Forecasting and risk analysis applied to management planning and control

The aim of this research was to improve the quantitative support to project planning and control principally through the use of more accurate forecasting for which new techniques were developed. This study arose from the observation that in most cases construction project forecasts were based on a methodology (c.1980) which relied on the DHSS cumulative cubic cost model and network based risk analysis (PERT). The former of these, in particular, imposes severe limitations which this study overcomes. Three areas of study were identified, namely growth curve forecasting, risk analysis and the interface of these quantitative techniques with project management. These fields have been used as a basis for the research programme. In order to give a sound basis for the research, industrial support was sought. This resulted in both the acquisition of cost profiles for a large number of projects and the opportunity to validate practical implementation. The outcome of this research project was deemed successful both in theory and practice. The new forecasting theory was shown to give major reductions in projection errors. The integration of the new predictive and risk analysis technologies with management principles, allowed the development of a viable software management aid which fills an acknowledged gap in current technology.

Computer integrated manufacturing control

Many manufacturing companies have long endured the problems associated with the presence of `islands of automation'. Due to rapid computerisation, `islands' such as Computer-Aided Design (CAD), Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM), Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) and Material Requirement Planning (MRP), have emerged, and with a lack of co-ordination, often lead to inefficient performance of the overall system. The main objective of Computer-Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) technology is to form a cohesive network between these islands. Unfortunately, a commonly used approach - the centralised system approach, has imposed major technical constraints and design complication on development strategies. As a consequence, small companies have experienced difficulties in participating in CIM technology. The research described in this thesis has aimed to examine alternative approaches to CIM system design. Through research and experimentation, the cellular system approach, which has existed in the form of manufacturing layouts, has been found to simplify the complexity of an integrated manufacturing system, leading to better control and far higher system flexibility. Based on the cellular principle, some central management functions have also been distributed to smaller cells within the system. This concept is known, specifically, as distributed planning and control. Through the development of an embryo cellular CIM system, the influence of both the cellular principle and the distribution methodology have been evaluated. Based on the evidence obtained, it has been concluded that distributed planning and control methodology can greatly enhance cellular features within an integrated system. Both the cellular system approach and the distributed control concept will therefore make significant contributions to the design of future CIM systems, particularly systems designed with respect to small company requirements.

A comparison of U.S. and Japanese management systems and their transferability to Singapore industry

This research compares U.S. and Japanese management systems and evaluates their transferability to the Singaporean manufacturing industry. The objectives were:- a) To determine the effectiveness of U.S. and Japanese management systems when applied to Singapore. b) Determine the extent of transferability of U.S. and Japanese management systems to Singapore. c) Survey general problems ecountered in the application of U.S. and Japanese management systems to the Singapore industry. The study using questionnaire survey and interviews covered a total of eighty companies from four groups of firms in four industrial sectors comprising of U.S. and Japanese subsidiaries based in Singapore and their respective parent companies. Data from the questionnaires and interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, management philosophy, management functions/practices, management effectiveness, and firm productivity. Two-way analysis of variance was used to analyse the questionnaire data. The analysis of the perceptual data from the questionnaire survey and interviews suggested that both U.S. and Japanese parent companies performed better in almost all the management variables studied when compared to their subsidiaries in Singapore. U.S. subsidiaries have less difficulty in adjusting to the Singapore environmental conditions and obtained better results than the Japanese subsidiaries in management functions/practices and management philosophy than the U.S. subsidiaries. In addition, the firm productivity (in terms of labour and capital productivity) of U.S. subsidiaries in Singapore was found to be higher than those of the Japanese subsidiaries. It was found that the Japanese parent companies returned the highest score among the four groups of firms in all the four industrial sectors for all the four management variables (i.e. environmental conditions, management philosophy, management functions/practices, and management effectiveness) surveyed using questionnaires. In contrast, the average score for Japanese subsidiaries in Singapore was generally the lowest among the four groups of firms. Thus the results of this study suggest that the transfer of U.S. management system into the Singapore industry is more successful than the Japanese management system. The problems encountered in the application of U.S. and Japanese management in Singapore were identified and discussed by the study. General recommendations for the Singaporean manufacturing industry were then made based on the findings of the questionnaire survey and interview analysis.

