of the view that the quality of institutions is an important determinant of long-term growth of European countries. When also taking into account the initial level of GDP per capita and government debt, cross-country institutional differences can explain to a great extent the relative long-term GDP performance of European countries. It also shows that an initial government debt level above a threshold (e.g. 60-70%) coupled with institutional quality below the EU average tends to be associated with particularly poor long-term real growth performance. Interestingly, the detrimental effect of high debt levels on long-term growth seems cushioned by the presence of very sound institutions. This might be because good institutions help to alleviate the debt problem in various ways, e.g. by ensuring sufficient fiscal consolidation in the longer-run, allowing for better use of government expenditures and promoting sustainable growth, social fairness and more efficient tax administration. The quality of national institutions seems to enhance the long-term GDP performance across a large sample of countries, also including OECD countries outside Europe. The paper offers some evidence that, in the presence of good institutions, conditions for catching-up seem generally good also for euro-area and fixed exchange rate countries. Looking at sub-groupings, it seems that sound institutions may be particularly important for long-term growth in the countries where the exchange rate tool is no longer available (and where also sovereign debt is high), and less so in the countries with flexible exchange rate regimes. However, this result is preliminary and requires further research. The empirical findings on the importance of institutions are robust to various measures of output growth, different measures of institutional indicators, different sample sizes, different country groupings and to the inclusion of additional control variables. Overall, the results tend to support the call for structural reforms in general and reforms enhancing the efficiency of public administration and regulation, the rule of law and the fight against rent-seeking and corruption in particular.

Políticas de salvamento e risco bancário em período de crise

Esta tese analisa, entre 2005 e 2013, o impacto das políticas governamentais de resgate sobre o risco do setor bancário nos países da OCDE. Primeiro, em linha com a hipótese de moral hazard, verifica-se que instituições financeiras com expectativa elevada de bailout, assumem riscos mais elevados do que as demais. Segundo, constata-se que, em períodos normais, garantias de socorro às grandes instituições distorcem a competição no setor e incrementa o risco das demais. Durante a crise, entretanto, mostra-se que elevações na expectativa de resgate dos concorrentes de uma instituição, à medida que representa uma redução em sua chance de eventual socorro governamental, diminuem sua tomada de riscos. Adicionalmente, em período de crise também é evidenciado que: reduções na capacidade financeira dos países estão associadas a menor assunção de riscos; em média, o aumento na tomada de riscos é maior nos países com menor spread de Credit Default Swap.

Computerizing the welfare state: An international comparison of computerization in social security

Although computer technology is central to the operation of the modern welfare state, there has been little analysis of its role or of the factors shaping the way in which it is used. Using data generated by expert informants from 13 OECD countries, this paper provides an indicative comparison of the aims of computerization in national social security systems over a 15-year period from 1985 to 2000. The paper seeks to identify and explain patterns in the data and outlines and examines four hypotheses. Building on social constructivist accounts of technology, the first three hypotheses attribute variations in the aims of computerization to different welfare state regimes, forms of capitalism, and structures of public administration. The fourth hypothesis, which plays down the importance of social factors, assumes that computerization is adopted as a means of improving operational efficiency and generating expenditure savings. The findings suggest that, in all 13 countries, computerization was adopted in the expectation that it would lead to increased productivity and higher standards of performance, thus providing most support for the fourth hypothesis. However, variations between countries suggest that the sociopolitical values associated with different welfare state regimes have also had some effect in shaping the ways in which computer technology has been used in national social security systems.

Comparing the conditions for small business and entrepreneurship in Sweden and Australia: Lessons for the European Charter for Small Enterprises

A growing body of literature is concerned with explaining cross-national performance of small business and entrepreneurs in advanced economies. This literature has considered a range of policy and institutional variables which create an environment supportive of small firms and entrepreneurial activities including macroeconomic variables such as taxation, labour market regulation, social security and income policy; regulatory factors such as establishment legislation, bankruptcy policy, administrative burdens, compliance costs, deregulation and competition policy; and cultural factors such as social and cultural norms that support entrepreneurship. However, this literature has not always distinguished between the policy environment of small firms operating in different industry sectors. The purpose of this paper is to examine the institutional and policy environment of small firms in knowledge intensive sectors. The characteristics of the business environment of particular relevance to knowledge intensive firms are somewhat different from the conditions for entrepreneurship and small business success more generally. This paper compares the science, technology and industry infrastructure of Australia, Denmark, Sweden with other OECD countries. The purpose of the paper is to identify cross-national differences in the business environment of small knowledge intensive firms. The paper seeks to explore whether particular institutional environments appear to be more supportive of small firms in knowledge intensive sectors.