Introduction : the role of quality, production and technological innovation in improving competitive performance

Quality, production and technological innovation management rank among the most important matters of concern to modern manufacturing organisations. They can provide companies with the decisive means of gaining a competitive advantage, especially within industries where there is an increasing similarity in product design and manufacturing processes. The papers in this special issue of International Journal of Technology Management have all been selected as examples of how aspects of quality, production and technological innovation can help to improve competitive performance. Most are based on presentations made at the UK Operations Management Association's Sixth International Conference held at Aston University at which the theme was 'Getting Ahead Through Technology and People'. At the conference itself over 80 papers were presented by authors from 15 countries around the world. Among the many topics addressed within the conference theme, technological innovation, quality and production management emerged as attracting the greatest concern and interest of delegates, particularly those from industry. For any new initiative to be implemented successfully, it should be led from the top of the organization. Achieving the desired level of commitment from top management can, however, be a difficulty. In the first paper of this issue, Mackness investigates this question by explaining how systems thinking can help. In the systems approach, properties such as 'emergence', 'hierarchy', 'commnication' and 'control' are used to assist top managers in preparing for change. Mackness's paper is then complemented by Iijima and Hasegawa's contribution in which they investigate the development of Quality Information Management (QIM) in Japan. They present the idea of a Design Review and demonstrate how it can be used to trace and reduce quality-related losses. The next paper on the subject of quality is by Whittle and colleagues. It relates to total quality and the process of culture change within organisations. Using the findings of investigations carried out in a number of case study companies, they describe four generic models which have been identified as characterising methods of implementing total quality within existing organisation cultures. Boaden and Dale's paper also relates to the management of quality, but looks specifically at the construction industry where it has been found there is still some confusion over the role of Quality Assurance (QA) and Total Quality Management (TQM). They describe the results of a questionnaire survey of forty companies in the industry and compare them to similar work carried out in other industries. Szakonyi's contribution then completes this group of papers which all relate specifically to the question of quality. His concern is with the two ways in which R&D or engineering managers can work on improving quality. The first is by improving it in the laboratory, while the second is by working with other functions to improve quality in the company. The next group of papers in this issue all address aspects of production management. Umeda's paper proposes a new manufacturing-oriented simulation package for production management which provides important information for both design and operation of manufacturing systems. A simulation for production strategy in a Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) environment is also discussed. This paper is then followed by a contribution by Tanaka and colleagues in which they consider loading schedules for manufacturing orders in a Material Requirements Planning (MRP) environment. They compare mathematical programming with a knowledge-based approach, and comment on their relative effectiveness for different practical situations. Engstrom and Medbo's paper then looks at a particular aspect of production system design, namely the question of devising group working arrangements for assembly with new product structures. Using the case of a Swedish vehicle assembly plant where long cycle assembly work has been adopted, they advocate the use of a generally applicable product structure which can be adapted to suit individual local conditions. In the last paper of this particular group, Tay considers how automation has affected the production efficiency in Singapore. Using data from ten major industries he identifies several factors which are positively correlated with efficiency, with capital intensity being of greatest interest to policy makers. The two following papers examine the case of electronic data interchange (EDI) as a means of improving the efficiency and quality of trading relationships. Banerjee and Banerjee consider a particular approach to material provisioning for production systems using orderless inventory replenishment. Using the example of a single supplier and multiple buyers they develop an analytical model which is applicable for the exchange of information between trading partners using EDI. They conclude that EDI-based inventory control can be attractive from economic as well as other standpoints and that the approach is consistent with and can be instrumental in moving towards just-in-time (JIT) inventory management. Slacker's complementary viewpoint on EDI is from the perspective of the quality relation-ship between the customer and supplier. Based on the experience of Lucas, a supplier within the automotive industry, he concludes that both banks and trading companies must take responsibility for the development of payment mechanisms which satisfy the requirements of quality trading. The three final papers of this issue relate to technological innovation and are all country based. Berman and Khalil report on a survey of US technological effectiveness in the global economy. The importance of education is supported in their conclusions, although it remains unclear to what extent the US government can play a wider role in promoting technological innovation and new industries. The role of technology in national development is taken up by Martinsons and Valdemars who examine the case of the former Soviet Union. The failure to successfully infuse technology into Soviet enterprises is seen as a factor in that country's demise, and it is anticipated that the newly liberalised economies will be able to encourage greater technological creativity. This point is then taken up in Perminov's concluding paper which looks in detail at Russia. Here a similar analysis is made of the concluding paper which looks in detail at Russia. Here a similar analysis is made of the Soviet Union's technological decline, but a development strategy is also presented within the context of the change from a centralised to a free market economy. The papers included in this special issue of the International Journal of Technology Management each represent a unique and particular contribution to their own specific area of concern. Together, however, they also argue or demonstrate the general improvements in competitive performance that can be achieved through the application of modern principles and practice to the management of quality, production and technological innovation.

Developing an intervention to equip nurses for acute life threatening events (ALTEs) in hospital:a phenomenological approach to healthcare research

Objectives: To understand staff's experiences of acute life threatening events (ALTEs) in a pediatric hospital setting. These data will inform an intervention to equip nurses with clinical and emotional skills for dealing with ALTEs. Method: A mixed design was used in the broader research program; this paper focuses on phenomenon-focused interviews analyzed using interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA). Results: Emerging themes included staff's relationships with patients and the impact of personhood on their ability to perform competently in an emergency. More experienced nurses described "automatic" competence generated through increased exposure to ALTEs and were able to recognize "fumbling and shaking" as a normal stress response. Designating a role was significant to staff experience of effectiveness. Key to nurses' learning experience was reflection and identifying experiences as "teachable moments." Findings were considered alongside existing theories of self-efficacy, reflective thought, and advocacy inquiry to create an experiential learning intervention involving a series of clinical and role-related scenarios. Conclusion: The phenomenological work facilitated an in-depth reading of experience. It accentuated the importance of exposure to ALTEs giving nurses experiential knowledge to prepare them for the impact of these events. Challenges included bracketing the personhood of child patients, shifting focus to clinical tasks during the pressured demands of managing an ALTE, normalizing the physiological stress response, and the need for a forum and structure for reflection and learning. An intervention will be designed to provide experiential learning and encourage nurses to realize and benefit from their embodied knowledge.

On Connection between Characterestic Functions and the Caratheodori Class Functions

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 47A65, 45S78.