Differential gains from Business Link support and advice:a treatment effects approach

The provision of advisory support to small firms is almost ubiquitous in OECD countries, although it is organised in different ways and is justified on slightly different grounds. In England publicly supported advisory services are provided through the Business Link (BL) network. Here, we consider two questions: what sort of companies receive advisory support from BL; and, what types of firms benefit most from that support? Our analysis is based on a telephone survey of 2000 firms, around half of which had received intensive assistance from BL between April and October 2003. Probit analysis suggests that the probability of receiving assistance was greater among younger businesses, those with larger numbers of directors in the firm, and those with more gender diversity among the firm's leadership team. Our business-growth models suggest that BL intensive assistance was having a positive effect on employment growth in 2003. BL had a positive but insignificant impact on sales growth over the period. Employment growth effects tend to be larger where firms have a management and organisational structure, which is more conducive to absorbing and making use of external advice. The analysis suggests that BL might increase its impact through targeting these larger, more export-orientated, businesses. Employment growth effects differ little, however, depending on either the ethnic or the gender diversity of the leadership team.

Does the motivation for foreign direct investment affect productivity spillovers to the domestic sector?

There is increasing empirical and theoretical evidence that foreign direct investment (FDI) may be motivated not by the desire to exploit some competitive advantage possessed by multinationals, but to access the technology of host economy firms. Using a panel of FDI flows across OECD countries and manufacturing sectors between 1984 and 1995, we test whether these contrasting motivations influence the effects that FDI has on domestic total factor productivity. The distinction between technology-exploiting FDI (TEFDI) and technology-sourcing FDI (TSFDI) is made using R&D intensity differentials between host and source sectors. The hypothesis that the motivation for FDI has an effect on total factor productivity spillovers is supported: TEFDI has a net positive effect, while TSFDI has a net negative effect. These net effects are explained in terms of the offsetting influences of productivity spillovers and market stealing effects induced by incoming multinationals.

Openness and economic growth

The themes of this thesis are that international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are closely related and that they have varying impacts on economic growth in countries at different stages of development. The thesis consists of three empirical studies. The first one examines the causal relationship between FDI and trade in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries/regions over the period 1984-98. The specific feature of the study is that econometric techniques designed specially for panel data are applied to test for unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development for China. The growth of China’s imports causes growth in inward FDI from a home country/region, which in turn causes the growth of exports from China to the home country/region. The growth of exports causes the growth of imports. This virtuous procedure is the result of China’s policy of opening to the outside world. China has been encouraging export-oriented FDI and reducing trade barriers. Such policy instruments should be further encouraged in order to enhance economic growth. In the second study, an extended gravity model is constructed to identify the main causes of recent trade growth in OECD countries. The specific features include (a) the explicit introduction of R&D and FDI as two important explanatory variables into an augmented gravity equation; (b) the adoption of a panel data approach, and (c) the careful treatment of endogeneity. The main findings are that the levels and similarities of market size, domestic R&D stock and inward FDI stock are positively related to the volume of bilateral trade, while the geographical distance, exchange rate and relative factor endowments, has a negative impact. These findings lend support to new trade, FDI and economic growth theories. The third study evaluates the impact of openness on growth in different country groups. This research distinguishes itself from many existing studies in three aspects: first, both trade and FDI are included in the measurement of openness. Second, countries are divided' into three groups according to their development stages to compare the roles of FDI and trade in different groups. Third, the possible problems of endogeneity and multicollinearity of FDI and trade are carefully dealt with in a panel data setting. The main findings are that FDI and trade are both beneficial to a country's development. However, trade has positive effects on growth in all country groups but FDI has positive effects on growth only in the country groups which have had moderate development. The findings suggest FDI and trade may affect growth under different conditions.

Breaking down the non-normality of daily stock returns

This paper investigates whether the non-normality typically observed in daily stock-market returns could arise because of the joint existence of breaks and GARCH effects. It proposes a data-driven procedure to credibly identify the number and timing of breaks and applies it on the benchmark stock-market indices of 27 OECD countries. The findings suggest that a substantial element of the observed deviations from normality might indeed be due to the co-existence of breaks and GARCH effects. However, the presence of structural changes is found to be the primary reason for the non-normality and not the GARCH effects. Also, there is still some remaining excess kurtosis that is unlikely to be linked to the specification of the conditional volatility or the presence of breaks. Finally, an interesting sideline result implies that GARCH models have limited capacity in forecasting stock-market volatility.