Participative Budgeting and Participant Motivation: A Review of the Literature

In their discussion - Participative Budgeting and Participant Motivation: A Review of the Literature - by Frederick J. Demicco, Assistant Professor, School of Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Management, The Pennsylvania State University and Steven J. Dempsey, Fulton F. Galer, Martin Baker, Graduate Assistants, College of Business at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, the authors initially observe: ���In recent years behavioral literature has stressed the importance of participation In goal-setting by those most directly affected by those goals. The common postulate is that greater participation by employees in the various management functions, especially the planning function, will lead to improved motivation, performance, coordination, and functional behavior. The authors analyze this postulate as it relates to the budgeting process and discuss whether or not participative budgeting has a significant positive impact on the motivations of budget participants.��� In defining the concept of budgeting, the authors offer: ���Budgeting is usually viewed as encompassing the preparation and adoption of a detailed financial operating plan������ In furthering that statement they also furnish that budgeting���s focus is to influence, in a positive way, how managers plan and coordinate the activities of a property in a way that will enhance their own performance. In essence, framing an organization within its described boundaries, and realizing its established goals. The authors will have you know, to control budget is to control operations. What kind of parallels can be drawn between the technical methods and procedures of budgeting, and managerial behavior? ���In an effort to answer this question, Ronen and Livingstone have suggested that a fourth objective of budgeting exists, that of motivation,��� say the authors with attribution. ���The managerial function of motivation is manipulative in nature.��� Demicco, Dempsey, Galer, and Baker attempt to quantify motivation as a psychological premise using the expectancy theory, which encompasses empirical support, intuitive appeal, and ease of application to the budgetary process. They also present you with House's Path-Goal model; essentially a mathematics type formula designed to gauge motivation. You really need to see this. The views of Argyris are also explored in particular detail. Although, the Argyris study was primarily aimed at manufacturing firms, and the effects on line-supervisors of the manufacturing budgets which were used to control and evaluate their performance, its application is relevant to the hospitality industry. As the title suggests, other notables in the field of behavioral motivation theory, and participation are also referenced. ���Behavioral theory has been moving away from models of purported general applicability toward contingency models that are suited for particular situations,��� say the authors in closing. ���It is conceivable that some time in the future, contingency models will make possible the tailoring of budget strategies to individual budget holder personalities.���

Leveraging symbiotic relationships for emulation of computer networks

The lack of analytical models that can accurately describe large-scale networked systems makes empirical experimentation indispensable for understanding complex behaviors. Research on network testbeds for testing network protocols and distributed services, including physical, emulated, and federated testbeds, has made steady progress. Although the success of these testbeds is undeniable, they fail to provide: 1) scalability, for handling large-scale networks with hundreds or thousands of hosts and routers organized in different scenarios, 2) flexibility, for testing new protocols or applications in diverse settings, and 3) inter-operability, for combining simulated and real network entities in experiments. This dissertation tackles these issues in three different dimensions. First, we present SVEET, a system that enables inter-operability between real and simulated hosts. In order to increase the scalability of networks under study, SVEET enables time-dilated synchronization between real hosts and the discrete-event simulator. Realistic TCP congestion control algorithms are implemented in the simulator to allow seamless interactions between real and simulated hosts. SVEET is validated via extensive experiments and its capabilities are assessed through case studies involving real applications. Second, we present PrimoGENI, a system that allows a distributed discrete-event simulator, running in real-time, to interact with real network entities in a federated environment. PrimoGENI greatly enhances the flexibility of network experiments, through which a great variety of network conditions can be reproduced to examine what-if questions. Furthermore, PrimoGENI performs resource management functions, on behalf of the user, for instantiating network experiments on shared infrastructures. Finally, to further increase the scalability of network testbeds to handle large-scale high-capacity networks, we present a novel symbiotic simulation approach. We present SymbioSim, a testbed for large-scale network experimentation where a high-performance simulation system closely cooperates with an emulation system in a mutually beneficial way. On the one hand, the simulation system benefits from incorporating the traffic metadata from real applications in the emulation system to reproduce the realistic traffic conditions. On the other hand, the emulation system benefits from receiving the continuous updates from the simulation system to calibrate the traffic between real applications. Specific techniques that support the symbiotic approach include: 1) a model downscaling scheme that can significantly reduce the complexity of the large-scale simulation model, resulting in an efficient emulation system for modulating the high-capacity network traffic between real applications; 2) a queuing network model for the downscaled emulation system to accurately represent the network effects of the simulated traffic; and 3) techniques for reducing the synchronization overhead between the simulation and emulation systems.

Avalia����o de pol��tica p��blica: o ProInfo e sua gest��o no munic��pio de Parnamirim (2009-2012)

The dissertation assesses aspects of the management of IT in Education Program (ProInfo), in the municipality of Parnamirim-RN. Checks as their management functions, with the following objectives: a) Examine whether the objectives of the activities related to teachers' program are being implemented according to the official documents, b) examine if there is a monitoring program activities as the activities of teachers c) Identify whether teachers develop activities and environments using the technological resources of the internet. The research brings a central issue: How ProInfo is subsidizing the activities of the teachers involved in the program to achieve their goals effectively? As a central hypothesis of this work, to be a general north to the research, we have: the ProInfo establishes a fragile and discontinuous link between the management of the activities of teachers and the goals that he sets. The hypothesis was validated by the analysis of data from field research, when we encounter a series of limiting aspects of program effectiveness at the municipal level. This research was undertaken with managers of state and municipal schools and teachers, using a sample of four schools Parnamirim-RN, in order to include some aspects of program management at the municipal level and effectiveness goals proposed, focusing on teachers who participated in the training. The methodological process consisted of literature review, interviews and documentary analysis carried to the organs responsible for ProInfo statewide (UNDIME/RN ) and municipal level, next to the Municipal Education Parnamirim-RN. Based on data collected from empirical field research, it was found that the ProInfo lacks periodic reviews by the governing bodies of the program, about the actions developed through appropriate instruments, which enable a more realistic view of the results of the program ex post (during or after deployment)

Indicador de inconformidades em instala����es el��tricas de baixa tens��o

With the progress of devices technology, generation and use of energy ways, power quality parameters start to influence more significantly the various kinds of power consumers. Currently, there are many types of devices that analyze power quality. However, there is a need to create devices, and perform measurements and calculate parameters, find flaws, suggest changes, and to support the management of the installation. In addition, you must ensure that such devices are accessible. To maintain this balance, one magnitude measuring method should be used which does not require great resources processing or memory. The work shows that application of the Goertzel algorithm, compared with the commonly used FFT allows measurements to be made using much less hardware resources, available memory space to implement management functions. The first point of the work is the research of troubles that are more common for low voltage consumers. Then we propose the functional diagram indicate what will be measured, calculated, what problems will be detected and that solutions can be found. Through the Goertzel algorithm simulation using Scilab, is possible to calculate frequency components of a distorted signal with satisfactory results. Finally, the prototype is assembled and tests are carried out by adjusting the parameters necessary for one to maintain a reliable device without increasing its cost.

As esta����es ferrovi��rias do Tri��ngulo Mineiro e Alto Parana��ba e suas interfaces: hist��ria e conserva����o

The implementation of the railway in Tri��ngulo Mineiro and Alto Parana��ba helped to develop the area and connexion with other states: S��o Paulo, Goi��s and Mato Grosso. The railway used to transport people and goods throughout many train stations in urban and rural areas and some major railroad complexes. There were many factors that led to the decline and abandonment of these properties: governmental policies which were in favour of road transportation and automotive industry, the replacement of the steam locomotive for electric and electric-diesel locomotives, changing part of the railway plan, removal of railways and loss of function of the buildings, extinction of passenger trains, which led the stations to lose its main purpose: people transport. 53% of the stations built inside the study area were demolished and most of them are in rural areas. There are several situations: stations on a precarious conservation state, most of them in the city s rural area, stations being used in urban and rural areas with new uses, stations working with cargo and goods transportation. The stations in Tri��ngulo Mineiro and Alto Parana��ba area in Minas Gerais are the object of this dissertation, wherein the main interest lies on the stations that are in operation, 21 buildings, seeking to verify their conservation state, their agents and role in preserving the train memory. Maps, charts and tables were made for this collection s understanding, having visited the stations that are listed by the cultural heritage and the ones that are in operation with new functions. Field records were made allowing the understanding of these properties in operation. It is observed that only the buildings listing, despite ensuring the non-demolition, does not help on the use and preservation of these stations, because there are some buildings that have this protection level, but are abandoned and in disrepair. The use of these stations by a train company, operating with cargo and goods transportation do not also guarantee the buildings preservation, as they are not treated with any preservation interest, their maintenance are precarious. The using by these companies are various, however, only a few stations have internal spaces dedicated to the railroad memory. Most of the stations did not have preservation projects with architects and specialists participation and the major concern, during maintenance process, is on the building s external part. The stations conservation begins on the local government interest, that preserve these properties, most of them are in urban areas, the major challenge is on their using definition and occupancy, especially in the countryside, wherein the buildings uses must be sustainable, as regards the appreciation and management of this heritage.

Generations and intention to leave current job : Belgian nurses in the workplace

This master thesis aims to identify work-related factors making Belgian nurses consider leaving their job voluntary and to compare the work-related factors across different generations. The purpose of this master thesis has a descriptive nature of research. The research approach chosen is a deductive approach and the research design chosen is a quantitative research design. Cluster sampling in combination with simple random sampling was used as sampling technique. 128 nurses were surveyed from April to May 2016. Nurses who reported to leave the organization due to retirement reasons, temporary employment contract or maternity leave were excluded from the study as this study investigates the voluntary turnover intention. A total of 68 nurses were included in the study which indicates an overall response rate of 53 %. Numerous of the findings in this master thesis are consistent with previous studies on turnover intention of different generations in other western-countries than Belgium. The work-related factor workload was most often reported by Belgian nurses with no intention to leave their job. Belgian nurses with an intention to leave their job indicated most often the work-related factor (non-)financial benefits. The generation-specific findings indicated both similarities and differences between the work-related factors selected. It was observed that Baby Boomers with an intention to leave their job selected most often variables related to the work-related factors (non-)financial benefits, supportive organization and workload. The variable lack of recognition appeared among Baby Boomers with an intention and no intention to leave their job. Surprisingly was the often selected variables lack of direct and/clear feedback on performances and unsupportive supervisor among Baby Boomers with professional turnover intention. Further, it was observed that Generation Xers with an intention to leave their job selected most often variables related to the work-related factors supportive organization, communication, (non-)financial benefits, work content and workload. The variables inadequate opportunity for advancement/professional growth and imbalance work-life appeared among Generation Xers with an intention and no intention to leave their job. Generation Yers with an intention to leave their job selected most frequently variables related to the work-related factors (non-)financial benefits, workload and commitment. The variables inadequate salary and opportunities elsewhere appeared among nurses with an intention and no intention to leave their job. Surprisingly was the often selected variable inadequate salary among Generation Yers with professional turnover intention.

Qualidade de vida no trabalho: o caso de enfermeiros dos Hospitais P��blicos Walfredo Gurgel e Santa Catarina

The theoretical foundation of this study addresses the construct Quality of Worklife involving pro-active reading organizations in face to social developments of the working class, which is a challenge to the people s management. In this sense, as a contribution to the studies of quality of worklife (QOWL), this study addresses the quality of lifework of nurses at Walfredo Gurgel and Santa Catarina public hospitals. The goal is to make a diagnosis about the quality of lifework of these employees taking as a basis dimensions and performance indicators shown in the model by Fernandes (1996). The research is characterized by field, in a descriptive way. This survey comprised 75 nurses, with 49 by Walfredo Gurgel hospital and 26 by Santa Catarina one. The data collection was carried out through structured questionnaire. The questions were processed in the software Statistic 6.0, with factor analysis and multiple regressions, after the systematization of data. As a result, the most nurses in hospitals are dissatisfied with the quality of lifework, with the highest incidence in Santa Catarina hospital. The variable occupational health assessment was more negative in the hospital Santa Catarina one, whereas in Walfredo Gurgel, was family assistance. The variable guarantee of employment was more positive assessment in two hospitals without, though, implying in high importance on QOWL of nurses. The factor structure and decision showed greater sensitivity to explain the QOWL of nurses, joining 17 variables from 40 of the model. The factor working conditions, joining 6 variables, showed the second highest sensitivity. The compensation factor, gathering 5 variables, showed the third highest sensitivity while image and health factors showed minor importance

Discrete-event Simulation and Optimization to Improve the Performance of a Healthcare System

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Satisfa����o profissional versus metodologia de trabalho

Projeto de Gradua����o apresentado �� Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obten����o do grau de licenciado em Enfermagem